The Hall of Fame Index, Part Two

by Mike Tanier and Doug Farrar

In late June, the Broncos blog Mile High Report [1] investigated a phenomenon that has stuck in many a Broncos fan's craw for years. The Broncos have been an incredibly successful franchise since the mid-1970s, with six Super Bowl appearances, two championships, and tons of playoff appearances. But the Broncos have just two official representatives in the Hall of Fame: John Elway and Gary Zimmerman. The article calls the low Broncos representation a "snubbing" and a "gross injustice."

A couple of us at Football Outsiders decided to use the Mile High Report as a springboard for a larger Hall of Fame discussion. We wanted to know what the typical ratio of Hall members to franchise accomplishments truly is, and to determine what teams are over- or underrepresented. So we cooked up a method to measure each franchise's Hall of Famer-to-Accomplishment Index, then used the numbers as an excuse to publishing a rambling discussion about the Hall of Fame. This is the second part of that article; the method is described at the start of part one [2], which also includes discussion of teams from the Arizona Cardinals to the Miami Dolphins.

To aid in the discourse, we've linked every player's name to their page at the Hall of Fame [3] site (for HoFers) or their page at pro-football-reference.com [4] (for hopefuls).

The Teams, Part Two

Minnesota Vikings

Accomplishment Score: 165
Hall of Famers: 8
Index: 4.8

Doug: I'm going to assume that someone can explain to me why Jim Marshall [5] is not in the Hall of Fame. 282 straight starts, 127 sacks (per the Vikings franchise), a key member of one of the all-time great defenses. I could go on and on, but I won't. I really like Chuck Foreman [6] as the unheralded precursor to Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk (he led the NFL in receptions in 1975), but the career's too short. The Marshall omission is so ridiculous, it was tough to move on to other names. Who might you include?

Mike: NFL's Top 10 is running a show tonight (Tuesday) at 8pm on the top players not in the HAll of Fame, and Marshall is on the list. I taped a segment for the show and I mentioned that he's punished for running the wrong way after that fumble, punished for losing four Super Bowls, punished for playing on a line with two other all-time greats, and punished for playing in an era before official sack totals. I think the four Super Bowls are key. The Broncos lost four before they won two, and the Bills of course lost four. I would bet you a beer that many voters think losing a Super Bowl is worse than laboring for years on some average team. The Vikings were like the Broncos a few years ago, with very few HoFers before Ron Yary [7] and Paul Krause [8] got in. Mick Tingelhoff [9], a five-time first team All-Pro, still cannot get in, and when you ask older sportswriters they talk about his bad performance in Super Bowl IV.

And we agreed earlier [2] that Cris Carter [10] is an obvious choice.

Doug: Speaking of Vikings named C(h)ris snubbed by the Hall, what about Chris Doleman [11]? Two-time All-Pro with eight Pro Bowl trips, fourth all-time with 150.5 sacks, 31st all-time in starts with 231. We talked about players penalized for losing Super Bowls. Doleman has been penalized for missing great eras with two different franchises. Playing for the Vikings from 1985 through 1993 meant that he missed the Bud Grant Super Bowl teams by a good decade, and the apex of the Denny Green/Carter/Moss/point-per-minute teams by a few years on the other side.

Then, he played for the 49ers from 1996 through 1998, when the team was great but couldn't get in the Super Bowl. Bonus points for playing in Atlanta in 1994 and 1995, just a few years before their only Super Bowl appearance, and in a mini-era best known for the sideline snit between June Jones and Jeff George. Doleman finished his career back in Minnesota in 1999, racking up eight sacks at age 38. Just because he kept missing the bus doesn't mean he shouldn't be considered. In fact, he's barely remembered. Was he even discussed on that Top 10 Pass Rushers show? An honorable mention? I don't think so.

New England Patriots

Accomplishment Score: 117
Hall of Famers: 4
Index: 3.4

Mike: The Patriots accomplishments are skewed recent; their 2001 Super Bowl win makes the list, but the others don't because we stop the study five years ago. Tom Brady [12] will lead a host of recent Patriots into the Hall of Fame a decade or so down the road, though it's hard to sort out who will make it from the 2001-2008 teams.

Doug: I think Brady and Richard Seymour [13] are locks. Everyone else is up in the air. I don't think of Junior Seau [14] as a multi-team guy. Rodney Harrison [15]?

Mike: Harrison should get in, and I do think of him as a two-team guy. Adam Vinatieri [16] may get in, and will be the worst player in the Hall of Fame if he does.

New Orleans Saints

Accomplishment Score: 66
Hall of Famers: 0
Index: 0.0

Doug: The NFL Network recently voted the Mora-era linebacker corps as the NFL's all-time best (Hey, was Mike Tanier on that Top 10 show?). While that's good grist for argument, I don't think Rickey Jackson's [17] credentials are in doubt. Six Pro Bowls, more sacks than Derrick Thomas, and the pointman for that wonderful Dome Patrol defense. Sam Mills [18] may also have a shot down the road. Great leader, smart player, undersized linebacker in the Zach Thomas/Derrick Brooks/Lofa Tatupu line.

Mike: I wasn't on that show, but I would argue Jackson for the Hall if I was. Mills isn't a bad choice either. If Mills and Kevin Greene [19] joined Reggie White [20], Panthers fans could at least take solace in the fact that they picked up lots of Hall of Famers near the ends of their careers.

New York Giants

Accomplishment Score: 155
Hall of Famers: 9
Index: 5.8

Doug: The modern accomplishments were pretty stacked around Parcells; the '70s were a vast wasteland for this franchise. Do more members of the Tuna's defenses get in?

Mike: I don't see it. I also don't see any New York bias in the voting. If anything, it seems like voters shy away from some "second-tier" candidates, like Phil Simms [21], and they took forever to decide on Harry Carson [22]. Our list even includes Fran Tarkenton [23], a guy most people think of as a Vikings HoFer but who earns dual-citizenship for our purposes.

New York Jets

Accomplishment Score: 103
Hall of Famers: 3
Index: 2.9

Mike: The Jets' overall accomplishment list is pretty scant once you get past Super Bowl III. Still, the numbers say that their HoF total is pretty light. Is there someone who belongs in?

Doug: Yup. I'm gonna get my American Football League ya-yas out in this article, for sure. Defensive end Gerry Philbin [24]. First-team All-Time All-AFL Team, and he was the man on that late-'60s defense. Unofficially, 19 sacks in 1968. Offensive tackle Winston Hill [25] made eight All-Star Games/Pro Bowls in the AFL and NFL. Will Curtis Martin [26] be a two-team guy?

Mike: I think of Martin as a Patriot and a Jet. Hill is an odd case because he was also one of the stars of Super Bowl III, with Matt Snell [27] running right over him for 146 yards. I don't know why he and Philbin didn't merit more consideration.

Oakland Raiders

Accomplishment Score: 162
Hall of Famers: 12
Index: 7.4

Mike: Al Davis thinks there aren't enough Raiders in the Hall. Our numbers say otherwise. They top the AFL franchises by a wide margin, Index-wise.

Doug: And there aren't any unfairly denied stragglers. The most interesting thing to me about this franchise is that four different quarterbacks have taken the Raiders to the Super Bowl -- Daryle Lamonica [28], Ken Stabler [29], Jim Plunkett [30], and Rich Gannon [31] -- and none of them, in my opinion, make the cut. Maybe Plunkett if your vote is heavily weighted in favor of the postseason, but that'd have to be a heavy weight to counterbalance 198 picks to 164 touchdowns. The appropriate four members of that unbelievable offensive line from the early '70s are in – Art Shell [32], Gene Upshaw [33], Jim Otto [34], and Bob Brown [35]. Oakland's glory years were marked by a lot of castoffs on defense like John Matuszak [36] and Lyle Alzado [37], and the ones who stayed around long enough to be truly great like Ted Hendricks [38] (one of my all-time favorite players) are in there as Raiders. Maybe there's an argument for Todd Christensen [39] in a slow year.

Mike: Christensen has a case. Stabler has a pretty good case. Plunkett is the worst quarterback ever to win two Super Bowls. He really had the Trent Dilfer [40] career -- top pick, stunk early, bounced around a bit, stumbled onto a great team -- then picked up a bonus ring because Marc Wilson [41] wasn't good enough to replace him and the Raiders stayed great. There's still a lot of support for Ray Guy [42], who was a finalist again this year. Do you wanna tackle the punter?

Doug: Well, if you're going to tackle anyone ... I can't sign on to the idea of a guy who did nothing but punt making the Hall. Unless he revolutionized the position, or put opposing teams in a field-position hole unlike any other punter in history. ANYthing that stands out. Was he the best punter of his era? Sure. Why not? And normally, being the best at your position in an era gets you in automatically. That's the argument for. The argument against is just as simple: He's a freakin' punter. I tend to err on that side.

Philadelphia Eagles

Accomplishment Score: 135
Hall of Famers: 9
Index: 6.7

Doug: I'll defer to your expertise on this fine franchise. Looks like a pretty fair representation to me. Is there anyone from the 1970s who merits consideration? Harold Carmichael [43] is a name that comes to mind, but that could be a product of my childhood memories of his consecutive games streak. In PFP 2007, Ned Macey wrote about the longtime Art Monk debate in an article entitled, "What Makes a Hall of Fame Receiver?," and Carmichael's pretty high in the stats adjusted for era presented there.

Mike: Carmichel would be an excellent candidate. That's about it. Bill Bergey [44] might have been a marginal candidate. The Eagles get a high representation score because they fielded championship teams in 1948 and 1949, just before our study begins. HoFers like Pete Pihos [45] and Steve Van Buren [46] made their bones with those teams.

With an Eagles guy and a Seahawks guy here, it's a good opportunity to bring up Ricky Watters [47]. Are you a Watters Kool-Aid drinker?

Doug: Well, seven backs have amassed more than 10,000 rushing yards and 3,800 receiving yards in their careers: Marcus Allen [48], Marshall Faulk [49], Tiki Barber [50], Walter Payton [51], Thurman Thomas [52], Warrick Dunn [53], and Watters. But this is where you start to think about "stat collectors" again. How many of those guys aren't HoFers? We talked about Dunn, and Barber will get a good argument. Watters never made the Pro Bowl as a Seahawks player, though as we discuss in the Cortez Kennedy [54] section, the Dennis Erickson Seahawks were about as juiceless a squad as you will ever see. There's also the perception of selfishness, and that could hurt Barber as well. This isn't supposed to be a popularity contest, but it's naïve to say that it isn't (see Mike's comment about Warren Sapp [55]). Based on my own impressions, Barber and Watters are the two exclusions in that group.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Accomplishment Score: 175
Hall of Famers: 12
Index: 6.9

Mike: A few years back, I argued that the Steelers are almost comically overrepresented in the Hall. This was after Lynn Swann [56] and John Stallworth [57] got in, when the voters seemed determine to induct the whole starting lineup of those 1970s teams. Now, we've had six straight classes with no Steelers, and the ratios feel much better. The voters dip into the 1970s and grab a worthy player or two every year: Elvin Bethea [58], Roger Wehrli [59], Fred Dean [60], Carl Eller [61]. The list of HoFers from that decade is a lot more inclusive, and the Steelers' overall inductees appear to be more in line with their accomplishments.

Doug: Right. The question becomes, who eventually goes in from the Blitzburgh teams of the mid-'90s? Rod Woodson [62] is as sure a thing as there will ever be. I would be pretty shocked if Kevin Greene [19] didn't make it. Dermontti Dawson [63] has been on the top 25 list multiple times. Jerome Bettis [64] down the road.

Mike: Greene's sack totals are hard to argue with. I am not sure about his reputation. He bounced around a lot and never engendered a lot of loyalty in any one city. Also, Derrick Thomas [65] has been on the ballot for three years with no takers. High sack totals may not impress some voters, as I said earlier.

St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams

Accomplishment Score: 182
Hall of Famers: 12
Index: 6.6

Doug: It's too bad we're not doing coaches in this one; I'll have to save my Chuck Knox argument for another time. Linebacker Isiah Robertson [66] is primarily known for the NFL Films highlight in which he gets gored by Earl Campbell [67], but the guy was a six-time Pro Bowler on a set of top-5 defenses. Anyone else we're missing before the Greatest Show on Turf?

Mike: Robertson was a great player, but I think the voters inducted Jack Youngblood [68], Merlin Olson [69], and Deacon Jones [70], then figured they had the Great Rams Defender of the 1960s-'70s category covered. I can't say I disagree. When Marshall Faulk [49], Orlando Pace [71], and some random assortment of Isaac Bruce [72] or Torry Holt [73] gets in, the Rams may look downright overrepresented in the Hall.

San Diego Chargers

Accomplishment Score: 107
Hall of Famers: 6
Index: 5.6

Mike: Fred Dean [60]: borderline inductee? I am of two minds about him.

Doug: "Borderline" is a good way of putting it, though the general consensus was that he pushed that first Walsh San Francisco defense over the edge. There are more egregious inductees. I'd have liked to see Russ Washington [75] elected before Dean, if we're talking Chargers linemen. One of the most underrated offensive tackles in the modern game. Five-time All-Pro. John Matuszak [36] wrote that Washington was the one opponent that would have him tossing and turning the night before the game.

Mike: Washington's a good player. Dean's resume has a little of everything. Stats? He's got some. Great teams? Got some. He just doesn't have a lot of anything. And I remember that he had the "sacks only" reputation late in his career. Like I said, reputations fade.

San Francisco 49ers

Accomplishment Score: 188
Hall of Famers: 11
Index: 5.9

Doug: I tend to think that the Siefert/Young/Mariucci 49ers will eventually become one of those series of teams where you get random players inducted over time. I'm a bit more interested in the early '70s squads that couldn't ever get past Dallas in the playoffs. John Brodie [76] put up some AFL numbers back when the NFL was an earthbound league, and he did it over a long period of time. He's my cause celebre, for the purposes of this article. Thoughts?

Mike: Look at Brodie, Roman Gabriel [77], and John Hadl [78] side-by-side. Good numbers guys, played for successful teams, went to some Pro Bowls. Can you really advocate Brodie over the other two? And if you advocate all three, well, doesn't that open the door for Ken Stabler [29], Ken Anderson [79] and about a dozen others?

Seattle Seahawks

Accomplishment Score: 53
Hall of Famers: 1
Index: 1.9

Doug: Cortez Kennedy [54]: Eight-time Pro Bowler, 14.5 sacks in 1992 for a defense saddled with an offense that made the 2005 49ers look like the 1999 Rams. Basically unblockable through the 1990s. Not even on the list in his first year of eligibility. Duh, guys.

Mike: An absolutely great player at his peak, but no one cares about the Seahawks of the early 1990s. Seriously, talk about a team with no juice. I'm not sure Kennedy is a Hall of Famer, but he should be on the ballot. He should be talked about. Again, is this a sign of there being too many worthy players, or of a system that doesn't identify the best players quickly enough?

Doug: As much as I would love to say that Kenny Easley [80] is a flat-out Hall-of-Famer, I just can't. There just aren't enough years in the career, and the curve of excellence just doesn't look quite right, though he was as much of a joy to watch as any player I've ever seen. Mike, I've been going back and forth on Dave Krieg [81] for years. Is he one of those Steve DeBerg [82]/Vinny Testaverde [83] guys who just racked stats in a long career, or is he one all-time fumbles record away from a bust in Canton?

Mike: Homer alert. Homer alert. Back away from the Dave Krieg cigarettes. Yes, he is one of those DeBerg/Testaverde guys.

Doug: Yeah, I know. But I had to bring him up, because if you write about the Seahawks long enough, you get people saying, "But Krieg is in the all-time Top 10 in X number of categories (paints face blue)!"

Interesting thing about the 1980s Seahawks, and I think this true of most teams coached by Chuck Knox though his career, is that there were lot of good-but-not great players that skew the accomplishment/talent ratio to a point. Many high (over)achievers in the 1980s. The 1990s featured long stretches of mediocrity broken up with a patch of suckitude. If you include their current head coach (and I think most people would), there may be as many potential inductees on the current team as there have been in franchise history. Low indexes can mean different things. The Broncos have been screwed by the voters. The Seahawks just haven't had that many HoFers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Accomplishment Score: 73
Hall of Famers: 1
Index: 1.4

Doug: When you go 15 straight seasons without a winning record, it's tough to argue that you're being ignored at the Podium of Destiny. There will be enough to talk about when Warren Sapp [55], Derrick Brooks [84] and John Lynch [85] go in. I'm voting Warrick Dunn [53] in as the last back under 200 pounds who will ever rush for more than 10,000 yards. Anyone we're missing here?

Mike: I don't think Lynch is a shoo-in, and I am not even certain about Sapp, who may become the victim of a backlash in the next few years. He's one of those guys for whom it is very easy to remember the "downs" with the ups, and it may take voters a few years to forget his off years and sometimes dumb behavior.

Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers

Accomplishment Score: 139
Hall of Famers: 8
Index: 5.8

Mike: The Titans/Oilers franchise is pretty high on the "accomplishments" list because they racked up a lot of secondary accomplishments: a lost Super Bowl, two AFL titles, scads of playoff appearances. When you look at their HoF members, there's a good balance of 1970s, '80s, and '90s players on the list. The one guy I would add, Curley Culp [86], would count for both the Oilers and Chiefs in our study. Culp was an outstanding defensive tackle, a starter on the Chiefs team that won Super Bowl IV, then played on that great Oilers defense of the 1970s.

Doug: Agreed on Culp. I don't see anyone from the Bum Phillips days that isn't in there and really should be. Eddie George [87] just got beaten down a few years too soon.

Steve McNair [88]: HoF-level great or stat collector?

Mike: Neither. A great player and competitor who just comes up short. You can make a pretty impressive grouping of sub-HoF quarterbacks who were still very good: McNair, Phil Simms [21], Ken Anderson [79], Ken Stabler [29]. Joe Theismann [89] fits in here, as do some guys like John Brodie [76] that we mention elsewhere. You can do the same at every position. The fact that there are quite a few guys and that it is hard to put them in an order everyone can agree upon makes a good argument that they didn't separate themselves enough to become true Hall of Famers.

Washington Redskins

Accomplishment Score: 142
Hall of Famers: 10
Index: 7.4

Doug: At least one of the Hogs has to get in, right? Which one?

Mike: Russ Grimm [90], probably. Though when you look at each Hog individually, you don't see a great HoF resume among them. Grimm was a consensus All-Pro during the Redskins' best seasons, so he's a good candidate.

With Art Monk's [91] enshrinement, it seems like the voters are just getting around to those 1980s Redskins. Darrell Green [92] and Riggo [93] are in, and I have a hunch Grimm will join Monk, and that will probably wrap things up.

The Expansion Teams

Baltimore Ravens

Accomplishment Score: 27
Hall of Famers: 0
Index: 0.0

Mike: The least accomplished team on our list to win a Super Bowl. Of course, the Ravens have two HoFers in the pipeline in Jonathan Ogden [94] and Ray Lewis [95]. And Shannon Sharpe [96] if you count him as a dual-team star.

Doug: I would. And add Ed Reed [97] if things keep going as they are.

Carolina Panthers

Accomplishment Score: 14
Hall of Famers: 0
Index: 0

Doug: I think Kevin Greene [19] is a future Hall-of-Famer, though most people think of him as a Ram or Steeler. Looking at Carolina's history, I don't know if they have a homegrown immortal yet. Steve Smith [98] would have to put a lot more together, and those defensive linemen -- I just don't see it yet. Am I missing someone?

Mike: Let's see if Julius Peppers [99] bounces back in a big way. There's nobody who is even halfway in right now.

Houston Texans

Accomplishment Score: 4
Hall of Famers: 0
Index: 0.0

Mike: We'll be arguing about Mario Williams [100] in the year 2025 or so.

Doug: Not to mention all-time passing leader David Carr [101]! Yeah, that's a team in need of a little more history.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Accomplishment Score: 34
Hall of Famers: 0
Index: 0.0

Mike: Tony Boselli [102] had a chance to be the first Jaguars player in the Hall, but injuries cut his career short. I don't think Jimmy Smith [103] belongs in. Any Jaguars HoFers on the horizon?

Doug: Nobody stands out, though if the team keeps preserving Fred Taylor [104] in whatever solution they've been dipping him in over the last few seasons, he might amass enough yardage to tag some votes.

Closing Arguments

Mike: After the 1960s Packers and the 1970s Steelers, I think we have an expectation that a team that wins multiple Super Bowls should have six or seven Hall of Famers. Isn't that over-optimistic?

Doug: I think it depends how the team is built, and how many years the span of excellence goes. With the 49ers, you're talking about a Super Bowl era from 1981-1994, where they were never really out of contention. That's going to bring more players to the fore than a team like the Cowboys of the early 1990s, where it's basically the same team in a more condensed timeframe.

Mike: Another question: Is there a backlog of exceptional candidates? If we're still trying to push the best players from the 1980s through in 2008, should the Hall have a few nine-member classes so we can celebrate recent-era greats while we still remember them?

Doug: If that's done, it had better be done soon. More and more, as the bar is raised, you're going to get guys from prior eras losing out because the standard has changed. That's always the case, but my sense is that it's accelerated in the last 15 years or so.

I'm all for the Bill Simmons concept of tiers in the Hall of Fame. You start at the bottom with the guys who are on the bubble, and move up to the top of the pyramid where the all-time greats reside. I think it adds more potential for discussion (Ken Stabler can go in now, but in Level Three or Level Four?), which is the foundation of fandom. You're allowing for the remembrance of those players who currently fall just short, without denying the greats their greatness.

Mike: Oh, I can hear it now. "It's a travesty that Cris Carter is only going in as a Level Two Hall of Famer!" Do the Level Four guys get teeny-weenie busts and 30-second acceptance speeches? The levels are great to talk about, because it helps frame discussion. You can call Dave Kreig a Level Four HoFer, while Randy Gradishar might be a Level Two guy. But you couldn't actually build such a hall.

Doug: Sure you could. So, it looks like the Luxor Hotel instead of a giant grapefruit squeezer. What's wrong with that?

Mike: Visit Cooperstown, and you will see that baseball's Hall of Fame is filled with little shrines to the best teams. I always tell Phillies fans that Garry Maddox and Bob Boone are in the Hall of Fame: There's an exhibit about the 1980 Phillies, and you can see pictures of the second-tier stars, memorabilia, and other trinkets. Canton doesn't have as many exhibits. Maybe they can become more inclusive by beefing up the museum part of the Hall of Fame museum.

But first, they should induct a few more Broncos.

The Numbers

Here are the final results, with every franchise ranked by HoF Index:

Franchise	Accomplishments	HoFers	HoF Index
Cardinals	73	7	9.6
Bears	138	12	8.7
Lions	133	11	8.3
Packers	170	14	8.2
Browns	190	15	7.9
Raiders	162	12	7.4
Redskins	142	10	7.0
Steelers	175	12	6.9
Eagles	135	9	6.7
Rams	182	12	6.6
Niners	188	11	5.9
Giants	155	9	5.8
Oilers/Titans	139	8	5.8
Chiefs	122	7	5.7
Colts	159	9	5.7
Chargers	107	6	5.6
Franchise	Accomplishments	HoFers	HoF Index
Dolphins	159	8	5.0
Vikings	165	8	4.8
Bills	140	6	4.3
Cowboys	212	9	4.2
Patriots	117	4	3.4
Jets	103	3	2.9
Bengals	75	2	2.7
Broncos	131	3	2.3
Seahawks	53	1	1.9
Buccaneers	73	1	1.4
Falcons	75	0	0.0
Saints	66	0	0.0
Jaguars	34	0	0.0
Ravens	27	0	0.0
Panthers	14	0	0.0
Texans	4	0	0.0