Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 12/06/16, through Week 13.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

  • The offensive portion of the New England rating uses the offensive DVOA since Tom Brady returned from suspension, then adjusts downward 6.5% due to the injury to Rob Gronkowski.
  • The offensive portion of the Denver rating is penalized 13.0% for the injury to Trevor Siemian in 36 percent of Week 14 simulations and 20 percent of Week 15 simulations.
  • The defensive portion of the Seattle rating is penalized 4.0% due to the injury to Earl Thomas.
  • The defensive portion of the Atlanta rating is penalized 2.0% due to the injury to Desmond Trufant.
  • The defensive portion of the Buffalo rating used here is adjusted to account for the massive outlier performance against an injured Jacoby Brissett in Week 4.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

NFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DAL 11-1 21.6% 13.4 93.3% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 97.7% 96.8% 2.3% 100.0% 0.3%
NYG 8-4 5.0% 9.9 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 53.3% 17.9% 2.3% 2.1% 71.1% 73.5% -4.9%
WAS 6-5-1 9.8% 8.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% 41.5% 41.5% -14.1%
PHI 5-7 15.3% 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 5.5% -8.5%

NFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DET 8-4 -8.3% 9.7 1.3% 10.2% 29.9% 28.1% 2.3% 8.7% 69.5% 11.5% 11.1% 80.6% 23.8%
MIN 6-6 0.4% 8.2 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% 4.6% 5.7% 9.9% 6.3% 0.1% 15.6% 21.9% -18.9%
GB 6-6 3.4% 8.1 0.0% 0.7% 4.2% 19.3% 2.3% 6.8% 24.2% 0.7% 9.1% 33.4% 6.5%
CHI 3-9 -13.0% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%

NFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
ATL 7-5 16.5% 9.7 0.1% 10.5% 36.1% 26.5% 3.8% 8.1% 73.2% 10.6% 11.9% 85.2% -3.4%
TB 7-5 1.0% 8.9 0.1% 2.3% 10.5% 8.5% 8.9% 17.2% 21.3% 2.4% 26.1% 47.4% 23.4%
NO 5-7 5.4% 6.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 4.6% 0.0% 1.2% 5.3% 0.0% 1.2% 6.6% -6.4%
CAR 4-8 -7.5% 5.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -0.5%

NFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
SEA 8-3-1 13.8% 11.1 3.9% 71.8% 15.6% 7.2% 0.1% 0.4% 98.4% 75.7% 0.5% 99.0% 0.3%
ARI 5-6-1 -5.0% 7.2 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 3.3% 1.6% 0.1% 3.9% 5.5% 2.6%
LARM 4-8 -17.4% 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2%
SF 1-11 -25.6% 2.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 10-2 22.5% 12.7 52.4% 44.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.2% 97.5% 96.4% 1.7% 99.2% 0.3%
MIA 7-5 3.8% 9.2 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 4.4% 25.0% 2.5% 1.9% 29.5% 31.9% -25.4%
BUF 6-6 0.7% 8.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 9.9% -11.1%
NYJ 3-9 -33.8% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 7-5 14.3% 9.5 0.0% 1.5% 49.2% 3.4% 0.6% 4.7% 54.1% 1.5% 5.3% 59.4% -3.8%
BAL 7-5 13.3% 8.9 0.1% 1.8% 39.1% 4.0% 0.2% 5.5% 45.0% 1.9% 5.7% 50.7% 10.4%
CIN 4-7-1 0.2% 6.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% -0.7%
CLE 0-12 -38.7% 0.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
TEN 6-6 2.3% 8.2 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 28.2% 0.2% 2.3% 31.5% 0.0% 2.5% 34.0% -4.6%
IND 6-6 -6.3% 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 37.5% 0.0% 0.2% 39.7% 0.0% 0.2% 39.9% 19.1%
HOU 6-6 -25.3% 7.5 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 26.2% 0.0% 0.1% 28.8% 0.0% 0.1% 28.8% -13.5%
JAC 2-10 -17.3% 3.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2%

AFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
OAK 10-2 16.1% 12.2 37.7% 16.3% 0.2% 0.0% 37.8% 7.4% 54.2% 54.0% 45.1% 99.3% 4.9%
KC 9-3 14.8% 11.4 8.2% 33.3% 1.4% 0.0% 41.6% 9.8% 42.9% 41.5% 51.4% 94.3% 9.1%
DEN 8-4 -9.1% or 3.9% 9.7 1.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 14.5% 33.7% 2.9% 2.8% 48.2% 51.1% 18.4%
SD 5-7 1.1% 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% -3.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
DAL 69.0%44.2%23.3%
NE 68.2%40.1%21.9%
SEA 55.4%25.3%12.0%
OAK 45.5%23.5%11.8%
KC 37.0%16.8%8.3%
ATL 26.1%12.2%6.2%
PIT 13.7%6.1%3.0%
BAL 11.6%5.1%2.5%
NYG 11.3%4.6%1.9%
DET 12.9%3.9%1.3%
WAS 6.7%2.8%1.3%
DEN 7.7%2.9%1.2%
TB 7.3%2.8%1.1%
GB 5.6%2.1%0.9%
TEN 4.9%1.8%0.8%
MIA 4.6%1.8%0.7%
IND 4.3%1.3%0.5%
MIN 2.9%1.1%0.4%
PHI 1.0%0.5%0.3%
NO 1.2%0.5%0.2%
BUF 1.0%0.3%0.1%
HOU 1.2%0.2%0.1%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CLE 80.5% 100.0%
SF 18.8% 99.7%
JAC 0.6% 85.1%
NYJ 0.1% 84.8%
CHI 0.0% 69.5%
LARM 0.0% 35.1%
CAR 0.0% 18.4%
CIN 0.0% 3.7%
ARI 0.0% 1.3%
NO 0.0% 0.9%
SD 0.0% 0.6%
PHI 0.0% 0.4%
TEN 0.0% 0.2%
MIN 0.0% 0.1%
IND 0.0% 0.1%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
43 States of Hatred DAL vs NE 17.7%
The Great '70s Super Bowl That Never Happened DAL vs OAK 10.5%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 10.0%
Lamar Hunt Revenge Bowl DAL vs KC 7.4%
AFC West Classic (version 1) SEA vs OAK 6.1%
Belichick vs. Spawn of Belichick ATL vs NE 4.9%
AFC West Classic (version 2) SEA vs KC 4.3%
Black on Black Bowl ATL vs OAK 2.8%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 2.8%
Tony Gonzalez Legacy Bowl ATL vs KC 2.1%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 1.8%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 1.5%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 1.3%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 0.9%
Super Bowl VI Rematch DAL vs MIA 0.8%
Grit vs. Grits ATL vs PIT 0.7%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 0.7%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.7%
Super Bowl XVIIII Rematch WAS vs OAK 0.7%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.6%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs OAK 0.5%
AAFC Stolen Nickname Bowl SEA vs MIA 0.4%
Angry Native American Activists Bowl WAS vs KC 0.4%
2012 Draft Showdown SEA vs IND 0.3%
Super Bowl XXXIII Rematch ATL vs DEN 0.3%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 0.3%
The Super Bowl with the Dragon Tattoo NYG vs PIT 0.3%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs OAK 0.3%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.2%
Super Bowl XXXIX Rematch PHI vs NE 0.2%
I-75 Bowl ATL vs MIA 0.2%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.2%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.2%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.1%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.1%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.1%
Del Boca Vista Bowl NYG vs MIA 0.1%
Super Bowl XXII Rematch WAS vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.1%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.1%
Ndamukong Suh Reunion Special DET vs MIA 0.1%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXII Rematch GB vs DEN 0.1%
Florida Bowl (South vs. Central) TB vs MIA 0.1%