Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 09/16/14, through Week 2.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

NFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PHI 2-0 7.8% 9.8 16.3% 14.1% 13.7% 13.6% 6.6% 5.8% 57.6% 30.4% 12.5% 70.1% 3.0%
WAS 1-1 3.3% 8.6 3.9% 5.3% 7.5% 10.4% 7.3% 7.4% 27.0% 9.1% 14.7% 41.7% 21.4%
DAL 1-1 -6.2% 7.6 2.1% 3.0% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2% 5.3% 12.9% 5.1% 9.5% 22.4% 10.0%
NYG 0-2 -17.1% 5.6 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.9% 2.4% 0.3% 1.4% 3.8% -11.4%

NFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
GB 1-1 14.1% 9.0 10.0% 11.4% 11.0% 9.5% 5.2% 7.2% 42.0% 21.4% 12.4% 54.4% 13.6%
CHI 1-1 10.4% 8.8 7.9% 9.0% 8.6% 6.7% 8.1% 8.8% 32.2% 16.8% 16.9% 49.1% 17.6%
DET 1-1 0.7% 7.8 2.8% 4.1% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 6.3% 16.4% 6.9% 11.2% 27.6% -4.4%
MIN 1-1 -4.4% 7.2 1.3% 2.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 5.0% 9.4% 3.5% 8.2% 17.6% -29.5%

NFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CAR 2-0 7.7% 9.4 16.4% 15.2% 13.2% 12.5% 4.5% 5.1% 57.3% 31.6% 9.6% 66.9% 16.4%
NO 0-2 8.9% 7.9 2.8% 4.1% 5.9% 8.5% 4.7% 6.1% 21.3% 6.9% 10.8% 32.0% -9.7%
ATL 1-1 -2.5% 7.6 2.8% 4.3% 4.7% 5.8% 3.7% 5.1% 17.7% 7.2% 8.8% 26.4% -10.4%
TB 0-2 -6.3% 5.9 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 2.7% 0.8% 1.6% 3.8% 0.4% 2.5% 6.2% -7.2%

NFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
SEA 1-1 19.7% 9.8 13.4% 11.8% 10.2% 7.4% 16.5% 10.3% 42.8% 25.2% 26.7% 69.5% -11.1%
ARI 2-0 2.8% 9.2 14.4% 7.7% 4.5% 1.9% 16.4% 11.0% 28.5% 22.1% 27.5% 56.0% 24.5%
SF 1-1 8.8% 8.8 5.5% 6.7% 6.9% 6.5% 10.7% 10.6% 25.6% 12.2% 21.3% 46.9% -25.8%
STL 1-1 -12.4% 6.5 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 2.6% 3.6% 3.1% 1.0% 6.2% 9.4% 2.9%

AFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
BUF 2-0 7.0% 9.7 16.7% 14.0% 9.7% 4.2% 11.7% 9.9% 44.6% 30.6% 21.7% 66.2% 19.1%
NE 1-1 15.9% 9.5 7.8% 11.8% 12.1% 7.4% 11.4% 10.0% 39.1% 19.6% 21.4% 60.6% 17.8%
NYJ 1-1 -2.9% 7.4 0.9% 2.0% 3.3% 2.9% 4.7% 6.5% 9.1% 2.9% 11.2% 20.3% -12.9%
MIA 1-1 -7.2% 7.4 0.6% 1.7% 2.6% 2.3% 5.6% 6.9% 7.2% 2.3% 12.5% 19.7% -16.4%

AFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CIN 2-0 11.6% 10.1 21.7% 19.4% 14.4% 7.2% 7.7% 7.3% 62.6% 41.1% 15.0% 77.6% 12.3%
PIT 1-1 1.3% 8.4 2.2% 4.9% 6.4% 5.6% 10.1% 10.4% 19.1% 7.1% 20.5% 39.6% -22.4%
BAL 1-1 -2.6% 7.8 2.4% 3.6% 3.0% 2.0% 8.4% 9.2% 11.0% 6.0% 17.6% 28.6% 14.1%
CLE 1-1 -9.7% 7.3 1.1% 2.2% 2.3% 1.6% 4.9% 6.9% 7.3% 3.4% 11.8% 19.0% 5.8%

AFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
HOU 2-0 -6.8% 8.8 4.4% 8.7% 12.7% 21.3% 4.1% 5.5% 47.1% 13.1% 9.6% 56.7% 22.2%
TEN 1-1 -2.9% 8.2 1.6% 3.6% 7.4% 22.0% 3.9% 5.8% 34.6% 5.2% 9.8% 44.4% -18.5%
IND 0-2 -8.8% 6.6 0.3% 1.1% 2.8% 9.1% 1.3% 2.5% 13.3% 1.4% 3.8% 17.1% -13.1%
JAC 0-2 -23.6% 5.6 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 3.7% 0.5% 1.2% 5.0% 0.3% 1.7% 6.7% -9.2%

AFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DEN 2-0 29.7% 11.1 37.0% 22.3% 15.9% 5.5% 7.1% 3.8% 80.7% 59.2% 11.0% 91.7% 4.0%
SD 1-1 4.3% 8.7 3.2% 4.5% 5.9% 4.4% 17.1% 12.2% 18.0% 7.7% 29.3% 47.3% 4.4%
KC 0-2 -17.8% 5.2 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 2.1% 2.8% -4.7%
OAK 0-2 -20.4% 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 1.1% 1.6% -2.7%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team
  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win16-0
DEN 56.3%36.3%21.7%0.2%
CIN 36.0%18.1%9.4%0.0%
SEA 28.1%16.0%8.4%0.0%
CAR 27.6%14.2%6.7%0.0%
PHI 27.8%14.1%6.6%0.0%
NE 23.1%11.6%6.4%0.0%
BUF 26.8%12.6%6.1%0.0%
GB 22.2%12.0%6.0%0.0%
CHI 17.4%8.8%4.3%0.0%
ARI 18.5%9.2%4.0%0.0%
SF 14.0%6.8%3.2%0.0%
SD 10.4%4.6%2.2%0.0%
NO 9.1%4.4%2.1%0.0%
WAS 10.7%4.7%2.1%0.0%
HOU 12.2%4.1%1.6%0.0%
PIT 8.4%3.3%1.4%0.0%
DET 7.3%3.1%1.3%0.0%
TEN 7.9%2.8%1.2%0.0%
ATL 6.6%2.7%1.1%0.0%
BAL 6.1%2.3%1.0%0.0%
DAL 4.7%1.8%0.7%0.0%
MIN 3.7%1.5%0.6%0.0%
NYJ 3.8%1.4%0.5%0.0%
MIA 2.9%1.0%0.4%0.0%
CLE 3.1%1.0%0.4%0.0%
IND 2.4%0.7%0.3%0.0%
STL 1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Team Top Pick Top 3 Pick
OAK 22.8% 49.3%
KC 17.2% 41.0%
JAC 11.9% 32.9%
NYG 11.9% 32.9%
TB 9.2% 28.0%
STL 4.8% 16.8%
IND 4.9% 16.7%
MIN 2.2% 9.5%
CLE 2.0% 8.7%
NYJ 1.8% 8.2%
MIA 1.9% 8.1%
ATL 1.5% 6.8%
DAL 1.4% 6.5%
DET 1.0% 5.0%
BAL 1.0% 5.0%
NO 1.0% 4.9%
TEN 0.6% 3.3%
PIT 0.5% 2.7%
WAS 0.4% 2.1%
SD 0.4% 1.9%
SF 0.3% 1.6%
HOU 0.3% 1.6%
CHI 0.3% 1.5%
GB 0.2% 1.2%
ARI 0.2% 1.0%
CAR 0.1% 0.6%
NE 0.1% 0.6%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" super bowl matchups.

Name Teams Chance
Super Bowl XLVIII rematch SEA vs DEN 5.9%
Super Bowl XXXII rematch GB vs DEN 4.3%
Jay Cutler Reunion Special CHI vs DEN 3.2%
Super Bowl XXIV rematch SF vs DEN 2.3%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special I SEA vs NE 1.8%
Super Bowl XXII rematch WAS vs DEN 1.8%
Ultra College-Coach Showdown PHI vs BUF 1.8%
Super Bowl XXXIX rematch PHI vs NE 1.8%
Peyton vs. Payton II NO vs DEN 1.6%
Super Bowl XXXVIII rematch CAR vs NE 1.6%
Super Bowl XXXI rematch GB vs NE 1.3%
Bill Walsh Memorial Bowl SF vs CIN 1.3%
Super Bowl XXXIII rematch ATL vs DEN 1.0%
Super Bowl XX rematch CHI vs NE 1.0%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.8%
Super Bowl XII rematch DAL vs DEN 0.7%
DeMarcus Ware Reunion Special DAL vs DEN 0.7%
Super Bowl XXVI rematch WAS vs BUF 0.5%
Super Bowl XL rematch SEA vs PIT 0.5%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.5%
Super Bowl XLV rematch GB vs PIT 0.4%
Jim Schwartz Reunion Special DET vs BUF 0.4%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 0.3%
Super Bowl XLIII rematch ARI vs PIT 0.3%
Super Bowl XXIX rematch SF vs SD 0.3%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII rematch DAL vs BUF 0.2%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs SD 0.2%
Harbaugh Bowl II SF vs BAL 0.2%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special II SEA vs NYJ 0.2%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.1%
2012 Draft Showdown II SEA vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowl XIX rematch SF vs MIA 0.1%
Ryan Bowl NO vs NYJ 0.1%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.1%
Super Bowl XLI rematch CHI vs IND 0.1%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.1%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX rematch DAL vs PIT 0.1%