Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 12/16/14, through Week 15.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

NFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DAL 10-4 8.9% 11.2 18.1% 13.2% 39.2% 0.0% 7.4% 8.1% 70.6% 31.4% 15.5% 86.1% 29.2%
PHI 9-5 14.9% 10.2 0.0% 0.0% 29.4% 0.0% 0.6% 5.2% 29.4% 0.0% 5.9% 35.3% -43.9%
NYG 5-9 -5.3% 5.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WAS 3-11 -36.4% 3.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
GB 10-4 22.2% 11.4 15.6% 28.9% 12.8% 0.0% 14.9% 20.7% 57.2% 44.4% 35.6% 92.8% -4.0%
DET 10-4 4.3% 10.8 2.1% 27.6% 13.1% 0.0% 3.2% 43.0% 42.8% 29.7% 46.1% 88.9% 12.3%
MIN 6-8 -5.7% 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%
CHI 5-9 -22.9% 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NO 6-8 3.8% 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.0% 15.6%
CAR 5-8-1 -16.7% 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.9%
ATL 5-9 -6.7% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% -16.5%
TB 2-12 -24.6% 2.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
ARI 11-3 -8.0% 11.7 36.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 43.1% 11.0% 45.9% 45.9% 54.1% 100.0% 5.8%
SEA 10-4 23.1% 11.3 28.0% 20.6% 5.5% 0.0% 30.8% 12.0% 54.1% 48.6% 42.8% 96.9% 9.1%
SF 7-7 1.1% 8.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -8.3%
STL 6-8 7.2% 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%

AFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 11-3 35.1% 12.4 67.6% 27.0% 4.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.3%
BUF 8-6 14.0% 9.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 6.4% 1.4%
MIA 7-7 7.0% 8.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -21.0%
NYJ 3-11 -22.3% 3.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
BAL 9-5 28.6% 10.5 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 19.3% 37.3% 24.4% 26.0% 0.0% 61.7% 87.6% 7.1%
PIT 9-5 10.4% 10.2 0.1% 3.2% 29.7% 14.4% 10.7% 23.4% 47.4% 3.2% 34.1% 81.5% 15.8%
CIN 9-4-1 -1.9% 10.2 0.1% 1.4% 12.0% 13.2% 24.7% 26.8% 26.7% 1.5% 51.6% 78.2% 27.5%
CLE 7-7 -11.3% 7.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -4.3%

AFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
IND 10-4 8.9% 11.0 0.1% 2.6% 45.7% 51.6% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.7% 0.0% 100.0% 1.6%
HOU 7-7 -10.2% 8.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2.2% -10.7%
JAC 2-12 -26.1% 3.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TEN 2-12 -35.9% 2.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DEN 11-3 30.0% 12.5 32.2% 65.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
KC 8-6 19.9% 9.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.9% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 34.1% 34.1% -1.8%
SD 8-6 3.6% 8.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10.0% -15.8%
OAK 2-12 -28.2% 2.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team
  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
NE 66.9%37.9%22.2%
DEN 69.0%36.3%20.9%
SEA 46.7%26.8%13.2%
GB 42.5%24.4%11.8%
DAL 31.7%16.0%6.5%
BAL 20.4%9.8%5.6%
DET 26.3%11.5%4.4%
ARI 28.9%11.8%3.9%
IND 16.7%6.2%2.9%
PIT 13.4%5.1%2.4%
NO 12.0%4.5%1.8%
PHI 7.9%3.9%1.8%
KC 5.5%2.3%1.3%
CIN 6.3%1.8%0.7%
ATL 2.7%0.8%0.2%
CAR 1.1%0.2%0.1%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Team Top Pick Top 3 Pick
TB 42.4% 85.8%
TEN 30.6% 82.2%
OAK 13.6% 62.1%
JAC 13.4% 45.3%
WAS 0.0% 16.2%
NYJ 0.0% 8.4%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" super bowl matchups. These are not ALL the possible matchups, just specific ones with historical meaning.

Name Teams Chance
Pete Carroll Reunion Special I SEA vs NE 10.3%
Super Bowl XLVIII rematch SEA vs DEN 9.5%
Super Bowl XXXI rematch GB vs NE 9.4%
Super Bowl XXXII rematch GB vs DEN 8.8%
DeMarcus Ware Reunion Special DAL vs DEN 5.8%
Peyton vs. Payton II NO vs DEN 1.7%
2012 Draft Showdown II SEA vs IND 1.7%
Super Bowl XXXIX rematch PHI vs NE 1.4%
Super Bowl XL rematch SEA vs PIT 1.4%
Super Bowl XLV rematch GB vs PIT 1.2%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX rematch DAL vs PIT 0.8%
Bruce Arians Reunion Special ARI vs IND 0.7%
Jim Caldwell Reunion Special DET vs IND 0.7%
Super Bowl XLIII rematch ARI vs PIT 0.6%
Super Bowl I rematch GB vs KC 0.6%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 0.4%
Super Bowl XLIV rematch NO vs IND 0.3%
Super Bowl XXXIII rematch ATL vs DEN 0.3%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.2%
Carson Palmer Reunion Special ARI vs CIN 0.2%
John Fox Reunion Special CAR vs DEN 0.1%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.1%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXVIII rematch CAR vs NE 0.1%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.1%