Week 8 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through eight weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].) OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

Opponent adjustments are currently set at 80% and will increase each week until they are full strength after Week 10.

No more DAVE this week, as all ratings now are based solely on performance in 2007. Instead, we bring back WEIGHTED DVOA, the formula which drops the importance of earlier games to get a better picture of how well teams are playing now. Right now, those ratings aren't much different from regular DVOA, but that will change over time, especially for teams that struggled early like the Giants and Saints.

To save people some time, we request that you please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	NE	70.6%	1	73.6%	8-0	49.0%	1	-16.4%	3	5.2%	5
2	IND	57.0%	2	55.6%	7-0	42.8%	2	-13.4%	6	0.8%	13
3	DAL	35.2%	3	35.1%	6-1	24.9%	3	-10.6%	7	-0.3%	14
4	PIT	29.9%	4	37.9%	5-2	13.3%	7	-18.2%	2	-1.6%	19
5	SD	20.0%	9	18.4%	4-3	11.1%	9	-2.3%	14	6.7%	4
6	TB	18.6%	5	10.9%	4-4	15.9%	4	-3.9%	13	-1.2%	16
7	GB	17.3%	7	19.8%	6-1	11.7%	8	-7.1%	9	-1.4%	17
8	TEN	17.1%	6	17.1%	5-2	-3.3%	19	-25.9%	1	-5.4%	29
9	JAC	17.0%	8	11.3%	5-2	8.2%	12	-6.0%	10	2.8%	10
10	SEA	12.4%	10	20.1%	4-3	-2.5%	18	-5.6%	11	9.4%	2
11	PHI	10.6%	13	16.3%	3-4	14.1%	6	1.1%	17	-2.3%	21
12	NYG	6.7%	12	13.3%	6-2	7.0%	13	-5.3%	12	-5.6%	31
13	WAS	4.1%	11	-6.4%	4-3	-12.2%	25	-14.3%	5	2.0%	12
14	BAL	0.5%	14	14.3%	4-3	-13.0%	26	-15.1%	4	-1.6%	18
15	CLE	0.0%	18	-2.3%	4-3	10.3%	11	17.9%	29	7.6%	3
16	MIN	-2.0%	15	-0.6%	2-5	-4.2%	20	0.4%	16	2.6%	11
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	CIN	-2.1%	16	-4.0%	2-5	14.6%	5	12.0%	24	-4.7%	27
18	BUF	-5.8%	23	-9.8%	3-4	-15.1%	28	0.3%	15	9.5%	1
19	ARI	-6.1%	17	3.2%	3-4	-2.3%	17	3.4%	18	-0.4%	15
20	DEN	-7.8%	21	-13.9%	3-4	10.8%	10	15.6%	28	-3.0%	22
21	KC	-9.3%	20	-2.3%	4-3	-15.1%	27	-8.0%	8	-2.2%	20
22	DET	-12.9%	24	-5.3%	5-2	0.8%	15	7.0%	22	-6.6%	32
23	NO	-14.0%	26	-18.6%	3-4	0.0%	16	10.7%	23	-3.3%	23
24	HOU	-14.7%	19	-18.6%	3-5	-4.6%	22	13.1%	25	3.0%	8
25	CAR	-14.7%	22	-7.8%	4-3	-4.2%	21	5.2%	20	-5.3%	28
26	CHI	-23.8%	25	-26.2%	3-5	-24.6%	31	4.0%	19	4.7%	6
27	MIA	-25.1%	28	-30.7%	0-8	2.9%	14	24.6%	31	-3.5%	24
28	ATL	-25.6%	27	-21.1%	1-6	-8.6%	24	13.1%	26	-3.9%	25
29	OAK	-30.0%	30	-23.5%	2-5	-17.7%	29	6.6%	21	-5.6%	30
30	NYJ	-31.2%	29	-32.9%	1-7	-8.6%	23	27.0%	32	4.4%	7
31	STL	-40.4%	31	-41.5%	0-8	-22.4%	30	13.7%	27	-4.4%	26
32	SF	-50.0%	32	-44.8%	2-5	-34.1%	32	18.8%	30	3.0%	9

ESTIMATED WINS [2] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. (Note: This is based on 2007 performance only. In other words, DVOA, not DAVE.)
VARIANCE [3] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	WEIGHTED VOA	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	NE	70.6%	8-0	8.0	1	70.3%	1	-0.6%	19	5.3%	13	5.0%	24
2	IND	57.0%	7-0	8.0	1	57.2%	2	0.2%	16	5.7%	10	5.8%	22
3	DAL	35.2%	6-1	6.0	3	34.4%	3	-2.5%	23	-0.7%	18	8.7%	18
4	PIT	29.9%	5-2	5.0	9	27.3%	4	-7.4%	29	-1.3%	19	29.0%	1
5	SD	20.0%	4-3	5.2	6	23.2%	5	0.3%	15	3.7%	14	16.4%	6
6	TB	18.6%	4-4	5.0	8	17.9%	7	2.7%	10	-18.3%	31	24.7%	3
7	GB	17.3%	6-1	5.5	4	16.2%	9	1.0%	13	-13.8%	29	4.2%	27
8	TEN	17.1%	5-2	5.0	7	17.2%	8	1.0%	12	1.8%	17	4.5%	26
9	JAC	17.0%	5-2	5.3	5	18.0%	6	4.4%	9	5.6%	11	3.6%	29
10	SEA	12.4%	4-3	4.6	11	11.7%	10	-8.0%	30	-18.7%	32	17.9%	5
11	PHI	10.6%	3-4	4.8	10	9.2%	11	-5.2%	26	14.9%	3	14.4%	8
12	NYG	6.7%	6-2	4.5	13	8.2%	12	-8.1%	31	9.5%	4	8.2%	20
13	WAS	4.1%	4-3	4.1	18	4.3%	13	7.6%	4	5.4%	12	9.5%	17
14	BAL	0.5%	4-3	3.8	20	0.9%	15	-17.0%	32	24.1%	1	2.8%	31
15	CLE	0.0%	4-3	4.5	14	1.3%	14	0.4%	14	-8.4%	25	8.7%	19
16	MIN	-2.0%	2-5	4.1	15	-2.9%	17	-1.1%	20	-9.5%	26	3.8%	28
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	WEIGHTED VOA	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	CIN	-2.1%	2-5	4.6	12	-2.9%	18	9.1%	2	-10.0%	28	2.1%	32
18	BUF	-5.8%	3-4	4.1	16	-2.5%	16	8.3%	3	7.1%	8	12.7%	13
19	ARI	-6.1%	3-4	3.4	23	-7.3%	19	-7.3%	28	-14.2%	30	27.7%	2
20	DEN	-7.8%	3-4	3.6	21	-10.3%	21	13.2%	1	-8.1%	24	16.3%	7
21	KC	-9.3%	4-3	4.1	17	-7.9%	20	-4.4%	25	2.7%	16	9.5%	16
22	DET	-12.9%	5-2	4.0	19	-12.5%	23	-5.8%	27	8.9%	5	18.0%	4
23	NO	-14.0%	3-4	3.3	24	-11.0%	22	1.8%	11	-9.9%	27	10.0%	14
24	HOU	-14.7%	3-5	3.0	25	-17.3%	25	4.5%	8	7.2%	7	13.9%	11
25	CAR	-14.7%	4-3	3.5	22	-13.2%	24	-3.2%	24	3.5%	15	14.1%	9
26	CHI	-23.8%	3-5	2.6	26	-23.3%	26	5.8%	6	-1.7%	20	6.1%	21
27	MIA	-25.1%	0-8	2.3	27	-25.8%	28	5.1%	7	8.3%	6	5.0%	23
28	ATL	-25.6%	1-6	2.2	28	-25.4%	27	-0.6%	18	-2.3%	21	4.6%	25
29	OAK	-30.0%	2-5	1.7	30	-29.1%	29	-2.2%	22	6.7%	9	13.0%	12
30	NYJ	-31.2%	1-7	1.9	29	-30.7%	30	6.2%	5	15.3%	2	3.2%	30
31	STL	-40.4%	0-8	1.5	31	-39.8%	31	-0.5%	17	-4.8%	22	14.0%	10
32	SF	-50.0%	2-5	1.1	32	-51.4%	32	-1.4%	21	-7.5%	23	9.7%	15

Best DVOA Ever Watch

BEST TOTAL DVOA						BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA
AFTER 8 WEEKS			AFTER 8 GAMES			AFTER 8 WEEKS			AFTER 8 GAMES
2007	NE	70.6%	2007	NE	70.6%	2007	NE	49.0%	2007	NE	49.0%
2007	IND	57.0%	1996	GB	49.4%	2000	STL	45.5%	2000	STL	43.7%
1999	STL	55.9%	2001	STL	46.8%	2000	IND	44.9%	2000	IND	43.1%
1996	GB	55.9%	1999	STL	46.5%	2007	IND	42.8%	2004	IND	40.3%
2006	CHI	47.4%	2001	PHI	46.5%	2004	IND	37.8%	1999	WAS	36.3%
1998	DEN	43.6%	2000	TEN	43.7%	1999	WAS	36.5%	1998	DEN	33.0%
2001	STL	43.5%	1999	JAC	43.1%	1998	DEN	35.0%	2006	IND	32.7%
2005	IND	40.6%	2003	KC	40.4%	2006	IND	34.8%	2002	SF	32.1%
2003	KC	40.4%	2005	IND	40.1%	2002	SF	34.3%	2004	KC	30.9%
2002	TB	39.9%	2002	TB	39.9%	2004	KC	31.6%	2005	DEN	30.4%

* * * * * *

I'm really sick today and I think I've been coherent for about three hours total, so no extended commentary, just a couple notes. No team had ever put up 70% DVOA for the season any later than Week 5 until the current Patriots. That rating is just mind-blowing. My nightmare scenario has the Colts beating the Patriots by a last-minute field goal, which would probably mean the Pats still had the higher DVOA even though the Colts were the last undefeated team.

Mike Harris re-did the playoff odds as if each team won the "Game of the Century." If the Colts win, their chances of going 16-0 improve from 4.7% to 11.4%. If the Patriots win, their chances of going 16-0 improve from 12.3% to 20.0%.

Look for updates soon on these pages:

DVOA Premium Database [4] UPDATED!
Loser League [5] UPDATED!
Playoff Odds Report [6] UPDATED!
Individual position stats pages

For (short) comments on every team, look for DVOA on AOL, every Wednesday. (This will be linked on the FO Goes Mainstream [7] page.)