by Aaron Schatz
Once again this week, we provide two sets of ratings -- in two entirely separate tables. The first table has VOA through the first three games, no opponent adjustments of course. The only differences between "NON-ADJ VOA" and "TOTAL VOA" are fumble luck and the weather/altitude effects on special teams.
The second table is the new rating that combines early-season performance with the preseason projection. We have a name for this now. One of the hardest parts of doing statistical analysis is naming your new statistics so that they make sense. A lot of people have criticized us because DVOA, DPAR, ALY, etc. just turns into a bunch of alphabet soup. My typical response to "Why did you name it DVOA" is "Well, I can't just name it 'Dave.'"
Anyway, here we are with a new statistic, and nobody can come up with a good name, so this time I really am naming it Dave.
No, seriously. It's called DAVE: DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early. For those curious, the formula this week is 67 percent projection, 33 percent 2006 VOA. The separate pages for offense, defense, and special teams will be all be updated soon, as will individual pages.
UPDATE: Commentary is finally available on FOXSports.com [1].
I look forward to the deluge of hate mail from New Orleans. Hey, statistics can't measure emotion, but for the other 31 teams, it's still more accurate to combine the first three games with the preseason projection. Honestly, it probably is more accurate for New Orleans too.
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 3 of 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [2].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE VOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
There are no opponent adjustments for the first three weeks of the season, which is why offense and defense are "VOA" and not "DVOA."
To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| ACTUAL 2006 NUMBERS | |||||||||||
| TEAM | TOTAL VOA |
LAST WEEK |
NON-ADJ VOA |
W-L | OFFENSE VOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE VOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | SD | 83.8% | 2 | 90.3% | 2-0 | 31.3% | 2 | -48.9% | 2 | 3.6% | 7 |
| 2 | BAL | 65.7% | 1 | 82.1% | 3-0 | -0.3% | 15 | -59.8% | 1 | 6.2% | 3 |
| 3 | CHI | 49.6% | 3 | 60.1% | 3-0 | 13.4% | 6 | -22.2% | 6 | 14.0% | 1 |
| 4 | PHI | 45.4% | 6 | 37.6% | 2-1 | 39.2% | 1 | -5.4% | 15 | 0.7% | 17 |
| 5 | NO | 34.9% | 11 | 33.3% | 3-0 | 1.9% | 13 | -29.5% | 3 | 3.5% | 8 |
| 6 | CIN | 25.3% | 4 | 29.4% | 3-0 | 0.6% | 14 | -21.4% | 8 | 3.3% | 10 |
| 7 | JAC | 18.9% | 5 | 23.0% | 2-1 | -1.9% | 17 | -25.6% | 4 | -4.9% | 26 |
| 8 | SEA | 18.8% | 8 | 17.6% | 3-0 | -0.6% | 16 | -22.0% | 7 | -2.5% | 21 |
| 9 | STL | 18.1% | 12 | 25.6% | 2-1 | -1.9% | 18 | -17.5% | 9 | 2.5% | 13 |
| 10 | IND | 14.1% | 13 | 15.8% | 3-0 | 25.2% | 3 | 15.9% | 29 | 4.8% | 4 |
| 11 | BUF | 12.7% | 9 | 7.0% | 1-2 | 3.6% | 10 | -2.4% | 17 | 6.8% | 2 |
| 12 | NYJ | 11.8% | 15 | 12.1% | 2-1 | 20.4% | 4 | 4.6% | 20 | -4.1% | 24 |
| 13 | WAS | 7.3% | 21 | 8.9% | 1-2 | 12.1% | 7 | 7.1% | 23 | 2.3% | 14 |
| 14 | DAL | 3.6% | 16 | 1.6% | 1-1 | 3.3% | 11 | -8.5% | 13 | -8.2% | 30 |
| 15 | NE | -0.6% | 14 | -2.6% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 8 | 14.0% | 27 | 3.4% | 9 |
| 16 | NYG | -2.5% | 18 | 3.0% | 1-2 | 14.7% | 5 | 16.2% | 30 | -0.9% | 18 |
| TEAM | TOTAL VOA |
LAST WEEK |
NON-ADJ VOA |
W-L | OFFENSE VOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE VOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | PIT | -3.8% | 20 | -12.5% | 1-2 | -20.3% | 28 | -23.8% | 5 | -7.3% | 28 |
| 18 | SF | -5.2% | 10 | -9.1% | 1-2 | 6.7% | 9 | 14.9% | 28 | 3.0% | 11 |
| 19 | MIN | -5.8% | 17 | -8.8% | 2-1 | -11.6% | 23 | -8.9% | 11 | -3.1% | 23 |
| 20 | ATL | -10.2% | 7 | -0.8% | 2-1 | -8.0% | 20 | -14.2% | 10 | -16.4% | 32 |
| 21 | KC | -10.3% | 19 | -8.3% | 0-2 | -20.1% | 27 | -8.6% | 12 | 1.2% | 16 |
| 22 | CAR | -11.4% | 23 | -13.3% | 1-2 | -15.7% | 24 | -2.6% | 16 | 1.7% | 15 |
| 23 | DEN | -15.2% | 24 | -13.4% | 2-1 | -8.0% | 21 | -0.3% | 18 | -7.4% | 29 |
| 24 | MIA | -18.4% | 26 | -4.9% | 1-2 | -19.7% | 26 | -5.7% | 14 | -4.4% | 25 |
| 25 | DET | -20.6% | 28 | -23.8% | 0-3 | -2.6% | 19 | 8.8% | 25 | -9.2% | 31 |
| 26 | GB | -22.5% | 22 | -20.2% | 1-2 | -8.5% | 22 | 7.0% | 22 | -7.0% | 27 |
| 27 | ARI | -30.5% | 25 | -24.3% | 1-2 | -15.8% | 25 | 11.9% | 26 | -2.8% | 22 |
| 28 | CLE | -31.1% | 27 | -37.4% | 0-3 | -26.3% | 29 | 8.6% | 24 | 3.8% | 6 |
| 29 | TB | -40.6% | 30 | -42.0% | 0-3 | -35.2% | 31 | 4.4% | 19 | -1.0% | 19 |
| 30 | HOU | -46.9% | 29 | -39.3% | 0-3 | 2.5% | 12 | 52.2% | 32 | 2.7% | 12 |
| 31 | TEN | -55.2% | 31 | -49.6% | 0-3 | -31.5% | 30 | 21.6% | 31 | -2.1% | 20 |
| 32 | OAK | -76.5% | 32 | -91.9% | 0-2 | -73.7% | 32 | 6.9% | 21 | 4.0% | 5 |
| DAVE (DVOA ADJUSTED FOR VARIATION EARLY) |
||||||||||
| TEAM | TOTAL VOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
OFFENSE VOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE VOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | SD | 42.7% | 2 | 2-0 | 21.8% | 2 | -19.9% | 2 | 0.9% | 11 |
| 2 | SEA | 33.3% | 1 | 3-0 | 21.6% | 3 | -13.0% | 4 | -1.3% | 22 |
| 3 | CHI | 24.6% | 5 | 3-0 | 3.2% | 9 | -16.5% | 3 | 4.8% | 1 |
| 4 | PHI | 23.7% | 6 | 2-1 | 16.6% | 4 | -5.3% | 10 | 1.9% | 6 |
| 5 | IND | 23.6% | 4 | 3-0 | 29.3% | 1 | 5.2% | 27 | -0.5% | 19 |
| 6 | BAL | 22.3% | 7 | 3-0 | -2.8% | 16 | -23.7% | 1 | 1.4% | 8 |
| 7 | CIN | 21.7% | 3 | 3-0 | 15.5% | 5 | -5.3% | 9 | 0.9% | 12 |
| 8 | JAC | 9.6% | 9 | 2-1 | 1.5% | 11 | -9.5% | 5 | -1.3% | 23 |
| 9 | PIT | 9.6% | 10 | 1-2 | 3.1% | 10 | -8.6% | 6 | -2.0% | 25 |
| 10 | DEN | 7.6% | 11 | 2-1 | 10.4% | 7 | -0.5% | 18 | -3.3% | 29 |
| 11 | WAS | 5.0% | 17 | 1-2 | 1.5% | 12 | -1.2% | 16 | 2.3% | 4 |
| 12 | NE | 4.8% | 12 | 2-1 | 13.2% | 6 | 8.6% | 30 | 0.3% | 14 |
| 13 | CAR | 4.0% | 14 | 1-2 | 1.1% | 13 | -3.0% | 13 | -0.1% | 16 |
| 14 | ATL | 2.7% | 8 | 2-1 | -1.1% | 15 | -8.4% | 7 | -4.6% | 31 |
| 15 | KC | 1.9% | 13 | 0-2 | -4.4% | 18 | -6.6% | 8 | -0.3% | 17 |
| 16 | NYG | 1.0% | 15 | 1-2 | 5.3% | 8 | 3.9% | 24 | -0.5% | 18 |
| TEAM | TOTAL VOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
OFFENSE VOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE VOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | DAL | 0.1% | 16 | 1-1 | -1.0% | 14 | -3.3% | 12 | -2.2% | 26 |
| 18 | MIA | -6.0% | 18 | 1-2 | -11.6% | 26 | -4.2% | 11 | 1.4% | 9 |
| 19 | NO | -8.7% | 31 | 3-0 | -10.1% | 25 | -0.2% | 19 | 1.2% | 10 |
| 20 | STL | -9.8% | 26 | 2-1 | -8.0% | 21 | 1.2% | 20 | -0.7% | 20 |
| 21 | BUF | -10.7% | 20 | 1-2 | -11.9% | 28 | 3.0% | 22 | 4.2% | 2 |
| 22 | DET | -12.2% | 22 | 0-3 | -3.5% | 17 | 5.1% | 26 | -3.6% | 30 |
| 23 | NYJ | -13.3% | 27 | 2-1 | -5.5% | 19 | 8.1% | 29 | 0.2% | 15 |
| 24 | MIN | -14.3% | 23 | 2-1 | -14.3% | 29 | -1.7% | 14 | -1.7% | 24 |
| 25 | CLE | -15.8% | 21 | 0-3 | -16.4% | 30 | 1.4% | 21 | 2.0% | 5 |
| 26 | GB | -16.0% | 25 | 1-2 | -8.9% | 22 | 3.8% | 23 | -3.3% | 28 |
| 27 | TB | -17.5% | 19 | 0-3 | -17.0% | 31 | -0.7% | 17 | -1.3% | 21 |
| 28 | SF | -18.2% | 24 | 1-2 | -9.2% | 23 | 6.5% | 28 | -2.5% | 27 |
| 29 | ARI | -21.4% | 28 | 1-2 | -11.8% | 27 | 5.0% | 25 | -4.7% | 32 |
| 30 | TEN | -22.9% | 29 | 0-3 | -9.4% | 24 | 13.8% | 31 | 0.3% | 13 |
| 31 | HOU | -29.2% | 32 | 0-3 | -7.6% | 20 | 23.1% | 32 | 1.4% | 7 |
| 32 | OAK | -32.0% | 30 | 0-2 | -35.8% | 32 | -1.5% | 15 | 2.3% | 3 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6006820
[2] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa