Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

By now we're used to DVOA giving an account of a game that's very different from conventional wisdom, and even at times very different from the final score. That was definitely the truth with two games in Week 11.

The Cleveland Browns had what seems like huge emotional win, beating the evil ex-Browns (a.k.a. the Ravens) in overtime. Despite this, the Browns actually drop a spot in the DVOA rankings. To the DVOA formula, this was effectively a tie against a bad team. We're all so used to thinking of Baltimore as good and Cleveland as bad that it is hard to see it this way, but how would you feel if the Giants had to scratch their way through overtime to beat the Texans? The difference in DVOA is roughly the same; only the perception is different.

On the other hand, you have the Broncos' 34-20 win over the Titans. That looks like a solid victory, not an overwhelming one -- but Denver gets a 96.0% DVOA, making this one of the top games of the season. Denver outscored the Titans despite running 23 fewer plays. All three Denver touchdown drives went 80 yards, and the Titans fumbled four times and only lost one. After two weeks without Albert Haynesworth, the Titans have gone from ranking as one of the top 10 defenses of the DVOA Era to not even ranking as the top defense of 2007. Even stranger, the number one pass defense is now Indianapolis. Raise your hand if you thought that the Colts defense would carry Peyton Manning through the regular season... yes, that's none of you.

Overall, the Broncos climb three spots this week, and the Titans drop five.

Of course, let's be honest -- all of this movement is dwarfed by the story of the season, which is New England's quest for the perfect season. By now everyone is probably sick and tired about talking about how dominant the Patriots are, but every week it gets more and more impressive.

* * * * *

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 11 weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].) OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

To save people some time, we request that you please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	WEI. DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	NE	73.7%	1	74.2%	1	10-0	51.3%	1	-16.9%	3	5.5%	7
2	DAL	39.0%	3	38.4%	2	9-1	30.3%	2	-9.2%	7	-0.5%	16
3	IND	34.9%	2	32.5%	3	8-2	25.7%	3	-15.7%	4	-6.5%	30
4	GB	28.4%	5	28.9%	4	9-1	18.7%	4	-7.1%	9	2.5%	10
5	PIT	25.4%	4	21.3%	5	7-3	7.4%	11	-21.1%	1	-3.1%	23
6	TB	20.6%	6	20.3%	6	6-4	15.4%	5	-7.2%	8	-2.0%	18
7	SD	14.4%	7	16.3%	7	5-5	2.7%	15	-4.0%	12	7.8%	2
8	JAC	13.5%	8	14.5%	8	7-3	12.1%	9	2.7%	17	4.1%	9
9	NYG	9.9%	11	11.9%	9	7-3	7.0%	12	-5.8%	10	-2.8%	22
10	SEA	9.4%	9	8.1%	11	6-4	1.8%	16	-1.8%	14	5.8%	6
11	WAS	7.5%	14	7.8%	12	5-5	0.9%	17	-5.0%	11	1.6%	13
12	PHI	5.9%	13	2.5%	14	5-5	13.9%	6	3.6%	19	-4.4%	29
13	CLE	5.4%	12	8.3%	10	6-4	12.6%	7	15.9%	29	8.7%	1
14	MIN	4.0%	15	3.8%	13	4-6	3.8%	13	1.8%	16	2.0%	11
15	TEN	2.7%	10	0.7%	16	6-4	-11.5%	25	-18.5%	2	-4.3%	28
16	DEN	1.8%	19	1.0%	15	5-5	11.5%	10	10.9%	24	1.3%	14
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	WEI. DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	ARI	-1.1%	18	-0.4%	17	5-5	-2.2%	20	-2.6%	13	-1.5%	17
18	CIN	-2.3%	16	-3.1%	19	3-7	12.3%	8	14.7%	27	0.1%	15
19	BUF	-5.3%	17	-2.2%	18	5-5	-8.2%	23	3.4%	18	6.2%	4
20	KC	-9.1%	24	-7.5%	20	4-6	-19.7%	29	-14.0%	5	-3.3%	25
21	HOU	-9.4%	23	-12.3%	22	5-5	-0.8%	19	10.6%	23	2.0%	12
22	DET	-12.2%	22	-11.2%	21	6-4	-4.1%	22	1.5%	15	-6.5%	31
23	BAL	-12.6%	20	-14.4%	23	4-6	-22.4%	31	-13.8%	6	-3.9%	27
24	NO	-17.8%	21	-14.5%	24	4-6	3.7%	14	17.6%	31	-3.9%	26
25	MIA	-18.3%	26	-18.8%	27	0-10	-0.6%	18	15.4%	28	-2.2%	19
26	CHI	-18.5%	28	-17.5%	25	4-6	-20.9%	30	3.7%	20	6.2%	5
27	NYJ	-20.1%	29	-17.8%	26	2-8	-3.4%	21	23.1%	32	6.4%	3
28	ATL	-23.0%	25	-22.3%	28	3-7	-14.6%	26	6.0%	22	-2.4%	20
29	CAR	-24.5%	27	-24.3%	29	4-6	-11.5%	24	5.5%	21	-7.5%	32
30	STL	-34.2%	30	-32.0%	30	2-8	-19.0%	28	12.0%	25	-3.2%	24
31	OAK	-34.3%	31	-34.0%	31	2-8	-18.6%	27	13.2%	26	-2.5%	21
32	SF	-51.6%	32	-54.0%	32	2-8	-39.9%	32	16.3%	30	4.6%	8

ESTIMATED WINS [2] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
VARIANCE [3] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	NE	73.7%	10-0	71.6%	10.0	1	4.5%	9	-2.0%	18	2.8%	32
2	DAL	39.0%	9-1	36.3%	8.1	3	3.1%	10	-3.0%	20	8.5%	22
3	IND	34.9%	8-2	29.2%	8.4	2	6.0%	6	-12.6%	25	16.0%	9
4	GB	28.4%	9-1	32.4%	7.4	4	-0.4%	17	-14.5%	28	8.2%	23
5	PIT	25.4%	7-3	34.0%	6.3	7	-6.5%	27	4.0%	13	30.3%	1
6	TB	20.6%	6-4	18.9%	6.5	6	-4.7%	23	-23.7%	32	20.5%	6
7	SD	14.4%	5-5	6.2%	5.6	13	7.7%	3	-12.7%	26	27.9%	4
8	JAC	13.5%	7-3	12.1%	6.7	5	1.6%	16	-2.6%	19	7.2%	26
9	NYG	9.9%	7-3	11.1%	5.8	9	-0.5%	18	13.4%	7	5.8%	28
10	SEA	9.4%	6-4	21.0%	5.6	12	-11.4%	32	-17.9%	29	13.8%	12
11	WAS	7.5%	5-5	-5.5%	5.3	15	10.1%	2	9.9%	9	8.9%	20
12	PHI	5.9%	5-5	3.8%	5.8	8	2.5%	13	21.8%	2	15.9%	10
13	CLE	5.4%	6-4	3.2%	5.7	10	1.8%	14	-18.0%	30	8.7%	21
14	MIN	4.0%	4-6	4.0%	5.6	11	1.7%	15	-12.6%	24	20.1%	7
15	TEN	2.7%	6-4	4.6%	5.1	17	-2.2%	21	1.7%	16	16.0%	8
16	DEN	1.8%	5-5	0.4%	5.3	16	5.3%	7	-10.6%	23	28.4%	2
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	ARI	-1.1%	5-5	5.2%	4.5	20	-6.8%	28	-22.3%	31	28.1%	3
18	CIN	-2.3%	3-7	-0.5%	5.4	14	4.8%	8	-14.1%	27	3.0%	31
19	BUF	-5.3%	5-5	-16.2%	5.0	18	12.7%	1	4.8%	12	10.2%	17
20	KC	-9.1%	4-6	-10.2%	4.4	21	3.0%	12	-9.5%	22	11.2%	15
21	HOU	-9.4%	5-5	-6.4%	4.2	22	-5.6%	24	15.8%	6	13.6%	13
22	DET	-12.2%	6-4	-5.2%	4.9	19	-2.1%	20	21.0%	3	21.4%	5
23	BAL	-12.6%	4-6	-8.8%	3.7	25	-7.3%	30	27.9%	1	8.1%	24
24	NO	-17.8%	4-6	-14.8%	4.1	23	-5.6%	25	-8.1%	21	11.1%	16
25	MIA	-18.3%	0-10	-27.6%	3.3	29	6.6%	5	11.7%	8	5.0%	29
26	CHI	-18.5%	4-6	-17.2%	3.8	24	3.0%	11	6.7%	11	4.9%	30
27	NYJ	-20.1%	2-8	-24.3%	3.4	27	7.1%	4	18.7%	4	9.0%	19
28	ATL	-23.0%	3-7	-13.8%	3.3	28	-7.0%	29	2.4%	15	7.7%	25
29	CAR	-24.5%	4-6	-20.9%	3.4	26	-2.0%	19	2.6%	14	14.3%	11
30	STL	-34.2%	2-8	-30.0%	2.2	30	-7.7%	31	7.4%	10	12.9%	14
31	OAK	-34.3%	2-8	-27.2%	1.8	31	-3.6%	22	16.8%	5	9.9%	18
32	SF	-51.6%	2-8	-42.7%	1.3	32	-6.2%	26	0.4%	17	6.9%	27

Best and Worst DVOA Ever Watch

BEST TOTAL DVOA AFTER WEEK 11			BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA AFTER WEEK 11			WORST TOTAL DVOA AFTER WEEK 11			WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA AFTER WEEK 11
2007	NE	73.7%	2007	NE	51.3%	2005	SF	-55.9%	2005	SF	-41.3%
1999	STL	46.4%	2004	IND	45.0%	2000	CIN	-55.0%	2007	SF	-39.9%
1998	DEN	43.5%	2000	STL	38.7%	2007	SF	-51.6%	2002	HOU	-36.8%
2002	TB	42.1%	2000	IND	36.3%	2005	HOU	-49.5%	2004	MIA	-36.0%
1996	GB	40.5%	1998	DEN	34.3%	1999	CLE	-48.5%	1999	ARI	-35.9%
2000	TEN	40.0%	2005	SD	32.2%	2004	SF	-46.4%	1997	NO	-35.1%
2004	NE	40.0%	2005	IND	31.6%	1998	PHI	-44.3%	2000	CIN	-33.4%
2001	STL	39.4%	2004	KC	30.6%	2000	ARI	-44.0%	2006	OAK	-33.0%
2007	DAL	39.0%	2002	KC	30.4%	2002	HOU	-42.3%	1998	PHI	-32.6%
2004	PIT	38.7%	2007	DAL	30.3%	2000	CLE	-39.8%	2001	CAR	-31.4%

In Audibles [4], Ned Macey asked about the Pats and the biggest-ever gap between the top two teams in DVOA. Here is a table of the top two teams in DVOA after Week 11 each of the past dozen years. This year is the biggest gap by far, of course. And just in case you think this is a case of reduced parity in recent years, notice that the smallest gap between the top two teams after Week 11 was... last year.

YEAR	#1 TEAM	#1 DVOA	#2 TEAM	#2 DVOA	DIF
2007	NE	73.7%	DAL	39.0%	34.7%
1998	DEN	43.5%	DAL	24.9%	18.6%
2002	TB	42.1%	OAK	26.6%	15.5%
2003	KC	38.3%	TEN	24.0%	14.3%
1996	GB	40.5%	DEN	29.9%	10.6%
1999	STL	46.4%	JAC	38.6%	7.8%
2000	TEN	40.0%	MIA	34.1%	6.0%
2005	IND	36.8%	DEN	33.3%	3.5%
1997	SF	34.9%	DEN	32.1%	2.8%
2001	STL	39.4%	PHI	37.6%	1.8%
2004	NE	40.0%	PIT	38.7%	1.3%
2006	CHI	34.3%	SD	33.9%	0.4%

How dominant are the Patriots compared to every other team of the DVOA Era? Only six other teams ever had a DVOA of 40% or higher after ten games. Five of those teams won the Super Bowl, with the 2000 Titans as the only exception. No team had ever been at 50% DVOA after ten games. The Patriots aren't just over 50% -- the Patriots have not had a single game with DVOA below 50%.

Remember, the Patriots are not the first team in recent memory to spur talk of a perfect season. The 1998 Broncos and 2005 Colts both started 13-0 before losing. The Pats' DVOA is almost twice as high as the DVOA ratings of those two teams after 10 games. Here's our first week-to-week chart of the 2007 season, but this time we're comparing the three teams that have gone 10-0 during the DVOA Era. These are the DVOA ratings for each individual game during those two 13-0 starts, plus the ratings for each Patriots game. I've noted the scores of some of the best and worst games. The Broncos actually won two games during their streak despite a DVOA under 0%. I didn't have space to add the scores of the worst Pats games -- their lowest ratings of the season were Week 1 against the Jets and Week 5 against the Browns.

The Patriots have played ten straight games with a DVOA rating above 55%. The 1998 Broncos and 2005 Colts, also undefeated after ten games, had only seven games over 55% combined. Wow.

As for the 49ers, well, what can you say? They make me sad. My acquaintance with people in the front office outweighs my Patriots rooting interests.

Housekeeping: Everything should be updated, including individual and team stats pages, the premium database [5], the playoff odds [6], and the Loser League [7].

(Playoff odds are now updated.)

For (short) comments on every team, remember to look for DVOA on AOL, every Wednesday. (This will be linked on the FO Goes Mainstream [8] page.)