Week 6 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through six weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].) OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

Opponent adjustments are currently set at 60% and will increase each week until they are full strength after Week 10.

DAVE is an early-season formula that combines early-season performance with our preseason projection to get a more accurate picture of how well teams will play over the course of the entire season. (DAVE stands for "DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early.") In this week's DAVE ratings, for teams with six games, the preseason projection counts for 19 percent, and the current DVOA counts for 81 percent. For teams with five games, the split is 27/73. In addition, the weight of Weeks 1-3 has been lowered slightly.

To save people some time, we request that you please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	DAVE	RANK	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	NE	62.8%	1	56.2%	1	66.7%	6-0	40.5%	2	-19.3%	4	3.0%	9
2	IND	53.0%	2	45.2%	2	54.6%	5-0	50.2%	1	-8.6%	8	-5.8%	28
3	PIT	36.9%	3	28.8%	3	49.8%	4-1	10.8%	8	-25.9%	1	0.2%	18
4	DAL	34.9%	4	25.3%	4	35.7%	5-1	26.3%	3	-9.5%	7	-1.0%	20
5	TB	28.7%	5	25.3%	5	26.5%	4-2	18.1%	4	-7.5%	11	3.1%	8
6	GB	19.1%	6	15.5%	8	17.7%	5-1	9.3%	9	-9.6%	6	0.2%	17
7	JAC	17.9%	10	20.7%	6	20.2%	4-1	17.4%	5	0.6%	14	1.1%	14
8	BAL	15.8%	8	15.3%	9	26.4%	4-2	-10.3%	25	-18.3%	5	7.8%	4
9	WAS	15.8%	7	15.6%	7	15.0%	3-2	-8.5%	24	-22.7%	3	1.5%	13
10	TEN	14.3%	9	9.7%	13	4.0%	3-2	-3.5%	20	-23.5%	2	-5.8%	27
11	PHI	11.6%	11	12.8%	10	14.5%	2-3	7.9%	11	-8.6%	9	-4.9%	23
12	NYG	10.8%	15	10.2%	11	5.6%	4-2	14.1%	6	-2.2%	13	-5.5%	26
13	SD	7.8%	17	10.2%	12	6.7%	3-3	7.9%	10	2.0%	16	1.9%	12
14	SEA	4.1%	12	2.7%	14	5.9%	3-3	2.2%	15	0.9%	15	2.9%	10
15	MIN	3.7%	14	0.8%	15	10.2%	2-3	-2.7%	18	-4.1%	12	2.4%	11
16	HOU	-0.9%	16	-5.8%	17	-4.8%	3-3	-3.4%	19	7.1%	20	9.7%	1
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	DAVE	RANK	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	ARI	-3.4%	13	-6.3%	19	4.3%	3-3	0.6%	16	4.6%	18	0.6%	15
18	CLE	-4.2%	19	-3.5%	16	-10.1%	3-3	5.4%	12	16.9%	30	7.4%	5
19	CIN	-6.5%	18	-6.8%	20	-10.3%	1-4	11.3%	7	7.7%	21	-10.1%	30
20	CAR	-10.7%	26	-6.1%	18	2.3%	4-2	-0.7%	17	4.8%	19	-5.2%	25
21	KC	-12.1%	25	-13.1%	21	-7.7%	3-3	-14.7%	28	-7.6%	10	-5.0%	24
22	BUF	-19.2%	23	-14.2%	22	-25.5%	1-4	-19.9%	29	8.7%	22	9.3%	2
23	DET	-20.8%	22	-19.9%	25	-13.6%	3-2	-7.1%	21	9.3%	24	-4.4%	22
24	DEN	-21.3%	24	-20.1%	26	-21.3%	2-3	3.8%	13	12.9%	28	-12.1%	32
25	ATL	-21.6%	21	-17.1%	23	-21.6%	1-5	-8.5%	23	9.2%	23	-3.9%	21
26	MIA	-22.0%	20	-21.3%	27	-21.3%	0-6	2.6%	14	24.8%	31	0.2%	19
27	CHI	-24.0%	28	-18.6%	24	-26.8%	2-4	-29.8%	31	2.5%	17	8.3%	3
28	NO	-31.1%	31	-24.1%	28	-43.5%	1-4	-12.4%	26	12.2%	27	-6.5%	29
29	STL	-31.8%	29	-29.8%	30	-34.8%	0-6	-22.3%	30	10.0%	25	0.5%	16
30	NYJ	-33.8%	30	-24.8%	29	-33.9%	1-5	-8.5%	22	28.6%	32	3.2%	7
31	OAK	-37.7%	27	-31.8%	31	-26.5%	2-3	-13.5%	27	14.1%	29	-10.1%	31
32	SF	-45.7%	32	-39.3%	32	-39.7%	2-3	-38.2%	32	10.9%	26	3.4%	6

ESTIMATED WINS [2] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. (Note: This is based on 2007 performance only. In other words, DVOA, not DAVE.)
VARIANCE [3] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	NE	62.8%	6-0	5.3	2	-3.5%	21	4.7%	10	3.8%	30
2	IND	53.0%	5-0	6.0	1	-1.7%	19	5.4%	9	8.6%	20
3	PIT	36.9%	4-1	3.8	9	-11.4%	31	-1.4%	17	36.8%	1
4	DAL	34.9%	5-1	4.4	3	-3.9%	23	2.3%	14	10.6%	18
5	TB	28.7%	4-2	4.3	4	-0.3%	17	-12.2%	30	25.5%	4
6	GB	19.1%	5-1	4.1	5	4.3%	10	-14.1%	31	4.2%	29
7	JAC	17.9%	4-1	3.9	6	-6.9%	27	9.4%	5	5.5%	26
8	BAL	15.8%	4-2	3.7	10	-20.9%	32	15.0%	1	4.2%	28
9	WAS	15.8%	3-2	3.5	11	-0.2%	15	10.7%	3	8.4%	21
10	TEN	14.3%	3-2	3.8	8	7.8%	6	-4.5%	20	2.6%	31
11	PHI	11.6%	2-3	3.9	7	-1.5%	18	7.1%	7	14.3%	12
12	NYG	10.8%	4-2	3.5	12	4.3%	9	-0.3%	16	12.8%	13
13	SD	7.8%	3-3	3.3	13	-2.2%	20	1.2%	15	26.7%	3
14	SEA	4.1%	3-3	3.0	18	-3.5%	22	-14.6%	32	21.6%	5
15	MIN	3.7%	2-3	3.2	14	-9.9%	28	-5.0%	23	6.3%	24
16	HOU	-0.9%	3-3	2.8	19	0.7%	14	4.2%	13	10.1%	19
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	ARI	-3.4%	3-3	2.6	22	-5.2%	26	-11.3%	29	31.6%	2
18	CLE	-4.2%	3-3	3.2	16	8.2%	5	-8.4%	27	12.8%	14
19	CIN	-6.5%	1-4	3.0	17	11.1%	3	-5.6%	24	1.4%	32
20	CAR	-10.7%	4-2	2.8	20	-10.0%	29	7.4%	6	19.4%	8
21	KC	-12.1%	3-3	3.2	15	-0.3%	16	-7.8%	26	16.0%	11
22	BUF	-19.2%	1-4	2.3	23	13.2%	2	4.6%	11	11.7%	16
23	DET	-20.8%	3-2	2.7	21	-5.1%	25	6.3%	8	17.4%	10
24	DEN	-21.3%	2-3	2.0	24	3.6%	11	-2.6%	18	20.0%	7
25	ATL	-21.6%	1-5	2.0	25	5.9%	7	-3.9%	19	5.5%	27
26	MIA	-22.0%	0-6	1.9	26	-4.3%	24	12.2%	2	8.3%	23
27	CHI	-24.0%	2-4	1.8	27	5.4%	8	-4.6%	21	11.3%	17
28	NO	-31.1%	1-4	1.6	28	14.9%	1	-10.1%	28	8.3%	22
29	STL	-31.8%	0-6	1.5	29	3.3%	13	-4.8%	22	19.1%	9
30	NYJ	-33.8%	1-5	1.3	30	10.0%	4	10.1%	4	5.7%	25
31	OAK	-37.7%	2-3	0.9	32	-10.1%	30	4.5%	12	21.1%	6
32	SF	-45.7%	2-3	1.0	31	3.6%	12	-6.2%	25	12.4%	15

Best DVOA Ever Watch

BEST TOTAL DVOA						BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA
AFTER 6 WEEKS			AFTER 6 GAMES			AFTER 6 WEEKS			AFTER 6 GAMES
YEAR	TEAM	DVOA	YEAR	TEAM	DVOA	YEAR	TEAM	DVOA	YEAR	TEAM	DVOA
1999	STL	68.7%	1999	STL	64.8%	2000	STL	51.0%	2000	STL	53.6%
1996	GB	63.9%	1996	GB	63.9%	2007	IND	50.2%	2007	NE	40.5%
2007	NE	62.8%	2007	NE	62.8%	1999	WAS	41.3%	2000	IND	40.3%
2007	IND	53.0%	2001	STL	51.4%	2007	NE	40.5%	1999	WAS	39.1%
2001	STL	51.4%	1998	DEN	47.8%	1998	DEN	36.5%	2004	IND	38.6%
1998	DEN	47.8%	2006	CHI	46.7%	2004	MIN	36.1%	1998	DEN	36.5%
2006	SD	47.3%	2000	MIA	43.5%	1999	STL	35.3%	1999	STL	36.1%
2006	CHI	46.7%	2005	IND	43.0%	2001	STL	34.9%	2001	STL	34.9%
2004	PHI	44.6%	2006	PHI	39.9%	1998	SF	34.2%	2005	SEA	33.9%
2000	MIA	43.5%	1999	JAC	39.3%	2000	IND	34.2%	2005	SD	31.8%

I apologize for the lack of commentary today, but I need to get all the numbers online and then go catch a flight home from L.A. to Boston. I promise there will be more commentary on FO next week. (Hey, the good news is, you get the ratings earlier this week because I'm not waiting to write commentary...)

For (short) comments on every team, look for DVOA on AOL, every Wednesday. (This will be linked on the FO Goes Mainstream [4] page.)

Individual stats pages, offensive line, and defensive front seven are all updated. Each of these other pages will be updated through Week 6 later today or tonight:

DVOA Premium Database [5] (UPDATED!)
Loser League [6] (UPDATED!)
Playoff Odds Report [7] (UPDATED!)