The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)
The simulation gives a small boost to Pittsburgh to counteract the drop in ratings from sitting starters in Week 17.
Please note that the Playoff Odds Simulator uses a very simple formula that does not account for specific matchups. The percentages listed below do not necessarily reflect the opinion of any specific Football Outsiders writer about any specific playoff game.
This report lists the odds of each team
|Team||Conf Win||SB Win|
|Belichick vs. Spawn of Belichick||ATL vs NE||38.4%|
|Grit vs. Grits||ATL vs PIT||23.6%|
|Super Bowl XXXI Rematch||GB vs NE||23.5%|
|Super Bowl XLV Rematch||GB vs PIT||14.5%|