by Aaron Schatz
Here's a look at this week's DVOA ratings. Extended commentary is finally posted (as of 1am EST, Wednesday) at FOXSports.com. This week is the first annual DVOA Commentary All-Optimism Special [1].
I assume that FO regulars do not need a reminder that the DVOA ratings are not adjusted for injuries, either past or future. But I'll give one anyway. DVOA ratings are not adjusted for injuries, either past or future.
Once again, Mike Harris has put together a Football Outsiders Playoff Odds Report [2] based on DVOA and the remaining schedule. The Playoff Odds Report now uses a new algorithm based on analysis of the actual results of the last few weeks of each season since 1997. This algorithm also includes a variable to account for the generally lower performance of warm-weather and dome teams when playing cold weather cities after November 1. (As I've written many times in the past, this is one piece of conventional wisdom that is absolutely true.) It also drops the chances of a team winning its final game if it has clinched a playoff spot and cannot change its seeding with a final win.
You'll notice there are actually two reports. One uses current WEIGHTED DVOA numbers. The other one sets the Philadelphia Eagles to 0%, based on how well they played last year after losing Donovan McNabb for the season. If you think it is wrong to consider McNabb's injury and not other injuries, then my suggestion is that you don't look at that report.
One last big piece of news: The long-awaited Football Outsiders T-shirts are finally available [3]! Yes, we opened a CafePress store like all the other sites out there. The FO shirts come in all kinds of shapes and sizes, and with two different taglines to go with the logo:
Some shirts have one line, some the other -- since we haven't opened a premium shop yet, we can only sell one of each type of shirt rather than offering a choice of taglines for each possible product. If the shirts prove to be super popular, we can take that next step. We're also trying to figure out how to do a shirt with some of Jason Beattie's cartoons, but we can't use Gil Thorp, lest we get sued. We'll keep working on that one.
(One of the first comments in today's thread suggested a ROBO-PUNTER jersey. Great idea, we'll hopefully have one ready after Thanksgiving.)
You know how I always say that a question asked through e-mail is much more likely to be answered than a question asked in a discussion thread? That goes triple for any questions or suggestions you have regarding the FO shirts and other swag.
Offense, defense, special teams are updated; individual pages and adjusted line yards will be updated later tonight.
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 11 of 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [4].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
WEIGHTED DVOA is based on a formula which discounts games more than eight weeks ago in order to get a more accurate picture of how teams are playing now. This is the formula used for the rankings at FOXSports.com.
Remember that you can always use the keyword "DVOA" to access the latest DVOA commentary at FOXSports.com.
To save people some time, please use the zlionsfan template for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | CHI | 34.3% | 2 | 9-1 | 34.1% | 1 | -3.4% | 19 | -28.8% | 1 | 8.9% | 1 |
| 2 | SD | 33.9% | 4 | 8-2 | 32.8% | 2 | 27.1% | 2 | -1.9% | 16 | 4.9% | 5 |
| 3 | PHI | 28.2% | 1 | 5-5 | 25.2% | 4 | 14.4% | 4 | -15.4% | 5 | -1.7% | 25 |
| 4 | JAC | 24.9% | 7 | 6-4 | 24.1% | 5 | -3.0% | 18 | -26.2% | 2 | 1.7% | 11 |
| 5 | BAL | 24.5% | 8 | 8-2 | 23.1% | 7 | -3.9% | 20 | -22.8% | 3 | 5.6% | 3 |
| 6 | DAL | 24.5% | 6 | 6-4 | 25.7% | 3 | 9.9% | 7 | -15.8% | 4 | -1.3% | 22 |
| 7 | NYG | 23.1% | 3 | 6-4 | 23.8% | 6 | 13.6% | 5 | -9.2% | 8 | 0.3% | 16 |
| 8 | NE | 18.8% | 9 | 7-3 | 21.6% | 8 | 8.6% | 8 | -8.2% | 10 | 2.0% | 8 |
| 9 | IND | 16.8% | 5 | 9-1 | 15.9% | 9 | 28.4% | 1 | 8.5% | 25 | -3.0% | 28 |
| 10 | DEN | 7.8% | 10 | 7-3 | 9.2% | 10 | 3.0% | 12 | -4.6% | 14 | 0.2% | 17 |
| 11 | KC | 6.7% | 11 | 6-4 | 7.4% | 11 | 2.4% | 13 | -2.8% | 15 | 1.5% | 13 |
| 12 | CIN | 6.6% | 14 | 5-5 | 4.3% | 14 | 15.3% | 3 | 10.4% | 27 | 1.8% | 10 |
| 13 | CAR | 4.7% | 16 | 6-4 | 7.0% | 12 | 0.3% | 16 | -7.7% | 12 | -3.3% | 29 |
| 14 | PIT | 4.7% | 12 | 4-6 | 4.9% | 13 | 1.4% | 14 | -10.4% | 7 | -7.1% | 31 |
| 15 | NO | 4.2% | 13 | 6-4 | 2.0% | 15 | 12.1% | 6 | 9.4% | 26 | 1.5% | 12 |
| 16 | STL | -3.4% | 15 | 4-6 | -4.7% | 16 | 3.1% | 11 | 5.5% | 21 | -1.1% | 20 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | MIN | -5.4% | 18 | 4-6 | -6.3% | 18 | -17.1% | 28 | -11.5% | 6 | 0.2% | 18 |
| 18 | WAS | -6.5% | 19 | 3-7 | -7.7% | 20 | 8.2% | 9 | 15.9% | 29 | 1.2% | 14 |
| 19 | CLE | -7.5% | 24 | 3-7 | -5.8% | 17 | -19.4% | 29 | -5.8% | 13 | 6.2% | 2 |
| 20 | MIA | -9.0% | 20 | 4-6 | -7.0% | 19 | -15.9% | 27 | -9.2% | 9 | -2.3% | 27 |
| 21 | GB | -9.9% | 17 | 4-6 | -8.6% | 21 | -2.3% | 17 | 5.4% | 20 | -2.3% | 26 |
| 22 | ATL | -10.5% | 21 | 5-5 | -10.4% | 22 | -5.1% | 21 | 1.7% | 19 | -3.7% | 30 |
| 23 | NYJ | -12.4% | 23 | 5-5 | -13.6% | 24 | 0.4% | 15 | 16.2% | 30 | 3.4% | 6 |
| 24 | BUF | -15.0% | 25 | 4-6 | -17.2% | 26 | -13.2% | 25 | 6.9% | 23 | 5.1% | 4 |
| 25 | SEA | -15.7% | 22 | 6-4 | -17.4% | 27 | -9.3% | 24 | 8.4% | 24 | 2.1% | 7 |
| 26 | HOU | -15.8% | 26 | 3-7 | -13.0% | 23 | 5.1% | 10 | 19.6% | 32 | -1.3% | 23 |
| 27 | TEN | -19.5% | 30 | 3-7 | -15.8% | 25 | -14.8% | 26 | 6.7% | 22 | 2.0% | 9 |
| 28 | TB | -21.6% | 28 | 3-7 | -21.0% | 28 | -21.1% | 31 | -0.7% | 17 | -1.2% | 21 |
| 29 | SF | -25.0% | 31 | 5-5 | -27.2% | 31 | -7.8% | 23 | 15.8% | 28 | -1.5% | 24 |
| 30 | DET | -25.4% | 27 | 2-8 | -25.9% | 30 | -7.0% | 22 | 19.0% | 31 | 0.6% | 15 |
| 31 | OAK | -25.7% | 29 | 2-8 | -23.9% | 29 | -33.0% | 32 | -7.9% | 11 | -0.6% | 19 |
| 32 | ARI | -30.3% | 32 | 2-8 | -29.6% | 32 | -20.7% | 30 | 1.1% | 18 | -8.5% | 32 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | CHI | 34.3% | 9-1 | 47.0% | 7.6 | 3 | -12.5% | 32 | -7.8% | 26 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 2 | SD | 33.9% | 8-2 | 38.1% | 7.9 | 1 | -3.1% | 24 | -12.0% | 31 | 6.3% | 31 |
| 3 | PHI | 28.2% | 5-5 | 22.8% | 7.7 | 2 | -2.2% | 22 | 8.7% | 4 | 9.8% | 23 |
| 4 | JAC | 24.9% | 6-4 | 26.0% | 6.4 | 8 | 5.1% | 7 | -0.2% | 19 | 37.4% | 1 |
| 5 | BAL | 24.5% | 8-2 | 32.3% | 7.1 | 4 | -2.8% | 23 | 0.0% | 18 | 10.2% | 21 |
| 6 | DAL | 24.5% | 6-4 | 25.1% | 6.4 | 7 | 1.9% | 13 | -0.3% | 20 | 14.2% | 14 |
| 7 | NYG | 23.1% | 6-4 | 17.7% | 6.6 | 5 | 5.9% | 5 | 5.9% | 8 | 11.1% | 18 |
| 8 | NE | 18.8% | 7-3 | 26.1% | 6.3 | 9 | -4.8% | 25 | -1.7% | 22 | 16.5% | 9 |
| 9 | IND | 16.8% | 9-1 | 16.1% | 6.6 | 6 | 3.0% | 12 | 2.6% | 14 | 8.4% | 27 |
| 10 | DEN | 7.8% | 7-3 | 6.9% | 5.3 | 12 | 4.3% | 8 | -4.0% | 23 | 15.3% | 11 |
| 11 | KC | 6.7% | 6-4 | 9.9% | 5.7 | 10 | -5.6% | 29 | 9.7% | 1 | 28.5% | 2 |
| 12 | CIN | 6.6% | 5-5 | 1.2% | 5.4 | 11 | 5.8% | 6 | 3.4% | 12 | 6.3% | 30 |
| 13 | CAR | 4.7% | 6-4 | 5.8% | 5.0 | 16 | -1.0% | 19 | 7.2% | 6 | 10.2% | 20 |
| 14 | PIT | 4.7% | 4-6 | 1.0% | 5.1 | 15 | 3.1% | 11 | 5.2% | 10 | 14.9% | 12 |
| 15 | NO | 4.2% | 6-4 | 4.6% | 5.3 | 13 | -0.2% | 16 | 1.7% | 15 | 9.6% | 24 |
| 16 | STL | -3.4% | 4-6 | 5.9% | 5.0 | 17 | -6.9% | 30 | -9.8% | 30 | 10.3% | 19 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 17 | MIN | -5.4% | 4-6 | -1.6% | 5.2 | 14 | -4.9% | 26 | -7.8% | 27 | 8.7% | 25 |
| 18 | WAS | -6.5% | 3-7 | -13.3% | 4.6 | 18 | 8.0% | 3 | 7.7% | 5 | 10.1% | 22 |
| 19 | CLE | -7.5% | 3-7 | -14.6% | 3.8 | 26 | 3.8% | 9 | 0.8% | 17 | 3.9% | 32 |
| 20 | MIA | -9.0% | 4-6 | -2.9% | 4.0 | 24 | -1.4% | 20 | 1.3% | 16 | 8.7% | 26 |
| 21 | GB | -9.9% | 4-6 | -13.1% | 4.2 | 19 | -0.3% | 18 | -8.3% | 29 | 17.5% | 8 |
| 22 | ATL | -10.5% | 5-5 | -0.9% | 4.2 | 20 | -1.7% | 21 | 5.6% | 9 | 26.3% | 4 |
| 23 | NYJ | -12.4% | 5-5 | -12.5% | 4.1 | 22 | 3.7% | 10 | -13.5% | 32 | 14.5% | 13 |
| 24 | BUF | -15.0% | 4-6 | -13.5% | 4.1 | 21 | 1.1% | 14 | 7.1% | 7 | 15.9% | 10 |
| 25 | SEA | -15.7% | 6-4 | -11.7% | 3.8 | 25 | -5.5% | 28 | -7.5% | 25 | 12.1% | 16 |
| 26 | HOU | -15.8% | 3-7 | -22.4% | 4.1 | 23 | 9.2% | 2 | -4.9% | 24 | 12.9% | 15 |
| 27 | TEN | -19.5% | 3-7 | -22.6% | 3.7 | 27 | 10.9% | 1 | 8.8% | 3 | 20.5% | 7 |
| 28 | TB | -21.6% | 3-7 | -30.2% | 3.2 | 30 | 6.4% | 4 | 5.0% | 11 | 7.9% | 28 |
| 29 | SF | -25.0% | 5-5 | -24.7% | 3.6 | 28 | -0.3% | 17 | -7.9% | 28 | 24.6% | 5 |
| 30 | DET | -25.4% | 2-8 | -17.1% | 2.8 | 32 | -9.3% | 31 | 8.9% | 2 | 6.7% | 29 |
| 31 | OAK | -25.7% | 2-8 | -32.7% | 2.9 | 31 | 0.7% | 15 | 2.6% | 13 | 11.9% | 17 |
| 32 | ARI | -30.3% | 2-8 | -24.0% | 3.5 | 29 | -5.0% | 27 | -1.3% | 21 | 23.5% | 6 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6196414
[2] http://www.mharrisdev.com/playoff_odds/
[3] http://www.cafepress.com/outsidershop
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#estimated_wins
[6] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#variance