FO vs. The Deepest Fantasy League Ever

Aaron Schatz: A few weeks ago, Dave Richard from CBS Sportsline approached me about joining the CBS Sportsline.com NFL IDP Experts League. It's a hard core fantasy league featuring individual defenders, jumbo rosters, even special teams. The participants included representatives from some of the fantasy realm's heavy hitters: Pro Football Weekly, Foot. Guys, Rotoworld, Rotowire, and of course CBS Sportsline. I loved the idea, especially because I put together IDP projections this year for the first time. Of course, I have never actually played in an IDP league myself, and the draft was scheduled for the week I was on vacation in Cape Cod.

Mike Tanier: Enter yours truly. I have been involved in an IDP league for 15 years. My summer schedule is flexible. Armed with our KUBIAK rankings and plenty of input from Aaron, I would draft the Football Outsiders team.

The first thing I noticed as I began preparing for the draft was that rosters and lineups for the 12-team league were huge. Each starting lineup requires a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, a flex player, two defensive linemen, three linebackers, three defensive backs, a kicker, and a special teams. The 18-player lineups seem unwieldy, but with a 29-man roster to chose from, owners would have plenty of options. Yep, I was staring down the barrel of a 29-round draft. I sent my wife and kids to the pool and ordered an extra large with cream and sugar from Dunkin Donuts.

The lineups are abnormally large, but at least the league's scoring system is straightforward. Touchdowns of all stripes are worth six points. Rushing and receiving bonuses come every 10 yards, passing bonuses every 25 yards. Receptions are worth a point. The IDP rules weren't particularly exotic: one point per tackle, a half point for an assist, three points each for fumble recoveries, interceptions and sacks, two points for passes defensed. There were some distance bonuses for long field goals and other little bits of arcana, but nothing too strange.

Aaron: This league is completely ridiculous, to be honest. 29 players per team? It seems like the kind of thing that would be fun with your buddies, particularly if you are used to playing in deep baseball leagues. (I play in AL and NL-only "Ultra" leagues, with a dozen teams and up to 40 players including reserves.) However, I've always thought that the point of these experts leagues is to be a public example to help fantasy football players get an idea of who they should be drafting, picking up on waivers, and so forth. I can't imagine anybody out there actually plays in a league that looks anything like this. Who among you owns Channing Crowder or Jerome Harrison on your fantasy team? Nevertheless, we figured Football Outsiders readers would get a kick out of seeing the results and what Mike and I were thinking as we (mostly Mike) drafted. Plus, we're not sure what is going on with the Boston-area auction league that features a number of FO writers and gets written about in Scramble every year. We usually don't auction until a week before the season starts, so the results wouldn't show up in Scramble in time to help anyone.

Mike: As it turned out, the league owners snaked through the first two rounds before draft day (Thursday, July 12th), and Aaron was available by phone for the first few rounds of the draft. So in the early rounds, we had a true collaboration. Aaron and I would agree on a decision, then I would go off half cocked and do something different at the last second. Because that's how I roll.

Aaron: Readers should also take note of our new Open Fantasy Football Discussion Board [2]. It will be listed on one of those green buttons on the front page soon.

Aaron: I know we're the only people out there projecting Frank Gore to be worth more than LaDainian Tomlinson in fantasy football this year, but I don't begrudge any reader who wants to go against that ranking and pick LT number one anyway. I would probably do the same, no matter what the projections say. I also don't know why my projection system hates the Rams every year, which is why we have Steven Jackson lower than other "experts." I'm comfortable with the idea that we're under-projecting him. However, I feel very confident about our unconventional low projections for Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander. It's clear that not many other people share our viewpoint.

Aaron: We were very happy with our first two picks. As you will see, the running backs go absurdly fast in this league, because it is so deep, with so many bench spots and the ability to play three running backs per week with the flex position. Edgerrin James is going to be another player where KUBIAK differs from conventional wisdom. We were right about him last year, so I'm pretty sure we're right about him this year too.

Aaron: Here's our first controversial pick. In a league where passing touchdowns are worth just four points, we have Donovan McNabb ahead of every other quarterback except Peyton Manning. In a league where passing touchdowns are worth six points, he's close with Brady and Palmer. We were stuck deciding between McNabb and Brady. We made the decision based on three elements. Our desire to kill our reputation as Patriots homers pointed to McNabb. Our desire to avoid risk pointed to Brady. Finally, Mike decided he wanted to stay away from having two of our top three players on the same team with the same bye week, which meant taking McNabb.

Mike: In retrospect, I should have taken Brady, like we initially planned to. This league is so insanely deep that having two teammates wouldn't make a huge difference: no matter what, bye weeks will be a scramble. The Patriots offense is going to rock this season, so who cares if we look a little homer-ish and win a bunch of games. But you know what? I often select three running backs in the first three rounds when I pick fantasy teams. Maybe we should have done that here. I'd love to have Cadillac Williams in my flex position.

Aaron: Run KUBIAK for the scoring in this league, and Gates comes out ninth. We still need to install a fix in the KUBIAK rankings that will account for the fact that the top tight end "bench" players are usually on waivers, so the "replacement level" for tight ends is different than for running backs or quarterbacks. It's coming soon. Even with that problem in mind, Gates is still far and away the best tight end, so we had no problem taking him here.

Mike: I like the idea of having a big plus at tight end like Gates. Though again, maybe we should have tagged that third running back.

Aaron: We still didn't have a wide receiver when we hit our fifth-round pick, but we were really starting to get to slim pickins in a league where flex allows you to play three running backs per week. The Taylor pick is a bit of a gamble because we'll need to fiddle with the bench during Jacksonville's bye week. However, more than any other team, Jacksonville has two running backs who should gain enough yards and score enough touchdowns to start every week even in a league without a flex spot, and this gives us insurance if there is an injury to either Taylor or MJD. The defensive players started going earlier than Tanier expected; I had never done an IDP draft before so I had no idea what to expect.

Mike: Taking a linebacker in the fifth round of any IDP league is a serious reach in my opinion. There just isn't enough to separate the top 20 or so defenders from the next 150 or so. The wide receivers were flying off the board so quickly that Aaron and I agreed to go bargain hunting at running back. We both thought that some of our favorite high-risk guys, like Ladell Betts, would last another round or two. Taylor is a good flex-position back.

Aaron: As for the next pick, Deion Branch was simply the best wide receiver left on our list.

Aaron: We were actually going to take a fourth running back here, Ladell Betts. At this point, so many running backs were gone, and Ladell Betts was far, far ahead of any other running back left according to KUBIAK. In part that's not an objective stats thing, that's due to the subjective playing time variable. Portis is nicked up and everyone on the FO staff generally agreed when we put these things together that Betts will still get a lot of playing time this season. Anyway, Norton grabbed him one spot before us, so we decided between Stallworth and Terry Glenn, and Stallworth has more upside.

Mike: I was mad. Betts and Cadillac Williams were both taken just before we could pounce on them. This is the first time I ever picked with such a bunch of experts -- no offense to all of the guys who have beaten me up in leagues past.

Mike: I generally don't take a defensive player in the eighth round. At that point, we had many receivers bunched on our board, guys like Glenn, Muhammad, and Cotchery. With eight defensive spots to fill and marquee guys leaving the board, I figured it was time to dip our feet in. Edwards will do better than a lot of guys taken ahead of him.

Aaron: In doing the IDP projections for the first time, I discovered that weakside linebackers generally get more tackles than strongside linebackers, but the difference is even more extreme in two different defenses: The Tampa-2, and the Gunther Cunningham system. Kansas City is sort of a cross between the two now, I guess, and we think the Chiefs are going to suck, so Edwards is going to have a zillion tackles. Don't be shocked if he leads the league.

Also, let me add a plug: This year's more advanced projections, particularly those for IDP, would not be possible without Sagata Regression Professional software.

Aaron: The plan was to take D.J. Hackett or Vincent Jackson here and we never expected both of them to go this early. I guess we're not the only people who see them as sleepers. The bad part about grabbing the first tight end and three running backs early is that our starting wide receivers kind of suck. Of course, it is easier to find a reasonable wide receiver on the waiver wire than a reasonable running back. The other part of the plan was to take Chester Taylor coming back on the other side of the "snaking." We got too cute and should have taken him first, then a receiver. Oh well.

I'm a little shocked to see Jerry Porter go so high. Notice that Chris Henry of the Titans just went? He's the third-string running back. We're not even on Round 10. This league is DEEP.

Aaron: Brian Dawkins, baby! Bring on those ridiculous Lincoln Field "pass ten feet over receiver's head" B.S. passes defensed, and those Jim Johnson safety blitz sacks. As for our next IDP pick, Tampa-2 weakside linebackers are swell, and we don't get punished for when June misses a tackle. Unfortunately, we did this draft before I did the upgraded linebacker projections, which dropped June a bit.

Mike: It is still a good pick. In IDP leagues, you want guys who come up with eight or nine tackles per game as the basis of your defense, then you fill in around them with guys who have the chance to contribute a bunch of sacks. We have the tackles covered with Edwards and June.

Aaron: Perhaps a risky pick, since we still only have three wide receivers and none of them are good enough to be considered "absolute every week starters," but Turner is a nice gamble for extra touchdowns when the other running backs are on bye weeks, and if anything should happen to LaDainian Tomlinson, look out. Notice that Tennessee's alleged starting running back goes after the guy who ranks third on the depth chart.

Aaron: This one is a mistake, and all my fault. Like June, Davis was higher in the IDP projections before I did the improved linebacker formulas. It isn't like Davis is a bad guy to have in IDP, but we were deciding between Davis and Indianapolis defensive end Robert Mathis here. We should have taken Mathis, not only because his projection is better vis-a-vis his position, but because we now have three linebackers and no defensive linemen.

Mike: I like Davis, good mix of tackles and big-play ability, and your projection didn't downgrade him that much. But at this point, I realized that the defensive line was going to be the weak point of the defense. I wasn't that worried, because sack totals are volatile, and a lot of IDP fantasy players draft 12-sack defensive ends too high only to catch them during their five-sack follow-up year. Remember how I said that I don't usually take defenders in the eighth round? There's one exception: Julius Peppers. If I don't get him, I draft a bunch of decent guys then scan the waiver wire in Week 1 and 2 for better options.

Aaron: Once Silva broached the kicker thing with Kaeding, we wanted to get the guy who KUBIAK has higher than any other kicker by a healthy margin. In retrospect, perhaps we should have waited and gambled on our spectacular Jacksonville projections by taking Josh Scobee super late. However, Gostkowski will be kicking for one of the top offenses in the league, and remember, field-goal percentage is inconsistent from season to season, especially on kicks over 40 yards -- which happens to be where Gostkowski struggled as a rookie. This was the last pick where Tanier had me on the phone beforehand. I headed off to the beach to dig sand holes with Mirinae while Mike finished things up.

Aaron: Here's the one pick that Tanier and I really disagreed on. My case is that backup tight ends are out there as free commodities. I'll let Mike make his case.

Mike: Yes, yes I know that backup tight ends are useless in most leagues and are relatively plentiful. But look at who is getting selected at this point in the draft: backup running backs, defensive players, and so on. This is a league in which you start three receivers AND a flex guy. At this point, I figured Taylor would be our typical flex guy, but if he was hurt or starting at running back, we might be down to a fourth or fifth receiver. Or, a second tight end. Clark gets lots of opportunities in Indy and is a stable commodity. If Gates gets hurt, we're covered. If he has to fill the flex once or twice, we're covered. Anthony Gonzalez got picked a few rounds after Clark, and this isn't a keeper league. Dee Dee Dorsey got picked a few choices earlier. Clark will outscore both of them this season.

Okay, I am trying to convince myself. You see Derrick Mason a few slots down? He would have been a better option as the safe backup who can flex in a pinch. But hey, it's the 16th round.

Mike: Jarrett is our gamble on a breakout guy. Jurevicius is a safe bye week sub. After this, I essentially threw up my hands at wide receiver. We can bargain hunt for extra depth once camp opens and we know who is really starting where.

Aaron: Yes, that says pick 240 and we still have nine rounds to go, and someone just took a rookie fullback. Wow. By the way, the Bears were the only "special teams" to go before round 26.

Aaron: I may have Kalimba Edwards too high in the projections based on his place on the depth chart, but we're in Round 21, so honestly, no big deal. The other starting Lions end, Dewayne White, is still available as a free agent and probably makes a better choice.

Mike: My late defensive line picks, Edwards and Tommy Kelly, weren't my best work. It's not easy picking defensive linemen three weeks before camp opens.

Aaron: IDP people, don't forget Ahmad Brooks is the starting middle linebacker for a defense that everybody in the league wants to run on. Bring on the tackles!

Mike: At this point, I have been drafting for almost four hours. Aaron is long gone. Here in South Jersey, it is 80 degrees and sunny, and I am sitting at my computer drafting Washington Redskins cornerbacks while my wife and children splash merrily in a municipal pool. I briefly contemplate my own mortality, the paucity of beautiful July days, and the preciousness of children's laughter. I have a brief career crisis. Then I have a salami sandwich. I feel slightly better.

Aaron: Yes, that's correct, we have LT's backup, LJ's backup, and the Kool-Aid Man's backup. We're the vultures. I cannot believe this thing is still going.

Mike: You don't believe it is still going? You were buried in sand by this point. Yep, we are ghouls, but we got Turner and Bennett at value prices. Bennett is a fine talent who is one injury away from being the featured back in a run-heavy offense.

Aaron: Didn't Corey Dillon retire? Trent Green has a terrible KUBIAK projection, but he plays Houston the week Donovan McNabb is on bye, and then he will be waived.

Aaron: Dude, I can't believe you got Manning this late! Wait a minute, wrong Manning...

The idea of your starting roster having a "special teams" spot just seems ludicrous to me, since special teams touchdowns are almost entirely random. There's very little correlation from year-to-year, even with the best return men. That being said, I think Antwaan Randle El is the only guy in the league to have punt return touchdowns each of the last three years (if I remember correctly) so I'm happy Mike made this pick for our last pick. I have no idea how anybody could have taken any special teams in any round other than round 29, except perhaps Chicago. Yes, I just typed "Round 29" in a mock draft article.

Mike: Yes, 29 rounds. It started at 1:30 and ended around 6 PM. Really, the last rounds in any draft this long are superfluous. We could have snaked the last few rounds on e-mail, but some of the other guys were going on vacation.

I would rather draft a punter than a special teams. I would love to win a week because Brad Moorman booted four punts inside the 20 or something. I wrote an article for Sports Forecaster once about drafting offensive lines: you get points for sack-free games, points for 200 total rushing yards, that sort of thing. I think a lot of the fantasy services can support something like that.

Aaron: In retrospect, this league would work better if it was more like a baseball "Ultra" league. I don't know about keepers or no keepers, but an auction instead of a straight draft would allow for a lot of flexibility given the number of roster spots. 20 spots could be auctioned, and the final nine bench spots would be a reserve draft to shorten things at the end. With the ability to throw all your money at one position or another, or split it everywhere, there would be tons of strategy options.

How deep is this league? The best remaining quarterbacks are Jason Campbell and whoever starts for Oakland. The best running backs are Mewelde Moore and J.J. Arrington. The best wide receivers are Reggie Williams and Eric Parker, and the best tight end is either Chris Baker or Marcedes Lewis. Holy mackeral. It will be interesting to see how we fare against some very smart football folks who spend a lot more time thinking specifically about fantasy football than either Mike or myself. The website is not open to the public -- at least, not yet, I don't know if that changes when the season begins -- so we'll try to keep everyone updated on our progress.