Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008


Revised as of 01/16/17, through Divisional Round

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

The simulation gives a small boost to Pittsburgh to counteract the drop in ratings from sitting starters in Week 17.

Please note that the Playoff Odds Simulator uses a very simple formula that does not account for specific matchups. The percentages listed below do not necessarily reflect the opinion of any specific Football Outsiders writer about any specific playoff game.

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf WinSB Win
NE 61.9% 35.5%
ATL 62.0% 28.5%
PIT 38.1% 19.7%
GB 38.0% 16.3%

Super Bowl Matchups

Name Teams Chance
Belichick vs. Spawn of Belichick ATL vs NE 38.4%
Grit vs. Grits ATL vs PIT 23.6%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 23.5%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 14.5%