Week 5 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through five weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].) OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

Opponent adjustments are currently set at 50% and will increase each week until they are full strength after Week 10.

DAVE is an early-season formula that combines early-season performance with our preseason projection to get a more accurate picture of how well teams will play over the course of the entire season. (DAVE stands for "DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early.") In this week's DAVE ratings, for teams with five games, the preseason projection counts for 27 percent, and the current DVOA counts for 73 percent. For teams with four games, the split is 40/60. In addition, the weight of Weeks 1 and 2 has been lowered slightly.

To save people some time, we request that you please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

Commentary follows the numbers.

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	DAVE	RANK	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	NE	67.7%	1	58.0%	1	75.4%	5-0	42.5%	2	-22.3%	3	2.9%	14
2	IND	51.7%	3	40.2%	2	54.6%	5-0	50.1%	1	-7.4%	10	-5.8%	24
3	PIT	39.4%	5	29.5%	3	49.8%	4-1	12.4%	7	-26.7%	2	0.2%	16
4	DAL	36.4%	2	23.5%	4	46.0%	5-0	26.0%	3	-12.8%	6	-2.4%	21
5	TB	24.4%	4	22.0%	5	23.7%	3-2	13.0%	6	-8.1%	9	3.3%	12
6	GB	21.2%	8	16.7%	8	20.3%	4-1	14.8%	5	-1.4%	14	5.1%	8
7	WAS	17.6%	15	13.8%	10	23.0%	3-1	-0.1%	16	-17.8%	4	-0.1%	18
8	BAL	16.5%	9	15.2%	9	20.3%	3-2	-3.4%	19	-13.5%	5	6.5%	5
9	TEN	16.4%	10	7.4%	12	11.3%	3-1	-4.5%	21	-27.6%	1	-6.6%	26
10	JAC	14.8%	14	19.4%	6	15.8%	3-1	11.5%	8	0.1%	16	3.4%	10
11	PHI	13.2%	11	18.6%	7	12.2%	1-3	5.4%	11	-10.0%	7	-2.2%	20
12	SEA	12.0%	6	8.4%	11	8.4%	3-2	1.1%	15	-4.7%	11	6.2%	6
13	ARI	9.4%	7	2.1%	15	15.0%	3-2	10.5%	9	-0.2%	15	-1.3%	19
14	MIN	6.3%	12	-0.4%	16	7.3%	1-3	-8.4%	25	-8.9%	8	5.8%	7
15	NYG	4.6%	16	4.2%	13	-3.1%	3-2	8.3%	10	-3.2%	13	-6.9%	27
16	HOU	3.3%	13	-3.7%	18	2.3%	3-2	-4.3%	20	3.3%	18	10.9%	1
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	DAVE	RANK	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	SD	-0.8%	23	2.9%	14	-6.9%	2-3	2.8%	14	7.5%	21	3.8%	9
18	CIN	-2.5%	17	-3.3%	17	-9.6%	1-3	17.1%	4	6.8%	20	-12.8%	32
19	CLE	-12.6%	20	-9.8%	19	-23.2%	2-3	-3.0%	18	17.5%	30	7.9%	3
20	MIA	-14.6%	26	-14.9%	22	-16.7%	0-5	3.4%	13	18.1%	31	0.2%	17
21	ATL	-17.6%	21	-11.9%	20	-16.0%	1-4	-8.6%	26	4.8%	19	-4.2%	22
22	DET	-19.1%	18	-18.7%	26	-13.6%	3-2	-6.6%	23	8.1%	23	-4.4%	23
23	BUF	-20.2%	28	-14.9%	21	-25.5%	1-4	-19.9%	30	9.6%	25	9.3%	2
24	DEN	-22.2%	19	-18.3%	25	-21.3%	2-3	4.1%	12	14.2%	27	-12.1%	31
25	KC	-22.9%	22	-22.3%	28	-14.5%	2-3	-18.0%	28	-3.5%	12	-8.3%	29
26	CAR	-24.6%	25	-15.3%	23	-9.7%	3-2	-2.8%	17	15.9%	28	-5.9%	25
27	OAK	-24.8%	24	-17.9%	24	-10.7%	2-2	-5.2%	22	9.4%	24	-10.1%	30
28	CHI	-31.4%	27	-22.9%	29	-28.6%	2-3	-36.8%	31	1.9%	17	7.3%	4
29	STL	-33.2%	31	-31.7%	31	-34.2%	0-5	-17.6%	27	17.4%	29	1.9%	15
30	NYJ	-33.9%	29	-21.0%	27	-33.4%	1-4	-7.7%	24	29.1%	32	3.0%	13
31	NO	-40.6%	32	-25.2%	30	-51.4%	0-4	-19.6%	29	13.1%	26	-7.9%	28
32	SF	-43.0%	30	-33.3%	32	-39.7%	2-3	-38.5%	32	8.0%	22	3.4%	11

ESTIMATED WINS [2] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. (Note: This is based on 2007 performance only. In other words, DVOA, not DAVE.)
VARIANCE [3] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	NE	67.7%	5-0	5.0	1	-14.0%	30	8.7%	5	2.0%	31
2	IND	51.7%	5-0	5.0	1	-3.7%	21	3.9%	11	4.7%	28
3	PIT	39.4%	4-1	3.2	7	-10.9%	27	-0.5%	18	39.2%	1
4	DAL	36.4%	5-0	3.8	3	-18.9%	32	7.6%	7	12.1%	15
5	TB	24.4%	3-2	3.3	5	-6.9%	24	-9.2%	29	29.9%	4
6	GB	21.2%	4-1	3.5	4	-1.6%	18	-12.5%	30	2.8%	29
7	WAS	17.6%	3-1	2.9	11	-3.2%	20	12.2%	1	10.5%	18
8	BAL	16.5%	3-2	3.2	8	-16.5%	31	11.5%	2	6.3%	25
9	TEN	16.4%	3-1	3.3	6	1.7%	14	-3.1%	20	1.1%	32
10	JAC	14.8%	3-1	3.2	9	-9.2%	26	7.2%	8	4.9%	27
11	PHI	13.2%	1-3	3.1	10	4.9%	9	3.7%	12	19.1%	9
12	SEA	12.0%	3-2	2.8	13	5.5%	8	-17.9%	32	24.8%	7
13	ARI	9.4%	3-2	2.9	12	-1.7%	19	-12.6%	31	26.7%	6
14	MIN	6.3%	1-3	2.7	14	-7.7%	25	-7.3%	27	7.8%	23
15	NYG	4.6%	3-2	2.6	16	10.9%	5	-0.4%	15	15.1%	11
16	HOU	3.3%	3-2	2.6	17	-5.6%	23	3.4%	13	8.7%	20
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	SD	-0.8%	2-3	2.3	21	2.5%	13	-0.4%	16	31.0%	2
18	CIN	-2.5%	1-3	2.6	15	16.7%	3	-5.4%	23	2.1%	30
19	CLE	-12.6%	2-3	2.4	18	19.3%	1	-6.1%	25	12.8%	13
20	MIA	-14.6%	0-5	1.8	24	-0.3%	16	10.9%	3	8.0%	22
21	ATL	-17.6%	1-4	1.7	25	3.3%	11	-5.0%	22	6.0%	26
22	DET	-19.1%	3-2	2.3	19	-3.8%	22	4.2%	10	22.9%	8
23	BUF	-20.2%	1-4	1.9	22	17.5%	2	5.1%	9	13.9%	12
24	DEN	-22.2%	2-3	1.6	26	4.2%	10	-3.2%	21	30.1%	3
25	KC	-22.9%	2-3	2.3	20	-1.5%	17	-5.5%	24	12.5%	14
26	CAR	-24.6%	3-2	1.8	23	-12.7%	28	7.8%	6	7.0%	24
27	OAK	-24.8%	2-2	1.4	27	-13.7%	29	1.2%	14	19.1%	10
28	CHI	-31.4%	2-3	1.1	29	3.0%	12	-2.3%	19	12.0%	16
29	STL	-33.2%	0-5	1.2	28	0.5%	15	-0.5%	17	27.9%	5
30	NYJ	-33.9%	1-4	1.0	31	10.8%	6	10.7%	4	8.4%	21
31	NO	-40.6%	0-4	1.0	30	13.6%	4	-8.2%	28	9.2%	19
32	SF	-43.0%	2-3	0.9	32	8.8%	7	-6.7%	26	11.0%	17

Today's DVOA commentary was going to talk in depth about the historic seasons that we are seeing in New England, Indianapolis, and Dallas. Then Tony Romo went out and threw 463 interceptions in just the first eight seconds of Monday Night Football.

OK, I may be exaggerating, but the Cowboys were outplayed by one of the worst teams in the NFL last night. That onside kick recovery may have given Dallas the chance to stay undefeated, but in the DVOA ratings, they are no longer the same team. The ratings for last night:

	OFF	DEF	ST	TOTAL
BUF	-29.9%	-44.0%	23.2%	37.3%
DAL	-35.7%	-26.1%	-7.0%	-16.7%

Take out opponent adjustments and special teams, and the teams were basically even: Buffalo offense/Dallas defense at -37.5%, and Dallas offense/Buffalo defense at -32.5%.

Shockingly, Romo didn't have the worst game of any quarterback this week. Monday Night Football doesn't end up in Quick Reads, but for those curious, Romo was worth -7.9 DPAR passing and -2.2 DPAR rushing. That's not as bad as Jon Kitna was against Washington. Five interceptions with 309 net passing yards is a better game than two interceptions with just 74 net passing yards.

One more note: Remember my post from last week about Dallas on third down [4]? Romo threw two interceptions on third down last night, but the Cowboys still converted 10 of 15 third-down opportunities.

So now our discussion of historic greatness comes down to New England and Indianapolis. Last week [5], I talked about where these teams stand compared to all teams through four weeks since DVOA starts in 1996. After Indy's dominating victory over Tampa Bay, these teams look even better.

Once again, we've gone back and done DVOA if we were replaying the season a week at a time. We're going to look at teams after five games, rather than five weeks, so opponent adjustments are 50% strength for teams without bye weeks and 60% strength for teams with bye weeks, based only on the season to date. Here are the best teams ever through five games:

1999 Rams: 68.7%
2007 Patriots: 67.7%
2006 Bears: 64.7%
1996 Packers: 56.7%
2007 Colts: 51.7%
2001 Rams: 50.7%
2006 Chargers: 47.3%
2000 Ravens: 46.2%
1998 Broncos: 45.8%
2006 Eagles: 45.5%
1999 Jaguars: 45.2%
2004 Eagles: 44.6%

Taking the 2007 teams out of it, seven of the top ten teams were conference champions and four of the top ten teams eventually won the Super Bowl. Three other Super Bowl champions are also in the top 20: the 2005 Steelers, 2004 Patriots, and 1997 Broncos. Of course, both the Patriots and Colts can't win the Super Bowl, and both the Patriots and Colts can't even win the AFC championship.

The Pats and Colts are building these great seasons with offense, but you already knew that. Only seven teams since 1996 have an offensive DVOA over 35% in their first five games. Amazingly, the 2001 Rams, 2004 Colts, and 1998 Vikings are not on the list, but two teams this year rank second and third:

2000 Rams: 50.9%
2007 Colts: 50.1%
2007 Patriots: 42.5%
1999 Redskins: 41.3%
2004 Vikings: 36.1%
1998 Broncos: 35.7%
1999 Rams: 35.3%

The 1999 Rams are only seventh, by the way, because Kurt Warner didn't really become "Kurt Warner" until the second game of the season.

Are the 2007 Patriots and Colts having such great seasons because the overall offensive environment is stronger this year? Not really. Actually, it is probably working the other way around. As many people know, the baselines for DVOA are based on multiple years, which means the league rating for a specific season can be above or below 0%. For the last five years, the ratings go like this:

2002: 1.3%
2003: -1.8%
2004: 1.1%
2005: -1.0%
2006: 0.0%

Yes, last year was exactly average compared to the whole five-year period. Anyway, this year through five weeks, the league rating is 1.2%, roughly the same as 2002 and 2004. However, remove the Patriots and Colts, and the league rating drops to -2.2%. By comparison, if you remove the top two offenses of 2004 (Colts and Chiefs) the rest of the league drops from 1.1% to -1.0%. Remove the top two offenses of 2002 (Chiefs and Raiders) and the rest of the league drops from 1.3% to -0.5%.

By the way, you might be wondering how this is a big year for offense when it seems like every big name running back is averaging three yards per carry. Right now, the league DVOA is 5.5% for passing and -3.7% for rushing. So it's only a big year for one part of the offense.

One last thing, since I know somebody is going to ask. Here are the best defenses ever through five games:

1996 Packers: -45.2%
1999 Jaguars: -38.8%
2006 Ravens: -38.0%
1997 49ers: -37.6%
2000 Bucs: -36.8%
2002 Bucs: -34.3%
2006 Bears: -34.2%

Individual stats pages, offensive line, and defensive front seven are all updated. Each of these other pages will be updated through Week 5 later today or tonight, and we'll let you know when the updates are finished:

DVOA Premium Database [6]: UPDATED
Loser League [7]: UPDATED
Playoff Odds Report [8]: UPDATED

For comments on every team, look for DVOA on AOL, every Wednesday. (This will be linked on the FO Goes Mainstream [9] page.)