Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis



DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 1/25/09, results through Week 20

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current WEIGHTED DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here. WEIGHTED DVOA ratings are adjusted based on which teams sat starters in Week 17.)

Super Bowl Odds

Note: These will be different from the odds posted in the premium section, as they use a simpler formula.

New Orleans: 52.2%
Indianapolis: 47.8%