Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 09/20/16, through Week 2.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

This preseason simulation accounts for the following major injuries and suspensions:

  • Dallas DVOA is reduced by 11.5% in Weeks 3-6 due to the injury to Tony Romo. In 25 percent of simulations, Romo returns in Week 8. In 25 percent of simulations, Romo returns in Week 10. In 25 percent of simulations, Romo returns in Week 12. And in 25 percent of simulations, Romo does not return all season. (If Dak Prescott plays well again in Week 3, this will be reduced.)
  • Kansas City DVOA is reduced by 2.0% in Weeks 3-6 due to Justin Houston starting the season on PUP.
  • New England DVOA is reduced by 23.0% in Weeks 3-4 due to suspension of Tom Brady and the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo.
  • Pittsburgh DVOA is reduced by 4.0% in Week 3 due to suspension of Le'Veon Bell.

 

NFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NYG 2-0 -3.6% 8.8 8.5% 9.1% 9.9% 7.8% 7.5% 7.7% 35.2% 17.5% 15.2% 50.4% 3.8%
PHI 2-0 0.2% 8.8 8.0% 9.1% 9.2% 8.6% 6.7% 7.4% 34.9% 17.1% 14.2% 49.0% 10.1%
DAL 1-1 -3.8% or 7.7% 8.3 5.0% 6.2% 7.2% 6.6% 7.1% 7.6% 25.1% 11.3% 14.7% 39.8% 10.0%
WAS 0-2 -10.3% 5.9 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 2.8% 4.8% 1.5% 4.5% 9.3% -6.4%

NFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
MIN 2-0 -1.0% 9.0 9.6% 9.1% 8.3% 6.7% 9.0% 8.5% 33.7% 18.7% 17.5% 51.2% 11.0%
GB 1-1 6.9% 9.0 8.6% 9.0% 7.4% 6.2% 10.1% 9.0% 31.1% 17.5% 19.1% 50.2% -13.9%
DET 1-1 4.4% 8.7 7.6% 8.1% 7.5% 6.2% 8.2% 8.1% 29.4% 15.7% 16.2% 45.6% -8.1%
CHI 0-2 -12.2% 6.2 0.5% 1.2% 1.9% 2.2% 2.1% 3.1% 5.8% 1.7% 5.2% 11.0% -5.4%

NFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CAR 1-1 10.9% 8.9 9.5% 10.8% 13.5% 16.9% 3.6% 4.4% 50.7% 20.4% 8.0% 58.7% 13.3%
TB 1-1 -8.4% 7.2 1.5% 2.9% 5.4% 9.5% 2.3% 3.7% 19.3% 4.5% 5.9% 25.3% -18.8%
ATL 1-1 -5.3% 7.1 1.8% 2.8% 4.3% 7.4% 2.6% 3.8% 16.3% 4.6% 6.5% 22.7% 8.7%
NO 0-2 -2.3% 6.5 0.9% 1.9% 3.6% 7.3% 1.5% 2.6% 13.7% 2.8% 4.1% 17.8% -5.1%

NFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
SEA 1-1 23.0% 9.9 17.6% 12.5% 7.9% 4.9% 13.9% 9.8% 42.9% 30.1% 23.6% 66.5% -13.0%
ARI 1-1 20.2% 9.7 16.9% 12.0% 8.2% 4.6% 13.7% 9.8% 41.8% 28.9% 23.5% 65.2% 11.7%
LARM 1-1 -2.8% 7.4 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 1.8% 6.3% 7.0% 9.1% 5.0% 13.3% 22.5% 9.1%
SF 1-1 -10.5% 6.8 1.1% 1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 3.6% 4.8% 6.2% 2.8% 8.4% 14.6% -7.0%

AFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 2-0 -7.8% or 15.2% 10.1 17.0% 16.6% 18.1% 15.7% 3.4% 4.0% 67.5% 33.6% 7.4% 74.9% -0.8%
NYJ 1-1 -2.3% 7.6 2.0% 3.5% 6.1% 7.3% 3.6% 5.1% 19.0% 5.5% 8.7% 27.6% 10.0%
BUF 0-2 -5.1% 6.7 0.7% 1.5% 3.2% 4.0% 2.1% 3.3% 9.4% 2.1% 5.4% 14.8% -12.1%
MIA 0-2 -14.2% 5.8 0.3% 0.6% 1.3% 2.1% 1.4% 2.2% 4.2% 0.9% 3.6% 7.8% -1.0%

AFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 2-0 14.1% or 18.1% 10.8 27.1% 14.1% 7.8% 3.4% 16.4% 9.3% 52.5% 41.3% 25.6% 78.2% 4.9%
BAL 2-0 10.1% 9.9 15.2% 9.5% 6.0% 2.7% 19.2% 12.6% 33.4% 24.8% 31.8% 65.3% 8.3%
CIN 1-1 4.3% 8.7 5.4% 4.1% 2.8% 1.4% 15.3% 13.2% 13.7% 9.5% 28.5% 42.2% -7.4%
CLE 0-2 -25.9% 4.6 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 1.8% -1.4%

AFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
HOU 2-0 -7.5% 8.6 5.7% 8.9% 12.0% 16.7% 2.8% 4.3% 43.3% 14.6% 7.1% 50.4% 6.6%
TEN 1-1 -7.5% 7.9 2.3% 5.0% 8.2% 14.0% 2.5% 4.0% 29.6% 7.4% 6.5% 36.1% 11.8%
IND 0-2 -5.1% 6.8 0.9% 2.3% 4.9% 9.9% 1.5% 2.8% 18.0% 3.2% 4.3% 22.2% -10.2%
JAC 0-2 -14.1% 5.9 0.3% 1.0% 2.3% 5.6% 0.8% 1.4% 9.2% 1.3% 2.2% 11.4% -9.0%

AFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DEN 2-0 3.7% 9.2 8.9% 10.8% 8.2% 4.5% 8.9% 10.0% 32.5% 19.8% 19.0% 51.4% 14.5%
KC 1-1 11.3% or 13.3% 9.2 8.0% 11.1% 9.8% 6.6% 8.2% 9.7% 35.6% 19.2% 17.9% 53.5% -11.8%
SD 1-1 2.4% 8.5 4.0% 6.8% 5.7% 3.2% 8.4% 10.4% 19.7% 10.8% 18.8% 38.5% 8.5%
OAK 1-1 -4.0% 7.5 2.2% 3.9% 3.5% 2.7% 5.0% 6.7% 12.2% 6.0% 11.7% 24.0% -11.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win16-0
SEA 33.4%21.1%12.4%0.0%
PIT 38.2%22.9%12.3%0.3%
ARI 30.8%19.0%11.4%0.0%
NE 33.9%18.6%10.0%0.1%
BAL 24.2%12.9%6.4%0.1%
CAR 22.4%11.3%5.7%0.0%
KC 21.1%10.9%5.6%0.0%
GB 17.7%8.4%4.1%0.0%
DEN 17.6%8.2%3.7%0.0%
DET 15.0%6.9%3.2%0.0%
MIN 15.7%6.8%3.0%0.0%
PHI 15.0%6.7%3.0%0.0%
CIN 11.3%5.3%2.5%0.0%
NYG 14.2%5.8%2.3%0.0%
SD 11.2%5.0%2.2%0.0%
HOU 12.1%4.7%1.8%0.0%
DAL 10.3%4.1%1.7%0.0%
NYJ 6.5%2.7%1.1%0.0%
TEN 7.4%2.7%1.1%0.0%
OAK 5.9%2.4%1.0%0.0%
LARM 5.3%2.2%1.0%0.0%
ATL 5.0%2.0%0.9%0.0%
TB 5.2%1.9%0.8%0.0%
NO 3.9%1.6%0.7%0.0%
IND 4.4%1.7%0.7%0.0%
BUF 3.0%1.2%0.5%0.0%
SF 2.7%1.0%0.4%0.0%
WAS 1.7%0.6%0.2%0.0%
CHI 1.8%0.6%0.2%0.0%
JAC 1.7%0.5%0.2%0.0%
MIA 1.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 3 Pick
CLE 23.7% 48.7%
JAC 10.3% 27.3%
MIA 10.1% 27.1%
CHI 8.6% 23.9%
WAS 7.6% 22.1%
BUF 5.6% 17.0%
NO 5.2% 17.0%
SF 4.3% 15.0%
IND 4.3% 14.0%
TB 2.9% 11.3%
ATL 2.7% 10.5%
TEN 2.3% 8.5%
LARM 2.1% 8.4%
OAK 1.9% 7.9%
NYJ 1.9% 7.7%
SD 0.9% 4.3%
DAL 1.0% 4.1%
DET 0.7% 3.4%
HOU 0.5% 2.8%
CAR 0.5% 2.5%
CIN 0.4% 2.4%
NYG 0.4% 2.3%
GB 0.4% 2.2%
MIN 0.3% 1.8%
PHI 0.3% 1.7%
KC 0.3% 1.5%
DEN 0.2% 1.4%
ARI 0.2% 1.0%
SEA 0.1% 0.7%
BAL 0.1% 0.6%
NE 0.1% 0.5%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 5.0%
Super Bowl XLIII Rematch ARI vs PIT 4.4%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 3.9%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 2.2%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 1.9%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 1.7%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 1.5%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 1.5%
Steve Smith Reunion Special CAR vs BAL 1.4%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 1.4%
Super Bowl XXXIX Rematch PHI vs NE 1.3%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 1.1%
Carson Palmer Reunion Special ARI vs CIN 1.0%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 0.9%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.9%
Super Bowl L Rematch CAR vs DEN 0.9%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 0.8%
Super Bowl III Rematch MIN vs KC 0.7%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.7%
Super Bowl XXXII Rematch GB vs DEN 0.7%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.7%
Queen City Challenge CAR vs CIN 0.6%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LARM vs PIT 0.6%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special SEA vs NYJ 0.5%
Todd Bowles Reunion Special ARI vs NYJ 0.5%
DeMarcus Ware Reunion Special DAL vs DEN 0.4%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 0.4%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LARM vs NE 0.4%
2012 Draft Showdown SEA vs IND 0.4%
Mike Zimmer Reunion Special MIN vs CIN 0.3%
Bruce Arians Reunion Special ARI vs IND 0.3%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.3%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs OAK 0.2%
Jersey Shore Bowl PHI vs NYJ 0.2%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.2%
Alex Smith Reunion Special SF vs KC 0.2%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs OAK 0.2%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch SF vs BAL 0.2%
Super Bowl V Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.1%
Exit 16W Bowl NYG vs NYJ 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXIII Rematch ATL vs DEN 0.1%
Jim Caldwell Reunion Special DET vs IND 0.1%
Gus Bradley Reunion Special SEA vs JAC 0.1%
Super Bowl XXIV Rematch SF vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 0.1%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs SD 0.1%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.1%
Super Bowl XXV Rematch NYG vs BUF 0.1%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.1%
Jeff Fisher Reunion Special LARM vs TEN 0.1%
Jay Cutler/John Fox Reunion Special CHI vs DEN 0.1%
2015 Draft Showdown TB vs TEN 0.1%
Bill Walsh Memorial Bowl SF vs CIN 0.1%