by Aaron Schatz
Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through six weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].) OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.
Opponent adjustments are currently set at 60% and will increase each week until they are full strength after Week 10.
DAVE is an early-season formula that combines early-season performance with our preseason projection to get a more accurate picture of how well teams will play over the course of the entire season. (DAVE stands for "DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early.") In this week's DAVE ratings, for teams with six games, the preseason projection counts for 19 percent, and the current DVOA counts for 81 percent. For teams with five games, the split is 27/73. In addition, the weight of Weeks 1-3 has been lowered slightly.
To save people some time, we request that you please use the following format for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
DAVE | RANK |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | NE | 62.8% | 1 | 56.2% | 1 | 66.7% | 6-0 | 40.5% | 2 | -19.3% | 4 | 3.0% | 9 |
| 2 | IND | 53.0% | 2 | 45.2% | 2 | 54.6% | 5-0 | 50.2% | 1 | -8.6% | 8 | -5.8% | 28 |
| 3 | PIT | 36.9% | 3 | 28.8% | 3 | 49.8% | 4-1 | 10.8% | 8 | -25.9% | 1 | 0.2% | 18 |
| 4 | DAL | 34.9% | 4 | 25.3% | 4 | 35.7% | 5-1 | 26.3% | 3 | -9.5% | 7 | -1.0% | 20 |
| 5 | TB | 28.7% | 5 | 25.3% | 5 | 26.5% | 4-2 | 18.1% | 4 | -7.5% | 11 | 3.1% | 8 |
| 6 | GB | 19.1% | 6 | 15.5% | 8 | 17.7% | 5-1 | 9.3% | 9 | -9.6% | 6 | 0.2% | 17 |
| 7 | JAC | 17.9% | 10 | 20.7% | 6 | 20.2% | 4-1 | 17.4% | 5 | 0.6% | 14 | 1.1% | 14 |
| 8 | BAL | 15.8% | 8 | 15.3% | 9 | 26.4% | 4-2 | -10.3% | 25 | -18.3% | 5 | 7.8% | 4 |
| 9 | WAS | 15.8% | 7 | 15.6% | 7 | 15.0% | 3-2 | -8.5% | 24 | -22.7% | 3 | 1.5% | 13 |
| 10 | TEN | 14.3% | 9 | 9.7% | 13 | 4.0% | 3-2 | -3.5% | 20 | -23.5% | 2 | -5.8% | 27 |
| 11 | PHI | 11.6% | 11 | 12.8% | 10 | 14.5% | 2-3 | 7.9% | 11 | -8.6% | 9 | -4.9% | 23 |
| 12 | NYG | 10.8% | 15 | 10.2% | 11 | 5.6% | 4-2 | 14.1% | 6 | -2.2% | 13 | -5.5% | 26 |
| 13 | SD | 7.8% | 17 | 10.2% | 12 | 6.7% | 3-3 | 7.9% | 10 | 2.0% | 16 | 1.9% | 12 |
| 14 | SEA | 4.1% | 12 | 2.7% | 14 | 5.9% | 3-3 | 2.2% | 15 | 0.9% | 15 | 2.9% | 10 |
| 15 | MIN | 3.7% | 14 | 0.8% | 15 | 10.2% | 2-3 | -2.7% | 18 | -4.1% | 12 | 2.4% | 11 |
| 16 | HOU | -0.9% | 16 | -5.8% | 17 | -4.8% | 3-3 | -3.4% | 19 | 7.1% | 20 | 9.7% | 1 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
DAVE | RANK |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | ARI | -3.4% | 13 | -6.3% | 19 | 4.3% | 3-3 | 0.6% | 16 | 4.6% | 18 | 0.6% | 15 |
| 18 | CLE | -4.2% | 19 | -3.5% | 16 | -10.1% | 3-3 | 5.4% | 12 | 16.9% | 30 | 7.4% | 5 |
| 19 | CIN | -6.5% | 18 | -6.8% | 20 | -10.3% | 1-4 | 11.3% | 7 | 7.7% | 21 | -10.1% | 30 |
| 20 | CAR | -10.7% | 26 | -6.1% | 18 | 2.3% | 4-2 | -0.7% | 17 | 4.8% | 19 | -5.2% | 25 |
| 21 | KC | -12.1% | 25 | -13.1% | 21 | -7.7% | 3-3 | -14.7% | 28 | -7.6% | 10 | -5.0% | 24 |
| 22 | BUF | -19.2% | 23 | -14.2% | 22 | -25.5% | 1-4 | -19.9% | 29 | 8.7% | 22 | 9.3% | 2 |
| 23 | DET | -20.8% | 22 | -19.9% | 25 | -13.6% | 3-2 | -7.1% | 21 | 9.3% | 24 | -4.4% | 22 |
| 24 | DEN | -21.3% | 24 | -20.1% | 26 | -21.3% | 2-3 | 3.8% | 13 | 12.9% | 28 | -12.1% | 32 |
| 25 | ATL | -21.6% | 21 | -17.1% | 23 | -21.6% | 1-5 | -8.5% | 23 | 9.2% | 23 | -3.9% | 21 |
| 26 | MIA | -22.0% | 20 | -21.3% | 27 | -21.3% | 0-6 | 2.6% | 14 | 24.8% | 31 | 0.2% | 19 |
| 27 | CHI | -24.0% | 28 | -18.6% | 24 | -26.8% | 2-4 | -29.8% | 31 | 2.5% | 17 | 8.3% | 3 |
| 28 | NO | -31.1% | 31 | -24.1% | 28 | -43.5% | 1-4 | -12.4% | 26 | 12.2% | 27 | -6.5% | 29 |
| 29 | STL | -31.8% | 29 | -29.8% | 30 | -34.8% | 0-6 | -22.3% | 30 | 10.0% | 25 | 0.5% | 16 |
| 30 | NYJ | -33.8% | 30 | -24.8% | 29 | -33.9% | 1-5 | -8.5% | 22 | 28.6% | 32 | 3.2% | 7 |
| 31 | OAK | -37.7% | 27 | -31.8% | 31 | -26.5% | 2-3 | -13.5% | 27 | 14.1% | 29 | -10.1% | 31 |
| 32 | SF | -45.7% | 32 | -39.3% | 32 | -39.7% | 2-3 | -38.2% | 32 | 10.9% | 26 | 3.4% | 6 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | NE | 62.8% | 6-0 | 5.3 | 2 | -3.5% | 21 | 4.7% | 10 | 3.8% | 30 |
| 2 | IND | 53.0% | 5-0 | 6.0 | 1 | -1.7% | 19 | 5.4% | 9 | 8.6% | 20 |
| 3 | PIT | 36.9% | 4-1 | 3.8 | 9 | -11.4% | 31 | -1.4% | 17 | 36.8% | 1 |
| 4 | DAL | 34.9% | 5-1 | 4.4 | 3 | -3.9% | 23 | 2.3% | 14 | 10.6% | 18 |
| 5 | TB | 28.7% | 4-2 | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3% | 17 | -12.2% | 30 | 25.5% | 4 |
| 6 | GB | 19.1% | 5-1 | 4.1 | 5 | 4.3% | 10 | -14.1% | 31 | 4.2% | 29 |
| 7 | JAC | 17.9% | 4-1 | 3.9 | 6 | -6.9% | 27 | 9.4% | 5 | 5.5% | 26 |
| 8 | BAL | 15.8% | 4-2 | 3.7 | 10 | -20.9% | 32 | 15.0% | 1 | 4.2% | 28 |
| 9 | WAS | 15.8% | 3-2 | 3.5 | 11 | -0.2% | 15 | 10.7% | 3 | 8.4% | 21 |
| 10 | TEN | 14.3% | 3-2 | 3.8 | 8 | 7.8% | 6 | -4.5% | 20 | 2.6% | 31 |
| 11 | PHI | 11.6% | 2-3 | 3.9 | 7 | -1.5% | 18 | 7.1% | 7 | 14.3% | 12 |
| 12 | NYG | 10.8% | 4-2 | 3.5 | 12 | 4.3% | 9 | -0.3% | 16 | 12.8% | 13 |
| 13 | SD | 7.8% | 3-3 | 3.3 | 13 | -2.2% | 20 | 1.2% | 15 | 26.7% | 3 |
| 14 | SEA | 4.1% | 3-3 | 3.0 | 18 | -3.5% | 22 | -14.6% | 32 | 21.6% | 5 |
| 15 | MIN | 3.7% | 2-3 | 3.2 | 14 | -9.9% | 28 | -5.0% | 23 | 6.3% | 24 |
| 16 | HOU | -0.9% | 3-3 | 2.8 | 19 | 0.7% | 14 | 4.2% | 13 | 10.1% | 19 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
PAST SCHED |
RANK |
FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 17 | ARI | -3.4% | 3-3 | 2.6 | 22 | -5.2% | 26 | -11.3% | 29 | 31.6% | 2 |
| 18 | CLE | -4.2% | 3-3 | 3.2 | 16 | 8.2% | 5 | -8.4% | 27 | 12.8% | 14 |
| 19 | CIN | -6.5% | 1-4 | 3.0 | 17 | 11.1% | 3 | -5.6% | 24 | 1.4% | 32 |
| 20 | CAR | -10.7% | 4-2 | 2.8 | 20 | -10.0% | 29 | 7.4% | 6 | 19.4% | 8 |
| 21 | KC | -12.1% | 3-3 | 3.2 | 15 | -0.3% | 16 | -7.8% | 26 | 16.0% | 11 |
| 22 | BUF | -19.2% | 1-4 | 2.3 | 23 | 13.2% | 2 | 4.6% | 11 | 11.7% | 16 |
| 23 | DET | -20.8% | 3-2 | 2.7 | 21 | -5.1% | 25 | 6.3% | 8 | 17.4% | 10 |
| 24 | DEN | -21.3% | 2-3 | 2.0 | 24 | 3.6% | 11 | -2.6% | 18 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 25 | ATL | -21.6% | 1-5 | 2.0 | 25 | 5.9% | 7 | -3.9% | 19 | 5.5% | 27 |
| 26 | MIA | -22.0% | 0-6 | 1.9 | 26 | -4.3% | 24 | 12.2% | 2 | 8.3% | 23 |
| 27 | CHI | -24.0% | 2-4 | 1.8 | 27 | 5.4% | 8 | -4.6% | 21 | 11.3% | 17 |
| 28 | NO | -31.1% | 1-4 | 1.6 | 28 | 14.9% | 1 | -10.1% | 28 | 8.3% | 22 |
| 29 | STL | -31.8% | 0-6 | 1.5 | 29 | 3.3% | 13 | -4.8% | 22 | 19.1% | 9 |
| 30 | NYJ | -33.8% | 1-5 | 1.3 | 30 | 10.0% | 4 | 10.1% | 4 | 5.7% | 25 |
| 31 | OAK | -37.7% | 2-3 | 0.9 | 32 | -10.1% | 30 | 4.5% | 12 | 21.1% | 6 |
| 32 | SF | -45.7% | 2-3 | 1.0 | 31 | 3.6% | 12 | -6.2% | 25 | 12.4% | 15 |
| BEST TOTAL DVOA | BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA | ||||||||||
| AFTER 6 WEEKS | AFTER 6 GAMES | AFTER 6 WEEKS | AFTER 6 GAMES | ||||||||
| YEAR | TEAM | DVOA | YEAR | TEAM | DVOA | YEAR | TEAM | DVOA | YEAR | TEAM | DVOA |
| 1999 | STL | 68.7% | 1999 | STL | 64.8% | 2000 | STL | 51.0% | 2000 | STL | 53.6% |
| 1996 | GB | 63.9% | 1996 | GB | 63.9% | 2007 | IND | 50.2% | 2007 | NE | 40.5% |
| 2007 | NE | 62.8% | 2007 | NE | 62.8% | 1999 | WAS | 41.3% | 2000 | IND | 40.3% |
| 2007 | IND | 53.0% | 2001 | STL | 51.4% | 2007 | NE | 40.5% | 1999 | WAS | 39.1% |
| 2001 | STL | 51.4% | 1998 | DEN | 47.8% | 1998 | DEN | 36.5% | 2004 | IND | 38.6% |
| 1998 | DEN | 47.8% | 2006 | CHI | 46.7% | 2004 | MIN | 36.1% | 1998 | DEN | 36.5% |
| 2006 | SD | 47.3% | 2000 | MIA | 43.5% | 1999 | STL | 35.3% | 1999 | STL | 36.1% |
| 2006 | CHI | 46.7% | 2005 | IND | 43.0% | 2001 | STL | 34.9% | 2001 | STL | 34.9% |
| 2004 | PHI | 44.6% | 2006 | PHI | 39.9% | 1998 | SF | 34.2% | 2005 | SEA | 33.9% |
| 2000 | MIA | 43.5% | 1999 | JAC | 39.3% | 2000 | IND | 34.2% | 2005 | SD | 31.8% |
I apologize for the lack of commentary today, but I need to get all the numbers online and then go catch a flight home from L.A. to Boston. I promise there will be more commentary on FO next week. (Hey, the good news is, you get the ratings earlier this week because I'm not waiting to write commentary...)
For (short) comments on every team, look for DVOA on AOL, every Wednesday. (This will be linked on the FO Goes Mainstream [4] page.)
Individual stats pages, offensive line, and defensive front seven are all updated. Each of these other pages will be updated through Week 6 later today or tonight:
Links:
[1] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
[2] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#estimated_wins
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com//info/glossary#variance
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/category/fo-goes-mainstream
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/store/premium
[6] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/loser2/results.php
[7] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php