Week 16 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

OK, so the Patriots are the best team in the league again this week. Which team ranks second? For most of the season, the answer was either Indianapolis or Dallas. I think most of us would say Indianapolis right now. However, according to weighted DVOA -- the formula that gives less weight to games early in the season -- the second-best team in the NFL right now is Jacksonville.

Yes, the Jaguars are as hot as they look. They have a DVOA of 30% or higher in seven straight games. This week's victory over Oakland comes out with the second-highest single-game DVOA of the year, right behind Denver's blowout of Kansas City in Week 14 and just ahead of Minnesota's blowout of San Diego in Week 9. The Jaguars only have two games below 0% all year, and one of them -- their 13-7 win over Atlanta in Week 2 -- just dropped out of the weighted DVOA equation.

"Uh-oh," say Patriots fans. "Are we going to have to face this team? If the Chargers win this week, the Steelers and Jaguars have a rematch, and we probably have to face the winner of that game. Based on what we've seen in recent weeks, the Jaguars would have to be favored to beat Pittsburgh." That's okay, fellow Pats fans. The Colts don't get off easy either. The second-hottest team in the NFL is the team the Colts will probably host in their first playoff game: San Diego.

They aren't quite as hot as the Jaguars, but the Chargers have now moved up into third place in weighted DVOA, ahead of the Colts. The Chargers have a DVOA of 10% or higher in seven straight games. They have only three games below 0% all year, and one of them -- New England's emotional "Go suck on it, Spygate" game in Week 2 -- just dropped out of the weighted DVOA equation.

Home-field advantage and an extra week of rest still make New England and Indianapolis the clear favorites in the second-round AFC playoff games, but the Jaguars and Chargers are both very dangerous right now. (The Chargers have a subjective asterisk, of course, since many of us are expecting Norv Turner to do something stupid come playoff time. I don't think anyone expects that from Jack Del Rio.)

By the way, the Jaguars and Chargers will probably jump a bit in weighted DVOA again next week. Each team's worst loss of the year took place in Week 9, and next week Week 9 bumps down a significant step in the weighted DVOA equation (from 95 percent strength to 70 percent strength).

Remarkably, our playoff odds [1] equation still gives the Patriots just a 70 percent chance of finishing undefeated, even though the Giants (like the Cowboys, Colts, and a few other teams) have been given a "sit starters" penalty for Week 17. New England's weighted DVOA is no longer so huge that it mucks up the equation, but I still think there's something missing from the system, because their chances of winning this week have to be higher than that. Perhaps the "sit starters" penalty is not high enough... we'll have to work on it in the off-season.

* * * * *

Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 16 weeks of 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [2].) OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

To save people some time, we request that you please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	W-L	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	NE	54.3%	1	15-0	45.2%	1	41.8%	1	-8.9%	7	3.5%	7
2	IND	36.8%	2	13-2	28.0%	4	29.2%	2	-12.4%	2	-4.9%	30
3	DAL	29.3%	3	13-2	25.3%	5	22.9%	3	-6.4%	8	0.0%	15
4	JAC	29.2%	5	11-4	37.1%	2	20.2%	4	-5.4%	11	3.6%	5
5	SD	22.7%	7	10-5	30.4%	3	5.6%	13	-11.1%	5	6.0%	3
6	TB	20.2%	6	9-6	17.2%	6	8.3%	9	-12.4%	3	-0.5%	16
7	PIT	19.2%	8	10-5	12.9%	9	6.5%	12	-14.5%	1	-1.8%	19
8	GB	18.2%	4	12-3	15.1%	8	16.0%	5	0.1%	17	2.4%	11
9	SEA	16.5%	9	10-5	16.3%	7	4.3%	15	-9.4%	6	2.9%	8
10	PHI	9.0%	11	7-8	7.8%	12	10.3%	7	-3.1%	14	-4.5%	28
11	MIN	8.0%	10	8-7	12.2%	10	4.9%	14	-0.9%	16	2.2%	12
12	CLE	4.8%	12	9-6	11.8%	11	7.8%	10	8.7%	22	5.7%	4
13	TEN	4.1%	13	9-6	-2.2%	18	-6.2%	21	-12.3%	4	-2.0%	20
14	WAS	3.8%	14	8-7	4.8%	14	0.3%	17	-3.5%	13	0.1%	14
15	CIN	1.2%	15	6-9	1.1%	17	10.2%	8	9.0%	23	0.1%	13
16	NYG	-1.9%	18	10-5	-3.3%	19	-4.6%	20	-4.3%	12	-1.6%	18
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	W-L	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	NO	-3.1%	17	7-8	7.1%	13	12.7%	6	13.1%	31	-2.7%	23
18	DEN	-4.0%	16	6-9	-6.7%	21	6.6%	11	7.7%	21	-2.9%	25
19	BUF	-4.5%	19	7-8	2.3%	16	-6.9%	22	1.1%	19	3.5%	6
20	CHI	-6.0%	21	6-9	4.3%	15	-19.1%	31	-5.6%	10	7.5%	1
21	HOU	-6.1%	20	7-8	-5.3%	20	3.9%	16	12.7%	30	2.7%	10
22	BAL	-11.1%	22	4-11	-15.3%	23	-14.7%	26	-6.3%	9	-2.8%	24
23	ARI	-11.2%	23	7-8	-18.2%	24	-1.1%	18	7.6%	20	-2.6%	22
24	DET	-18.5%	24	7-8	-23.5%	25	-1.2%	19	12.5%	29	-4.8%	29
25	KC	-19.5%	25	4-11	-24.6%	27	-17.8%	29	-1.4%	15	-3.0%	26
26	NYJ	-20.4%	26	3-12	-13.0%	22	-11.6%	24	11.6%	27	2.8%	9
27	CAR	-24.0%	28	6-9	-24.3%	26	-17.8%	30	0.9%	18	-5.2%	31
28	ATL	-26.9%	29	3-12	-29.6%	30	-14.2%	25	11.3%	26	-1.3%	17
29	MIA	-28.8%	30	1-14	-31.2%	32	-10.0%	23	16.4%	32	-2.5%	21
30	OAK	-30.1%	27	4-11	-29.5%	29	-16.5%	27	9.3%	24	-4.3%	27
31	STL	-33.2%	31	3-12	-27.8%	28	-16.6%	28	10.9%	25	-5.6%	32
32	SF	-35.8%	32	5-10	-31.1%	31	-29.8%	32	12.1%	28	6.1%	2

ESTIMATED WINS [3] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
2007 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road and includes the final, as-yet-unplayed Week 17 opponent.
VARIANCE [4] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	2007 SCHEDULE	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	NE	54.3%	15-0	55.4%	13.6	1	0.4%	18	14.6%	16
2	IND	36.8%	13-2	35.7%	12.2	2	2.1%	12	15.6%	14
3	DAL	29.3%	13-2	33.5%	10.8	4	-2.1%	22	17.2%	11
4	JAC	29.2%	11-4	26.9%	11.3	3	1.2%	17	11.6%	25
5	SD	22.7%	10-5	18.9%	9.3	7	0.1%	19	23.2%	3
6	TB	20.2%	9-6	24.7%	9.7	6	-7.6%	30	21.2%	6
7	PIT	19.2%	10-5	20.7%	8.8	10	-3.0%	23	24.1%	2
8	GB	18.2%	12-3	24.7%	9.9	5	-5.0%	28	22.5%	5
9	SEA	16.5%	10-5	24.5%	9.2	8	-11.1%	32	10.5%	27
10	PHI	9.0%	7-8	1.0%	9.0	9	4.9%	4	16.8%	12
11	MIN	8.0%	8-7	12.2%	8.7	11	-4.1%	26	20.0%	8
12	CLE	4.8%	9-6	6.9%	8.3	12	-5.0%	29	6.3%	32
13	TEN	4.1%	9-6	0.8%	8.0	14	2.2%	11	16.4%	13
14	WAS	3.8%	8-7	-2.6%	7.5	17	5.2%	2	8.6%	30
15	CIN	1.2%	6-9	6.8%	8.1	13	-3.3%	24	8.8%	29
16	NYG	-1.9%	10-5	-2.4%	7.3	18	1.5%	15	7.4%	31
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	2007 SCHEDULE	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	NO	-3.1%	7-8	-3.8%	7.5	16	-3.6%	25	13.6%	19
18	DEN	-4.0%	6-9	-1.8%	6.7	21	1.7%	14	35.4%	1
19	BUF	-4.5%	7-8	-9.3%	7.7	15	5.6%	1	13.0%	21
20	CHI	-6.0%	6-9	-8.1%	6.8	20	2.4%	10	13.9%	18
21	HOU	-6.1%	7-8	-10.4%	6.8	19	3.2%	7	11.6%	23
22	BAL	-11.1%	4-11	-17.5%	6.0	23	2.9%	8	14.3%	17
23	ARI	-11.2%	7-8	-2.9%	5.8	24	-8.7%	31	20.8%	7
24	DET	-18.5%	7-8	-15.5%	6.1	22	3.7%	6	18.3%	10
25	KC	-19.5%	4-11	-22.8%	4.9	26	1.5%	16	23.1%	4
26	NYJ	-20.4%	3-12	-23.9%	4.8	27	5.1%	3	10.6%	26
27	CAR	-24.0%	6-9	-24.7%	5.1	25	1.8%	13	15.0%	15
28	ATL	-26.9%	3-12	-25.3%	4.7	28	-0.5%	20	11.6%	24
29	MIA	-28.8%	1-14	-35.9%	3.8	30	4.8%	5	13.4%	20
30	OAK	-30.1%	4-11	-29.2%	3.7	31	2.5%	9	18.6%	9
31	STL	-33.2%	3-12	-30.4%	3.5	32	-2.1%	21	9.4%	28
32	SF	-35.8%	5-10	-31.1%	3.9	29	-4.3%	27	11.8%	22

Best and Worst DVOA Ever Watch

BEST TOTAL DVOA AFTER WEEK 16			BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA AFTER WEEK 16			WORST TOTAL DVOA AFTER WEEK 16			WORST OFFENSIVE DVOA AFTER WEEK 16
2007	NE	54.3%	2004	IND	42.0%	2005	SF	-55.6%	2005	SF	-39.4%
1999	STL	46.3%	2007	NE	41.8%	2004	SF	-49.7%	2002	HOU	-38.6%
2001	STL	38.5%	2002	KC	35.9%	2000	CLE	-44.8%	2004	CHI	-36.4%
1996	GB	38.3%	2006	IND	33.0%	2000	ARI	-43.5%	1997	NO	-34.9%
2004	IND	37.6%	2000	STL	31.6%	2000	CIN	-42.6%	2006	OAK	-34.4%
2004	NE	37.6%	2000	IND	31.4%	1999	CLE	-42.3%	1999	ARI	-33.2%
2004	PIT	37.3%	2004	KC	30.0%	2003	ARI	-41.2%	2000	CLE	-32.7%
2007	IND	36.8%	2007	IND	29.2%	2002	ARI	-40.0%	2007	SF	-29.8%
2005	IND	36.2%	2005	IND	28.8%	2002	HOU	-39.6%	1996	NYG	-29.4%
2006	SD	33.0%	2001	STL	27.6%	1998	PHI	-36.4%	1999	PHI	-29.1%

Notice anything about those lists above? Yes, there is no longer a team from 2007 on the "worst total DVOA" list. Two wins have taken the 2007 49ers far away from the historical suckitude of the 2005 49ers. Originally, I was going to remove the two "worst" lists altogether, but I figured that if we've run with them so far, we might as well see them through to the end.

The Patriots' DVOA peaked at 73.7% after Week 11 and has dropped every week since, but it still is far and away the best DVOA rating ever recorded. That's the way things will end up unless the Giants somehow pull out not just a win, but a blowout victory. Not bloody likely. Only two teams since 1996 ended the season with a DVOA rating above 40%: the Rams in 1999 and the Packers in 1996.

You'll notice that we haven't been running a list of where this year's teams stand among the best defensive DVOA ratings ever. We ran a list once at midseason, when the Tennessee Titans were at their peak, but the injury to Albert Haynesworth quickly brought the Titans back to the pack. The Steelers have now been in first place on defense for six weeks, even though they have progressively gotten worse since they peaked at -23.7% after Week 12. In fact, if Pittsburgh were to finish next week with the same DVOA they have now, they would be the worst defense to ever lead the league in DVOA -- and by a huge margin.

It looks like 2007 will be the first season where no defense finishes better than -20%, but it goes beyond that. At least three defenses were better than the 2007 Pittsburgh Steelers in every single season for which we have DVOA except for 2002, when the Carolina Panthers finished third at -13.8%. In four different seasons -- 1997, 1999, 2000, and 2001 -- the current Steelers would not even have ranked in the top five for defense! If the season ended today, Pittsburgh would rank as the 49th-best defense of the DVOA era.

The parity of defenses in 2007 works the other way too, although it isn't quite as strong. Miami would only have finished with the worst defensive DVOA in one other year, 1997. In that year, the last-place defense was Cincinnati at 15.1%. The standard deviation of defensive DVOA in 1997 was 8.9%. In 2007, the standard deviation of defensive DVOA is 9.5%. In every other season, it was 10.5% or higher. The season with the highest standard deviation on defense is, of course, 2000.

In case you are curious... the standard deviation of offense right now is 15.7%. The only seasons with higher standard deviations on offense were 2004 and 2000, with 2005 and this year tied for third. The season with the least amount of standard deviation on offense was 1996.

One last note: I know some people are wondering where this week's Green Bay punt-block-o-rama falls on the list of the worst special teams games ever. The answer is that it doesn't make the list. Mason Crosby's strong kickoffs balance out below-average kickoff returns, so the Packers were really only exceedingly bad in one area.

On to the housekeeping... All the team stats pages and individual stats pages are now updated, as are the playoff odds [1]. Loser League results [5] and the DVOA Premium database [6] will be updated Wednesday due to the holiday. (PREMIUM AND LOSER LEAGUE NOW UPDATED.)

For (short) comments on every team, remember to look for DVOA on AOL, every Wednesday. (This will be linked on the FO Goes Mainstream [7] page.)

Final note for Boston/Providence-area readers or anyone who wants to listen online: I will be guest co-host on the "Dale and Holley Show" this Wednesday from 10am to 2pm EST. Unlike the last time I did four straight hours on the radio, I will not be backselling any Stone Temple Pilots records.