Black and Blue Draft Issues

by Will Carroll

It's time to take a look at injured prospects heading into the draft. Bill Barnwell and Doug Farrar pointed me in the right direction, and I worked my sources to find out what teams are watching for as they head into draft day.

Teams aren't working blind or hoping. As I wrote in Pro Football Prospectus 2007, teams not only check these players out head to toe at the Combine or predraft workouts, but players and their agents work hard to manage the flow of information, hoping to spin whatever problems there are and maximize their position. That doesn't mean there aren't still questions, or differences of opinion from one team to another or within a War Room. I got conflicting info from the same team on where some teams were looking at two of these players, and it wasn't a couple positions higher or lower, it was a round's difference. Let's take a look at the high-value players who still have significant questions with only days before the draft:

Matt Ryan (QB, Boston College): When a team is drafting a quarterback, more than any other position on the field, they're looking for perfection. The slightest hint of anything wrong -- physically, mentally, or off the field -- sends them into panic. So far, a couple teams seem a bit fixated on Matt Ryan's fifth metatarsal. He broke the bone, the most lateral (outside) bone of his push foot. After surgery to fixate the bone, Ryan showed no problems with his set or his mobility during the 2007 season. Some are wondering if the "fluttering" they see in his deep ball is the result of the foot issue, but there's no evidence that this is the case and the injury is not noted in his Combine package. Ryan is all over the board, predicted to go as high as third to the Falcons or fifth to the Chiefs, though the Ravens have an obvious need at the position with the eighth overall pick. One of the more interesting comments I heard on Ryan was that the foot may not limit his mobility, but only because he wasn't mobile to begin with. That limitation that could prove problematic if he went to Atlanta or Kansas City, given both team's line issues.

Glenn Dorsey (DT, Louisiana St.): Football is often described as a "guts" game. That's what it's going to take to draft Dorsey in the top of the NFL draft. Yes, he's a talented player who can dominate the line of scrimmage, but he also has extensive back and leg issues that often take him completely out of a game. He might have a case against Tommy Tuberville after a chop block cost him much of the 2007 season [1]. All his knee and back problems can be traced back to this questionable play. Well, at 6-feet-2, 316 pounds, some of those back problems might have some other causes. One NFL medical staffer says that Dorsey's not going to be an every-down guy, needing some breaks, but that his quickness remained intact. Despite the injury concerns, and several scouts comparing him to Booger McFarland, Dorsey is expected to go early in the first round, though his inability to play in a 3-4 may slide him down if he doesn't go in the top five.

Sedrick Ellis (DT, USC): Ellis isn't as talented as Glenn Dorsey, but he's healthier for the most part. Like many big men in the middle, Ellis has had some knee issues, needing minor surgery and regular drainings to keep him on the field. It hasn't changed his speed or (most importantly) his quickness, but leads to some questions about him "adding bulk." You gotta love the suggestion that a guy who's 6-1, 305 might need to bulk up. It's just as entertaining to hear him described over and over as a "quick little guy" and "speedy" but the descriptions are accurate. Ellis will slide a bit in the round because of what he is, a solid player who'll need to be in the right system to succeed, rather than what he isn't. His dominant performance at the Senior Bowl put him there in the first place.

Kenny Phillips (S, Miami): It might be a thin safety class in 2008, but Phillips isn't a question mark in any year. He's point-blank the top safety on the board in every War Room and his thumb injury isn't going to be an issue. He played through the injury and surgery to lock it down should keep it from being a significant issue once he settles into the NFL. Scouts all reluctantly seem to be comparing him to Sean Taylor, though they all seem to be looking to find some other name to use, out of respect. He'll be a first-round pick, though needs might slide him down to the bottom half. One team clearly looking at him is Washington, which somehow seems right.

Jonathan Stewart (RB, Oregon): Injuries and Oregon are two things that NFL scouts just don't want to discuss right now. They will talk about Jonathan Stewart if you ask nicely, mostly because Stewart made it to the Combine and showed that he was recovering nicely from a fractured toe that he suffered late in the season. One scout I spoke with -- unafraid to start a Duck vs. Beaver controversy -- compared Stewart to Steven Jackson for his power/speed combination. When you're able to run a 4.48 40-yard dash at 235 pounds, you will gain some serious interest. This should translate to a mid-first round pick for Stewart. Maybe he needs a better Web site. [2] Neither Stewart's draft position nor his NFL career should be impacted by the toe injury.

Limas Sweed (WR, Texas): Want an indication of just how transparent the injury process is for the NFL Draft? Limas Sweed had wrist surgery in October and his doctor released this statement to teams: "Limas underwent reconstruction of the scapholunate ligament, which is a small ligament between the scaphoid bone and the lunate bone in his left wrist," Hunt said. "His surgery is complete, and everything went perfect. He did beautifully. We expect an excellent recovery." Sweed's size/speed combo plays very well and his draft position, predicted as anywhere from 12 to 22 by people I spoke with. In fact, it was Sweed's 40 time (4.52) that was the biggest concern mentioned. His own analysis at the Combine -- Sweed claimed that wrist was 100 percent healed with 65 percent range of motion -- showed his ability to cogitate Yogi Berra math.

Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville): Brohm continues to slide in many draft rankings. He suffered a torn ACL, an injured thumb, and shoulder surgery during his time at Louisville, a medical record that doesn't suggest durability. Some are trying to point out that Brohm does seem to recover from these woes and despite all the injuries, he hasn't lost effectiveness. Others see a guy who's brittle and can't stay healthy getting hit by college players. Baltimore doesn't seem to mind his physical foibles, though many expect them to try and trade down, seeing how far Brohm is sliding on many draft boards. To me, the biggest issue is his shoulder and whether it's back to a first-round level physically. A team that can tolerate the fragile effectiveness of Steve McNair (and has a couple adequate backups on hand) shouldn't have any problems with Brohm.

Malcolm Kelly (WR, Oklahoma): The big wideout couldn't run at the Combine due to a quad strain, just the latest in a series of injuries that includes knee cartilage, hip pointers, and concussions. The minor injuries and his tendency to vanish at times reminds almost everyone I spoke to of Larry Fitzgerald, though the injury concerns seem minor. One staffer told me that "you can't send this kind of guy over the middle, but why would you? He's an outside guy you burst off the line and lob it to." Then again, scouts talk about Kelly's "bubble" and "tight skin" in ways that make me uncomfortable. Teams won't be bothered by such things and will take Kelly in the middle of the first round.

DeSean Jackson (WR, California): Listening to comparisons is one of the best parts of the draft. Jackson gets a wide range of comps, everything from Steve Smith (short, but fast and strong) to Ted Ginn (just fast) and even Devin Hester (crazy fast), but as with all those players, durability is just a euphemism for "is he too small?" Jackson has a long but minor injury history, mostly focused on a thumb injury and a decided tendency to bruise up after taking a normal hit. He doesn't guard his legs well and with small pads, he's often getting dinged up. It would seem easily correctible -- wear bigger pads! -- but players are creatures of habit, even when it's a stupid habit. What's also interesting is that most teams looking at Jackson at the end of the first round seem to be debating between him and James Hardy, a player that couldn't be more different in size or style. Most prefer Jackson, it seems, but it will all hinge on whether a particular team believes that Jackson can stay healthy enough to play 16 games. Given the evidence, I'd take Hardy.

Phillip Merling (DE, Clemson): Merling missed both the Combine and Clemson's Pro Day with a sports hernia. The big and fast defensive end is actually seeing his "high motor" tag work against him. "If a motivated guy like that can't get it up for Pro Day, that thing must be bad," one FOT (front office type) told me. Merling had no real injury problems in college, and sports hernias are easily repaired. The injury should not keep Merling from moving up the board; indeed, comparisons to Justin Tuck and Gaines Adams have boosted Merling lately. He's still rated as one of the best defensive ends on the board in an admittedly weak class, so expect him to go sometime in the early second round. He'll finally get his workout on the Thursday before the draft when he conducts a scaled-down solo Pro Day for various scouts.

De' Cody Fagg (WR, Florida State): This might be the cruelest injury of all. Fagg tore his ACL and more running a route ... at the Combine. Every scout and team in the world saw it and saw how bad it was. Fagg already had some issues coming into the draft, but this one sealed his fate since a blown out knee trumps both the positives he had (solid size) and the negatives (questionable route running). Some think Fagg will go on the second day as a team takes a flier on his recovery, but according to one source, "It's going to be like eBay on him, with everyone waiting until the latest possible pick to keep the bonus down." Fagg isn't reliant on his speed, but has also contended with shoulder, back, and leg issues throughout his career.