EPC: Earnest Graham

by Doug Farrar

Is a running back who has enjoyed one good NFL season worth a multi-year, multi-million-dollar contract?

If you ask the Atlanta Falcons, a back who hasn't even had one good full NFL season is worth a six-year, $34.5 million deal. That's what Michael Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson's former backup, got from Arthur Blank's team based on a few long runs and the temptation of potential. In San Francisco, Frank Gore got a four-year, $28 million extension in March of 2007 after leading the NFC in rushing in 2006, his second year in the NFL.

Entering 2007, the Tampa Bay Bucs thought that Cadillac Williams, the fifth overall pick in 2005, would be the team's feature back. Unfortunately, Williams tore his patellar tendon in the fourth game of the season. While Williams went off to surgery and rehab, left to wonder if the negative perceptions about the rest of his career would ring true, the Bucs turned to Earnest Graham, an undrafted fifth-year veteran out of Florida. Released twice in his rookie season of 2003, the 5-foot-9, 225-pound Graham spent most of the next four seasons on the practice squad. He didn't start a game until October 14, 2007, and carried the ball a grand total of 52 times for 215 yards from 2004 through 2006. But when Michael Pittman suffered an ankle injury in early October last year, Graham went from committee member to full-time workhorse.

It was Graham's productivity, along with the efforts of two seemingly ageless players in Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway, that joined up with a newly resurgent defense to make the Buccaneers the 2007 NFC South champs. This won them a date on their home field in the wild card round with the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants. In Graham's mind, his 898 regular season yards and 10 touchdowns on 222 carries (not to mention 49 receptions) have earned him a new contract in the same hemisphere as Gore and other elite backs. Before we discuss how feasible that is (his current 2008 base salary stands at $605,000), let's take a look at his work against the Giants' formidable front seven in a 24-14 playoff loss that saw the Tampa Bay offense seriously hampered by Joey Galloway's shoulder injury. Specifically, we'll look at Graham's work in the first-quarter drive that produced the game's first touchdown.

On the first drive of the game, Graham carried the ball twice -- falling forward into a scrum for two yards on Tampa Bay's first offensive play, and gaining four yards to the left behind the excellent blocking of fullback B.J. Askew and right guard Davin Joseph, who pulled left and walled off linebacker Reggie Torbor on the outside. On the second drive, Jon Gruden asked Graham to pound that rock, and this is the drive that deserves our focus.

Second-and-10 from the Tampa Bay 46 (6:56 remaining)

The second drive began with a notable event -- Jeff Garcia overthrowing Joey Galloway. Garcia's not known for his rocket arm, and Galloway is still regarded as one of the fastest receivers in the NFL. (In the booth, Troy Aikman talked about how he could not have possibly overthrown Galloway during their brief time together on the 2000 Cowboys.) This was the first of many indications that something was wrong with No. 84.

On the next play, the Bucs lined up in an I-formation, with Askew as the blocking back. Garcia, Askew, the entire Tampa Bay offensive line, and nearly every Giants defender headed left, leaving an enormous cutback lane for Graham to exploit. This he did, as Joseph held up tackle Fred Robbins in the middle of the field, and Robbins, linebacker Gerris Wilkinson, and tackle Justin Tuck got lost in the backwash. Tuck tried to take Graham down with what basically amounted to an ankle tackle, which will not happen in this lifetime. If you're going to bring Earnest Graham down, you need a very good angle and/or some help. Graham was tackled after 11 yards by free safety Gibril Wilson. I liked Graham's quickness on the cutback on this play, his ability to see exactly when the hole opened up and his quickness in making the decision.

First-and-10 from the New York 32 (5:30)

After an 11-yard pass from Garcia to Michael "You Can Take Me off the Milk Carton Now" Clayton, Garcia handed off to Graham again from an I-formation with Askew in front. Graham headed right up the middle, and center John Wade was the pointman on this play. Wade snapped the ball to Garcia and was then on tackle Barry Cofield immediately, driving Cofield to the left and away from the play. This allowed Askew to occupy the lane and engage middle linebacker Antonio Pierce long enough for Graham to fly by Pierce and pick up seven yards. It took two defenders -- Wilkinson and Wilson -- to bring Graham down on this play. Graham likes to get as low to the ground as possible at first contact, and he's very good at falling forward for that extra yard.

Second-and-3 from the New York 25 (4:50)

The Bucs lined up single-back, with two tight ends -- Alex Smith at the line to the right, and Anthony Becht in the left slot. Becht motioned presnap to the right side backfield for additional blocking assistance, as Torbor was blitzing that side. Becht took Torbor out of the play, as Graham headed inside after right guard Arron Sears pulled right and bounced both safeties -- Wilson and James Butler -- outside. The play was also made possible by Joseph pushing Robbins into the next county at the line. Osi Umenyiora slipped inside to make the tackle after Graham traveled a bit less than three yards. This led to a third-and-inches that was converted by a Garcia quarterback sneak.

First-and-10 from the New York 20 (3:42)

I-formation, and the play headed right, with Graham behind Askew. Askew took on Torbor between the right guard and right tackle, but that didn't matter much, because Michael Strahan absolutely abused right tackle Jeremy Trueblood on this play. Strahan had Trueblood dead to rights from the word go, getting under his pads and pushing him out of the play before Askew could get out of the backfield. By the time Askew was dealing with Torbor, Strahan had already turned back around and was almost ready to take care of Graham. Where Graham's power is especially advantageous is on a play like this, where an elite defensive player hasn't quite adjusted his body back to the play, and therefore can't get the perfect angle on the back. Graham got one yard out of a play that should have been zero or a loss.

Second-and-9 from the New York 20 (3:08)

This was the first play in which you really got a chance to see Graham's straight-line speed. Tampa Bay lined up in an interesting formation, a tight-I with Michael Pittman and Graham in the backfield, and tight ends Alex Smith and Jerramy Stevens aligned right. Stevens was off-tackle and Smith was right slot. Presnap, everything changed, as Smith motioned from right to left slot, Stevens went wide right, Pittman motioned up to the right slot, and Galloway stayed wide left. The play went from a right-side power, two-back formation to a four-receiver set with Graham alone in the backfield. The Giants adjusted to this by moving Butler back into coverage from about five yards off the line, and moving Torbor back from a read blitz to cover. The linebacker splits went from two yards to about five, and Webster backed off Galloway after coming up to play press.

Graham headed upfield through center at the snap as if he was shot out of a cannon, and caught a little dink pass from Garcia about five yards upfield. Graham was given even more relief by Garcia's pump-fake, which had Antonio Pierce hesitating just enough for Graham to get free of Pierce as he was heading slightly left. By the time Pierce recovered to make the tackle, Graham was down at the Giants' six-yard line. I give most of the credit for this 14-yard gain to whoever called the play -- whether it was Gruden off the playsheet or Garcia at the line. The Bucs fooled the Giants defense and determined the outcome. But I also liked Graham's quickness before and after the catch.

First-and-Goal from the New York 6 (2:28)

Three outstanding blocks made this play go, as the Bucs lined up tight-I with Askew at fullback. First, Askew's block on Wilson, who was coming up to blitz on the Giants' left side, allowed Graham to release to the right inside. Second, Davin Joseph's block on Pierce, three yards downfield, kept Graham moving. Third, Alex Smith was walling off Wilkinson to Graham's left, which gave Graham a free lane. Because of the excellent blocking around him, the attempted tackles by Robbins and Justin Tuck did not have the desired effect. Graham was able to fall forward a good four yards after initial contact, down to the one-yard line.

Second-and-goal from the New York 1 (1:53)

Touchdown Buccaneers, as Graham got low again, slipping under the tackles and behind Joseph's pulling block. With 1:49 left in the first quarter, Tampa Bay went up 6-0. Graham touched the ball six times on the touchdown drive, five times on the ground, and gained 41 of the 54 yards it took to lead the game.

The Bucs wouldn't lead for long, as the Giants scored 24 unanswered points before a late touchdown pass from Garcia to Alex Smith made the game look a bit closer at 24-14. New York had begun one of the greatest and most improbable postseason runs in NFL history, but we're going to stay behind with Gruden's team and ask a few questions.

First, why did Gruden abandon the run when it was working? After that first successful drive, Graham only carried the ball 11 more times, and the Giants didn't have more than a seven-point lead until Lawrence Tynes kicked a 25-yard field goal with five minutes gone in the third quarter. Joey Galloway's shoulder injury left Garcia without his primary weapon at full strength, and after possessing the ball for almost ten minutes in the first quarter, the Bucs never again had it for more than 6:40 in a quarter, and could barely manage five minutes in the second and fourth quarters. The Giants' 2007 defensive line will go down as one of the best in recent history, but Graham and his teammates were absolutely making inroads against it.

In the drive at the end of the second quarter after the Giants tied the score, a two-yard run by Graham was followed by eight straight Garcia passes and an eventual punt. Tampa Bay's next drive saw Graham take the ball on the ground five times for 23 yards. That drive ended when Garcia was intercepted by Corey Webster at the goal line on a pass to Galloway. After that, it was too late.

Second, could an upswing for the Tampa Bay offensive line be right around the corner? This was the NFL's youngest line in 2007. Tackles Jeremy Trueblood and Donald Penn are coming into their third NFL seasons, as is guard Davin Joseph (who impressed me most of all in this game), while guard Arron Sears was a rookie in 2007. The acquisition of center Jeff Faine from New Orleans makes a strong position even stronger, as the Saints finished first in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards up the middle despite Deuce McAllister's season-ending injury.

You may notice that in discussing Graham in this article, I've talked as much about the offensive line. That's in part because I believe that's always the ratio that should be used when talking about running backs, but also because I was so impressed with the blocking Graham had going for him. Tampa Bay's line finished sixth in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards [2] last season -- the 4.49 yards per play average was almost half a yard better than the actual rushing yards per play. With two young guards showing great potential, and one of the best centers in the league now on board, the numbers could be even better in 2008.

The quality of blocking leads to the big question: Is Earnest Graham worth an All-Pro payday? It depends on how you value running backs. I tend to value backs based on their versatility, durability, and dependence on their offensive line. Graham is a fairly versatile player as a power back -- beyond the obvious between-the-tackles action, he's a good receiver and he has a bit of side-to-side escapability (the phrase that kept going through my head was "Jamal Lewis Lite"). His durability is not a concern to this point, because he hasn't played much outside of his 2007 season, though backs that make their bones between the tackles generally have short shelf lives.

Graham is, however, a back who needs a great line to make things happen. He's got decent burst at the start of a play and through his cuts, but he's far more about bowling people over than he is about making them miss. In my mind, this makes him more a component back than a feature back. I would be more likely to have Graham in a rotation as a power option, paired with a smaller, shiftier back. Now that the Bucs have given Askew a new contract (a very wise move, based on what I've seen) and brought Warrick Dunn back in the fold, Graham's carries will almost certainly decrease from the 19.6 he averaged as a full-game starter in 2007. It's not that this doesn't make him valuable, but it's tougher to argue that you're worth Frank Gore money when you're not taking on a Frank Gore workload. Then again, with Mike Martz now running San Francisco's offense, the "Frank Gore Workload" concept could be taking a serious hit as well. The concept of running back workload seems to be changing around the league, which is certainly a good thing -- for the first time since 2001 and for only the third time in the last ten seasons, no back is in line for the Curse of 370 [3].

If Graham can recreate his 2007 production in 2008, he'll be in a much better position to ask for that kind of money. For now, stringing more than one good season together is the order of the day.