Week 4 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

New England continues to dominate the NFL in the fourth week of Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. Surprised? We didn't think so.

A few things new this week, both on the site and elsewhere. First, we have the "secondary table" for the first time this season, with schedule ratings, variance, and estimated wins. Despite New England's dominance, the Colts actually lead in estimated wins, but the reason is a little weird. The Colts have an awesome record this year in the second half of close games, the best offensive and defensive DVOA in the league. The Patriots have a 0% DVOA in the second half of close games because they have not had any close games.

You also might notice that the Patriots aren't just dominating -- they are dominating consistently. So are the Cowboys. The Pats have the lowest VARIANCE in the NFL, and the Cowboys rank 30th. Man, that is going to be one hell of a good game in two weeks.

There's one other stat updated this week for the first time in 2007: "Defense vs. Types of Receivers" is now available on the team defense [1] page.

All individual stats pages are now updated, as are offensive line [2] and defensive front seven [3]. Each of these other pages will be updated through Week 4 later today or tonight, and we'll let you know when the updates are finished:

DVOA Premium Database [4]: NOW UPDATED
Loser League [5]: NOW UPDATED
Playoff Odds Report [6]: NOW UPDATED

As for Football Outsiders appearing elsewhere, we are proud to announce that we're reached an agreement to provide content to AOL Sports this season. Both Any Given Sunday and DVOA will be appearing on AOL beginning this week. The DVOA ratings on AOL will be in a format closer to what we had on FOX the last two years, although the comments will be a bit shorter. (I know people miss the long comments every week about all 32 teams, but it was really hard to come up with something good for every team every week. I'm a lot more relaxed now.) Football Outsiders will continue to provide three columns per week to FOX, and there's one other deal in the works, but we'll get to that one when it happens.

More commentary in a bit, first let's get to the numbers.

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through four weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [7].) OFFENSE and DEFENSE VOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season.

Opponent adjustments are currently set at 40% and will increase each week until they are full strength after Week 10.

DAVE is an early-season formula that combines early-season performance with our preseason projection to get a more accurate picture of how well teams will play over the course of the entire season. (DAVE stands for "DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early.") In this week's DAVE ratings, the preseason projection counts for 40 percent, and the current VOA counts for 60 percent, except for the four teams that have only played three games. Those teams are still split 55/45.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	DAVE	RANK	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	NE	72.4%	1	56.8%	1	80.2%	4-0	46.7%	1	-20.9%	2	4.7%	9
2	DAL	52.1%	3	27.3%	4	63.7%	4-0	44.7%	3	-8.8%	10	-1.4%	18
3	IND	48.4%	4	31.8%	2	51.5%	4-0	46.1%	2	-8.9%	9	-6.7%	25
4	TB	38.6%	5	27.3%	3	43.6%	3-1	14.8%	6	-19.5%	3	4.3%	10
5	PIT	34.0%	2	24.4%	5	46.2%	3-1	8.9%	9	-22.8%	1	2.3%	14
6	SEA	27.3%	14	16.4%	7	24.3%	3-1	10.0%	8	-11.2%	5	6.0%	7
7	ARI	22.8%	13	6.3%	11	21.0%	2-2	17.0%	5	-5.4%	12	0.4%	16
8	GB	21.9%	7	15.4%	9	21.7%	4-0	12.3%	7	-2.6%	14	7.0%	5
9	BAL	14.1%	8	13.2%	10	14.0%	2-2	-3.7%	23	-10.4%	7	7.5%	4
10	TEN	14.1%	11	2.7%	13	15.3%	2-1	5.0%	13	-11.2%	6	-2.1%	19
11	PHI	11.0%	6	17.0%	6	12.2%	1-3	3.6%	15	-9.6%	8	-2.2%	21
12	MIN	9.0%	10	1.8%	14	7.2%	1-3	-8.1%	25	-11.3%	4	5.8%	8
13	HOU	5.5%	12	-3.6%	17	5.0%	2-2	-2.8%	20	2.3%	17	10.6%	1
14	JAC	4.5%	15	15.6%	8	4.2%	2-1	2.9%	16	1.1%	16	2.7%	12
15	WAS	-1.3%	17	3.0%	12	10.5%	2-1	-5.5%	24	-3.1%	13	1.2%	15
16	NYG	-1.6%	23	-2.4%	15	-10.6%	2-2	7.6%	11	5.4%	20	-3.8%	23
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	DAVE	RANK	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	CIN	-2.6%	16	-3.0%	16	-9.6%	1-3	17.3%	4	7.2%	22	-12.8%	32
18	DET	-4.7%	19	-6.7%	19	-2.6%	3-1	6.6%	12	4.4%	18	-6.9%	26
19	DEN	-9.1%	9	-5.4%	18	-5.1%	2-2	8.1%	10	4.8%	19	-12.4%	31
20	CLE	-10.9%	21	-8.8%	21	-12.9%	2-2	-1.1%	19	19.6%	27	9.7%	2
21	ATL	-16.5%	26	-9.9%	22	-14.3%	1-3	4.0%	14	15.6%	25	-4.9%	24
22	KC	-18.3%	22	-21.2%	28	-5.5%	2-2	-17.3%	28	-7.9%	11	-9.0%	29
23	SD	-19.9%	25	-8.4%	20	-29.7%	1-3	-8.5%	26	14.3%	24	2.9%	11
24	OAK	-20.7%	28	-17.3%	25	-10.3%	2-2	-3.0%	21	7.6%	23	-10.1%	30
25	CAR	-23.8%	18	-10.1%	23	-15.8%	2-2	2.7%	17	18.1%	26	-8.3%	28
26	MIA	-23.8%	20	-20.0%	26	-28.7%	0-4	1.3%	18	22.4%	29	-2.7%	22
27	CHI	-30.1%	27	-16.5%	24	-29.8%	1-3	-41.7%	32	-2.5%	15	9.2%	3
28	BUF	-33.3%	31	-21.9%	29	-39.5%	1-3	-15.0%	27	24.5%	30	6.2%	6
29	NYJ	-39.7%	30	-20.7%	27	-36.5%	1-3	-3.5%	22	34.0%	32	-2.1%	20
30	SF	-40.6%	24	-25.0%	30	-38.5%	2-2	-36.8%	31	6.2%	21	2.5%	13
31	STL	-45.2%	29	-37.1%	32	-46.1%	0-4	-23.5%	30	21.9%	28	0.3%	17
32	NO	-53.8%	32	-26.7%	31	-65.1%	0-3	-21.9%	29	24.9%	31	-7.1%	27

ESTIMATED WINS [8] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. (Note: This is based on 2007 performance only. In other words, DVOA, not DAVE.)
VARIANCE [9] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	NE	72.4%	4-0	3.9	2	-23.9%	31	2.1%	11	0.3%	32
2	DAL	52.1%	4-0	3.4	3	-25.2%	32	1.6%	13	1.0%	30
3	IND	48.4%	4-0	4.0	1	-10.8%	27	4.5%	6	7.8%	22
4	TB	38.6%	3-1	3.1	4	-23.9%	30	-5.2%	26	25.7%	3
5	PIT	34.0%	3-1	2.3	11	-15.5%	29	-0.1%	16	46.5%	1
6	SEA	27.3%	3-1	2.7	6	4.6%	11	-15.3%	32	17.5%	10
7	ARI	22.8%	2-2	2.7	7	8.7%	7	-14.9%	31	22.1%	6
8	GB	21.9%	4-0	2.9	5	-0.4%	16	-10.6%	30	2.0%	27
9	BAL	14.1%	2-2	2.4	9	-7.6%	24	3.3%	9	6.3%	23
10	TEN	14.1%	2-1	2.4	8	-0.2%	14	-4.0%	25	1.6%	28
11	PHI	11.0%	1-3	2.3	10	3.6%	12	2.4%	10	31.6%	2
12	MIN	9.0%	1-3	2.2	13	-4.4%	23	-6.1%	27	9.2%	19
13	HOU	5.5%	2-2	1.8	20	-2.6%	19	-1.2%	19	14.7%	13
14	JAC	4.5%	2-1	2.3	12	-2.9%	20	2.0%	12	0.7%	31
15	WAS	-1.3%	2-1	2.0	17	-3.6%	21	14.2%	1	1.5%	29
16	NYG	-1.6%	2-2	1.9	18	20.9%	3	-3.8%	23	17.4%	11
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	CIN	-2.6%	1-3	2.1	15	25.7%	1	-7.7%	29	2.7%	26
18	DET	-4.7%	3-1	2.2	14	-7.7%	25	7.2%	4	25.1%	4
19	DEN	-9.1%	2-2	1.6	21	-0.3%	15	-4.0%	24	16.5%	12
20	CLE	-10.9%	2-2	2.0	16	6.2%	10	-0.8%	17	19.4%	8
21	ATL	-16.5%	1-3	1.4	23	-1.2%	17	-2.4%	20	8.1%	21
22	KC	-18.3%	2-2	1.9	19	-8.8%	26	-3.2%	21	12.8%	16
23	SD	-19.9%	1-3	1.4	24	11.5%	5	1.1%	14	12.9%	15
24	OAK	-20.7%	2-2	1.2	26	-12.1%	28	-1.0%	18	19.5%	7
25	CAR	-23.8%	2-2	1.6	22	-4.4%	22	5.4%	5	9.5%	18
26	MIA	-23.8%	0-4	1.1	27	-2.4%	18	7.3%	3	3.8%	25
27	CHI	-30.1%	1-3	0.8	28	2.3%	13	0.7%	15	18.9%	9
28	BUF	-33.3%	1-3	1.4	25	14.4%	4	4.2%	7	6.2%	24
29	NYJ	-39.7%	1-3	0.7	30	7.3%	8	7.6%	2	10.7%	17
30	SF	-40.6%	2-2	0.8	29	9.7%	6	-3.5%	22	14.1%	14
31	STL	-45.2%	0-4	0.4	31	6.6%	9	3.8%	8	24.3%	5
32	NO	-53.8%	0-3	0.3	32	25.3%	2	-7.2%	28	8.1%	20

Check out the offensive numbers, and how much space separates New England, Dallas, and Indianapolis from the rest of the league. Wow.

Conventional wisdom says that New England is completely dominating the league after four weeks, and DVOA doesn't disagree. We went back to previous years and re-did DVOA for Week 4 as if we were replaying the season a week at a time -- in other words, the opponent adjustments were only 40% strength and were only based on the four games played to that point. Based on this method, no team has ever had a higher DVOA after four weeks. The Patriots are nearly ten percentage points better than the 1996 Packers, who had the best DVOA ever after three weeks but lost in Minnesota in their fourth game.

Here is a look at the top teams ever after Week 4, with DVOA for each game as it would have looked at the time. Shaded games represent losses. You'll notice the two things most likely to stop the Patriots from enjoying a perfect season -- the two other 2007 teams on this list, both of whom face the Patriots at home during the next few weeks.

Best DVOA as of Week 4, 1996-2007
TEAM	DVOA	YEAR	Week 1		Week 2		Week 3		Week 4
NE	72.4%	2007	at NYJ	75.9%	vs. SD	77.4%	vs. BUF	68.8%	at CIN	67.1%
GB	63.6%	1996	at TB	102.4%	vs. PHI	83.9%	vs. SD	99.9%	at MIN	-49.2%
STL	58.8%	2001	at PHI	13.0%	at SF	47.6%	vs. MIA	117.6%	at DET	66.4%
IND	57.9%	2000	at KC	39.3%	vs. OAK	11.8%	BYE		vs. JAC	125.8%
STL	56.4%	1999	vs. BAL	46.9%	BYE		vs. ATL	61.9%	at CIN	65.2%
DAL	52.1%	2007	vs. NYG	62.6%	at MIA	47.8%	at CHI	69.2%	vs. STL	51.9%
CHI	51.4%	2006	at GB	61.0%	vs. DET	53.6%	at MIN	22.7%	vs. SEA	68.4%
SD	50.5%	2006	at OAK	43.3%	vs. TEN	79.0%	BYE		at BAL	26.9%
JAC	50.3%	1999	vs. SF	118.5%	at CAR	-7.4%	vs. TEN	9.8%	at PIT	55.7%
DEN	49.9%	1998	vs. NE	28.8%	vs. DAL	59.8%	at OAK	54.8%	at WAS	67.1%
IND	48.4%	2007	vs. NO	59.7%	at TEN	9.1%	at HOU	47.3%	vs. DEN	74.3%
SD	47.1%	2001	vs. WAS	75.8%	at DAL	27.3%	vs. CIN	82.1%	at CLE	9.5%

The Patriots also have the best DVOA ever after four games, but only by the smallest margin. The 1999 Rams had their bye week in Week 2, and their fourth game was actually Week 5, when they stomped the 49ers 42-20. So their DVOA after four games was 72.3%.

(By the way, these "as if" weekly DVOA ratings are not yet in the Premium Database, but they will be as soon as we can finish going back and doing every week from every year.)

The Patriots may have the best four-game DVOA to start a season, but do they have the best DVOA over four games at any point in the schedule? Probably not, although they are close. This is a hard question to answer at midseason because the opponent adjustments will change each week. However, I went back and looked at DVOA ratings for each game based on the adjustments for the full season. (These are numbers available in the Premium Database, by the way.) Only one team has ever had a DVOA rating above 60% for four straight games: Indianapolis in Weeks 10-13 of 2004. That was the stretch where the Colts beat Houston, Chicago, Detroit, and Tennessee -- winning each game by 27 points or more. The only way this Patriots streak could match that would be if San Diego and Cincinnati become top 10 teams again by the end of the season. That probably won't happen. (The Cowboys could match the 2004 Colts, but that's even less likely, because it would require the Dolphins and Rams to become above-average teams by the end of the season.)

The only other team to have a DVOA rating above 50% in four straight games was the 1999 Rams, in Weeks 11-14. Those were wins against San Francisco, Carolina, and New Orleans twice.

Actually, we'll have to see what happens with the opponent adjustments, but the Pats may become only the fourth team to put up a single-game DVOA over 60% in just three straight games. The 2004 Colts did it, as did the 1996 Packers in their first three games of the season, and one other team that seems completely out of place -- the 1997 Lions. The Lions finished 9-7, but in Weeks 12-14 they beat Minnesota 38-15, Indianapolis 32-10, and Chicago 55-20, with a DVOA rating over 70% in each victory.

There are interesting things happening below the top three, of course. Perhaps the most interesting development is that DVOA seems to believe the Cardinals may actually be for real this year. Arizona's offense is in the top five, and their rating should actually get better as the opponent adjustments get stronger, because they've played two difficult out-of-division games against two good defenses, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Instead of the entire NFC West being a bunch of losers, like last year, it looks like there's some separation now between the Seahawks and Cardinals on the top and the 49ers and Rams on the bottom.

Actually, the division that looks like a bunch of losers is the AFC West. The idea that Kansas City and Oakland share first place with Denver is absurd, but it isn't like any of these teams are actually playing well. All four AFC West teams rank between 19th and 24th after four weeks.

[10]

Finally, something from the Department of Unabashed Nepotism. If you like the rock and roll music, I encourage you to check out the second full-length record from Mobius Band, "Heaven," which hits stores today. (Note that by "stores," I mean not only a few random buildings that still contain compact discs, but also iTunes and eMusic.) Why is Football Outsiders promoting a record, you may ask? The answer: 1) My brother is in the band and 2) It is very, very good. They're on a new label, Misra Records, best known as home of The Mendoza Line. The official bio here [10] has links to listen to a couple of the tracks. Great stuff if you like indie rock with electronic experimentation. All the reviews will probably still compare them to Postal Service, but this record is a bit harder-edged. (Actually, here is a review [11] that doesn't compare them to Postal Service.) Anyway, do me a favor, give it a listen and perhaps a purchase. Thank you.