Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 09/30/14, through Week 4.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

NFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PHI 3-1 7.9% 9.7 10.9% 12.8% 14.4% 9.5% 7.3% 7.7% 47.6% 23.7% 15.0% 62.6% -19.6%
DAL 3-1 0.5% 9.1 8.3% 9.1% 8.5% 4.7% 7.5% 8.8% 30.5% 17.4% 16.3% 46.9% 18.9%
NYG 2-2 2.1% 8.2 2.2% 4.1% 6.9% 6.0% 3.3% 5.4% 19.3% 6.4% 8.7% 28.0% 23.6%
WAS 1-3 -7.1% 6.5 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 2.1% 2.7% 0.4% 3.2% 5.9% -24.8%

NFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
GB 2-2 18.3% 9.7 13.0% 14.3% 10.8% 5.7% 9.5% 10.4% 43.9% 27.4% 19.9% 63.8% 33.2%
DET 3-1 5.8% 9.5 11.1% 11.2% 8.1% 4.3% 12.6% 11.6% 34.7% 22.3% 24.2% 58.9% 18.3%
CHI 2-2 7.6% 8.7 4.8% 6.0% 4.0% 2.2% 9.7% 11.9% 16.9% 10.7% 21.6% 38.5% -33.1%
MIN 2-2 -10.2% 7.1 0.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 2.0% 3.9% 4.5% 1.8% 5.9% 10.4% 6.2%

NFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
ATL 2-2 12.6% 8.8 7.4% 10.9% 14.8% 27.3% 1.4% 2.3% 60.5% 18.4% 3.7% 64.2% -0.4%
NO 1-3 2.9% 7.3 0.7% 1.8% 4.5% 15.4% 1.1% 2.5% 22.3% 2.5% 3.6% 26.0% -14.1%
CAR 2-2 -9.4% 6.8 0.6% 1.5% 3.3% 10.2% 0.8% 1.6% 15.5% 2.1% 2.4% 17.9% -15.2%
TB 1-3 -26.9% 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 1.9% 1.8%

NFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
SEA 2-1 23.8% 10.5 20.6% 15.2% 12.5% 5.8% 16.6% 8.6% 54.3% 35.9% 25.2% 79.5% 1.3%
ARI 3-0 5.0% 9.6 17.8% 8.3% 4.8% 1.5% 19.0% 11.7% 32.3% 26.1% 30.7% 63.0% 1.5%
SF 2-2 5.3% 8.3 1.9% 3.2% 4.4% 3.1% 7.6% 10.1% 12.6% 5.0% 17.7% 30.3% 3.5%
STL 1-2 -15.6% 5.6 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 1.5% 2.4% -1.0%

AFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
BUF 2-2 3.7% 8.4 3.6% 8.9% 17.8% 14.1% 0.9% 2.6% 44.4% 12.5% 3.5% 47.9% -8.2%
NE 2-2 3.2% 8.0 1.0% 3.9% 10.1% 16.3% 1.5% 3.4% 31.3% 5.0% 4.9% 36.2% -29.6%
MIA 2-2 -5.1% 7.4 0.4% 1.8% 5.4% 10.6% 1.5% 3.3% 18.1% 2.1% 4.9% 23.0% 13.4%
NYJ 1-3 -10.3% 5.9 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 4.6% 0.3% 1.0% 6.2% 0.3% 1.2% 7.4% -2.4%

AFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CIN 3-0 21.2% 11.3 47.0% 15.9% 4.8% 1.3% 12.1% 7.7% 69.0% 62.9% 19.8% 88.8% 1.7%
BAL 3-1 9.0% 9.8 12.9% 6.2% 1.7% 0.4% 26.0% 17.6% 21.2% 19.0% 43.6% 64.8% 29.6%
PIT 2-2 4.3% 8.4 2.1% 2.8% 1.9% 1.0% 10.1% 13.9% 7.8% 4.9% 24.0% 31.9% -32.0%
CLE 1-2 -5.4% 7.1 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 3.7% 6.1% 2.0% 1.4% 9.7% 11.7% 0.6%

AFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
HOU 3-1 -8.1% 8.6 2.5% 7.5% 17.8% 16.5% 2.3% 4.4% 44.3% 10.0% 6.7% 51.0% 5.9%
IND 2-2 0.7% 8.3 1.7% 6.0% 18.1% 21.7% 1.3% 2.9% 47.5% 7.7% 4.2% 51.7% 12.0%
TEN 1-3 -17.9% 6.3 0.0% 0.2% 1.6% 5.6% 0.5% 1.7% 7.4% 0.2% 2.2% 9.7% -13.6%
JAC 0-4 -33.7% 4.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% -1.8%

AFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DEN 2-1 26.8% 10.5 19.5% 28.4% 8.3% 2.1% 15.0% 10.1% 58.3% 47.9% 25.1% 83.4% -0.1%
SD 3-1 9.1% 9.8 7.9% 14.8% 8.3% 3.9% 18.6% 15.7% 34.9% 22.7% 34.3% 69.1% 8.7%
KC 2-2 -2.0% 7.7 0.7% 2.6% 2.3% 1.2% 6.2% 9.3% 6.8% 3.3% 15.5% 22.3% 16.7%
OAK 0-4 -26.8% 3.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% -1.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team
  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win16-0
CIN 51.0%30.6%16.8%0.2%
DEN 45.2%26.2%15.2%0.0%
SEA 36.5%21.8%12.0%0.0%
GB 27.5%15.1%7.9%0.0%
ATL 22.9%11.2%5.5%0.0%
SD 23.6%10.8%5.4%0.0%
ARI 21.5%10.9%4.9%0.0%
PHI 22.1%10.6%4.9%0.0%
BAL 19.7%9.6%4.8%0.0%
DET 19.8%9.4%4.2%0.0%
BUF 13.7%5.7%2.6%0.0%
DAL 14.5%6.2%2.5%0.0%
CHI 10.9%5.0%2.3%0.0%
IND 11.3%4.2%1.8%0.0%
NE 8.4%3.3%1.5%0.0%
SF 6.7%3.0%1.3%0.0%
NYG 7.0%3.0%1.2%0.0%
PIT 6.6%2.7%1.2%0.0%
HOU 9.6%3.2%1.2%0.0%
NO 5.3%2.1%0.9%0.0%
KC 4.0%1.5%0.6%0.0%
MIA 3.6%1.3%0.5%0.0%
CAR 2.8%0.9%0.3%0.0%
CLE 1.7%0.6%0.2%0.0%
MIN 1.7%0.6%0.2%0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Team Top Pick Top 3 Pick
OAK 37.8% 71.9%
JAC 24.3% 59.1%
TB 13.1% 42.9%
STL 7.2% 27.0%
NYJ 5.1% 22.0%
TEN 3.3% 15.1%
WAS 2.2% 11.8%
CAR 1.3% 8.5%
CLE 1.3% 7.2%
MIN 0.9% 7.0%
NO 0.8% 5.4%
MIA 0.7% 4.9%
KC 0.4% 3.3%
NE 0.2% 2.1%
NYG 0.2% 1.8%
SF 0.2% 1.6%
PIT 0.2% 1.5%
IND 0.2% 1.5%
BUF 0.2% 1.4%
HOU 0.1% 0.9%
CHI 0.1% 0.8%
ATL 0.1% 0.7%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" super bowl matchups.

Name Teams Chance
Super Bowl XLVIII rematch SEA vs DEN 5.7%
Super Bowl XXXII rematch GB vs DEN 4.0%
Carson Palmer Reunion Special ARI vs CIN 3.2%
Super Bowl XXXIII rematch ATL vs DEN 2.9%
Super Bowl XII rematch DAL vs DEN 1.6%
DeMarcus Ware Reunion Special DAL vs DEN 1.6%
Jay Cutler Reunion Special CHI vs DEN 1.3%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 1.1%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 1.0%
2012 Draft Showdown II SEA vs IND 1.0%
Bill Walsh Memorial Bowl SF vs CIN 0.9%
Manning Bowl NYG vs DEN 0.8%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special I SEA vs NE 0.7%
Super Bowl XXIV rematch SF vs DEN 0.7%
Ultra College-Coach Showdown PHI vs BUF 0.6%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.6%
Super Bowl XL rematch SEA vs PIT 0.6%
Peyton vs. Payton II NO vs DEN 0.5%
Jim Schwartz Reunion Special DET vs BUF 0.5%
Super Bowl XXXI rematch GB vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowl XLV rematch GB vs PIT 0.4%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII rematch DAL vs BUF 0.4%
Super Bowl XXXIX rematch PHI vs NE 0.4%
Super Bowl XXIX rematch SF vs SD 0.3%
Super Bowl XLIII rematch ARI vs PIT 0.3%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.3%
Super Bowl XXXV rematch NYG vs BAL 0.3%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs SD 0.3%
John Fox Reunion Special CAR vs DEN 0.3%
Super Bowl I rematch GB vs KC 0.2%
Harbaugh Bowl II SF vs BAL 0.2%
Super Bowl XLI rematch CHI vs IND 0.2%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.2%
Super Bowl XXV rematch NYG vs BUF 0.2%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.2%
Super Bowl XX rematch CHI vs NE 0.2%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX rematch DAL vs PIT 0.2%
Steve Smith Reunion Special CAR vs BAL 0.1%
Super Bowl XLIV rematch NO vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowl VI rematch DAL vs MIA 0.1%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI rematch NYG vs NE 0.1%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special II SEA vs NYJ 0.1%
Super Bowl XXII rematch WAS vs DEN 0.1%