by Aaron Schatz
Here are this week's DVOA ratings. The commentary is now posted at FOXSports.com [1].
The commentary for Indianapolis this week talks about Pythagorean wins. Some people have asked me why I don't include this in the tables during the year, even though I include it in the tables after the season is over. The reason is that I have to cut and paste the points scored and allowed from elsewhere, which takes extra time. Anyway, since I mention Pythagorean wins, I figured I would run the top 12 for the curious folks. These are all the teams with at least 6.0 projected wins.
1) Bears, 9.5
2) Patriots, 8.7
3) Ravens, 8.5
4) Chargers, 8.4
5) Cowboys, 8.2
6) Jaguars, 7.7
7) Colts, 7.3
8) Bengals, 6.6
9) Broncos, 6.6
10) Saints, 6.4
11) Eagles, 6.2
12) Chiefs, 6.2
Yes, the Colts are seventh, and still might end up as the "luckiest" team since the AFL-NFL merger. After the Colts, the top teams outperforming the projection are Seattle and San Francisco, by 1.7 wins apiece.
Mike Harris did his Playoff Odds Report again. You'll find it here [2], and once again there are two versions: one regular, one with Philadelphia at 0% because of the Donovan McNabb injury.
Speaking of the Eagles, I've received a number of e-mails about that strange Correl Buckhalter touchdown from a couple of weeks ago. Yes, the NFL changed this from a Reggie Brown fumble and Buckhalter recovery to a Buckhalter catch and a passing touchdown for McNabb. From my contact at the NFL:
"The play was originally scored as a catch by Brown, a fumble caused by Springs, with Buckhalter recovering it for a touchdown. After reviewing the play we determined that Brown never established possession, so it was a catch for Buckhalter and a receiving touchdown. Senior officials said that if Buckhalter had not caught the ball in the air, it probably would have been ruled an incomplete pass."
As for how I am treating this in DVOA, I haven't changed anything yet because frankly I don't feel like doing anything at this point that makes Philadelphia's rating go up. At some point I probably will go in and turn it into a Buckhalter catch, like the official stats say.
The other play people are asking about is the New England double fumble on Sunday. I'm counting that as a catch and fumble by Ben Watson and just ignoring the Reche Caldwell recovery and second fumble. Sometimes it makes sense to simplify things like this for the sake of my own sanity.
Don't forget to check out the Football Outsiders swag shoppe [3] -- now featuring ROBO-PUNTER shirts! They have our logo on the front, ROBO-PUNTER on the back with uniform number 1.
All of the team and individual JUST THE STATS pages are now updated through Week 12.
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 12 of 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [4].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
WEIGHTED DVOA is based on a formula which discounts games more than eight weeks ago in order to get a more accurate picture of how teams are playing now. This is the formula used for the rankings at FOXSports.com.
Remember that you can always use the keyword "DVOA" to access the latest DVOA commentary at FOXSports.com.
To save people some time, please use the zlionsfan template for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | CHI | 32.1% | 1 | 9-2 | 30.6% | 2 | -3.5% | 18 | -27.8% | 1 | 7.8% | 1 |
| 2 | SD | 31.7% | 2 | 9-2 | 30.0% | 3 | 26.3% | 2 | -0.5% | 16 | 4.9% | 5 |
| 3 | BAL | 31.0% | 5 | 9-2 | 30.7% | 1 | -0.4% | 15 | -25.6% | 2 | 5.8% | 3 |
| 4 | DAL | 28.6% | 6 | 7-4 | 28.5% | 4 | 15.1% | 4 | -14.3% | 4 | -0.7% | 19 |
| 5 | IND | 23.9% | 9 | 10-1 | 24.5% | 5 | 33.2% | 1 | 7.7% | 26 | -1.6% | 25 |
| 6 | NE | 22.2% | 8 | 8-3 | 23.8% | 6 | 10.0% | 8 | -9.8% | 7 | 2.4% | 9 |
| 7 | JAC | 21.1% | 4 | 6-5 | 21.8% | 7 | -2.4% | 17 | -23.3% | 3 | 0.2% | 15 |
| 8 | PHI | 19.9% | 3 | 5-6 | 16.5% | 9 | 13.2% | 5 | -9.6% | 8 | -2.9% | 29 |
| 9 | NYG | 17.8% | 7 | 6-5 | 17.7% | 8 | 12.3% | 7 | -5.6% | 12 | -0.1% | 16 |
| 10 | CIN | 11.7% | 12 | 6-5 | 11.5% | 10 | 17.6% | 3 | 7.7% | 25 | 1.8% | 11 |
| 11 | KC | 10.7% | 11 | 7-4 | 9.0% | 11 | 4.4% | 10 | -4.0% | 13 | 2.3% | 10 |
| 12 | NO | 6.9% | 15 | 7-4 | 6.6% | 12 | 12.8% | 6 | 7.2% | 24 | 1.4% | 12 |
| 13 | CAR | 3.9% | 13 | 6-5 | 5.5% | 13 | -3.8% | 19 | -10.3% | 6 | -2.6% | 27 |
| 14 | DEN | 3.5% | 10 | 7-4 | 3.9% | 14 | 0.9% | 13 | -2.9% | 14 | -0.2% | 17 |
| 15 | PIT | -1.5% | 14 | 4-7 | -2.1% | 16 | -0.9% | 16 | -6.2% | 11 | -6.7% | 32 |
| 16 | MIA | -3.4% | 20 | 5-6 | -1.6% | 15 | -13.6% | 28 | -11.6% | 5 | -1.5% | 24 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | MIN | -4.8% | 17 | 5-6 | -4.5% | 17 | -10.8% | 26 | -7.1% | 10 | -1.1% | 21 |
| 18 | STL | -5.9% | 16 | 5-6 | -7.7% | 19 | 3.4% | 12 | 8.8% | 27 | -0.5% | 18 |
| 19 | WAS | -6.0% | 18 | 4-7 | -9.5% | 21 | 5.2% | 9 | 11.5% | 28 | 0.2% | 14 |
| 20 | NYJ | -8.9% | 23 | 6-5 | -10.1% | 22 | 0.7% | 14 | 13.6% | 29 | 4.0% | 6 |
| 21 | GB | -10.2% | 21 | 4-7 | -8.8% | 20 | -4.8% | 20 | 2.0% | 17 | -3.5% | 30 |
| 22 | BUF | -10.6% | 24 | 5-6 | -13.1% | 24 | -9.7% | 24 | 7.0% | 23 | 6.1% | 2 |
| 23 | TEN | -13.1% | 27 | 4-7 | -7.4% | 18 | -10.4% | 25 | 5.2% | 19 | 2.4% | 8 |
| 24 | SEA | -14.6% | 25 | 7-4 | -14.9% | 25 | -12.3% | 27 | 5.6% | 20 | 3.3% | 7 |
| 25 | HOU | -14.7% | 26 | 3-8 | -11.5% | 23 | 4.4% | 11 | 17.9% | 31 | -1.2% | 22 |
| 26 | CLE | -14.8% | 19 | 3-8 | -15.4% | 26 | -22.5% | 31 | -2.3% | 15 | 5.4% | 4 |
| 27 | ATL | -15.6% | 22 | 5-6 | -18.2% | 27 | -8.1% | 22 | 4.6% | 18 | -2.9% | 28 |
| 28 | SF | -22.4% | 29 | 5-6 | -20.7% | 28 | -6.4% | 21 | 14.6% | 30 | -1.4% | 23 |
| 29 | TB | -25.1% | 28 | 3-8 | -24.8% | 30 | -18.5% | 30 | 5.7% | 21 | -0.8% | 20 |
| 30 | OAK | -25.4% | 31 | 2-9 | -23.3% | 29 | -31.7% | 32 | -8.1% | 9 | -1.7% | 26 |
| 31 | DET | -28.8% | 30 | 2-9 | -29.7% | 32 | -9.1% | 23 | 20.3% | 32 | 0.6% | 13 |
| 32 | ARI | -30.5% | 32 | 2-9 | -27.8% | 31 | -18.1% | 29 | 5.9% | 22 | -6.5% | 31 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | CHI | 32.1% | 9-2 | 42.1% | 8.2 | 2 | -8.6% | 31 | -15.0% | 32 | 25.8% | 3 |
| 2 | SD | 31.7% | 9-2 | 37.2% | 8.5 | 1 | -4.7% | 25 | -8.3% | 28 | 6.6% | 32 |
| 3 | BAL | 31.0% | 9-2 | 37.4% | 8.2 | 3 | -3.4% | 23 | -0.9% | 18 | 16.1% | 12 |
| 4 | DAL | 28.6% | 7-4 | 30.0% | 7.4 | 6 | -0.8% | 17 | 0.0% | 17 | 16.2% | 11 |
| 5 | IND | 23.9% | 10-1 | 23.1% | 7.8 | 5 | 5.4% | 5 | 0.3% | 15 | 13.2% | 18 |
| 6 | NE | 22.2% | 8-3 | 24.1% | 7.2 | 7 | 1.3% | 15 | -7.8% | 27 | 15.4% | 15 |
| 7 | JAC | 21.1% | 6-5 | 22.7% | 6.7 | 8 | 3.8% | 10 | 8.0% | 6 | 33.5% | 1 |
| 8 | PHI | 19.9% | 5-6 | 12.7% | 7.8 | 4 | 0.6% | 16 | 5.7% | 9 | 15.9% | 13 |
| 9 | NYG | 17.8% | 6-5 | 15.6% | 6.7 | 9 | 3.3% | 11 | 10.7% | 2 | 13.8% | 17 |
| 10 | CIN | 11.7% | 6-5 | 8.4% | 6.2 | 11 | 3.1% | 13 | 6.3% | 8 | 10.3% | 22 |
| 11 | KC | 10.7% | 7-4 | 12.3% | 6.5 | 10 | -4.8% | 26 | 8.7% | 4 | 28.1% | 2 |
| 12 | NO | 6.9% | 7-4 | 9.1% | 6.1 | 12 | -3.8% | 24 | 4.4% | 12 | 9.5% | 23 |
| 13 | CAR | 3.9% | 6-5 | 4.8% | 5.5 | 15 | -1.7% | 19 | 5.5% | 10 | 9.5% | 24 |
| 14 | DEN | 3.5% | 7-4 | 3.2% | 5.5 | 14 | 5.2% | 7 | -4.8% | 24 | 16.2% | 10 |
| 15 | PIT | -1.5% | 4-7 | -6.5% | 5.2 | 17 | 5.2% | 6 | 1.3% | 14 | 19.2% | 8 |
| 16 | MIA | -3.4% | 5-6 | 3.0% | 4.9 | 19 | -2.5% | 22 | 9.5% | 3 | 9.4% | 25 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 17 | MIN | -4.8% | 5-6 | 0.0% | 5.9 | 13 | -6.2% | 28 | -4.4% | 23 | 6.7% | 31 |
| 18 | STL | -5.9% | 5-6 | 4.8% | 5.2 | 16 | -8.5% | 30 | -6.9% | 26 | 8.4% | 28 |
| 19 | WAS | -6.0% | 4-7 | -12.5% | 5.1 | 18 | 7.8% | 4 | 4.6% | 11 | 9.2% | 26 |
| 20 | NYJ | -8.9% | 6-5 | -9.8% | 4.9 | 21 | 3.3% | 12 | -10.9% | 31 | 15.1% | 16 |
| 21 | GB | -10.2% | 4-7 | -12.4% | 4.5 | 23 | -1.6% | 18 | -6.6% | 25 | 16.3% | 9 |
| 22 | BUF | -10.6% | 5-6 | -11.2% | 4.9 | 20 | 4.6% | 8 | 7.4% | 7 | 15.7% | 14 |
| 23 | TEN | -13.1% | 4-7 | -19.7% | 4.7 | 22 | 12.8% | 1 | 8.4% | 5 | 21.9% | 7 |
| 24 | SEA | -14.6% | 7-4 | -10.3% | 4.2 | 26 | -6.7% | 29 | -8.5% | 29 | 10.3% | 21 |
| 25 | HOU | -14.7% | 3-8 | -21.5% | 4.4 | 24 | 8.2% | 3 | -1.4% | 20 | 10.4% | 19 |
| 26 | CLE | -14.8% | 3-8 | -21.9% | 3.6 | 28 | 4.5% | 9 | 0.1% | 16 | 8.5% | 27 |
| 27 | ATL | -15.6% | 5-6 | -4.8% | 4.3 | 25 | -2.0% | 21 | 4.2% | 13 | 24.9% | 4 |
| 28 | SF | -22.4% | 5-6 | -21.2% | 4.2 | 27 | -2.0% | 20 | -9.0% | 30 | 22.0% | 6 |
| 29 | TB | -25.1% | 3-8 | -34.4% | 3.4 | 29 | 8.6% | 2 | -2.9% | 22 | 7.4% | 29 |
| 30 | OAK | -25.4% | 2-9 | -32.4% | 3.1 | 31 | 2.6% | 14 | -1.4% | 19 | 10.3% | 20 |
| 31 | DET | -28.8% | 2-9 | -20.4% | 2.8 | 32 | -8.6% | 32 | 13.6% | 1 | 7.3% | 30 |
| 32 | ARI | -30.5% | 2-9 | -23.2% | 3.3 | 30 | -5.1% | 27 | -1.5% | 21 | 22.0% | 5 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6217244
[2] http://www.mharrisdev.com/playoff_odds/
[3] http://www.cafepress.com/outsidershop
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#estimated_wins
[6] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#variance