by Aaron Schatz
You love them when your team is high! You hate them when your team is low! DVOA ratings are in effect for 2006!
This year we introduce a new feature of the DVOA ratings: An early-season rating that combines the preseason projection with the results of early games to give us a better prediction of how each team will rank at the end of the year. Can you guess how much of this rating is based on the first week's games?
Four percent.
Yes, that's it, and yes, I was pretty surprised too. In fact, when I tried to create a formula that combined preseason projection and Week 1 to get the most accurate prediction of DVOA for the final 15 games, the result was the same every time: the preseason projection, on its own, was the most accurate predictor no matter what the Week 1 result was. I simply could not build this "early-season weighted DVOA" in the same way I build the late-season weighted DVOA. So what we have here is a formula that predicts the total DVOA for all 16 games, not the DVOA for the remaining games. Those numbers are listed below as "PROJ + WEEK 1." I hope that makes it clear to everyone not to jump to conclusions based on the rating of a single game.
My goal was also to add home-field advantage adjustments to the DVOA ratings, but I didn't quite finish the mechanisms there. Hopefully that gets in by the end of the month. And of course, these are the improved DVOA ratings that are both more predictive, and more accurately correlated with winning. The changes in the method are detailed in Pro Football Prospectus 2006.
The plan at FOXSports.com this year was to run twin power rankings: one statistical, one conventional. To be honest, I think that's a little confusing, but it means I don't have to refer to these as "power rankings" anymore, and I'll feel less pressure to make any subjective changes or defend my numbers to the masses. The first commentary of the season is found here on FOXSports.com [1]
You should also check out the new Football Outsiders FOX Blog [2]. This is a new feature where I can put my random thoughts, mention the various little goofy stats I come across when I have no idea where else to mention them, and ask questions and just get data to see interesting things. Plus Mike Tanier will also be writing a little, and later I hope to use this to answer mailbag questions and post occasional scouting thoughts from the game charters. Enjoy the first couple posts, which have been completely taken the wrong way by nearly all commenters. In the proper FO tradition, I guess.
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through one week of 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [3].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE VOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
There are no opponent adjustments for the first three weeks of the season, which is why offense and defense are "VOA" and not "DVOA."
To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM |
TOTAL VOA |
W-L |
PROJ+ WEEK 1 |
RANK |
OFFENSE VOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE VOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | BAL | 74.3% | 1-0 | 2.9% | 15 | 1.9% | 13 | -72.1% | 1 | 0.3% | 15 |
| 2 | CHI | 67.5% | 1-0 | 13.6% | 8 | 7.8% | 9 | -31.1% | 6 | 28.6% | 1 |
| 3 | SD | 63.4% | 1-0 | 23.0% | 3 | 16.8% | 5 | -48.5% | 2 | -1.9% | 20 |
| 4 | ATL | 57.7% | 1-0 | 10.5% | 10 | 16.1% | 6 | -43.1% | 3 | -1.5% | 19 |
| 5 | PHI | 47.0% | 1-0 | 13.6% | 9 | 46.9% | 2 | 2.6% | 21 | 2.6% | 13 |
| 6 | STL | 46.6% | 1-0 | -21.6% | 27 | -1.8% | 15 | -40.5% | 4 | 8.0% | 5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 36.9% | 1-0 | -24.0% | 31 | 27.9% | 3 | -22.3% | 10 | -13.3% | 28 |
| 8 | CIN | 36.0% | 1-0 | 19.8% | 4 | -1.9% | 16 | -29.7% | 7 | 8.1% | 4 |
| 9 | NO | 30.3% | 1-0 | -31.3% | 32 | -4.2% | 17 | -35.0% | 5 | -0.5% | 17 |
| 10 | NYG | 19.7% | 0-1 | 2.7% | 16 | 47.7% | 1 | 13.6% | 25 | -14.4% | 29 |
| 11 | JAC | 18.9% | 1-0 | 4.8% | 14 | 7.1% | 10 | -19.3% | 11 | -7.6% | 26 |
| 12 | PIT | 13.5% | 1-0 | 15.5% | 7 | 5.4% | 11 | -26.1% | 8 | -18.1% | 31 |
| 13 | SF | 11.2% | 0-1 | -24.0% | 30 | 23.7% | 4 | 15.8% | 26 | 3.3% | 11 |
| 14 | SEA | 9.5% | 1-0 | 38.5% | 1 | -15.7% | 21 | -22.5% | 9 | 2.7% | 12 |
| 15 | BUF | 9.1% | 0-1 | -21.9% | 28 | -0.9% | 14 | -5.7% | 14 | 4.3% | 7 |
| 16 | MIN | 1.7% | 1-0 | -18.5% | 26 | -5.2% | 18 | -12.9% | 13 | -6.0% | 23 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL VOA |
W-L |
PROJ+ WEEK 1 |
RANK |
OFFENSE VOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE VOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | NE | -0.9% | 1-0 | 6.5% | 12 | -5.7% | 19 | -0.9% | 19 | 3.9% | 9 |
| 18 | ARI | -13.9% | 1-0 | -17.4% | 25 | 15.8% | 7 | 23.7% | 29 | -6.0% | 22 |
| 19 | WAS | -14.3% | 0-1 | 6.3% | 13 | -12.9% | 20 | -5.2% | 15 | -6.6% | 25 |
| 20 | MIA | -20.2% | 0-1 | -1.3% | 18 | -26.1% | 25 | 5.4% | 22 | 11.4% | 3 |
| 21 | IND | -20.4% | 1-0 | 25.6% | 2 | 13.6% | 8 | 47.7% | 32 | 13.7% | 2 |
| 22 | DET | -21.9% | 0-1 | -9.3% | 21 | -22.5% | 24 | -15.7% | 12 | -15.1% | 30 |
| 23 | CLE | -25.4% | 0-1 | -9.5% | 23 | -35.0% | 28 | -4.2% | 16 | 5.4% | 6 |
| 24 | DAL | -32.9% | 0-1 | -3.7% | 20 | -19.3% | 22 | 7.1% | 23 | -6.5% | 24 |
| 25 | KC | -36.7% | 0-1 | 17.0% | 5 | -29.7% | 26 | -1.9% | 17 | -8.9% | 27 |
| 26 | DEN | -38.8% | 0-1 | 15.9% | 6 | -40.5% | 29 | -1.8% | 18 | -0.2% | 16 |
| 27 | HOU | -45.0% | 0-1 | -22.0% | 29 | 2.6% | 12 | 46.9% | 31 | -0.6% | 18 |
| 28 | TEN | -53.9% | 0-1 | -9.4% | 22 | -22.3% | 23 | 27.9% | 30 | -3.7% | 21 |
| 29 | CAR | -55.3% | 0-1 | 8.2% | 11 | -43.1% | 30 | 16.1% | 27 | 3.9% | 10 |
| 30 | OAK | -61.2% | 0-1 | -0.9% | 17 | -48.5% | 31 | 16.8% | 28 | 4.2% | 8 |
| 31 | GB | -67.7% | 0-1 | -15.7% | 24 | -31.1% | 27 | 7.8% | 24 | -28.8% | 32 |
| 32 | TB | -73.0% | 0-1 | -3.1% | 19 | -72.1% | 32 | 1.9% | 20 | 1.0% | 14 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5962520
[2] http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/footballoutsiders
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa