by Aaron Schatz
Here are the latest DVOA ratings, with commentary now up on FOXSports.com [1]. Prepare to be subjected to more long-winded Houston Texans analysis.
Pages are up now for offense, defense, and special teams. Individual stats also updated. Adjusted line yards stats will be updated later tonight. You can also check out the Mike Harris Playoff Odds Report [2]. Mike has updated it with fixed tiebreaker rules, and you can even click a link that tells you how many times each tiebreaker comes into play in the 10,000 times it runs the remainder of the season.
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EXCITING NEWS!
Apparently, the Amazon folks decided they better get all the Pro Football Prospectus books out of the warehouse or something, because they've dramatically cut the price on our first two books to $2.99 each. There is a lot of stuff in these books that is evergreen research, and not at all dated just because the 2005 season is history and the 2006 season is close to done. The Patrick-Theismann-Maguire parody in the 2006 book is worth the three bucks alone. If you are new to Football Outsiders and want to know more about what we do, or you just never got around to buying one or both of the books, this is your chance. Please order through our site so that we get a small percentage.
It feels strange to be on remainder, but hey, our loss is your gain, and it isn't really our loss anyway, because maybe we'll get some more royalties or something.
The 2007 book is also on Amazon for pre-order, for anyone who likes to do things really, really, really early.
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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 16 of 2006, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [3].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
WEIGHTED DVOA is based on a formula which discounts games more than eight weeks ago in order to get a more accurate picture of how teams are playing now. This is the formula used for the rankings at FOXSports.com.
Remember that you can always use the keyword "DVOA" to access the latest DVOA commentary at FOXSports.com.
To save people some time, please use the zlionsfan template for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | SD | 33.0% | 1 | 13-2 | 29.8% | 2 | 23.5% | 2 | -5.5% | 11 | 4.0% | 4 |
| 2 | BAL | 31.0% | 3 | 12-3 | 30.5% | 1 | 2.8% | 13 | -24.7% | 1 | 3.5% | 5 |
| 3 | CHI | 29.3% | 2 | 13-2 | 22.9% | 5 | 0.5% | 16 | -20.5% | 2 | 8.3% | 1 |
| 4 | PHI | 24.5% | 6 | 9-6 | 19.6% | 6 | 17.8% | 3 | -8.7% | 8 | -2.0% | 22 |
| 5 | NE | 23.0% | 5 | 11-4 | 25.9% | 3 | 9.8% | 7 | -8.9% | 7 | 4.3% | 3 |
| 6 | JAC | 22.3% | 4 | 8-7 | 25.3% | 4 | 3.2% | 11 | -18.9% | 3 | 0.2% | 17 |
| 7 | IND | 18.4% | 7 | 11-4 | 19.1% | 7 | 33.0% | 1 | 11.3% | 26 | -3.3% | 26 |
| 8 | NO | 14.1% | 10 | 10-5 | 17.7% | 8 | 14.9% | 4 | 1.2% | 18 | 0.4% | 15 |
| 9 | DAL | 12.4% | 8 | 9-6 | 8.3% | 10 | 12.3% | 6 | -1.0% | 15 | -0.9% | 20 |
| 10 | NYG | 11.1% | 9 | 7-8 | 6.4% | 11 | 7.5% | 9 | -3.4% | 13 | 0.3% | 16 |
| 11 | CIN | 10.5% | 11 | 8-7 | 10.2% | 9 | 13.3% | 5 | 4.3% | 22 | 1.5% | 12 |
| 12 | PIT | 6.2% | 12 | 7-8 | 5.9% | 12 | 2.7% | 14 | -8.0% | 10 | -4.5% | 30 |
| 13 | KC | 4.9% | 13 | 8-7 | 1.6% | 15 | 4.3% | 10 | 1.0% | 17 | 1.6% | 11 |
| 14 | CAR | -0.2% | 14 | 7-8 | 1.9% | 14 | -5.6% | 20 | -8.3% | 9 | -2.9% | 24 |
| 15 | BUF | -1.1% | 15 | 7-8 | -1.6% | 17 | -6.9% | 22 | -0.1% | 16 | 5.8% | 2 |
| 16 | DEN | -3.3% | 17 | 9-6 | -3.5% | 18 | -5.2% | 19 | -1.7% | 14 | 0.2% | 18 | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
W-L |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
| 17 | MIA | -4.1% | 16 | 6-9 | 0.6% | 16 | -12.8% | 27 | -10.3% | 5 | -1.6% | 21 |
| 18 | MIN | -5.7% | 18 | 6-9 | -5.2% | 19 | -14.4% | 29 | -13.2% | 4 | -4.5% | 29 |
| 19 | NYJ | -7.4% | 19 | 9-6 | -8.4% | 21 | 1.5% | 15 | 12.1% | 27 | 3.1% | 6 |
| 20 | GB | -7.7% | 22 | 7-8 | -5.8% | 20 | -7.4% | 23 | -4.1% | 12 | -4.4% | 28 |
| 21 | ATL | -9.2% | 21 | 7-8 | -14.7% | 23 | -4.1% | 18 | 1.4% | 19 | -3.7% | 27 |
| 22 | WAS | -10.4% | 20 | 5-10 | -16.1% | 25 | 2.8% | 12 | 14.6% | 29 | 1.4% | 13 |
| 23 | TEN | -11.0% | 23 | 8-7 | 5.3% | 13 | -8.1% | 24 | 4.7% | 23 | 1.8% | 10 |
| 24 | STL | -11.7% | 24 | 7-8 | -19.2% | 28 | 9.0% | 8 | 16.0% | 31 | -4.7% | 31 |
| 25 | SEA | -15.8% | 26 | 8-7 | -16.5% | 26 | -14.2% | 28 | 3.7% | 21 | 2.1% | 9 |
| 26 | CLE | -19.8% | 25 | 4-11 | -23.7% | 31 | -16.6% | 30 | 5.8% | 25 | 2.6% | 8 |
| 27 | TB | -20.6% | 29 | 4-11 | -19.0% | 27 | -18.4% | 31 | 2.8% | 20 | 0.6% | 14 |
| 28 | HOU | -20.8% | 27 | 5-10 | -15.5% | 24 | -0.9% | 17 | 17.1% | 32 | -2.8% | 23 |
| 29 | ARI | -21.7% | 30 | 5-10 | -11.0% | 22 | -12.0% | 26 | 4.8% | 24 | -4.9% | 32 |
| 30 | DET | -22.3% | 31 | 2-13 | -20.9% | 30 | -11.1% | 25 | 14.1% | 28 | 2.9% | 7 |
| 31 | SF | -22.6% | 28 | 6-9 | -19.3% | 29 | -6.9% | 21 | 15.5% | 30 | -0.2% | 19 |
| 32 | OAK | -27.7% | 32 | 2-13 | -24.2% | 32 | -34.4% | 32 | -9.9% | 6 | -3.2% | 25 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 1 | SD | 33.0% | 13-2 | 38.7% | 11.5 | 1 | -5.8% | 28 | 8.2% | 30 |
| 2 | BAL | 31.0% | 12-3 | 33.3% | 11.0 | 3 | -1.7% | 22 | 17.4% | 11 |
| 3 | CHI | 29.3% | 13-2 | 38.4% | 10.7 | 4 | -9.0% | 32 | 22.5% | 2 |
| 4 | PHI | 24.5% | 9-6 | 20.1% | 11.0 | 2 | -0.1% | 18 | 13.8% | 20 |
| 5 | NE | 23.0% | 11-4 | 24.8% | 10.2 | 5 | -0.3% | 19 | 19.9% | 4 |
| 6 | JAC | 22.3% | 8-7 | 20.1% | 9.0 | 7 | 1.8% | 12 | 31.7% | 1 |
| 7 | IND | 18.4% | 11-4 | 15.9% | 9.8 | 6 | 2.7% | 10 | 17.9% | 9 |
| 8 | NO | 14.1% | 10-5 | 15.0% | 9.0 | 8 | -1.6% | 21 | 15.4% | 16 |
| 9 | DAL | 12.4% | 9-6 | 11.7% | 8.5 | 9 | 1.5% | 14 | 17.7% | 10 |
| 10 | NYG | 11.1% | 7-8 | 5.7% | 8.4 | 10 | 4.7% | 5 | 12.9% | 22 |
| 11 | CIN | 10.5% | 8-7 | 7.3% | 8.3 | 11 | 4.1% | 6 | 10.3% | 26 |
| 12 | PIT | 6.2% | 7-8 | 2.8% | 7.8 | 14 | 2.8% | 9 | 18.6% | 8 |
| 13 | KC | 4.9% | 8-7 | 5.5% | 8.1 | 12 | -2.9% | 24 | 20.4% | 3 |
| 14 | CAR | -0.2% | 7-8 | -1.7% | 7.1 | 16 | 0.2% | 17 | 11.6% | 24 |
| 15 | BUF | -1.1% | 7-8 | -4.8% | 7.5 | 15 | 3.9% | 8 | 15.7% | 15 |
| 16 | DEN | -3.3% | 9-6 | -3.2% | 6.7 | 19 | 2.7% | 11 | 17.2% | 12 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 17 | MIA | -4.1% | 6-9 | 0.0% | 6.7 | 20 | 1.6% | 13 | 14.1% | 19 |
| 18 | MIN | -5.7% | 6-9 | -1.8% | 7.8 | 13 | -4.1% | 27 | 6.4% | 32 |
| 19 | NYJ | -7.4% | 9-6 | -6.2% | 6.9 | 17 | 1.2% | 15 | 14.4% | 18 |
| 20 | GB | -7.7% | 7-8 | -8.9% | 6.6 | 21 | -3.3% | 25 | 16.9% | 14 |
| 21 | ATL | -9.2% | 7-8 | -2.4% | 6.8 | 18 | -1.1% | 20 | 19.0% | 7 |
| 22 | WAS | -10.4% | 5-10 | -13.7% | 6.5 | 23 | 4.0% | 7 | 9.9% | 27 |
| 23 | TEN | -11.0% | 8-7 | -13.1% | 6.6 | 22 | 8.6% | 1 | 16.9% | 13 |
| 24 | STL | -11.7% | 7-8 | -0.5% | 6.4 | 24 | -8.3% | 30 | 11.8% | 23 |
| 25 | SEA | -15.8% | 8-7 | -12.1% | 5.5 | 27 | -6.7% | 29 | 10.6% | 25 |
| 26 | CLE | -19.8% | 4-11 | -26.0% | 4.8 | 31 | 5.3% | 4 | 13.5% | 21 |
| 27 | TB | -20.6% | 4-11 | -29.2% | 4.9 | 30 | 6.1% | 2 | 8.8% | 29 |
| 28 | HOU | -20.8% | 5-10 | -22.0% | 5.2 | 28 | 5.3% | 3 | 14.6% | 17 |
| 29 | ARI | -21.7% | 5-10 | -12.3% | 5.5 | 26 | -8.6% | 31 | 19.2% | 6 |
| 30 | DET | -22.3% | 2-13 | -22.6% | 5.0 | 29 | -2.6% | 23 | 8.1% | 31 |
| 31 | SF | -22.6% | 6-9 | -22.3% | 5.5 | 25 | -3.7% | 26 | 19.3% | 5 |
| 32 | OAK | -27.7% | 2-13 | -33.5% | 3.9 | 32 | 0.3% | 16 | 9.3% | 28 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6307744
[2] http://www.mharrisdev.com/playoff_odds/
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#estimated_wins
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#variance