Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 10/21/14, through Week 7.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

NFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DAL 6-1 12.2% 11.3 37.7% 15.0% 6.5% 0.3% 18.8% 11.8% 59.5% 52.6% 30.6% 90.1% 11.8%
PHI 5-1 12.6% 10.5 15.2% 15.6% 7.7% 0.8% 21.0% 16.1% 39.3% 30.8% 37.0% 76.4% 4.0%
NYG 3-4 -5.3% 7.3 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.5% 4.4% 5.5% -5.8%
WAS 2-5 -10.7% 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%

NFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
GB 5-2 25.6% 11.1 25.2% 30.0% 13.4% 1.0% 11.1% 8.3% 69.6% 55.2% 19.4% 89.0% 10.7%
DET 5-2 4.0% 10.0 7.2% 12.8% 7.3% 0.7% 23.1% 17.4% 28.0% 20.0% 40.5% 68.5% 6.7%
CHI 3-4 -1.4% 7.7 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 4.2% 7.7% 2.3% 1.3% 11.9% 14.2% -18.9%
MIN 2-5 -23.7% 5.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% -0.1%

NFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CAR 3-3-1 -11.4% 7.1 0.2% 1.0% 4.7% 42.0% 0.0% 0.3% 48.0% 1.2% 0.4% 48.4% -6.5%
NO 2-4 -1.5% 7.1 0.1% 0.5% 3.3% 27.5% 0.1% 0.4% 31.3% 0.5% 0.4% 31.7% 10.8%
ATL 2-5 -2.6% 6.5 0.0% 0.3% 1.7% 18.0% 0.1% 0.3% 20.0% 0.4% 0.4% 20.4% -6.2%
TB 1-5 -39.3% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4%

NFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
ARI 5-1 -0.5% 9.7 11.5% 13.6% 16.3% 1.8% 8.3% 12.6% 43.3% 25.1% 20.9% 64.2% 21.2%
SEA 3-3 21.0% 9.5 2.2% 7.8% 25.7% 4.0% 7.9% 12.6% 39.7% 10.0% 20.5% 60.3% -9.2%
SF 4-3 -3.4% 8.4 0.3% 2.1% 11.2% 2.6% 4.2% 7.7% 16.2% 2.4% 11.9% 28.1% -20.1%
STL 2-4 -12.9% 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% 1.1%

AFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 5-2 6.2% 9.5 2.1% 6.2% 14.3% 32.9% 2.5% 4.2% 55.5% 8.3% 6.8% 62.3% -7.3%
MIA 3-3 4.8% 8.3 0.4% 1.7% 5.2% 17.5% 3.0% 5.2% 24.8% 2.2% 8.2% 32.9% 16.5%
BUF 4-3 -1.0% 8.2 0.7% 2.2% 5.9% 10.5% 2.3% 5.1% 19.3% 2.8% 7.4% 26.7% 0.9%
NYJ 1-6 -13.7% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% -0.5%

AFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
BAL 5-2 26.1% 11.0 25.0% 30.1% 15.3% 4.0% 6.7% 6.6% 74.4% 55.1% 13.3% 87.7% 10.5%
PIT 4-3 2.0% 8.6 0.6% 2.6% 3.6% 3.1% 8.7% 13.6% 10.0% 3.2% 22.3% 32.2% 15.3%
CIN 3-2-1 2.2% 8.2 1.4% 3.6% 4.2% 2.2% 10.4% 13.1% 11.4% 5.0% 23.5% 34.9% -28.2%
CLE 3-3 -3.4% 8.0 0.6% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 5.1% 9.5% 4.3% 2.3% 14.5% 18.8% -18.6%

AFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
IND 5-2 18.1% 10.7 9.5% 25.5% 38.4% 23.4% 0.1% 0.3% 96.8% 35.0% 0.4% 97.2% 10.9%
HOU 3-4 -9.1% 7.2 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 3.6% 2.8% 0.4% 4.9% 7.7% -9.2%
TEN 2-5 -13.3% 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 1.4% -2.3%
JAC 1-6 -27.9% 4.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DEN 5-1 44.2% 12.2 55.0% 20.2% 5.6% 1.1% 11.8% 3.4% 81.8% 75.2% 15.2% 97.0% 6.9%
SD 5-2 13.2% 9.7 3.8% 4.1% 3.3% 1.8% 29.9% 19.3% 13.1% 7.9% 49.2% 62.3% -14.7%
KC 3-3 7.2% 8.6 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% 18.0% 15.3% 5.1% 2.6% 33.3% 38.4% 19.9%
OAK 0-6 -21.4% 2.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team
  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
DEN 62.0%40.0%25.6%
GB 48.9%28.9%14.2%
BAL 45.0%22.5%12.6%
DAL 42.9%23.4%10.1%
IND 37.9%17.3%9.2%
PHI 29.4%14.8%6.3%
SEA 19.6%9.9%4.7%
DET 19.0%8.1%3.0%
ARI 20.4%8.3%3.0%
SD 12.5%5.3%2.6%
NE 13.3%4.7%2.3%
KC 5.4%2.0%1.0%
MIA 5.7%2.1%0.9%
CIN 6.0%2.1%0.8%
PIT 4.7%1.7%0.7%
NO 4.6%1.6%0.6%
BUF 4.2%1.3%0.5%
SF 4.1%1.4%0.5%
CAR 5.2%1.4%0.4%
CLE 2.5%0.8%0.3%
ATL 2.9%1.0%0.3%
CHI 2.0%0.8%0.3%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Team Top Pick Top 3 Pick
OAK 50.3% 82.9%
JAC 16.1% 56.0%
TB 15.7% 53.6%
NYJ 8.7% 37.0%
MIN 2.4% 16.8%
STL 2.5% 14.5%
TEN 1.7% 12.2%
WAS 1.3% 10.6%
ATL 0.6% 5.4%
NO 0.3% 3.0%
HOU 0.1% 2.1%
NYG 0.1% 1.9%
CAR 0.0% 0.8%
CHI 0.0% 0.8%
CLE 0.1% 0.6%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" super bowl matchups.

Name Teams Chance
Super Bowl XXXII rematch GB vs DEN 11.7%
Super Bowl XII rematch DAL vs DEN 9.4%
DeMarcus Ware Reunion Special DAL vs DEN 9.4%
Super Bowl XLVIII rematch SEA vs DEN 3.9%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 3.3%
2012 Draft Showdown II SEA vs IND 1.8%
Super Bowl XXXI rematch GB vs NE 1.3%
Super Bowl XXXIX rematch PHI vs NE 0.8%
Super Bowl XXIV rematch SF vs DEN 0.6%
Peyton vs. Payton II NO vs DEN 0.6%
Super Bowl I rematch GB vs KC 0.6%
John Fox Reunion Special CAR vs DEN 0.6%
Super Bowl VI rematch DAL vs MIA 0.5%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special I SEA vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowl XLV rematch GB vs PIT 0.4%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX rematch DAL vs PIT 0.4%
Super Bowl XXXIII rematch ATL vs DEN 0.4%
Steve Smith Reunion Special CAR vs BAL 0.3%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.3%
Jay Cutler Reunion Special CHI vs DEN 0.3%
Harbaugh Bowl II SF vs BAL 0.3%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII rematch DAL vs BUF 0.3%
Super Bowl XLIV rematch NO vs IND 0.3%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.2%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.2%
Ultra College-Coach Showdown PHI vs BUF 0.2%
Carson Palmer Reunion Special ARI vs CIN 0.2%
Super Bowl XL rematch SEA vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl XLIII rematch ARI vs PIT 0.1%
Super Bowl XLI rematch CHI vs IND 0.1%
Jim Schwartz Reunion Special DET vs BUF 0.1%
Manning Bowl NYG vs DEN 0.1%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs SD 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXVIII rematch CAR vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl XXIX rematch SF vs SD 0.1%