2007 Football Outsiders Awards Part I

comments by Doug Farrar

This is our fifth year of doing the Football Outsiders awards. Every year we get a great mix of the expected and the unexpected, and this year is no exception. Once again, I would like to thank everyone who voted on the awards. Today, we'll look at the on-field voting, and next week we'll look at the questions about broadcasters and commercials and so forth.

You will find links to each of the previous FO Awards articles on this page [1].

Who is your choice as Offensive MVP for 2007? (Last year's winner: LaDainian Tomlinson)

59.5% Tom Brady 22.6% Randy Moss 8.8% Brian Westbrook 4.1% Brett Favre	2.1% David Garrard 1.8% Peyton Manning 0.5% Tony Romo 0.5% Terrell Owens

Late-season and postseason struggles aside, Brady's 2007 was an absolute wonder. A DPAR of 200.2 for a quarterback is so beyond the pale, it's almost impossible to get one's head around how impressive it is. Let's try this: Peyton Manning put up DPAR seasons of over 170 in 2004 (170.1 in his 49-touchdown season [2]) and 2006 (175.0 in his Super Bowl season [3]). In DPAR terms, Brady's 2007 season was almost a full 2007 Todd Collins season [4](29.0) above Peyton Manning's 2006 season. That's just ridiculous.

Who is your choice as Defensive MVP for 2007? (Last year's winner: Jason Taylor)

41.6% Albert Haynesworth 25.2% Bob Sanders 7.4% Pat Williams 5.9% Jared Allen 5.0% Osi Umenyiora	4.2% DeMarcus Ware 3.4% James Harrison 3.2% Nnamdi Asomugha 2.2% Asante Samuel 2.0% Trent Cole

Neither 2006 MVP made the 2007 lists, though both Tomlinson and Taylor had good seasons. Haynesworth, like fellow elite tackles Marcus Tubbs and Tommie Harris, has a greatness that is almost measured more by how his defense does in his absence. The Titans lost all three contests Haynesworth missed with a hamstring injury and gave up an average of 160 rushing yards, having allowed 95.5 per game overall. Nice contract year! Sanders, of course, already has his well-deserved payday. Allen, Samuel and Asomugha are also in line for big bucks.

(Note: This Seahawks observer was looking for the Lofa Tatupu radio button that wasn't there).

(Ed. note: When I couldn't decide between listing Tatupu or Patrick Kerney, I decided to list Asomugha instead. I didn't want to list two teammates in the defensive award, figuring it would split the votes more than it would in the offensive award. -- Aaron)

Who is your choice as NFL Rookie of the Year for 2007? (Last year's winner: Marques Colston)

52.2% Joe Thomas 34.9% Adrian Peterson 9.0% Patrick Willis 1.5% Tony Ugoh 2.5% (four other candidates)

After reviewing Cleveland's offensive line in this article [5], Thomas' value became very clear. The Wisconsin grad was part of a perfect storm -- the acquisition of Eric Steinbach gave him one of the NFL's best guards to fire out with, Derek Anderson's ascent gave the Cleveland line the benefit of a quarterback with a release about 50 times quicker than Charlie Frye's, and Thomas' own superior work ethic and technique allowed him the best possible college-to-pro transition. No doubt that Peterson was the NFL's highlight reel champ in 2007, but who would you rather have if you were building a team?

Who was the best offensive lineman of 2007? (open question, two votes per ballot, top 12 listed) (Last year's winner: Marcus McNeill)

21.2% Joe Thomas (LT, CLE) 16.7% Logan Mankins (LG, NE) 12.2% Matt Light (LT, NE) 9.0% Steve Hutchinson (LG, MIN) 7.1% Jason Peters (LT, BUF) 4.9% Chris Snee (RG, NYG)	4.1% Jeff Saturday (C, IND) 2.5% Flozell Adams (LT, DAL) 2.3% Walter Jones (LT, SEA) 2.1% Dan Koppen (C, NE) 1.6% Tony Ugoh (LT, IND) 1.5% Mark Tauscher (RT, GB)

Little surprise here. McNeill struggled in his sophomore campaign, though linemate Kris Dielman went to the Pro Bowl. Thomas was followed by two Patriots whose reputations took a hit in the Super Bowl at the hands of New York's dominant defensive line, and Adrian Peterson's main roadgrader in Hutchinson. Other candidates: "Anyone not on the Steelers", someone named "DeMarcur Ware" (who apparently plays both ways), and "NFL refs who didn't call holding in 2007".

Who is your choice for NFL Coach of the Year in 2007? (Last year's winner: Lovie Smith)

50.6% Bill Belichick 19.2% Mike McCarthy 10.4% Romeo Crennel 8.4% Jack Del Rio	6.2% Jeff Fisher 2.7% Tony Dungy 1.8% Tom Coughlin 0.7% Wade Phillips

Oh, goody. Let's just say this: Congratulations to McCarthy, Crennel, Coughlin and Del Rio for making this list and surprising a lot of people. It's difficult to know what to say about Belichick at this point with so much still unknown, except that we're pretty sure he's never injected anything into Roger Clemens' butt.

Who is your choice for the Keep Choppin' Wood Award for 2007 (player who most hurt his team)? (Last year's winner: Ben Roethlisberger)

46.8% Michael Vick 27.8% Jason David 18.5% Shaun Alexander 3.7% Warren Sapp 2.0% Boone Stutz 1.3% Darrell Jackson

Boone Stutz: the best-known unemployed long snapper in the biz.

Who is your choice for the Keep Choppin' Game Film Award for the worst coach of 2007? (Last year's winner: Art Shell)

66.4% Bobby Petrino 13.5% Brian Billick 9.3% Cam Cameron 5.5% Mike Nolan 4.3% Scott Linehan 1.0% John Fox

Not one film-chopper from 2006 made it this year; one of them won the Super Bowl. This time, "Sooey!" trumps "Ookie" in Falcon-destroying responsibility, which is just about right. Bashing Billick is tough, since his team went 13-3 in 2006, and lost three 2007 games in agonizing fashion -- the Rex Ryan time-out game against the Patriots, the crossbar game against the Browns, and the 64-yard Greg Camarillo overtime touchdown reception that kept the Dolphins from a winless season. Billick having been fired, the Ravens were obviously seeking KCGF continuity when they hired Cameron to be their new offensive coordinator.

Who is your choice for the Bill Arnsparger Award for Coordinator of the Year? (Last year's winner: Rob Ryan)

19.3% Steve Spagnuolo, NYG defense 18.3% Josh McDaniels, NE offense 18.3% Jim Schwartz, TEN defense 12.7% Rob Chudzinski, CLE offense 7.8% Jason Garrett, DAL offense	6.9% Dirk Koetter, JAC offense 6.3% Ron Meeks, IND defense 5.1% Monte Kiffin, TB defense 3.6% John Marshall, SEA defense 1.2% Dick LeBeau, PIT defense

The only assistant to make our list of nominees in both 2006 and 2007 was McDaniels, who just snuck in last year with 0.6 percent of the vote.

Who is your choice for the Art Rooney Jr. Award for Executive(s) of the Year? (Last year's winner: Mickey Loomis)

57.2% Scott Pioli/Bill Belichick, NE 14.3% Phil Savage, CLE 11.6% Ted Thompson, GB	7.6% Jerry Reese, NYG 4.7% Bill Polian, IND 4.6% A.J. Smith, SD

Hard to argue with the moves they made. The challenge comes now, with on- and off-field concerns. Savage was rewarded for his commitment to get his offensive line right. Thompson was vindicated after a rough rebuilding time. Reese and his scouting department were especially savvy with their lower-round picks

The most overrated offensive player in the NFL is: (open question, top 12 listed) (Last year's winner: Terrell Owens)

9.7% Tony Romo 9.3% Shaun Alexander 8.7% Reggie Bush 6.5% Brett Favre 6.3% Willie Parker 5.5% Tom Brady	5.3% Vince Young 4.6% Wes Welker 4.2% Jeremy Shockey 3.2% Terrell Owens 3.0% Chad Johnson 2.2% LaDainian Tomlinson

Well, he did finish sixth in DPAR for quarterbacks [4]and set single-season franchise records for passing yards, completions and touchdown passes. Perhaps it's less that he's overrated and more that we're sick of the Cabo Wabo stuff, and all the other ancillary stories. As for Alexander, don't you have to be rated to be overrated?

The most overrated defensive player in the NFL is: (open question, top 12 listed) (Last year's winner: Ray Lewis)

19.4% Ray Lewis 19.2% Roy Williams 8.3% Al Harris 5.8% Shawne Merriman 4.1% Brian Urlacher 4.1% Rodney Harrison	3.7% DeAngelo Hall 3.3% Champ Bailey 2.7% Michael Strahan 2.7% Tedy Bruschi 2.5% Bob Sanders 2.5% Dwight Freeney

That's four straight for Sir Lord Baltimore, though Commander Horsecollar is closing fast. Watch your back, Ray! The votes for Al Harris may be confusing "overrated" with "having an off-year," although I guess we won't know for sure until we see if there is a second off-year.

The most underrated offensive player in the NFL is: (open question, top 12 listed) (Last year's winner: Lorenzo Neal)

9.9% Brian Westbrook 7.0% Kevin Faulk 6.1% Bobby Engram 4.9% Andre Johnson 4.5% David Garrard 4.0% Joe Thomas	2.6% Marion Barber 2.3% Fred Taylor 2.1% Lawrence Vickers 1.9% Wes Welker 1.6% Ronnie Brown 1.6% Marques Colston

Westbrook's best season yet -- and while his underrated status is difficult to argue, it's amazing how every running back in the draft that has caught more than 50 passes in his career is referred to as a "Westbrook type".

The most underrated defensive player in the NFL is:

Hey, remember last year when we screwed up "underrated defensive player?" Guess what -- we forgot to fix what screwed it up last year. Whoops. Once again, all the votes in this category were lost somewhere in the series of tubes that make up the Interwebs.

We swear we've fixed this for future years. Really. the meantime, an informal poll of FO writers put Falcons linebacker Michael Boley on top, followed by various votes for Aaron Smith, Derrick Johnson, Barrett Ruud, Leroy Hill, Rob Meier, Akin Ayodele, Roderick Hood, Nnamdi Asomugha, Kirk Morrison, and Fakhir Brown.

The most overrated special teams player in the NFL is: (open question, top 10 listed) (Last year's winner: Dante Hall)

59.2% Adam Vinatieri 10.9% Devin Hester 7.5% Dante Hall 2.9% Larry Izzo 1.7% Nick Folk	1.5% Jeff Feagles 1.5% Ted Ginn 1.5% Neil Rackers 1.2% Nate Kaeding 1.0% Chris Hanson

Doink! Note to various voters: RoboPunter is neither over- nor under-rated. RoboPunter simply is.

The most underrated special teams player in the NFL is: (open question, top 10 listed) (Last year's winner: Stephen Gostkowski)

9.7% Kelley Washington (coverage, NE) 9.1% Stephen Gostkowski (K, NE) 4.9% Josh Brown (K, SEA) 4.9% Mike Scifres (P, SD) 3.2% Leon Washington (returns, NYJ)	2.9% Mason Crosby (K, GB) 2.3% Nate Burleson (returns, SEA) 2.3% Brian Moorman (P, BUF) 2.3% Darren Sproles (returns, SD) 2.3% David Tyree (coverage, NYG)

Remember, players who made this season's Pro Bowl did not qualify for this category. On the same day that Washington officially took this award, it was announced that the Patriots would not be picking up [6]his $4 million option bonus. We'll be selling "Free Kelley Washington" t-shirts in the lobby.

Player most likely to breakout in 2008 (open question, top 12 listed): (Last year's winner: Matt Leinart)

4.8% Jay Cutler 4.6% Calvin Johnson 4.4% Jerious Norwood 3.7% Anthony Gonzalez 3.4% Michael Turner 3.0% Matt Leinart	2.8% Ahmad Bradshaw 2.8% D.J. Hackett 2.8% Brady Quinn 2.8% Sidney Rice 2.5% Santonio Holmes 2.5% Vincent Jackson

We've never had quite so many different players listed in this category, with nobody getting more than five percent of the vote. We're starting to wonder if Hackett isn't the individual version of the Arizona Cardinals, that eternal breakout pick that never quite happens. Matt Leinart may end up being the individual version of the Arizona Cardinals who actually plays for the Arizona Cardinals. We got a vote for "Steve Smith (Carolina)" from somebody who seems to be confusing "breakout" with "rebound," and one vote for Eli Manning, who apparently didn't break out last season.

Player most likely to significantly decline in 2008 (open question, top 10 listed): (Last year's winner: Larry Johnson)

15.5% Brett Favre 10.9% Tom Brady 9.8% Randy Moss 7.2% LaDainian Tomlinson 6.3% Willie Parker	4.8% Derek Anderson 4.1% Jamal Lewis 3.3% Terrell Owens 2.6% Marvin Harrison 2.4% Fred Taylor

Just so long as one of the declining numbers is "Number of consecutive days this summer in which the lead story on the NFL Network is, 'Will Brett Favre Return?'" This is the first year since 2003 where we didn't have an obvious 370-carry guy to get all the votes. Other candidates receiving mention: Shaun Alexander (at this point, the only way he can decline further is if he starts running the wrong way like Jim Marshall), Tarvaris Jackson (?), Jason David (HOW???) and "Amy Winehouse".

Which of the following teams is most likely next year's surprise Super Bowl contender? (Last year's choice: San Francisco)

29.6% Houston 26.8% Buffalo 19.5% Arizona 8.0% Carolina 5.4% St. Louis 3.5% San Francisco	2.6% Detroit 2.3% New York Jets 1.2% Kansas City 0.5% Oakland 0.5% Miami 0.2% Atlanta

Last year, Green Bay was 4th, Washington 5th, Cleveland 9th, and Tampa Bay 10th. The only problem with Houston is the brutal division they'll have to scale to get where they're going. Petitioning for a move from the AFC to the NFC South would be a good start.

Which playoff team is most likely to decline in 2008? (Last year's choice: Kansas City)

17.0% New England 16.0% Tampa Bay 15.6% Washington 11.4% Seattle 11.2% New York Giants 10.0% Green Bay	8.3% Dallas 4.4% Pittsburgh 2.5% Tennessee 2.2% San Diego 1.0% Indianapolis 0.3% Jacksonville

We made a small mistake here -- we should have phrased the question as "which playoff team is most likely to miss the postseason in 2008?" Of course the Patriots are going to decline -- it is hard to have a regular-season record better than 16-0.

Who should be the number one pick in the 2008 draft?

42.4% Glenn Dorsey 25.3% Jake Long 15.4% Darren McFadden 11.9% Chris Long 5.0% Matt Ryan

If USC defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis has a solid Combine, he could blow thorugh this list like the offensive linemen he embarrassed during Senior Bowl week.

Next week we'll announce the second half of the awards, the TV stuff and assorted other goodies.