Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008


Revised as of 08/06/15, as of preseason.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

Full playoff odds will appear in the first week of September.

Odds to Win Super Bowl 50 (from Football Outsiders Almanac 2015)
1SEA 14.8%6 STL3.7% 11SD 3.3%
2 NE 12.4% 7 BAL 3.7% 12 DAL 3.1%
3DEN 8.3%8 CIN3.5% 13PIT 3.1%
4GB 8.0%9 MIN3.4% 14ATL 3.0%
5IND 4.6%10 PHI3.4% 15NO 2.9%