by Aaron Schatz
Here are the latest DVOA ratings, with the commentary now available on FOXSports.com [1]. This week's commentary talks a lot about special teams, since the Bears are on pace to finish with the second-highest special teams DVOA ever. You can check out a blog post about the top 10 special teams of the decade [2]. Also in this week's commentary: the first appearance of the year for the DVOA week-to-week graphs.
(Wednesday Morning: Looks like FOX doesn't want to use these graphs, so I'll stick them up here. The point is to show the difference between a low variance, San Diego, and the absurd Jacksonville variance. Unfortunately, they don't fit side-by-side on FO and I don't have the time to re-do them.)
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A few people asked in the Quick Reads thread for the DPAR ratings for Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison last night. Well, prepare to be amazed.
Peyton Manning was worth 20.1 DPAR last night. That's the best game by any quarterback this year. (He was listed with 22.0 against Houston in Week 2's Quick Reads, but that was before opponent adjustments, and that game is lower now.) It is the seventh-best passing game by any quarterback in the last decade. I don't know where it stands in total value because I haven't done a sheet which adds up passing DPAR and rushing DPAR for 10 years of single games.
I'll try to do a blog post about the best quarterback games, or I'll do it in next week's Quick Reads. The best passing game of the decade is Randall Cunningham in Week 5 of 1998 against Green Bay: 20-for-32, 442 yards, four touchowns, 23.3 DPAR.
Harrison had 7.4 DPAR which would have ranked him first among wide receivers this week, but isn't one of the best games of the year. By the way, right now the top two wide receivers in DPAR are Colts and the next two are Bengals.
Pages are up now for offense, defense, and special teams. Individual stats are updated, adjusted line yards stats will be updated later tonight. You can also check out the Mike Harris Playoff Odds Report [3].
Don't forget to check out the Football Outsiders swag shoppe [4] -- featuring ROBO-PUNTER shirts! They have our logo on the front, ROBO-PUNTER on the back with uniform number 1. Buy $50 worth of CafePress items before December 20, and get free shipping.
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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 15 of 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [5].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
WEIGHTED DVOA is based on a formula which discounts games more than eight weeks ago in order to get a more accurate picture of how teams are playing now. This is the formula used for the rankings at FOXSports.com.
Remember that you can always use the keyword "DVOA" to access the latest DVOA commentary at FOXSports.com.
To save people some time, please use the zlionsfan template for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
WEI. DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | SD | 33.9% | 2 | 12-2 | 31.9% | 1 | 25.2% | 2 | -4.9% | 11 | 3.8% | 5 |
| 2 | CHI | 32.0% | 1 | 12-2 | 29.7% | 2 | 0.1% | 16 | -23.7% | 2 | 8.2% | 1 |
| 3 | BAL | 28.0% | 3 | 11-3 | 28.3% | 3 | 1.0% | 15 | -23.9% | 1 | 3.2% | 7 |
| 4 | JAC | 25.6% | 4 | 8-6 | 26.1% | 5 | 2.2% | 14 | -22.5% | 3 | 1.0% | 14 |
| 5 | NE | 22.3% | 9 | 10-4 | 27.4% | 4 | 6.3% | 8 | -11.4% | 5 | 4.6% | 3 |
| 6 | PHI | 21.9% | 5 | 8-6 | 16.4% | 8 | 16.8% | 3 | -7.9% | 10 | -2.8% | 23 |
| 7 | IND | 20.7% | 10 | 11-3 | 22.6% | 6 | 32.9% | 1 | 8.1% | 26 | -4.1% | 29 |
| 8 | DAL | 15.8% | 6 | 9-5 | 16.8% | 7 | 14.6% | 6 | -2.0% | 14 | -0.8% | 19 |
| 9 | NYG | 14.5% | 7 | 7-7 | 11.0% | 9 | 10.8% | 7 | -3.0% | 12 | 0.6% | 15 |
| 10 | NO | 11.0% | 11 | 9-5 | 10.3% | 10 | 14.9% | 5 | 4.5% | 20 | 0.6% | 16 |
| 11 | CIN | 11.0% | 8 | 8-6 | 8.9% | 11 | 16.1% | 4 | 6.5% | 25 | 1.4% | 12 |
| 12 | PIT | 9.0% | 13 | 7-7 | 8.2% | 12 | 4.1% | 10 | -9.8% | 8 | -4.9% | 30 |
| 13 | KC | 4.7% | 14 | 7-7 | 7.1% | 13 | 3.8% | 11 | 0.5% | 16 | 1.4% | 11 |
| 14 | CAR | -0.2% | 12 | 6-8 | 2.3% | 14 | -4.6% | 20 | -8.0% | 9 | -3.7% | 26 |
| 15 | BUF | -0.9% | 17 | 7-7 | 0.5% | 17 | -8.6% | 23 | -2.5% | 13 | 5.1% | 2 |
| 16 | MIA | -3.6% | 15 | 6-8 | 1.3% | 15 | -11.7% | 26 | -10.0% | 7 | -1.9% | 21 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
WEI. DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | DEN | -3.8% | 18 | 8-6 | -4.6% | 18 | -2.8% | 18 | 1.2% | 17 | 0.2% | 18 |
| 18 | MIN | -5.3% | 16 | 6-8 | -7.0% | 20 | -11.6% | 25 | -11.4% | 4 | -5.2% | 32 |
| 19 | NYJ | -6.7% | 19 | 8-6 | -8.6% | 21 | 2.2% | 12 | 12.9% | 28 | 3.9% | 4 |
| 20 | WAS | -8.2% | 22 | 5-9 | -10.8% | 23 | 2.2% | 13 | 11.4% | 27 | 1.0% | 13 |
| 21 | ATL | -9.3% | 20 | 7-7 | -10.2% | 22 | -3.3% | 19 | 2.6% | 18 | -3.4% | 24 |
| 22 | GB | -10.0% | 21 | 6-8 | -6.7% | 19 | -6.8% | 21 | -0.6% | 15 | -3.9% | 28 |
| 23 | TEN | -10.8% | 23 | 7-7 | 0.6% | 16 | -10.0% | 24 | 3.5% | 19 | 2.7% | 8 |
| 24 | STL | -13.0% | 26 | 6-8 | -19.8% | 26 | 6.0% | 9 | 15.5% | 31 | -3.6% | 25 |
| 25 | CLE | -15.1% | 25 | 4-10 | -15.2% | 24 | -13.9% | 28 | 4.9% | 21 | 3.7% | 6 |
| 26 | SEA | -17.7% | 24 | 8-6 | -20.7% | 27 | -13.5% | 27 | 5.9% | 24 | 1.7% | 10 |
| 27 | HOU | -22.4% | 27 | 4-10 | -18.9% | 25 | -2.8% | 17 | 16.9% | 32 | -2.8% | 22 |
| 28 | SF | -23.1% | 31 | 6-8 | -24.8% | 29 | -7.3% | 22 | 14.3% | 30 | -1.5% | 20 |
| 29 | TB | -24.6% | 29 | 3-11 | -25.1% | 30 | -19.6% | 31 | 5.5% | 23 | 0.5% | 17 |
| 30 | ARI | -24.7% | 28 | 4-10 | -20.7% | 28 | -14.2% | 29 | 5.3% | 22 | -5.2% | 31 |
| 31 | DET | -26.8% | 32 | 2-12 | -28.4% | 32 | -15.0% | 30 | 14.2% | 29 | 2.4% | 9 |
| 32 | OAK | -28.8% | 30 | 2-12 | -25.8% | 31 | -35.3% | 32 | -10.2% | 6 | -3.7% | 27 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 1 | SD | 33.9% | 12-2 | 38.3% | 11.0 | 1 | -5.1% | 27 | 8.6% | 29 |
| 2 | CHI | 32.0% | 12-2 | 39.8% | 10.5 | 2 | -8.9% | 30 | 23.2% | 2 |
| 3 | BAL | 28.0% | 11-3 | 31.3% | 9.9 | 4 | -1.9% | 21 | 16.9% | 13 |
| 4 | JAC | 25.6% | 8-6 | 23.8% | 8.9 | 7 | 2.1% | 11 | 34.4% | 1 |
| 5 | NE | 22.3% | 10-4 | 25.1% | 9.2 | 6 | -1.9% | 22 | 21.0% | 4 |
| 6 | PHI | 21.9% | 8-6 | 16.8% | 10.1 | 3 | -0.4% | 18 | 12.8% | 20 |
| 7 | IND | 20.7% | 11-3 | 16.9% | 9.5 | 5 | 5.2% | 6 | 18.2% | 10 |
| 8 | DAL | 15.8% | 9-5 | 16.8% | 8.2 | 8 | 0.0% | 16 | 17.5% | 12 |
| 9 | NYG | 14.5% | 7-7 | 10.3% | 8.2 | 9 | 4.3% | 9 | 10.7% | 25 |
| 10 | NO | 11.0% | 9-5 | 12.7% | 8.1 | 10 | -2.8% | 23 | 13.5% | 19 |
| 11 | CIN | 11.0% | 8-6 | 7.4% | 7.9 | 11 | 4.6% | 8 | 11.5% | 22 |
| 12 | PIT | 9.0% | 7-7 | 7.3% | 7.6 | 12 | 1.0% | 14 | 19.1% | 8 |
| 13 | KC | 4.7% | 7-7 | 3.0% | 7.4 | 13 | -1.3% | 19 | 21.5% | 3 |
| 14 | CAR | -0.2% | 6-8 | -3.3% | 6.6 | 16 | 0.8% | 15 | 11.4% | 23 |
| 15 | BUF | -0.9% | 7-7 | -5.2% | 6.9 | 15 | 5.1% | 7 | 16.5% | 15 |
| 16 | MIA | -3.6% | 6-8 | 0.4% | 6.3 | 20 | 2.3% | 10 | 14.4% | 18 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 17 | DEN | -3.8% | 8-6 | -3.0% | 6.3 | 21 | 2.1% | 12 | 18.3% | 9 |
| 18 | MIN | -5.3% | 6-8 | -0.3% | 7.3 | 14 | -4.5% | 26 | 6.3% | 31 |
| 19 | NYJ | -6.7% | 8-6 | -6.2% | 6.5 | 17 | 1.9% | 13 | 14.9% | 17 |
| 20 | WAS | -8.2% | 5-9 | -12.8% | 6.3 | 18 | 5.3% | 5 | 10.0% | 26 |
| 21 | ATL | -9.3% | 7-7 | -1.3% | 6.3 | 19 | -1.7% | 20 | 21.0% | 5 |
| 22 | GB | -10.0% | 6-8 | -10.0% | 5.9 | 23 | -4.4% | 25 | 16.9% | 14 |
| 23 | TEN | -10.8% | 7-7 | -14.3% | 6.2 | 22 | 10.2% | 1 | 17.6% | 11 |
| 24 | STL | -13.0% | 6-8 | -1.6% | 5.8 | 24 | -9.3% | 31 | 12.0% | 21 |
| 25 | CLE | -15.1% | 4-10 | -22.9% | 4.9 | 26 | 6.9% | 3 | 9.1% | 28 |
| 26 | SEA | -17.7% | 8-6 | -10.5% | 4.9 | 27 | -10.4% | 32 | 10.8% | 24 |
| 27 | HOU | -22.4% | 4-10 | -24.3% | 4.7 | 29 | 5.5% | 4 | 15.2% | 16 |
| 28 | SF | -23.1% | 6-8 | -22.2% | 5.1 | 25 | -3.8% | 24 | 19.9% | 6 |
| 29 | TB | -24.6% | 3-11 | -34.7% | 4.2 | 30 | 8.0% | 2 | 6.1% | 32 |
| 30 | ARI | -24.7% | 4-10 | -15.6% | 4.8 | 28 | -8.3% | 29 | 19.5% | 7 |
| 31 | DET | -26.8% | 2-12 | -24.9% | 4.0 | 31 | -5.4% | 28 | 6.4% | 30 |
| 32 | OAK | -28.8% | 2-12 | -33.5% | 3.6 | 32 | -0.2% | 17 | 9.9% | 27 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6288640
[2] http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/footballoutsiders/2006/12/19/The_Best_Special_Teams_of_the_Decade
[3] http://www.mharrisdev.com/playoff_odds/
[4] http://www.cafepress.com/outsidershop
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
[6] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#estimated_wins
[7] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#variance