Final 2007 FEI Ratings

by Brian Fremeau

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) principles and methodology can be found here [1]. Like DVOA, FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. Unlike DVOA, it is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. Like DVOA, it represents a team's efficiency value over average.

Only games between FBS (Division 1-A) teams are considered. The Week 14 Ratings represent the results of games played through Monday, January 7 (712 games).

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI	Last Wk	GE	GE Rank
1	LSU	(12-2)	0.285	1	0.236	5
2	USC	(11-2)	0.262	2	0.238	4
3	Oregon	(9-4)	0.260	6	0.173	12
4	West Virginia	(11-2)	0.257	4	0.283	1
5	Florida	(8-4)	0.235	5	0.180	10
6	Georgia	(10-2)	0.227	9	0.142	16
7	Oklahoma	(11-3)	0.212	8	0.249	3
8	Ohio State	(10-2)	0.204	3	0.232	6
9	Missouri	(11-2)	0.191	15	0.175	11
10	South Florida	(8-4)	0.190	7	0.120	19
11	Clemson	(8-4)	0.183	12	0.186	9
12	Virginia Tech	(10-3)	0.182	10	0.116	21
Rank	Team	W-L	FEI	Last Wk	GE	GE Rank
13	Auburn	(8-4)	0.180	17	0.084	33
14	BYU	(10-2)	0.177	16	0.194	8
15	Cincinnati	(9-3)	0.177	11	0.165	13
16	Arizona State	(10-3)	0.170	13	0.104	28
17	Tennessee	(10-4)	0.164	20	0.070	37
18	Oregon State	(8-4)	0.157	21	0.010	53
19	Kansas	(11-1)	0.151	25	0.265	2
20	Boston College	(10-3)	0.151	19	0.107	25
21	Arkansas	(7-5)	0.150	18	0.109	23
22	Michigan	(9-3)	0.147	22	0.097	30
23	UCLA	(6-7)	0.143	23	-0.002	58
24	California	(7-6)	0.139	24	0.041	43
25	Kentucky	(7-5)	0.132	26	0.035	46

Offensive Efficiency (OE) represents the raw per-possession scoring rate for each team, and Defensive Efficiency (DE) represents that of its opponents. Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADE) modifies OE and DE for field position and opponent. Unlike FEI, AOE and ADE recorded against stronger opponents in wins or against weaker opponents in losses do not receive additional weight. Field Position Advantage (FPA) represents the difference between a team's average offensive field position and its opponents'.

FEI Rank	Team	W-L	OE	OE Rank	AOE	AOE Rank	DE	DE Rank	ADE	ADE Rank	FPA
1	LSU	(12-2)	0.403	12	0.444	6	0.192	9	0.188	6	3.6
2	USC	(11-2)	0.366	22	0.370	25	0.148	2	0.152	2	4.9
3	Oregon	(9-4)	0.380	16	0.444	7	0.223	22	0.228	24	3.6
4	West Virginia	(11-2)	0.437	5	0.455	5	0.208	14	0.206	14	4.9
5	Florida	(8-4)	0.526	1	0.605	1	0.343	88	0.322	76	3.8
6	Georgia	(10-2)	0.377	17	0.416	11	0.240	27	0.208	16	2.1
7	Oklahoma	(11-3)	0.447	4	0.433	10	0.232	24	0.202	10	2.2
8	Ohio State	(10-2)	0.352	29	0.338	37	0.126	1	0.139	1	7.8
9	Missouri	(11-2)	0.414	10	0.478	2	0.275	45	0.238	29	-1.5
10	South Florida	(8-4)	0.318	47	0.345	36	0.220	21	0.203	12	3.3
11	Clemson	(8-4)	0.361	23	0.391	17	0.178	4	0.203	11	5.4
12	Virginia Tech	(10-3)	0.267	75	0.300	54	0.159	3	0.164	3	3.3
FEI Rank	Team	W-L	OE	OE Rank	AOE	AOE Rank	DE	DE Rank	ADE	ADE Rank	FPA
13	Auburn	(8-4)	0.278	68	0.320	43	0.219	17	0.186	5	-0.1
14	BYU	(10-2)	0.352	30	0.399	14	0.208	12	0.238	30	-1.6
15	Cincinnati	(9-3)	0.345	32	0.345	34	0.201	11	0.214	18	6.3
16	Arizona State	(10-3)	0.316	48	0.352	31	0.237	26	0.222	21	0.2
17	Tennessee	(10-4)	0.359	26	0.395	15	0.280	48	0.255	38	3.6
18	Oregon State	(8-4)	0.227	96	0.260	78	0.219	18	0.199	9	1.0
19	Kansas	(11-1)	0.423	8	0.374	23	0.181	5	0.184	4	4.0
20	Boston College	(10-3)	0.293	61	0.358	28	0.183	7	0.209	17	-0.6
21	Arkansas	(7-5)	0.360	24	0.399	13	0.254	31	0.233	26	1.9
22	Michigan	(9-3)	0.309	52	0.298	56	0.220	19	0.192	7	3.7
23	UCLA	(6-7)	0.188	115	0.228	95	0.208	13	0.192	8	1.0
24	California	(7-6)	0.328	41	0.381	21	0.300	59	0.280	50	-1.6
25	Kentucky	(7-5)	0.366	21	0.412	12	0.317	72	0.277	45	2.2

Click here [2] for FEI rankings of all 119 teams. Click here [3] for Offensive/Defensive Efficiency rankings for all 119 teams.

National Champions

LSU claimed the BCS championship in dominating fashion last week, playing exactly like an undisputed No. 1 team should play. And yet, this championship will likely forever be remembered as one of the most disputed in history, with a handful of other strong teams playing some of their best football in their own respective finales, each believing they are every bit as good as the team holding the coveted crystal football in Louisiana. They are wrong.

The LSU Tigers defeated two FEI Top-10 teams, the same number defeated by USC, West Virginia, Georgia, Missouri and Kansas combined. LSU took down a total of five FEI Top-20 teams, two better than anyone else. (Oregon and UCLA each earned three such victories.) On ten occasions this season, an FEI Top-20 team suffered a dominating loss; two of these (Ohio State and Virginia Tech) were administered by LSU. The Tigers defeated eight FEI Top-40 teams; only two other schools in college football even played that many. They did lose twice, however, to good but not great Arkansas and Kentucky teams. While those triple-overtime losses shouldn't actually be considered ties, statistically they are about as close as it gets.

In a season in which no team posted an unblemished resume, LSU should get the credit they deserve. But since two-loss national championships are extremely rare (and will be extremely rare as long as there is no college football playoff) the Tigers must also consider themselves fortunate that no other teams were able to best their season-long effort. In the FEI era (2003-present), LSU posted only the ninth best FEI rating overall, and only the third best rating among two-loss teams.

Top 10 FEI Ratings, 2003-2007
Rank	Year	Team	REC	FEI	Season Rank
1	2004	USC	(13-0)	0.351	1
2	2005	Texas	(13-0)	0.349	1
3	2006	Florida	(12-1)	0.328	1
4	2005	USC	(12-1)	0.325	2
5	2006	USC	(11-2)	0.315	2
6	2004	Auburn	(12-0)	0.306	2
7	2003	LSU	(12-1)	0.295	1
8	2005	Ohio State	(10-2)	0.287	3
9	2007	LSU	(12-2)	0.285	1
10	2005	Penn State	(11-1)	0.283	4

The BCS is the perfect system for everyone when a clear-cut No. 1 and No. 2 play for the title. In the last five years, though, only the 2005 Texas Longhorns earned the BCS title and FEI No. 1 distinction by defeating the second best team in the land. Of course, before the BCS ever existed, the opportunity for No. 1 and No. 2 to meet was even more rare. And each of the last five BCS champions, even if they didn't face the nation's second-best team, did face a formidable foe in the championship game, proving they were No. 1 in both that final game and throughout the season according to FEI. But this metric should be only part of the conversation.

If decades of college football have taught us anything, it is that everything is debatable, perhaps especially the merits of its champions. A college football playoff would certainly afford more opportunities to more teams to prove they are the best, but it would not necessarily create more No. 1 versus No. 2 championship games. Like other blemished champions before them, LSU proved both that they were the best team in the country and that the best can be beaten, one of the enduring hallmarks of college football.

The Best of the Rest

USC finishes No. 2 in the FEI rankings for the fourth time in five years, a run that has both dominated the college football landscape and left Trojan fans disappointed that it hasn't produced more hardware. Oregon and West Virginia both finished the season with big bowl victories, and were it not for injuries to their star quarterbacks, may have contended for more, since each played frequently this season like the nation's best team. Florida remains at No. 5; all four of their losses came against FEI Top-25 teams and were decided late in the fourth quarter.

As in several other instances throughout the FEI final ratings, the Gators rank just above one of the teams that defeated them: Georgia. Why? This system is based on Game Efficiency, and playing several losses close against good teams simply rates more efficiently over the course of the season than losing miserably does (as Georgia did against Tennessee), especially when that miserable loss isn't countered by several outstanding victories. Had the Bulldogs been pitted against a more capable opponent than Hawaii in their bowl game, they may have been able to prove something more -- or they may have been run out of the building like Oklahoma.

And then there's South Florida, the only FEI Top-20 team unranked in the AP poll. The Bulls were FEI darlings all season and for that, the system was frequently and heavily criticized. Of the ten four-loss teams that are ranked in the AP final poll, though, only Oregon defeated more FEI Top-20 teams (three) than USF did. There has been plenty of grumbling about 8-4 Florida topping 8-4 Auburn in the final AP poll rankings, despite the fact that the Tigers won head-to-head against the Gators. Nary a peep has been heard about 8-4 South Florida being left out of the rankings entirely. FEI hasn't forgotten their head-to-head wins over Auburn and West Virginia and gives them their due.

The Games

The 2007 season will be remembered for dozens of heart-stopping thrill rides, half of which seemed to be turned in by LSU alone. With six dramatic overtime periods in two losses and four fourth-quarter comebacks, it would be difficult to keep several Tiger games out of a list of the best of the year. Teams in the final FEI Top 25 played 25 games amongst themselves that were decided by a single possession this season, and they also played in 53 single-score games against non-Top 25 teams, winning 37 of them.

Then there were the dominant performances, several of which were turned in against very good teams. For the following table, I calculated a Calibrated Adjusted Game Efficiency for every team's individual game performances. As explained in the Week 13 FEI ratings article [4], AGE data modifies raw Game Efficiency data to adjust for the strength of the opponent and relevance of the data point to an individual team. FEI ratings are calculated from multiple-order AGE data. The Calibrated AGE data removes the relevance adjustment in order to directly compare performances of different teams.

Most Dominant Performances of 2007
Rank	Winning Team	Opponent	Opp. FEI	Competitive Final Score	Garbage Final Score	Calibrated AGE
1	Tennessee	Georgia	6	35-7	35-14	0.873
2	Oregon	South Florida	10	49-14	56-21	0.774
3	LSU	Virginia Tech	12	34-7	48-7	0.771
4	USC	Arizona State	16	44-17	44-24	0.727
5	Oregon	Michigan	22	39-7	39-7	0.713
6	Florida	Tennessee	17	49-20	59-20	0.685
7	LSU	Ohio State	8	38-17	38-24	0.684
8	Georgia	Auburn	13	45-20	45-20	0.679
9	Alabama	Tennessee	17	41-17	41-17	0.652
10	Cincinnati	Oregon State	18	34-3	34-3	0.651

Tennessee turned in the best single game of the season by this measure, but were also walloped themselves twice. LSU and Oregon each dominated two FEI Top-25 teams, leading the SEC and Pac-10 to the nine most dominant performances of the year. The most forgotten victory on this list has to be Cincinnati's September 6 shellacking of Oregon State, a game that didn't make any headlines in the wake of the LSU-VaTech and Oregon-Michigan beatdowns from the same weekend, but one that contributed mightily to the Big East's resume this season.

Of course, this was also the year of the upset, from Appalachian State's shocker in the Big House all the way through Michigan's takedown of Florida on January 1. At least five different teams suffered an earth-shattering loss this year that not only made a run at "biggest upset ever" recognition, but shook up the ratings world every week. The following table ranks the biggest upsets of the year according to the difference in FEI rating of the two teams involved. Only FBS results are included, so the Wolverines (and the other eight victims of FCS upsets) are off the hook.

Biggest Upsets of 2007
Rank	Winning Team	FEI	Opponent	Opp FEI	Delta FEI	Competitive Final Score	Garbage Final Score
1	Louisiana Monroe	94	Alabama	27	-0.258	21-14	21-14
2	Syracuse	110	Louisville	46	-0.247	38-35	38-35
3	Stanford	52	USC	2	-0.231	24-23	24-23
4	UNLV	91	Utah	36	-0.217	20-0	27-0
5	Notre Dame	74	UCLA	23	-0.210	20-6	20-6
6	Pittsburgh	49	West Virginia	4	-0.205	13-7	13-9
7	Wyoming	83	Virginia	31	-0.194	20-3	23-3
8	Colorado	54	Oklahoma	7	-0.183	27-24	27-24
9	Nebraska	82	Wake Forest	34	-0.181	20-17	20-17
10	Kansas State	71	Texas	26	-0.181	41-21	41-21

Only the USC, West Virginia and Oklahoma upsets registered significantly with most fans this season, which is not surprising, since each involved a thwarting of the championship aspirations of a once and future Top-10 team at the hands of an also-ran. Some may not consider the others on this list as worthy of the same recognition; that is understandable, though incorrect. Regardless of what the betting public may have thought would happen in the games or whether the results altered the course of the BCS, every upset -- and non-upset, for that matter -- helped shape the course of a season like no other in college football.

FEI Postscript

The Fremeau Efficiency Index will once again be examined and adjusted in the off-season, with more thorough analysis of more data to provide more effective ratings and unit splits. The adjusted offense and defense efficiency calculations will be a particular focus, along with other metrics. Suggestions and questions related to college football stats here at FO are welcomed here in the comments section or by e-mailing brian-at-footballoutsiders-dot-com.