by Aaron Schatz
Commentary now available on FOXSports.com [1]. This week, we add opponent adjustments for the first time. I'm also doing the full tables for the first time, including estimated wins, variance, past schedule, and future schedule. How about the Chiefs jumping so high? You gotta love those early blowouts.
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 4 of 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [2].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. Opponent adjustments are currently set at 40% and will increase each week until they are full strength after Week 10. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
DAVE is the new early-season formula that combines early-season performance with our preseason projection to get a more accurate picture of how well teams will play over the course of the entire season. This is the rating used to rank teams at FOXSports.com. After Week 4, the preseason projection counts for 57.5% of the rating. (DAVE stands for "DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early.")
To save people some time, please use the zlionsfan template for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
DAVE | RANK |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | CHI | 51.4% | 3 | 28.7% | 2 | 63.5% | 4-0 | 15.3% | 6 | -25.3% | 4 | 10.8% | 1 |
| 2 | SD | 50.5% | 1 | 34.1% | 1 | 69.0% | 2-1 | 14.1% | 8 | -33.3% | 2 | 3.0% | 9 |
| 3 | BAL | 41.7% | 2 | 18.0% | 7 | 56.9% | 4-0 | -6.9% | 20 | -42.6% | 1 | 6.0% | 4 |
| 4 | PHI | 41.0% | 4 | 24.8% | 3 | 40.7% | 3-1 | 26.6% | 1 | -11.9% | 9 | 2.6% | 10 |
| 5 | KC | 37.9% | 21 | 20.7% | 6 | 39.5% | 1-2 | -0.3% | 16 | -28.2% | 3 | 10.0% | 2 |
| 6 | DAL | 33.2% | 14 | 13.2% | 9 | 33.1% | 2-1 | 19.3% | 3 | -18.3% | 7 | -4.4% | 27 |
| 7 | WAS | 18.2% | 13 | 9.9% | 10 | 16.2% | 2-2 | 16.4% | 4 | 2.6% | 18 | 4.3% | 5 |
| 8 | STL | 15.1% | 9 | -7.3% | 19 | 31.9% | 3-1 | 5.2% | 10 | -9.8% | 11 | 0.1% | 15 |
| 9 | NO | 14.7% | 5 | -8.8% | 21 | 19.1% | 3-1 | 4.6% | 11 | -9.2% | 12 | 0.9% | 14 |
| 10 | IND | 14.6% | 10 | 22.5% | 4 | 22.6% | 4-0 | 24.4% | 2 | 8.9% | 25 | -0.9% | 16 |
| 11 | NE | 11.7% | 15 | 9.3% | 11 | 13.1% | 3-1 | 15.1% | 7 | 7.2% | 23 | 3.8% | 6 |
| 12 | BUF | 11.5% | 11 | -8.1% | 20 | 8.6% | 2-2 | 1.8% | 12 | -7.7% | 14 | 2.0% | 11 |
| 13 | CIN | 9.9% | 6 | 15.6% | 8 | 8.4% | 3-1 | 1.4% | 13 | -5.4% | 15 | 3.0% | 8 |
| 14 | JAC | 8.1% | 7 | 6.3% | 15 | 7.2% | 2-2 | -1.3% | 17 | -12.6% | 8 | -3.2% | 25 |
| 15 | ATL | 6.9% | 20 | 8.2% | 12 | 23.3% | 3-1 | -9.6% | 22 | -24.0% | 5 | -7.5% | 32 |
| 16 | NYG | 5.6% | 16 | 3.9% | 17 | 3.0% | 1-2 | 16.3% | 5 | 9.8% | 27 | -0.9% | 17 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
DAVE | RANK |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | CAR | -2.4% | 22 | 5.8% | 16 | -5.1% | 2-2 | 1.0% | 14 | 4.9% | 22 | 1.5% | 13 |
| 18 | NYJ | -3.4% | 12 | -16.4% | 25 | -1.3% | 2-2 | 8.8% | 9 | 13.8% | 28 | 1.5% | 12 |
| 19 | MIN | -3.7% | 19 | -12.3% | 23 | -12.5% | 2-2 | -12.4% | 23 | -10.2% | 10 | -1.6% | 20 |
| 20 | PIT | -4.3% | 17 | 7.6% | 14 | -12.5% | 1-2 | -18.4% | 28 | -21.4% | 6 | -7.3% | 30 |
| 21 | SEA | -5.2% | 8 | 21.1% | 5 | -5.2% | 3-1 | -12.6% | 25 | -8.8% | 13 | -1.4% | 19 |
| 22 | DEN | -6.8% | 23 | 8.1% | 13 | -13.4% | 2-1 | -4.7% | 19 | -5.3% | 16 | -7.4% | 31 |
| 23 | MIA | -15.1% | 24 | -6.2% | 18 | 4.1% | 1-2 | -17.3% | 27 | -4.4% | 17 | -2.2% | 21 |
| 24 | CLE | -15.3% | 28 | -11.1% | 22 | -22.8% | 1-3 | -15.0% | 26 | 7.5% | 24 | 7.2% | 3 |
| 25 | DET | -19.8% | 25 | -13.0% | 24 | -26.9% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 15 | 17.1% | 29 | -3.1% | 24 |
| 26 | GB | -23.4% | 26 | -17.2% | 26 | -26.9% | 1-2 | -12.6% | 24 | 4.2% | 20 | -6.6% | 29 |
| 27 | SF | -32.2% | 18 | -27.9% | 29 | -37.8% | 1-3 | -7.0% | 21 | 22.4% | 30 | -2.7% | 23 |
| 28 | TB | -33.3% | 29 | -17.5% | 27 | -42.0% | 0-3 | -27.9% | 29 | 4.4% | 21 | -1.0% | 18 |
| 29 | HOU | -38.7% | 30 | -28.1% | 30 | -36.9% | 1-3 | -2.8% | 18 | 39.0% | 32 | 3.1% | 7 |
| 30 | ARI | -44.6% | 27 | -32.0% | 31 | -38.9% | 1-3 | -29.6% | 30 | 9.7% | 26 | -5.3% | 28 |
| 31 | OAK | -50.1% | 32 | -26.8% | 28 | -67.4% | 0-3 | -43.5% | 32 | 4.1% | 19 | -2.5% | 22 |
| 32 | TEN | -62.3% | 31 | -36.5% | 32 | -61.6% | 0-4 | -31.7% | 31 | 26.7% | 31 | -4.0% | 26 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 1 | CHI | 51.4% | 4-0 | 3.6 | 1 | -17.4% | 28 | -10.1% | 32 | 4.0% | 28 |
| 2 | SD | 50.5% | 2-1 | 3.1 | 4 | -17.7% | 29 | -4.4% | 25 | 10.9% | 13 |
| 3 | BAL | 41.7% | 4-0 | 3.5 | 2 | -16.1% | 26 | -0.4% | 18 | 10.3% | 14 |
| 4 | PHI | 41.0% | 3-1 | 3.5 | 3 | -22.2% | 30 | 4.6% | 10 | 0.2% | 32 |
| 5 | KC | 37.9% | 1-2 | 2.9 | 5 | -7.3% | 23 | -2.1% | 21 | 51.6% | 2 |
| 6 | DAL | 33.2% | 2-1 | 2.8 | 7 | -9.0% | 25 | 0.7% | 16 | 23.8% | 4 |
| 7 | WAS | 18.2% | 2-2 | 2.6 | 9 | -0.4% | 15 | 6.1% | 8 | 13.6% | 8 |
| 8 | STL | 15.1% | 3-1 | 2.4 | 11 | -25.9% | 31 | -0.7% | 19 | 13.1% | 9 |
| 9 | NO | 14.7% | 3-1 | 2.4 | 10 | -8.5% | 24 | 4.3% | 11 | 18.8% | 6 |
| 10 | IND | 14.6% | 4-0 | 2.8 | 6 | -7.1% | 22 | -4.3% | 24 | 4.2% | 27 |
| 11 | NE | 11.7% | 3-1 | 2.3 | 12 | 2.8% | 13 | -8.0% | 27 | 7.9% | 17 |
| 12 | BUF | 11.5% | 2-2 | 2.3 | 13 | -2.6% | 18 | 1.3% | 14 | 4.7% | 25 |
| 13 | CIN | 9.9% | 3-1 | 2.2 | 15 | 7.5% | 11 | 4.8% | 9 | 17.5% | 7 |
| 14 | JAC | 8.1% | 2-2 | 2.0 | 18 | 26.7% | 1 | -8.2% | 28 | 20.5% | 5 |
| 15 | ATL | 6.9% | 3-1 | 2.7 | 8 | -16.4% | 27 | 7.4% | 4 | 59.0% | 1 |
| 16 | NYG | 5.6% | 1-2 | 2.2 | 14 | 12.6% | 9 | 7.4% | 5 | 2.9% | 29 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 17 | CAR | -2.4% | 2-2 | 2.1 | 17 | -3.8% | 19 | 11.1% | 2 | 10.9% | 12 |
| 18 | NYJ | -3.4% | 2-2 | 1.7 | 22 | -6.1% | 21 | -8.2% | 29 | 6.6% | 20 |
| 19 | MIN | -3.7% | 2-2 | 2.1 | 16 | 19.7% | 3 | -9.1% | 31 | 1.2% | 30 |
| 20 | PIT | -4.3% | 1-2 | 1.9 | 19 | 1.0% | 14 | 6.2% | 7 | 11.0% | 11 |
| 21 | SEA | -5.2% | 3-1 | 1.9 | 20 | -1.9% | 17 | -9.0% | 30 | 10.0% | 15 |
| 22 | DEN | -6.8% | 2-1 | 1.8 | 21 | 16.2% | 7 | 0.3% | 17 | 5.9% | 23 |
| 23 | MIA | -15.1% | 1-2 | 1.4 | 24 | -31.3% | 32 | 7.2% | 6 | 4.8% | 24 |
| 24 | CLE | -15.3% | 1-3 | 1.2 | 26 | 5.4% | 12 | 4.1% | 12 | 6.2% | 22 |
| 25 | DET | -19.8% | 0-4 | 1.2 | 25 | 12.6% | 8 | -0.9% | 20 | 4.5% | 26 |
| 26 | GB | -23.4% | 1-2 | 1.4 | 23 | 21.8% | 2 | -3.2% | 23 | 9.1% | 16 |
| 27 | SF | -32.2% | 1-3 | 1.1 | 27 | 12.3% | 10 | -2.3% | 22 | 47.2% | 3 |
| 28 | TB | -33.3% | 0-3 | 1.1 | 29 | -1.3% | 16 | 14.0% | 1 | 6.9% | 19 |
| 29 | HOU | -38.7% | 1-3 | 1.0 | 30 | 19.5% | 4 | -7.7% | 26 | 0.6% | 31 |
| 30 | ARI | -44.6% | 1-3 | 1.1 | 28 | -3.9% | 20 | 3.9% | 13 | 6.3% | 21 |
| 31 | OAK | -50.1% | 0-3 | 0.5 | 31 | 19.2% | 5 | 0.8% | 15 | 7.7% | 18 |
| 32 | TEN | -62.3% | 0-4 | 0.0 | 32 | 16.3% | 6 | 8.1% | 3 | 11.3% | 10 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6027304
[2] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#estimated_wins
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#variance