Week 14 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Well, first of all, we sincerely apologize for all the problems over the last two days. The server situation got so bad yesterday that we had to start our server migration a day early, which meant no DVOA ratings article because we didn't want it to suddenly disappear when the migration started. We still have some things that need fixing, but we'll be catching up with all our columns over the next couple days (Every Play Counts is going to run Thursday afternoon) and this should mean a major improvement to our traffic issues, with an even better, more permanent solution planned for the off-season. Let's hit the numbers then a couple comments...

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Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 14 weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].) OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

To save people some time, we request that you please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	NE	60.5%	1	57.8%	1	13-0	48.2%	1	-7.9%	7	4.4%	7
2	DAL	38.0%	2	39.4%	2	12-1	30.3%	2	-7.0%	8	0.8%	13
3	IND	36.0%	3	30.6%	3	11-2	29.2%	3	-13.1%	3	-6.2%	31
4	GB	27.3%	5	29.6%	4	11-2	21.8%	4	-1.9%	15	3.6%	10
5	PIT	24.1%	4	16.6%	9	9-4	4.8%	13	-21.3%	1	-2.1%	20
6	JAC	20.4%	8	23.4%	5	9-4	16.5%	5	-0.2%	16	3.7%	8
7	TB	17.5%	6	16.4%	10	8-5	12.2%	8	-7.9%	6	-2.6%	22
8	SD	16.4%	7	18.7%	6	8-5	4.2%	14	-6.3%	9	5.9%	3
9	SEA	16.2%	10	17.6%	8	9-4	3.7%	15	-10.0%	5	2.5%	12
10	MIN	14.7%	9	17.9%	7	7-6	6.3%	12	-4.8%	10	3.6%	9
11	CLE	7.3%	11	12.5%	11	8-5	12.5%	7	12.3%	27	7.1%	2
12	CIN	5.9%	12	7.3%	12	5-8	13.4%	6	8.2%	22	0.7%	14
13	PHI	3.4%	13	0.7%	16	5-8	9.4%	10	2.3%	17	-3.7%	28
14	DEN	2.4%	20	2.4%	14	6-7	11.5%	9	5.9%	21	-3.2%	24
15	WAS	0.4%	14	-1.3%	18	6-7	-4.0%	21	-3.7%	12	0.7%	15
16	NYG	0.1%	15	0.3%	17	9-4	-1.8%	19	-3.4%	13	-1.5%	17
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	BUF	0.0%	18	4.4%	13	7-6	-2.6%	20	2.5%	18	5.1%	6
18	TEN	-0.3%	16	-4.1%	19	7-6	-9.8%	23	-13.1%	2	-3.7%	27
19	NO	-6.4%	22	0.9%	15	6-7	9.0%	11	12.4%	28	-2.9%	23
20	BAL	-8.0%	17	-9.9%	21	4-9	-16.5%	27	-10.2%	4	-1.7%	18
21	CHI	-9.1%	21	-5.8%	20	5-8	-19.2%	28	-2.0%	14	8.1%	1
22	ARI	-9.4%	19	-11.0%	22	6-7	-1.8%	18	4.2%	20	-3.5%	25
23	HOU	-9.5%	24	-11.7%	23	6-7	0.0%	17	12.0%	26	2.5%	11
24	DET	-13.1%	26	-13.8%	24	6-7	1.6%	16	8.9%	23	-5.8%	30
25	NYJ	-19.2%	25	-13.9%	25	3-10	-8.8%	22	15.5%	31	5.1%	5
26	KC	-19.7%	23	-20.5%	26	4-9	-22.6%	31	-4.7%	11	-1.8%	19
27	ATL	-26.4%	28	-26.9%	28	3-10	-13.9%	26	12.6%	29	0.1%	16
28	OAK	-27.1%	27	-24.3%	27	4-9	-13.0%	25	10.5%	25	-3.6%	26
29	CAR	-29.7%	30	-32.0%	29	5-8	-20.3%	29	3.0%	19	-6.4%	32
30	MIA	-31.7%	29	-36.0%	31	0-13	-12.6%	24	16.7%	32	-2.5%	21
31	STL	-34.5%	31	-33.6%	30	3-10	-20.5%	30	9.6%	24	-4.4%	29
32	SF	-44.8%	32	-45.4%	32	3-10	-35.8%	32	14.9%	30	5.9%	4

ESTIMATED WINS [2] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
VARIANCE [3] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	NE	60.5%	13-0	58.7%	12.3	1	5.2%	3	-25.4%	27	12.0%	18
2	DAL	38.0%	12-1	39.6%	10.3	3	-0.1%	17	-13.0%	22	10.3%	22
3	IND	36.0%	11-2	35.8%	10.8	2	2.7%	12	-18.4%	24	17.6%	8
4	GB	27.3%	11-2	30.9%	9.5	4	-0.6%	19	-28.3%	28	10.0%	23
5	PIT	24.1%	9-4	23.7%	8.0	9	-0.5%	18	-11.0%	21	26.8%	2
6	JAC	20.4%	9-4	19.9%	9.3	5	1.2%	14	-6.2%	19	5.8%	32
7	TB	17.5%	8-5	19.7%	8.4	6	-4.5%	25	-50.5%	32	14.8%	13
8	SD	16.4%	8-5	10.3%	7.6	11	4.9%	6	-18.9%	25	22.1%	5
9	SEA	16.2%	9-4	24.2%	8.1	8	-9.6%	32	-32.0%	29	10.8%	20
10	MIN	14.7%	7-6	18.7%	8.2	7	-2.9%	23	-3.2%	18	20.4%	7
11	CLE	7.3%	8-5	7.5%	7.4	12	-1.2%	20	-19.5%	26	6.8%	29
12	CIN	5.9%	5-8	9.9%	7.7	10	2.4%	13	-34.6%	31	7.6%	28
13	PHI	3.4%	5-8	-3.2%	7.2	13	6.0%	2	15.8%	10	12.6%	17
14	DEN	2.4%	6-7	5.0%	6.5	16	0.6%	16	10.8%	14	37.7%	1
15	WAS	0.4%	6-7	-8.5%	6.4	18	4.8%	7	26.4%	6	9.2%	25
16	NYG	0.1%	9-4	1.3%	6.7	15	-1.4%	21	30.5%	3	6.6%	30
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	BUF	0.0%	7-6	-6.9%	6.9	14	7.3%	1	5.4%	15	12.6%	16
18	TEN	-0.3%	7-6	-3.1%	6.4	17	0.8%	15	-1.4%	17	16.5%	9
19	NO	-6.4%	6-7	-3.6%	6.1	19	-6.7%	31	-7.6%	20	13.9%	14
20	BAL	-8.0%	4-9	-15.8%	5.5	22	4.0%	10	4.3%	16	15.3%	11
21	CHI	-9.1%	5-8	-12.4%	5.6	21	3.3%	11	17.8%	9	7.7%	27
22	ARI	-9.4%	6-7	-2.9%	5.1	24	-6.2%	30	-33.6%	30	26.7%	3
23	HOU	-9.5%	6-7	-9.7%	5.4	23	-3.1%	24	29.4%	4	11.9%	19
24	DET	-13.1%	6-7	-11.0%	5.9	20	4.6%	8	12.0%	13	21.0%	6
25	NYJ	-19.2%	3-10	-21.2%	4.4	25	4.9%	5	20.3%	8	10.7%	21
26	KC	-19.7%	4-9	-24.3%	4.3	26	4.9%	4	-16.3%	23	26.0%	4
27	ATL	-26.4%	3-10	-20.3%	4.1	27	-5.2%	28	12.2%	12	6.1%	31
28	OAK	-27.1%	4-9	-23.1%	3.3	29	-2.3%	22	36.4%	1	14.8%	12
29	CAR	-29.7%	5-8	-24.4%	3.8	28	-4.5%	26	35.9%	2	15.6%	10
30	MIA	-31.7%	0-13	-37.8%	3.0	30	4.2%	9	29.2%	5	13.8%	15
31	STL	-34.5%	3-10	-29.7%	2.8	31	-4.9%	27	21.0%	7	9.8%	24
32	SF	-44.8%	3-10	-37.9%	2.4	32	-6.2%	29	15.4%	11	8.3%	26

Best and Worst DVOA Ever Watch

BEST TOTAL DVOA AFTER WEEK 14			BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA AFTER WEEK 14			WORST TOTAL DVOA AFTER WEEK 14			WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA AFTER WEEK 14
2007	NE	60.5%	2007	NE	48.2%	2005	SF	-63.8%	2005	SF	-45.4%
1999	STL	48.5%	2004	IND	45.1%	1999	CLE	-52.6%	1997	NO	-40.3%
2001	STL	44.5%	2002	KC	37.9%	2000	CLE	-46.4%	2002	HOU	-39.6%
2004	PIT	42.3%	1998	DEN	33.1%	2003	ARI	-45.1%	2007	SF	-35.8%
2004	NE	41.7%	2005	IND	32.7%	2000	CIN	-45.0%	2004	CHI	-35.0%
2005	IND	41.0%	2006	IND	31.8%	2007	SF	-44.8%	2000	CLE	-34.5%
1998	DEN	40.8%	2000	IND	31.3%	2004	SF	-44.7%	2006	OAK	-33.6%
2002	TB	40.8%	2007	DAL	30.3%	2000	ARI	-44.4%	2004	MIA	-32.8%
2004	IND	39.1%	2004	KC	29.8%	1998	PHI	-43.4%	1998	PHI	-32.6%
2007	DAL	38.0%	2007	IND	29.2%	2002	ARI	-43.4%	2001	CAR	-30.1%

How good are the Patriots? They beat one of the top five teams in the league by three touchdowns and their DVOA rating actually went down by one percentage point. OK, it isn't quite like that... The Patriots had a rating of 69.4% for this game; their overall dropped slightly because of changes in opponent adjustments. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, had a rating of 18.7% and barely saw their league-best defense drop despite giving up 34 points.

Meanwhile, while the undefeated Patriots are keeping up their high level of play, the winless Dolphins have completely dropped off a cliff. Three weeks ago, I wrote an article at ESPN.com [4] saying that the Dolphins would not finish 0-16. They simply were not playing like the worst team in football. Well, in the last two weeks, that has changed. In two weeks, Miami's DVOA rating has gone from -16.2% to -31.7%. To show just how horrible the Dolphins have been in the last two games, I put together a DVOA week-to-week graph:

For most of the season, Miami was just a garden-variety bad team with poor luck. Their last two games have been two of the three worst games of the season according to DVOA. The only game with a lower rating was also played in Week 14. If you look at which teams moved up and down significantly in the ratings, you may be able to figure out which game it was. Since very few people actually watched the game, it's probably a bit of a surprise.

Worst Single-Game DVOA 2007 (through Week 14)
Team	Opp.	Week	DVOA	Score
KC	DEN	14	-143.4%	41-7
MIA	BUF	14	-104.3%	38-17
MIA	NYJ	13	-101.7%	40-13
STL	TB	3	-98.3%	24-3
SF	CAR	13	-92.5%	31-14
DEN	SD	5	-87.4%	41-3
CAR	NO	12	-85.5%	31-6
SD	MIN	9	-84.8%	35-17
ARI	CAR	6	-81.5%	25-10
OAK	GB	14	-81.4%	38-7

Kansas City managed a single touchdown against a below-average defense. They went 1-for-13 on third-down conversions and gained 2.5 yards per offensive play, including 16 yards rushing on 17 carries. They fumbled three times and gave up five sacks, while Denver had just one of each.

On to the housekeeping... all the team stats pages and individual stats pages are now updated, as are the playoff odds [5]. New England now is listed with a 62.2 percent chance of finishing 16-0, while the Dolphins are still listed with less than a 25 percent chance of finishing 0-16. The premium database [6] and Loser League [7] will be updated later today; things are delayed a bit by the server nonsense. LOSER LEAGUE AND PREMIUM NOW UPDATED.

For (short) comments on every team, remember to look for DVOA on AOL, every Wednesday. (This will be linked on the FO Goes Mainstream [8] page.)