by Aaron Schatz
Here's a look at this week's DVOA and DAVE ratings, with commentary available now on FOXSports.com [1].
At this point the ratings are starting to look really weird to the average fan. Undefeated Indianapolis and all the 5-1 teams are all beneath teams that are 4-2, 4-3, and even 2-4 (Pittsburgh). With this in mind, this week's commentary really tries to explain DVOA and why it is different than conventional wisdom for each specific team. My hope is that this will help those readers who are a) new to DVOA and b) open-minded.
Some mathy stuff here for the FO readers: In the last couple of weeks, I've noted the gap between the top 20 teams and the bottom 12. A similar gap has opened up between the top 4 teams and the teams ranked 5-20. In that middle section, the teams are really packed close together, which makes a sentence like "New Orleans is only ranked 12th" sound a lot more severe than what the reality is. For a comparison, check out last year's DVOA ratings from this same week [2]. Last year, there were only seven teams between 0% and 15% at this point in the season. This year, there are 15, or nearly half the league.
On the other hand, eight teams from last year's Week 8 would fit into the space between the Giants (fourth right now) and the Ravens (fifth).
One more tidbit: Last week, I said I would go looking to see if the Chicago-Arizona game had the biggest difference in single-game DVOA between two teams where the team with the lower rating actually won. I never got to this on the blog over at FOX, so I wanted to mention it here. It turns out the answer is no. In fact, there are two games in the last two years where the difference was even greater and the team that played better overall lost: Pittsburgh's 33-30 victory over the Giants in Week 15 of 2004, and Philadelphia's 17-16 victory over the Rams in Week 15 of 2005.
Remember that you can always use the keyword "DVOA" to access the latest DVOA commentary at FOXSports.com.
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 7 of 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [3].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. Opponent adjustments are currently set at 70% and will increase each week until they are full strength after Week 10. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
DAVE is the new early-season formula that combines early-season performance with our preseason projection to get a more accurate picture of how well teams will play over the course of the entire season. (DAVE stands for "DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early.") This is the rating used to rank teams at FOXSports.com. At this point, the preseason projection is just 15% of the rating, and is not used at all for the four teams on bye in Week 8. Next week, we get rid of DAVE and start using WEIGHTED DVOA, which is based on 2006 only, but with early-season games given less value.
To save people some time, please use the zlionsfan template for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
DAVE | RANK |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | CHI | 45.0% | 2 | 39.4% | 1 | 55.2% | 6-0 | 5.4% | 10 | -26.8% | 2 | 12.7% | 1 |
| 2 | PHI | 39.2% | 3 | 35.2% | 2 | 33.6% | 4-3 | 25.0% | 2 | -15.1% | 8 | -0.8% | 18 |
| 3 | SD | 34.0% | 1 | 31.9% | 3 | 44.1% | 4-2 | 15.5% | 4 | -13.6% | 9 | 4.9% | 4 |
| 4 | NYG | 33.3% | 5 | 29.2% | 4 | 27.8% | 4-2 | 21.3% | 3 | -10.8% | 11 | 1.1% | 12 |
| 5 | BAL | 18.2% | 7 | 14.9% | 7 | 30.8% | 4-2 | -17.2% | 27 | -32.0% | 1 | 3.4% | 7 |
| 6 | PIT | 17.3% | 8 | 17.7% | 5 | 8.8% | 2-4 | 8.5% | 8 | -15.4% | 6 | -6.5% | 31 |
| 7 | NE | 14.8% | 11 | 14.2% | 8 | 27.6% | 5-1 | 11.7% | 6 | 1.3% | 22 | 4.3% | 5 |
| 8 | JAC | 14.1% | 4 | 12.4% | 9 | 17.9% | 3-3 | -3.7% | 19 | -19.1% | 4 | -1.2% | 19 |
| 9 | IND | 13.8% | 13 | 15.7% | 6 | 18.7% | 6-0 | 27.3% | 1 | 9.4% | 26 | -4.2% | 30 |
| 10 | STL | 11.8% | 9 | 6.5% | 14 | 26.3% | 4-2 | 13.0% | 5 | 1.0% | 21 | -0.2% | 15 |
| 11 | DAL | 11.8% | 6 | 9.9% | 12 | 11.6% | 3-3 | -1.9% | 16 | -15.5% | 5 | -1.8% | 23 |
| 12 | NO | 11.3% | 10 | 5.7% | 15 | 16.2% | 5-1 | 7.0% | 9 | 0.9% | 19 | 5.2% | 3 |
| 13 | KC | 10.1% | 17 | 10.0% | 11 | 3.6% | 3-3 | -2.8% | 18 | -9.4% | 13 | 3.5% | 6 |
| 14 | MIN | 9.6% | 19 | 5.5% | 16 | 11.7% | 4-2 | -10.8% | 24 | -20.6% | 3 | -0.1% | 14 |
| 15 | DEN | 9.3% | 12 | 11.1% | 10 | 12.0% | 5-1 | -4.6% | 20 | -15.3% | 7 | -1.3% | 20 |
| 16 | CIN | 7.7% | 15 | 9.1% | 13 | 8.9% | 4-2 | 0.4% | 13 | -5.1% | 14 | 2.3% | 9 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
DAVE | RANK |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | CAR | 4.0% | 14 | 5.4% | 17 | 2.3% | 4-3 | 3.3% | 11 | -2.5% | 17 | -1.8% | 24 |
| 18 | ATL | 0.1% | 20 | 1.7% | 18 | 4.3% | 4-2 | -6.7% | 22 | -9.6% | 12 | -2.9% | 27 |
| 19 | WAS | -3.6% | 18 | -3.8% | 20 | -5.4% | 2-5 | 11.1% | 7 | 16.8% | 28 | 2.1% | 10 |
| 20 | SEA | -5.1% | 16 | 0.2% | 19 | -14.5% | 4-2 | -7.5% | 23 | -2.8% | 16 | -0.4% | 17 |
| 21 | TB | -15.3% | 23 | -13.6% | 21 | -26.3% | 2-4 | -12.8% | 25 | 1.0% | 20 | -1.6% | 22 |
| 22 | GB | -15.7% | 26 | -15.2% | 22 | -20.7% | 2-4 | -6.3% | 21 | 5.6% | 24 | -3.8% | 29 |
| 23 | BUF | -16.8% | 21 | -17.3% | 23 | -20.5% | 2-5 | -14.9% | 26 | 4.3% | 23 | 2.4% | 8 |
| 24 | NYJ | -17.4% | 27 | -19.1% | 25 | -12.0% | 4-3 | 0.4% | 12 | 18.2% | 29 | 0.3% | 13 |
| 25 | DET | -19.3% | 22 | -19.3% | 26 | -19.3% | 1-6 | -1.3% | 14 | 15.4% | 27 | -2.6% | 25 |
| 26 | MIA | -20.1% | 24 | -20.1% | 27 | -9.3% | 1-6 | -20.5% | 28 | -3.0% | 15 | -2.7% | 26 |
| 27 | CLE | -20.2% | 28 | -18.2% | 24 | -25.3% | 1-5 | -21.4% | 30 | 7.2% | 25 | 8.5% | 2 |
| 28 | ARI | -24.3% | 25 | -23.6% | 28 | -16.9% | 1-6 | -26.6% | 31 | -12.7% | 10 | -10.4% | 32 |
| 29 | SF | -25.9% | 29 | -26.4% | 29 | -31.3% | 2-4 | -2.7% | 17 | 22.9% | 31 | -0.3% | 16 |
| 30 | HOU | -29.2% | 31 | -27.6% | 30 | -30.0% | 2-4 | -1.3% | 15 | 29.7% | 32 | 1.8% | 11 |
| 31 | OAK | -39.1% | 32 | -34.4% | 31 | -43.1% | 1-5 | -35.2% | 32 | 0.8% | 18 | -3.2% | 28 |
| 32 | TEN | -41.0% | 30 | -37.1% | 32 | -35.8% | 1-5 | -21.0% | 29 | 18.5% | 30 | -1.5% | 21 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 1 | CHI | 45.0% | 6-0 | 5.7 | 3 | -11.9% | 31 | -4.4% | 25 | 27.7% | 5 |
| 2 | PHI | 39.2% | 4-3 | 6.1 | 1 | -5.0% | 25 | 2.9% | 13 | 2.4% | 32 |
| 3 | SD | 34.0% | 4-2 | 4.9 | 4 | -8.6% | 28 | -6.4% | 28 | 9.8% | 17 |
| 4 | NYG | 33.3% | 4-2 | 5.7 | 2 | 9.4% | 2 | 3.6% | 12 | 8.5% | 19 |
| 5 | BAL | 18.2% | 4-2 | 4.4 | 8 | -4.5% | 24 | -0.6% | 19 | 12.7% | 15 |
| 6 | PIT | 17.3% | 2-4 | 4.1 | 12 | 7.6% | 6 | -2.6% | 21 | 16.8% | 10 |
| 7 | NE | 14.8% | 5-1 | 4.6 | 6 | -9.0% | 29 | -6.0% | 27 | 6.3% | 27 |
| 8 | JAC | 14.1% | 3-3 | 3.7 | 15 | 2.4% | 12 | -3.7% | 24 | 44.8% | 1 |
| 9 | IND | 13.8% | 6-0 | 4.7 | 5 | -6.3% | 26 | -1.1% | 20 | 6.8% | 24 |
| 10 | STL | 11.8% | 4-2 | 4.3 | 9 | -11.6% | 30 | 0.5% | 17 | 10.2% | 16 |
| 11 | DAL | 11.8% | 3-3 | 3.6 | 17 | 1.8% | 17 | 4.4% | 9 | 15.9% | 11 |
| 12 | NO | 11.3% | 5-1 | 4.1 | 11 | -1.1% | 22 | 5.3% | 7 | 8.0% | 21 |
| 13 | KC | 10.1% | 3-3 | 3.9 | 13 | 3.0% | 10 | -3.6% | 23 | 40.8% | 2 |
| 14 | MIN | 9.6% | 4-2 | 4.5 | 7 | 0.7% | 19 | -6.7% | 29 | 8.1% | 20 |
| 15 | DEN | 9.3% | 5-1 | 4.2 | 10 | -0.6% | 21 | 2.5% | 14 | 9.1% | 18 |
| 16 | CIN | 7.7% | 4-2 | 3.8 | 14 | 1.5% | 18 | 7.0% | 5 | 7.1% | 23 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 17 | CAR | 4.0% | 4-3 | 3.6 | 16 | 1.9% | 16 | 10.6% | 2 | 6.6% | 25 |
| 18 | ATL | 0.1% | 4-2 | 3.3 | 19 | 3.8% | 9 | 3.8% | 11 | 36.1% | 3 |
| 19 | WAS | -3.6% | 2-5 | 3.4 | 18 | 2.0% | 13 | 13.5% | 1 | 14.9% | 13 |
| 20 | SEA | -5.1% | 4-2 | 3.1 | 20 | 8.0% | 5 | -9.0% | 31 | 7.7% | 22 |
| 21 | TB | -15.3% | 2-4 | 2.7 | 22 | 9.4% | 3 | 9.4% | 3 | 6.5% | 26 |
| 22 | GB | -15.7% | 2-4 | 2.8 | 21 | 11.3% | 1 | -3.0% | 22 | 4.8% | 28 |
| 23 | BUF | -16.8% | 2-5 | 2.6 | 25 | 3.9% | 8 | -4.8% | 26 | 19.2% | 9 |
| 24 | NYJ | -17.4% | 4-3 | 2.5 | 26 | -7.8% | 27 | -8.0% | 30 | 21.9% | 8 |
| 25 | DET | -19.3% | 1-6 | 2.2 | 27 | 1.9% | 15 | -0.5% | 18 | 3.8% | 30 |
| 26 | MIA | -20.1% | 1-6 | 2.0 | 29 | -14.7% | 32 | 5.4% | 6 | 4.8% | 29 |
| 27 | CLE | -20.2% | 1-5 | 1.9 | 30 | 1.9% | 14 | 4.3% | 10 | 3.1% | 31 |
| 28 | ARI | -24.3% | 1-6 | 2.7 | 23 | -0.5% | 20 | 1.1% | 16 | 23.1% | 6 |
| 29 | SF | -25.9% | 2-4 | 2.7 | 24 | 5.3% | 7 | 1.8% | 15 | 31.6% | 4 |
| 30 | HOU | -29.2% | 2-4 | 2.1 | 28 | 9.2% | 4 | -10.0% | 32 | 15.4% | 12 |
| 31 | OAK | -39.1% | 1-5 | 1.2 | 32 | -1.5% | 23 | 4.9% | 8 | 14.0% | 14 |
| 32 | TEN | -41.0% | 1-5 | 1.5 | 31 | 2.6% | 11 | 8.0% | 4 | 22.0% | 7 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6094062
[2] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2005/10/25/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/3106/
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#estimated_wins
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#variance