Week 14 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Here are the latest DVOA ratings. Commentary now available on FOXSports.com [1]. Since the commentary was written before and just after the Carolina-Philadelphia game, those rankings don't include that game. These ratings, however, do.

I want to write about my trip to MNF and NFL Films and I'm sure that Mike Tanier and I will do so but right now there's no time -- just enough time to jump online and give you guys the latest ratings.

(All individual pages now updated. So is the Mike Harris Playoff Odds Report [2]. Scroll down for a new addition, tentative odds on reaching and winning the Super Bowl.)

Don't forget to check out the Football Outsiders swag shoppe [3] -- now featuring ROBO-PUNTER shirts! They have our logo on the front, ROBO-PUNTER on the back with uniform number 1.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 13 of 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [4].)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.

WEIGHTED DVOA is based on a formula which discounts games more than eight weeks ago in order to get a more accurate picture of how teams are playing now. This is the formula used for the rankings at FOXSports.com.

Remember that you can always use the keyword "DVOA" to access the latest DVOA commentary at FOXSports.com.

To save people some time, please use the zlionsfan template for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	SPECIAL DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	CHI	32.9%	1	28.7%	2	10-2	-6.2%	21	-30.3%	1	8.8%	1
2	SD	29.2%	2	27.0%	4	10-2	23.7%	2	-2.0%	14	3.5%	6
3	BAL	28.0%	3	27.9%	3	9-3	0.5%	14	-23.5%	2	4.0%	4
4	DAL	26.1%	4	29.1%	1	8-4	15.1%	5	-11.4%	4	-0.3%	18
5	JAC	23.5%	7	21.2%	7	7-5	1.7%	12	-21.3%	3	0.6%	14
6	IND	22.7%	5	25.3%	6	10-2	32.2%	1	8.1%	26	-1.3%	22
7	NE	22.3%	6	25.4%	5	9-3	8.7%	8	-10.6%	7	2.9%	8
8	NYG	19.5%	9	17.5%	8	6-6	15.1%	4	-4.7%	12	-0.4%	19
9	PHI	19.4%	8	13.1%	10	6-6	14.1%	6	-7.8%	10	-2.5%	26
10	CIN	14.7%	10	13.3%	9	7-5	19.5%	3	7.0%	25	2.3%	10
11	NO	9.6%	12	10.0%	11	8-4	12.5%	7	5.1%	24	2.1%	11
12	KC	7.9%	11	8.9%	12	7-5	7.9%	9	2.1%	16	2.1%	12
13	CAR	4.5%	13	8.4%	13	6-6	-2.3%	17	-8.2%	9	-1.4%	24
14	PIT	2.3%	15	1.6%	14	5-7	-2.1%	16	-10.6%	8	-6.3%	32
15	DEN	-0.6%	14	0.0%	15	7-5	-3.5%	18	-2.9%	13	-0.1%	17
16	MIN	-4.5%	17	-4.4%	17	5-7	-13.0%	28	-11.3%	5	-2.9%	27
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	SPECIAL DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	NYJ	-4.8%	20	-4.0%	16	7-5	3.7%	10	12.2%	27	3.7%	5
18	MIA	-6.8%	16	-5.2%	19	5-7	-11.7%	26	-6.8%	11	-1.9%	25
19	WAS	-9.5%	19	-13.2%	25	4-8	3.0%	11	12.7%	28	0.1%	15
20	BUF	-10.0%	22	-11.9%	23	5-7	-11.1%	25	5.0%	23	6.2%	2
21	ATL	-10.3%	27	-15.5%	26	6-6	-4.4%	19	2.8%	18	-3.1%	28
22	CLE	-11.1%	26	-10.4%	20	4-8	-15.8%	30	0.4%	15	5.0%	3
23	SEA	-11.3%	24	-11.2%	21	8-4	-12.2%	27	2.2%	17	3.1%	7
24	STL	-11.3%	18	-17.2%	27	5-7	1.4%	13	12.8%	29	0.1%	16
25	TEN	-12.5%	23	-4.8%	18	5-7	-10.4%	24	4.6%	21	2.5%	9
26	GB	-14.1%	21	-11.3%	22	4-8	-5.4%	20	4.9%	22	-3.8%	30
27	HOU	-16.8%	25	-12.9%	24	4-8	-0.4%	15	15.9%	31	-0.5%	20
28	OAK	-24.4%	30	-20.8%	28	2-10	-32.0%	32	-11.2%	6	-3.6%	29
29	ARI	-24.8%	32	-21.7%	29	3-9	-14.7%	29	4.1%	19	-6.1%	31
30	SF	-25.1%	28	-25.4%	30	5-7	-8.3%	22	15.4%	30	-1.4%	23
31	TB	-26.9%	29	-26.9%	31	3-9	-21.9%	31	4.1%	20	-0.9%	21
32	DET	-27.4%	31	-27.1%	32	2-10	-9.5%	23	18.7%	32	0.9%	13

NON-ADJ VOA shows what the rating looks like without adjustments for strength of schedule, luck recovering fumbles, or weather and altitude on special teams.
ESTIMATED WINS [5] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
VARIANCE [6] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	CHI	32.9%	10-2	40.5%	9.2	1	-7.6%	31	-19.9%	32	23.6%	4
2	SD	29.2%	10-2	36.0%	9.1	2	-5.5%	26	-7.2%	27	7.0%	29
3	BAL	28.0%	9-3	31.7%	8.5	3	-0.9%	19	-2.7%	23	17.6%	10
4	DAL	26.1%	8-4	26.5%	7.9	7	0.7%	14	-2.2%	22	15.0%	12
5	JAC	23.5%	7-5	25.5%	7.5	8	2.5%	12	10.1%	4	34.0%	1
6	IND	22.7%	10-2	22.6%	8.4	5	3.7%	9	3.7%	14	12.2%	17
7	NE	22.3%	9-3	26.8%	8.0	6	-1.1%	21	-3.2%	24	13.7%	16
8	NYG	19.5%	6-6	14.7%	7.5	9	5.3%	8	6.0%	9	12.2%	18
9	PHI	19.4%	6-6	13.2%	8.5	4	0.1%	16	6.4%	8	14.3%	14
10	CIN	14.7%	7-5	9.7%	7.1	10	6.0%	4	0.0%	18	11.7%	20
11	NO	9.6%	8-4	13.3%	6.9	11	-4.7%	25	10.1%	2	10.4%	22
12	KC	7.9%	7-5	10.5%	6.8	12	-5.8%	28	14.1%	1	24.6%	3
13	CAR	4.5%	6-6	3.6%	6.0	14	-0.2%	18	5.2%	12	7.9%	28
14	PIT	2.3%	5-7	-1.5%	5.9	15	2.7%	11	9.0%	6	18.5%	8
15	DEN	-0.6%	7-5	0.2%	5.6	17	3.1%	10	-1.5%	20	17.6%	11
16	MIN	-4.5%	5-7	-1.9%	6.3	13	-3.0%	24	-14.4%	31	6.8%	30
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	NYJ	-4.8%	7-5	-4.0%	5.7	16	2.1%	13	-11.4%	28	14.3%	13
18	MIA	-6.8%	5-7	-1.8%	5.2	22	-0.1%	17	7.5%	7	9.6%	25
19	WAS	-9.5%	4-8	-15.1%	5.3	19	5.9%	6	9.3%	5	9.6%	24
20	BUF	-10.0%	5-7	-13.0%	5.2	21	6.5%	3	0.9%	16	14.2%	15
21	ATL	-10.3%	6-6	-1.8%	5.3	18	-1.0%	20	5.8%	10	24.9%	2
22	CLE	-11.1%	4-8	-18.9%	4.4	27	5.9%	5	-3.4%	25	8.3%	27
23	SEA	-11.3%	8-4	-6.2%	5.0	24	-6.9%	30	-11.9%	29	11.1%	21
24	STL	-11.3%	5-7	1.2%	5.3	20	-10.2%	32	-1.4%	19	9.3%	26
25	TEN	-12.5%	5-7	-18.9%	5.1	23	12.8%	1	4.7%	13	19.7%	7
26	GB	-14.1%	4-8	-17.0%	4.6	26	-1.4%	23	-6.0%	26	17.6%	9
27	HOU	-16.8%	4-8	-20.0%	4.7	25	5.6%	7	5.3%	11	12.1%	19
28	OAK	-24.4%	2-10	-29.9%	3.5	31	0.5%	15	1.6%	15	9.8%	23
29	ARI	-24.8%	3-9	-17.4%	4.1	29	-6.1%	29	-2.0%	21	21.7%	5
30	SF	-25.1%	5-7	-23.9%	4.2	28	-1.3%	22	-12.7%	30	21.3%	6
31	TB	-26.9%	3-9	-36.8%	3.5	30	8.6%	2	0.0%	17	6.7%	31
32	DET	-27.4%	2-10	-22.8%	3.3	32	-5.7%	27	10.1%	3	6.6%	32