Randy Edwards: In light of the Patriots videotaping scandal, I would be very interested to see an evaluation of the Patriots first-half DVOA compared to second-half DVOA. I suppose such statistics may be difficult to produce, but they have the potential to be eye-opening.
Not difficult to produce at all. If the Patriots are stealing the other team's defensive signs, their offense should improve after halftime.
New England 2006 offensive DVOA by quarter: 9.9%, 25.2%, 11.8%, 1.6%
New England 2005 offensive DVOA by quarter: 28.5%, -7.7%, 17.9%, 14.3%
New England 2004 offensive DVOA by quarter: 4.5%, 41.2%, 47.9%, -0.2%
Sure doesn't look like it to me. In fact, the 2006 Patriots ranked 28th out of 32 teams in the difference between their offensive DVOA in the first half and their offensive DVOA in the second half or overtime.
Top 5:
| Team | 1H | 2H | Dif |
| MIA | -22.0% | -2.5% | 19.5% |
| DAL | 0.8% | 18.6% | 17.9% |
| HOU | -10.1% | 6.1% | 16.2% |
| ATL | -9.4% | 6.3% | 15.7% |
| SD | 16.7% | 32.0% | 15.3% |
Bottom 5:
| Team | 1H | 2H | Dif |
| OAK | -19.3% | -53.8% | -34.4% |
| CAR | 8.7% | -17.0% | -25.6% |
| SEA | -3.3% | -20.2% | -16.9% |
| CIN | 21.0% | 7.4% | -13.6% |
| NE | 17.7% | 6.1% | -11.6% |
(Note: I realize that the way I worded this may make it sound like I'm saying that DVOA proves the Patriots were not stealing signs. What I mean to say here is that it doesn't look like their offense has been better after halftime over the past three seasons -- unless, of course, you want to argue that whatever benefits you get from stealing signs end after the third quarter. I do not mean to say that they were not stealing signs. Of course they were stealing signs. It just hasn't helped their DVOA ratings on offense. That's it.)