by Aaron Schatz
Here's a look at this week's DVOA and DAVE ratings, and here's a link to the commentary on FOXSports.com [1].
Even more than in 2005, the NFL is dramatically split between good teams and bad teams, with lots of moderately good teams bunched very close together in our numbers. Note that the difference in DVOA between Atlanta (20) and Buffalo (21) is actually bigger than the difference between Atlanta (20) and St. Louis (9).
I meant to write to write a bunch of extra interesting tidbits here related to the Chicago-Arizona game, but I still have to finish an article for the New York Sun, so folks will have to wait until later in the week to find out:
I'll hit these topics on the FO FOX blog [2] later this week. Make sure you check out the FOX blog post on Edgerrin James [3], particularly if you want to find out the three running backs since 2000 who actually managed worse PAR ratings in a single game.
By the way, while DVOA is no longer the "official" FOXSports.com power rankings, we have created a keyword at FOX that will allow you to always access the latest DVOA commentary. Simply use keyword "DVOA" at FOXSports.com.
A quick note: I tweaked DAVE a little bit this week to count the preseason projection a little less for the six teams with a bye in the upcoming week. To be honest, I made a mistake in creating a set of coefficients based on weeks rather than games, and when I upgrade DAVE next summer, I'll fix that. But we're at the point where the use of the projection drops significantly each week, which would lead to a weird situation where St. Louis and New Orleans -- two teams where the projection and Weeks 1-6 differ substantially -- both ranked low again this week, then suddenly jumped up next week, even though neither team actually played a game. So for the six teams on bye this week, I counted the projection 20%, much closer to the 15% that we'll use for every team after Week 7. (Next week, I'll do something similar for the teams on bye in Week 8, and then it won't matter anymore because DAVE will go away for the year.)
The stats pages are now fully updated, including offense, defense, special teams, offensive line, and defensive line.
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 6 of 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [4].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. Opponent adjustments are currently set at 60% and will increase each week until they are full strength after Week 10. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
DAVE is the new early-season formula that combines early-season performance with our preseason projection to get a more accurate picture of how well teams will play over the course of the entire season. This is the rating used to rank teams at FOXSports.com. After Week 6, the preseason projection counts for 32.5% of the rating for most teams, and 20% of the rating for teams with a bye in the coming week. (DAVE stands for "DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early.") The use of the preseason projection will end after Week 8.
To save people some time, please use the zlionsfan template for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
DAVE | RANK |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | SD | 47.3% | 3 | 39.1% | 1 | 60.7% | 4-1 | 20.9% | 2 | -22.9% | 5 | 3.4% | 7 |
| 2 | CHI | 46.7% | 1 | 39.0% | 2 | 55.2% | 6-0 | 5.4% | 9 | -28.6% | 2 | 12.7% | 1 |
| 3 | PHI | 39.9% | 2 | 31.1% | 3 | 34.2% | 4-2 | 26.1% | 1 | -14.6% | 9 | -0.8% | 18 |
| 4 | JAC | 31.7% | 4 | 23.0% | 4 | 33.9% | 3-2 | 4.8% | 10 | -27.4% | 3 | -0.6% | 17 |
| 5 | NYG | 26.5% | 7 | 18.8% | 5 | 23.1% | 3-2 | 20.2% | 3 | -5.6% | 13 | 0.7% | 13 |
| 6 | DAL | 21.1% | 9 | 13.7% | 9 | 23.0% | 3-2 | 4.0% | 11 | -19.5% | 6 | -2.4% | 22 |
| 7 | BAL | 18.6% | 6 | 15.0% | 7 | 30.8% | 4-2 | -17.6% | 27 | -32.8% | 1 | 3.4% | 9 |
| 8 | PIT | 18.1% | 20 | 17.5% | 6 | 6.8% | 2-3 | 0.9% | 13 | -23.4% | 4 | -6.2% | 31 |
| 9 | STL | 13.2% | 8 | 5.8% | 15 | 26.3% | 4-2 | 13.9% | 5 | 0.6% | 18 | -0.2% | 14 |
| 10 | NO | 11.0% | 11 | 4.0% | 17 | 16.2% | 5-1 | 7.2% | 8 | 1.4% | 19 | 5.2% | 4 |
| 11 | NE | 10.1% | 10 | 9.3% | 13 | 20.7% | 4-1 | 12.0% | 7 | 5.5% | 22 | 3.7% | 5 |
| 12 | DEN | 9.0% | 15 | 12.3% | 11 | 10.3% | 4-1 | -5.6% | 19 | -14.9% | 8 | -0.3% | 15 |
| 13 | IND | 7.3% | 16 | 14.1% | 8 | 13.2% | 5-0 | 19.5% | 4 | 11.1% | 28 | -1.1% | 20 |
| 14 | CAR | 5.3% | 18 | 7.4% | 14 | 4.5% | 4-2 | 2.7% | 12 | -5.3% | 14 | -2.7% | 24 |
| 15 | CIN | 4.4% | 13 | 9.4% | 12 | 8.6% | 3-2 | -3.1% | 15 | -4.1% | 16 | 3.4% | 8 |
| 16 | SEA | 4.3% | 19 | 13.5% | 10 | -1.8% | 4-1 | -1.4% | 14 | -5.0% | 15 | 0.7% | 12 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
DAVE | RANK |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | KC | 4.3% | 5 | 5.5% | 16 | 0.2% | 2-3 | -9.1% | 21 | -5.8% | 12 | 7.5% | 3 |
| 18 | WAS | 3.8% | 14 | 3.8% | 18 | -0.1% | 2-4 | 12.6% | 6 | 9.8% | 26 | 1.1% | 11 |
| 19 | MIN | 1.4% | 17 | -5.1% | 20 | -0.7% | 3-2 | -9.4% | 22 | -13.9% | 10 | -3.2% | 26 |
| 20 | ATL | -0.2% | 12 | 2.9% | 19 | 7.7% | 3-2 | -13.7% | 26 | -19.0% | 7 | -5.4% | 28 |
| 21 | BUF | -13.8% | 21 | -16.7% | 24 | -13.9% | 2-4 | -12.8% | 25 | 4.6% | 21 | 3.5% | 6 |
| 22 | DET | -18.3% | 24 | -14.9% | 23 | -19.7% | 1-5 | -5.2% | 18 | 10.4% | 27 | -2.6% | 23 |
| 23 | TB | -18.3% | 26 | -14.3% | 22 | -27.4% | 1-4 | -11.1% | 24 | 2.6% | 20 | -4.6% | 27 |
| 24 | MIA | -20.0% | 27 | -13.4% | 21 | -10.3% | 1-5 | -20.0% | 29 | -3.0% | 17 | -3.0% | 25 |
| 25 | ARI | -20.7% | 29 | -20.7% | 27 | -16.7% | 1-5 | -22.4% | 30 | -12.0% | 11 | -10.3% | 32 |
| 26 | GB | -21.0% | 22 | -18.3% | 26 | -28.4% | 1-4 | -7.0% | 20 | 8.3% | 23 | -5.8% | 29 |
| 27 | NYJ | -22.0% | 28 | -23.3% | 28 | -18.0% | 3-3 | -5.2% | 17 | 15.9% | 29 | -0.9% | 19 |
| 28 | CLE | -22.5% | 23 | -17.8% | 25 | -25.3% | 1-4 | -23.0% | 31 | 9.2% | 25 | 9.7% | 2 |
| 29 | SF | -26.5% | 25 | -26.1% | 29 | -31.3% | 2-4 | -3.5% | 16 | 22.7% | 31 | -0.3% | 16 |
| 30 | TEN | -39.8% | 32 | -35.3% | 31 | -35.8% | 1-5 | -19.4% | 28 | 18.9% | 30 | -1.5% | 21 |
| 31 | HOU | -42.1% | 30 | -35.0% | 30 | -42.5% | 1-4 | -9.4% | 23 | 34.7% | 32 | 2.0% | 10 |
| 32 | OAK | -51.7% | 31 | -38.0% | 32 | -59.0% | 0-5 | -37.0% | 32 | 8.8% | 24 | -5.8% | 30 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 1 | SD | 47.3% | 4-1 | 5.0 | 2 | -13.5% | 30 | -6.0% | 25 | 6.9% | 21 |
| 2 | CHI | 46.7% | 6-0 | 4.9 | 3 | -13.6% | 31 | -6.8% | 26 | 29.3% | 5 |
| 3 | PHI | 39.9% | 4-2 | 5.3 | 1 | -6.2% | 26 | 3.7% | 10 | 2.8% | 32 |
| 4 | JAC | 31.7% | 3-2 | 4.0 | 5 | 8.4% | 6 | -11.0% | 31 | 34.1% | 4 |
| 5 | NYG | 26.5% | 3-2 | 4.2 | 4 | 11.0% | 3 | 7.3% | 4 | 8.1% | 17 |
| 6 | DAL | 21.1% | 3-2 | 3.5 | 13 | -1.1% | 18 | 6.3% | 7 | 17.1% | 11 |
| 7 | BAL | 18.6% | 4-2 | 3.7 | 7 | -6.2% | 25 | -1.5% | 19 | 15.0% | 13 |
| 8 | PIT | 18.1% | 2-3 | 3.6 | 10 | 13.5% | 2 | -4.4% | 23 | 15.1% | 12 |
| 9 | STL | 13.2% | 4-2 | 3.7 | 8 | -12.2% | 29 | 1.4% | 16 | 11.2% | 15 |
| 10 | NO | 11.0% | 5-1 | 3.5 | 12 | -2.8% | 22 | 5.3% | 9 | 8.8% | 16 |
| 11 | NE | 10.1% | 4-1 | 3.7 | 9 | -7.1% | 27 | -9.0% | 30 | 5.6% | 25 |
| 12 | DEN | 9.0% | 4-1 | 3.5 | 11 | -0.9% | 17 | 1.2% | 17 | 11.4% | 14 |
| 13 | IND | 7.3% | 5-0 | 3.8 | 6 | -7.6% | 28 | 0.4% | 18 | 5.9% | 24 |
| 14 | CAR | 5.3% | 4-2 | 3.2 | 17 | -1.7% | 20 | 11.9% | 3 | 6.9% | 20 |
| 15 | CIN | 4.4% | 3-2 | 3.0 | 18 | -1.4% | 19 | 6.1% | 8 | 7.9% | 18 |
| 16 | SEA | 4.3% | 4-1 | 3.4 | 15 | 7.9% | 7 | -9.0% | 29 | 7.5% | 19 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 17 | KC | 4.3% | 2-3 | 2.9 | 19 | -3.1% | 23 | 2.3% | 14 | 46.8% | 1 |
| 18 | WAS | 3.8% | 2-4 | 3.3 | 16 | -0.3% | 15 | 13.2% | 2 | 17.3% | 10 |
| 19 | MIN | 1.4% | 3-2 | 3.4 | 14 | 4.7% | 12 | -6.8% | 27 | 4.1% | 29 |
| 20 | ATL | -0.2% | 3-2 | 2.7 | 20 | 0.6% | 14 | 6.3% | 6 | 45.2% | 2 |
| 21 | BUF | -13.8% | 2-4 | 2.4 | 23 | -0.3% | 16 | -3.0% | 22 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 22 | DET | -18.3% | 1-5 | 2.0 | 26 | 6.1% | 10 | -2.8% | 21 | 4.6% | 28 |
| 23 | TB | -18.3% | 1-4 | 2.4 | 22 | 3.1% | 13 | 15.4% | 1 | 6.7% | 22 |
| 24 | MIA | -20.0% | 1-5 | 1.8 | 27 | -17.9% | 32 | 2.4% | 13 | 5.3% | 26 |
| 25 | ARI | -20.7% | 1-5 | 2.5 | 21 | 8.4% | 5 | -1.9% | 20 | 22.1% | 8 |
| 26 | GB | -21.0% | 1-4 | 2.2 | 25 | 15.4% | 1 | -5.7% | 24 | 5.0% | 27 |
| 27 | NYJ | -22.0% | 3-3 | 1.8 | 28 | -4.1% | 24 | -13.1% | 32 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 28 | CLE | -22.5% | 1-4 | 1.5 | 29 | -2.5% | 21 | 3.4% | 11 | 3.6% | 30 |
| 29 | SF | -26.5% | 2-4 | 2.2 | 24 | 6.4% | 8 | 2.7% | 12 | 40.5% | 3 |
| 30 | TEN | -39.8% | 1-5 | 1.3 | 30 | 6.3% | 9 | 6.8% | 5 | 21.0% | 9 |
| 31 | HOU | -42.1% | 1-4 | 1.1 | 31 | 10.4% | 4 | -7.5% | 28 | 3.5% | 31 |
| 32 | OAK | -51.7% | 0-5 | 0.5 | 32 | 5.2% | 11 | 1.8% | 15 | 5.9% | 23 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6072082
[2] http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/footballoutsiders
[3] http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/footballoutsiders/2006/10/17/Edgerrin_James_and_the_Terrible_Horrible_No_Good_Very_Bad_Day
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#estimated_wins
[6] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#variance