by Aaron Schatz
Baltimore is the number one team in the NFL for 2006, according to the Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) system. Nearly every statistical indicator points to the Ravens as the Super Bowl favorite. They are number one both in total DVOA and in weighted DVOA. They finished the season with the most Pythagorean wins, projected from points scored and allowed. Since Brian Billick took over the playcalling duties in Week 8, the Ravens rank in the top ten in offense, defense, and special teams.
Once again, Week 17 games are not adjusted for teams that sat their starters, although this was a much smaller issue than in years past. Carolina-New Orleans was probably the only game affected by the "sit the starters" problem.
The FOXSports.com commentary is now online [1], featuring reasons for optimism and pessimism for each of the 20 non-playoff teams. A couple of interesting notes from the final ratings that didn't make it into the FOXSports.com commentary:
All stats pages are now updated with (unofficial) 2006 final totals. That includes the team stats, the individual stats, adjusted line yards, and the drive stats. I'm waiting to hear from Mike Harris on the Playoff Odds Report. We hope to have some other cool fun stuff for you later this week. We'll have our usual playoff previews chock full of stats. I'm planning on going through the game charting stats and posting some interesting things about the playoff teams over on the FO FOX blog [2]. And I'll be doing an online chat Wednesday at 1pm Eastern on BaseballProspectus.com [3], taking your questions on the playoffs as well as the off-season needs of the 20 teams that fell short.
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for the 2006 regular season, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [4].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.
WEIGHTED DVOA is based on a formula which discounts games more than eight weeks ago in order to get a more accurate picture of how teams are playing now. This is the formula used for the rankings at FOXSports.com. LAST YEAR represents rank in 2005 [5].
To save people some time, we remind everyone to put their angry troll hatred into the official zlionsfan angry troll hatred Mad Libs form:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
LAST YEAR |
W-L | WEI. DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | BAL | 31.9% | 2 | 19 | 13-3 | 35.8% | 1 | 2.8% | 14 | -25.6% | 1 | 3.5% | 4 |
| 2 | SD | 29.9% | 1 | 6 | 14-2 | 26.0% | 3 | 24.4% | 2 | -1.1% | 14 | 4.4% | 3 |
| 3 | PHI | 24.2% | 4 | 18 | 10-6 | 17.2% | 6 | 19.9% | 3 | -6.2% | 11 | -1.9% | 22 |
| 4 | CHI | 24.0% | 3 | 14 | 13-3 | 12.3% | 7 | -3.9% | 18 | -20.3% | 2 | 7.6% | 1 |
| 5 | NE | 23.3% | 5 | 12 | 12-4 | 27.5% | 2 | 12.2% | 7 | -8.4% | 8 | 2.6% | 8 |
| 6 | JAC | 21.9% | 6 | 10 | 8-8 | 19.2% | 5 | 4.4% | 12 | -17.7% | 3 | -0.2% | 20 |
| 7 | IND | 19.4% | 7 | 1 | 12-4 | 21.6% | 4 | 33.8% | 1 | 11.3% | 27 | -3.1% | 26 |
| 8 | NO | 10.8% | 8 | 30 | 10-6 | 11.6% | 8 | 13.7% | 5 | 3.6% | 19 | 0.7% | 14 |
| 9 | NYG | 10.8% | 10 | 8 | 8-8 | 5.6% | 14 | 8.7% | 9 | -1.7% | 13 | 0.4% | 16 |
| 10 | DAL | 10.2% | 9 | 15 | 9-7 | 8.3% | 10 | 10.3% | 8 | -0.1% | 16 | -0.2% | 19 |
| 11 | CIN | 8.7% | 11 | 9 | 8-8 | 7.7% | 11 | 14.6% | 4 | 7.3% | 25 | 1.4% | 12 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.8% | 12 | 3 | 8-8 | 8.6% | 9 | 5.4% | 11 | -6.6% | 10 | -4.2% | 30 |
| 13 | KC | 4.0% | 13 | 4 | 9-7 | 1.5% | 16 | 5.5% | 10 | 2.7% | 18 | 1.2% | 13 |
| 14 | CAR | 2.8% | 14 | 11 | 8-8 | 7.4% | 12 | -4.2% | 19 | -9.9% | 5 | -2.8% | 24 |
| 15 | GB | -1.4% | 20 | 23 | 8-8 | 6.5% | 13 | -6.3% | 20 | -8.9% | 6 | -3.9% | 29 |
| 16 | BUF | -2.7% | 15 | 28 | 7-9 | 0.4% | 18 | -8.6% | 24 | -0.2% | 15 | 5.8% | 2 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
LAST YEAR |
W-L | WEI. DVOA |
RANK |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
SPECIAL DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | MIA | -3.6% | 17 | 13 | 6-10 | 0.7% | 17 | -11.8% | 28 | -8.9% | 7 | -0.7% | 21 |
| 18 | DEN | -3.7% | 16 | 2 | 9-7 | -9.6% | 21 | -8.1% | 23 | -3.7% | 12 | 0.7% | 15 |
| 19 | NYJ | -4.7% | 19 | 27 | 10-6 | 0.3% | 19 | 2.7% | 15 | 10.7% | 26 | 3.2% | 5 |
| 20 | STL | -5.2% | 24 | 29 | 8-8 | -11.5% | 23 | 12.3% | 6 | 13.1% | 29 | -4.4% | 31 |
| 21 | ATL | -8.2% | 21 | 17 | 7-9 | -11.5% | 24 | -2.5% | 17 | 2.3% | 17 | -3.4% | 27 |
| 22 | MIN | -8.7% | 18 | 21 | 6-10 | -11.1% | 22 | -15.7% | 29 | -10.5% | 4 | -3.5% | 28 |
| 23 | WAS | -11.5% | 22 | 7 | 5-11 | -16.4% | 27 | 4.1% | 13 | 17.4% | 32 | 1.7% | 11 |
| 24 | TEN | -12.7% | 23 | 25 | 8-8 | 2.6% | 15 | -8.9% | 25 | 6.2% | 24 | 2.4% | 9 |
| 25 | SEA | -13.5% | 25 | 5 | 9-7 | -14.7% | 26 | -11.6% | 27 | 4.5% | 20 | 2.6% | 7 |
| 26 | ARI | -18.1% | 29 | 22 | 5-11 | -7.3% | 20 | -7.3% | 21 | 6.0% | 23 | -4.8% | 32 |
| 27 | DET | -19.5% | 30 | 26 | 3-13 | -17.3% | 28 | -8.9% | 26 | 13.4% | 30 | 2.7% | 6 |
| 28 | HOU | -19.9% | 28 | 31 | 6-10 | -13.2% | 25 | -2.3% | 16 | 15.5% | 31 | -2.1% | 23 |
| 29 | SF | -20.3% | 31 | 32 | 7-9 | -17.6% | 29 | -8.0% | 22 | 12.3% | 28 | 0.1% | 18 |
| 30 | CLE | -20.9% | 26 | 24 | 4-12 | -25.6% | 31 | -18.2% | 31 | 5.0% | 21 | 2.3% | 10 |
| 31 | TB | -22.8% | 27 | 16 | 4-12 | -22.3% | 30 | -17.9% | 30 | 5.0% | 22 | 0.1% | 17 |
| 32 | OAK | -30.2% | 32 | 20 | 2-14 | -25.6% | 32 | -35.5% | 32 | -8.3% | 9 | -3.0% | 25 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
2006 SCHED |
RANK |
PYTH WINS |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 1 | BAL | 31.9% | 13-3 | 35.0% | 12.0 | 2 | -2.6% | 25 | 12.7 | 1 | 16.9% | 12 |
| 2 | SD | 29.9% | 14-2 | 36.0% | 12.0 | 1 | -6.6% | 30 | 12.1 | 4 | 8.8% | 29 |
| 3 | PHI | 24.2% | 10-6 | 20.0% | 11.6 | 3 | -0.7% | 18 | 9.8 | 8 | 13.3% | 21 |
| 4 | CHI | 24.0% | 13-3 | 30.3% | 10.8 | 5 | -7.3% | 31 | 12.4 | 2 | 28.5% | 2 |
| 5 | NE | 23.3% | 12-4 | 25.9% | 11.0 | 4 | -0.9% | 19 | 12.2 | 3 | 18.7% | 7 |
| 6 | JAC | 21.9% | 8-8 | 19.2% | 9.6 | 7 | 2.0% | 11 | 10.8 | 5 | 30.1% | 1 |
| 7 | IND | 19.4% | 12-4 | 16.8% | 10.6 | 6 | 1.8% | 12 | 9.6 | 9 | 17.2% | 11 |
| 8 | NO | 10.8% | 10-6 | 12.0% | 9.1 | 8 | -1.1% | 22 | 10.3 | 6 | 16.3% | 16 |
| 9 | NYG | 10.8% | 8-8 | 7.3% | 9.0 | 9 | 3.0% | 8 | 7.8 | 16 | 12.5% | 24 |
| 10 | DAL | 10.2% | 9-7 | 10.1% | 8.6 | 10 | 0.0% | 17 | 9.8 | 7 | 17.9% | 9 |
| 11 | CIN | 8.7% | 8-8 | 5.6% | 8.6 | 11 | 3.9% | 5 | 9.1 | 10 | 9.6% | 27 |
| 12 | PIT | 7.8% | 8-8 | 4.0% | 8.6 | 12 | 2.5% | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 17.3% | 10 |
| 13 | KC | 4.0% | 9-7 | 3.7% | 8.5 | 13 | -1.2% | 24 | 8.5 | 13 | 19.1% | 6 |
| 14 | CAR | 2.8% | 8-8 | 1.0% | 7.9 | 15 | 0.4% | 14 | 6.9 | 21 | 13.7% | 20 |
| 15 | GB | -1.4% | 8-8 | -3.0% | 7.6 | 18 | -1.1% | 23 | 6.2 | 23 | 23.2% | 3 |
| 16 | BUF | -2.7% | 7-9 | -8.3% | 7.8 | 16 | 5.9% | 2 | 7.7 | 17 | 15.8% | 17 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
2006 SCHED |
RANK |
PYTH WINS |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 17 | MIA | -3.6% | 6-10 | -0.6% | 7.2 | 21 | 2.9% | 9 | 7.2 | 19 | 13.1% | 23 |
| 18 | DEN | -3.7% | 9-7 | -3.1% | 7.1 | 22 | 1.3% | 13 | 8.4 | 14 | 16.5% | 15 |
| 19 | NYJ | -4.7% | 10-6 | -1.8% | 7.6 | 17 | -0.9% | 20 | 8.7 | 12 | 15.3% | 18 |
| 20 | STL | -5.2% | 8-8 | 3.7% | 7.4 | 20 | -7.4% | 32 | 7.6 | 18 | 16.6% | 14 |
| 21 | ATL | -8.2% | 7-9 | -3.0% | 7.4 | 19 | 0.3% | 16 | 6.9 | 20 | 18.5% | 8 |
| 22 | MIN | -8.7% | 6-10 | -5.0% | 7.9 | 14 | -3.0% | 27 | 6.6 | 22 | 8.0% | 32 |
| 23 | WAS | -11.5% | 5-11 | -14.8% | 6.8 | 23 | 4.2% | 4 | 6.1 | 24 | 9.5% | 28 |
| 24 | TEN | -12.7% | 8-8 | -16.1% | 6.8 | 24 | 9.4% | 1 | 6.0 | 25 | 16.7% | 13 |
| 25 | SEA | -13.5% | 9-7 | -9.3% | 6.2 | 25 | -6.5% | 29 | 7.8 | 15 | 10.4% | 25 |
| 26 | ARI | -18.1% | 5-11 | -10.7% | 6.2 | 27 | -5.1% | 28 | 6.0 | 26 | 19.5% | 5 |
| 27 | DET | -19.5% | 3-13 | -20.3% | 5.8 | 29 | -0.9% | 21 | 5.6 | 27 | 8.7% | 30 |
| 28 | HOU | -19.9% | 6-10 | -18.8% | 5.9 | 28 | 3.3% | 7 | 5.1 | 28 | 14.0% | 19 |
| 29 | SF | -20.3% | 7-9 | -19.9% | 6.2 | 26 | -2.8% | 26 | 5.1 | 29 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 30 | CLE | -20.9% | 4-12 | -25.9% | 4.8 | 31 | 3.4% | 6 | 4.4 | 30 | 13.2% | 22 |
| 31 | TB | -22.8% | 4-12 | -29.3% | 5.1 | 30 | 4.5% | 3 | 3.6 | 31 | 8.3% | 31 |
| 32 | OAK | -30.2% | 2-14 | -36.1% | 3.9 | 32 | 0.4% | 15 | 2.7 | 32 | 10.0% | 26 |
Links:
[1] http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/6329276
[2] http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/footballoutsiders
[3] http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=250
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2005.php
[6] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#estimated_wins
[7] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#pythagorean
[8] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#pythagorean
[9] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#variance