Fifth Anniversary Special: Best RB Seasons, 95-07

by Aaron Schatz

In honor of our fifth anniversary, we're running a series of articles looking at the best and worst players in the history of our advanced stats, DVOA and DYAR. If you are unfamiliar with our advanced stats -- perhaps you are a new reader visiting our website for the first time after picking up a copy of Pro Football Prospectus 2008 [1] -- you can read all about them here [2]. The series so far:

For running backs, I want to look at rushing and receiving value separately, and then we'll add the two together. First, here are the top rushing seasons by DVOA, minimum 100 carries. (Note that all the running back stats pages now rank players over 100 carries instead of players over 75 carries.)

Best RB Seasons in Rushing DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 100 carries)
Year	Player	Team	DVOA	DYAR	Runs	Yards	TD	FUM	Suc Rate
2000	Marshall Faulk	STL	35.0%	473	253	1,359	18	0	61%
2002	Priest Holmes	KC	31.2%	539	313	1,615	21	1	55%
2003	Onterrio Smith	MIN	30.7%	170	107	579	5	1	57%
2006	Marion Barber	DAL	30.5%	257	135	654	14	0	56%
2004	Larry Johnson	KC	30.0%	205	120	581	9	0	53%
1995	Charlie Garner	PHI	27.7%	157	108	588	6	1	56%
2002	Clinton Portis	DEN	27.1%	429	273	1,508	15	5	61%
1999	Stephen Davis	WAS	26.4%	449	290	1,407	17	3	60%
1997	Marcus Allen	KC	26.3%	214	124	505	11	4	61%
2003	Brian Westbrook	PHI	25.9%	151	116	605	7	0	45%

Alas, poor Whizzinator, you left us with nothing but memories of what might have been...

In case you are wondering about opponent adjustments, the Faulk and Garner seasons are the ones that take a bit of a hit because of easy schedules, while the Johnson, Allen, and Westbrook seasons get a boost from tough schedules. The Allen and Westbrook seasons provide a great example of how two players can have similar value even though their performances look very different. With a similar number of runs, Westbrook had 100 more yards and four fewer fumbles, but Allen had a much more consistent season and four additional touchdowns. Check out the distribution of yardage for each player:

Yardage Distribution Marcus Allen 1997 vs. Brian Westbrook 2003
	Allen 1997	Westbrook 2003
lost yardage	3	13
0-4 yards	77	54
5-9 yards	37	33
10-19 yards	5	10
20+ yards	2	6

The top rushing DVOA ratings belong to a lot of part-time running backs, so let's look at the best DVOA ratings by lead backs, with at least 15 carries per game (or 240 on the season).

Best RB Seasons in Rushing DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 250 carries)
Year	Player	Team	DVOA	DYAR	Runs	Yards	TD	FUM	Suc Rate
2000	Marshall Faulk	STL	35.0%	473	253	1,359	18	0	61%
2002	Priest Holmes	KC	31.2%	539	313	1,615	21	1	55%
2002	Clinton Portis	DEN	27.1%	429	273	1,508	15	5	61%
1999	Stephen Davis	WAS	26.4%	449	290	1,407	17	3	60%
2003	Priest Holmes	KC	24.8%	480	320	1,420	27	1	58%
2006	Brian Westbrook	PHI	23.9%	314	240	1,217	7	1	48%
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	23.4%	453	348	1,815	28	2	49%
2005	Larry Johnson	KC	23.3%	468	336	1,750	20	5	55%
1998	Terrell Davis	DEN	22.7%	542	392	2,008	21	1	52%
1997	Terrell Davis	DEN	21.3%	478	369	1,743	15	4	56%

A look at the backs who played well in really limited time gives a mix of recent names and guys you have never heard of. The highest DVOA for a back with at least 20 carries belongs to Tampa Bay rookie Jerry Ellison in 1995, 81.4% DVOA thanks to 26 carries for 218 yards and five touchdowns. The second-highest DVOA belongs to DeDe Dorsey with last year's Bengals, and the sixth-highest DVOA belongs to Ahmad Bradshaw of the Giants. If you are looking for reasons for skepticism about Dorsey and Bradshaw, consider that after 1995 Jerry Ellison played four more years with just 150 more rushing yards and never scored another touchdown. Then again, the third-highest DVOA for a running back with at least 20 carries belongs to a rookie fourth-rounder with the 1996 Redskins, a guy by the name of Stephen Davis.

Players like Marshall Faulk and Clinton Portis show up with historically great DVOA ratings in part because of Success Rates above 60 percent. However, the running backs with the highest Success Rates have two things in common: DVOA under 20% and home games at the RCA Dome.

Best RB Seasons in Success Rate, 1995-2007 (min. 100 carries)
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Runs	Yards	TD	FUM	Suc Rate
2006	Joseph Addai	IND	276	18.4%	226	1,074	7	2	62%
2005	Edgerrin James	IND	352	13.0%	360	1,506	13	2	62%
2004	T.J. Duckett	ATL	141	21.1%	104	509	8	2	62%
1997	Marcus Allen	KC	214	26.3%	124	505	11	4	61%
2000	Marshall Faulk	STL	473	35.0%	253	1,359	18	0	61%
2002	Clinton Portis	DEN	429	27.1%	273	1,508	15	5	61%
1999	Stephen Davis	WAS	449	26.4%	290	1,407	17	3	60%
2007	Kenton Keith	IND	125	14.0%	121	533	3	1	58%
2007	Laurence Maroney	NE	199	16.7%	185	835	6	0	58%
2003	Priest Holmes	KC	480	24.8%	320	1,420	27	1	58%

As you might expect, the highest Success Rates for backs below 100 carries belong to fullbacks. Two of the top four spots belong to Lorenzo Neal (83 percent in 2005, 76 percent in 2006) with Mack Strong and Zack Crockett in between, both at 78 percent in 2002.

That brings us to our final list for rushing value, the top ten seasons in rushing DYAR. Even though rushing performance around the league was lower from 1996 through 2001 compared to the seasons since 2002, two of the top three seasons come from the mid-90's. Looking for more ammunition for the Terrell Davis Hall of Fame argument [6]? Here you go...

Best RB Seasons in Rushing DYAR, 1995-2007
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	YAR	DVOA	Runs	Yards	TD	FUM	Suc Rate
1998	Terrell Davis	DEN	542	485	22.7%	392	2,008	21	1	52%
2002	Priest Holmes	KC	539	535	31.2%	313	1,615	21	1	55%
2003	Priest Holmes	KC	480	430	24.8%	320	1,420	27	1	58%
1997	Terrell Davis	DEN	478	450	21.3%	369	1,743	15	4	56%
2000	Marshall Faulk	STL	473	521	35.0%	253	1,359	18	0	61%
2005	Larry Johnson	KC	468	473	23.3%	336	1,750	20	5	55%
1995	Emmitt Smith	DAL	461	421	18.9%	375	1,760	25	7	53%
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	453	498	23.4%	348	1,815	28	2	49%
2005	Shaun Alexander	SEA	449	502	19.3%	370	1,892	27	5	54%
1999	Stephen Davis	WAS	449	454	26.4%	290	1,407	17	3	60%

I left in the numbers with opponent adjustments (YAR) to show something most people don't consider when they talk about how great Davis was at his peak: he played against some really hard schedules. In 1997, Kansas City was fifth in run defense DVOA while San Diego ranked seventh. Three of the four teams that ranked above Kansas City were also on the Broncos schedule (Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Buffalo). The following year, 1998, San Diego had the league's best run defense and although Kansas City dropped to 15th, Oakland improved to third.

Let's move on to running backs as receivers, starting with the best DVOA seasons for running backs with at least 25 passes.

Best RB Seasons in Receiving DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 25 passes)
Year	Player	Team	DVOA	DYAR	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
2004	Larry Johnson	KC	72.2%	145	28	22	278	2	79%
1999	Marshall Faulk	STL	70.9%	451	104	87	1,048	5	84%
1997	Jamal Anderson	ATL	68.1%	144	37	29	284	3	78%
1996	Jerris McPhail	MIA	67.5%	119	29	20	282	0	69%
2003	Travis Fisher	GB	67.0%	94	25	21	206	2	84%
1997	Brian Mitchell	WAS	63.7%	190	50	36	438	1	72%
1997	Larry Bowie	WAS	60.6%	172	40	34	388	2	85%
1997	Bernie Parmalee	MIA	59.1%	147	35	28	301	1	80%
1998	Marshall Faulk	IND	58.3%	408	105	86	908	4	82%
2001	James Stewart	DET	57.2%	110	26	23	242	1	88%

Hey, that Larry Johnson guy is pretty good. Johnson's 2004 receiving resume features a 30-yard gain on second-and-16 and a 14-yard touchdown on fourth-and-2. He gained at least eight yards on more than half of his passes -- not half the completions, but half the passes, period. And hey, who knew that Jamal Anderson was such a good pass receiver? He caught six passes on third down and moved the chains five times, including twice on third-and-11.

Here's a list of the best running backs who were a little more important to the passing game, with a minimum of 50 passes. This might as well just be called the "Marshall Faulk" list... or should that be the "Ronnie Harmon" list?

Best RB Seasons in Receiving DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 50 passes)
Year	Player	Team	DVOA	DYAR	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
1999	Marshall Faulk	STL	70.9%	451	104	87	1,048	5	84%
1997	Brian Mitchell	WAS	63.7%	190	50	36	438	1	72%
1998	Marshall Faulk	IND	58.3%	408	105	86	908	4	82%
1995	Dorsey Levens	GB	55.1%	224	57	48	434	4	84%
1996	Ronnie Harmon	HOU	51.6%	209	59	42	488	2	71%
2002	Charlie Garner	OAK	51.3%	405	110	91	941	4	83%
1995	Ronnie Harmon	SD	50.5%	284	87	61	651	5	70%
2001	Marshall Faulk	STL	47.7%	363	103	83	765	9	81%
2002	Priest Holmes	KC	45.6%	267	81	70	672	3	86%
1995	Larry Centers	ARI	45.6%	368	119	101	962	2	85%

Harmon was sort of the Reggie Bush of his era, complete with a massive high-profile Rose Bowl failure. I wonder what we're going to get when we go back to his 1992 season, when he had 79 receptions for 914 yards. By the time we hit the DVOA Era, Harmon isn't getting quite as much playing time as he once did, which means that the list of the top receiving DYAR seasons is dominated even further by Marshall Faulk.

Best RB Seasons in Receiving DYAR, 1995-2007
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
1999	Marshall Faulk	STL	451	70.9%	104	87	1048	5	84%
1998	Marshall Faulk	IND	408	58.3%	105	86	908	4	82%
2002	Charlie Garner	OAK	405	51.3%	110	91	941	4	83%
1995	Larry Centers	ARI	368	45.6%	119	101	962	2	85%
2000	Marshall Faulk	STL	367	42.1%	113	81	830	8	72%
2001	Marshall Faulk	STL	363	47.7%	103	83	765	9	81%
1996	Larry Centers	ARI	284	23.9%	130	99	766	7	76%
1995	Ronnie Harmon	SD	284	50.5%	87	61	651	5	70%
2006	Reggie Bush	NO	272	22.4%	122	81	748	2	68%
2002	Priest Holmes	KC	267	45.6%	81	70	672	3	86%

That brings us to the grand enchilada, the list of the top overall running back seasons in DYAR. As always, be aware that a rushing "yard above replacement" does not necessarily signify the same amount of running back value as a receiving "yard above replacement," since neither one really represents the running back doing something all by himself. When we add them together, we assume they are equal, but we can't know for sure at this point. It's fun though, isn't it?

Best RB Seasons in Total DYAR, 1995-2007
Year	Player	Team	Run DYAR	Runs	RuYd	RuTD	Rec DYAR	Pass	RcYd	RcTD	Catch Rate	Tot DYAR
2000	Marshall Faulk	STL	473	253	1,359	18	367	113	830	8	72%	840
2002	Priest Holmes	KC	539	313	1,615	21	267	81	672	3	86%	806
2003	Priest Holmes	KC	480	320	1,420	27	254	90	690	0	82%	734
1999	Marshall Faulk	STL	279	253	1,381	7	451	104	1,048	5	84%	731
2001	Marshall Faulk	STL	297	260	1,382	12	363	103	765	9	81%	660
2002	Charlie Garner	OAK	254	182	978	7	405	110	941	4	83%	659
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	453	348	1,815	28	139	80	508	3	69%	592
1998	Terrell Davis	DEN	542	392	2,008	21	41	38	217	2	66%	582
1998	Marshall Faulk	IND	163	324	1,319	6	408	105	908	4	82%	572
2005	Larry Johnson	KC	468	336	1,750	20	102	49	343	1	67%	570
Year	Player	Team	Run DYAR	Runs	RuYd	Ru TD	Rec DYAR	Pass	RcYd	Rc TD	Catch Rate	Tot DYAR
2005	Tiki Barber	NYG	342	357	1,864	9	209	70	530	2	77%	551
2002	Clinton Portis	DEN	429	273	1,508	15	114	48	364	3	69%	543
2001	Priest Holmes	KC	380	327	1,555	8	160	75	614	2	83%	539
2000	Edgerrin James	IND	327	387	1,718	13	201	87	594	5	72%	528
2007	Brian Westbrook	PHI	334	278	1,333	7	189	120	771	6	75%	524
2003	Ahman Green	GB	362	355	1,886	15	142	60	366	5	83%	503
2005	Edgerrin James	IND	352	360	1,506	13	143	50	337	1	88%	495
2004	Edgerrin James	IND	307	334	1,551	9	175	60	483	0	85%	482
2004	Curtis Martin	NYJ	415	370	1,685	12	54	50	248	2	84%	469
1997	Terrell Davis	DEN	500478	369	1,743	15	-10	57	287	0	74%	468

Once again it seems like this list is severely lacking in performances from the 20th century, but that's partly a coincidence that comes from cutting the list at a round number. Emmitt Smith in 1995 [7] is 21st in combined value, and Barry Sanders in 1997 [8] is 23rd.

You have to wonder if Marshall Faulk is going to get screwed by those NFL "Team of the Decade" lists -- his peak happened to come right around the turn of the century, with four of the top ten seasons in combined DYAR, but they don't have an NFL "Team of Two Consecutive Half-Decades After 1995." Nobody should be surprised that Faulk leads the list of career combined rushing and receiving DYAR. He also leads the list of career combined rushing and receiving DYAR per season (minimum four seasons with at least 25 carries).

Best RB in Total Career DYAR, 1995-2007
Player	Years	Run DYAR	Player	Years	Rec DYAR	Player	Years	Tot DYAR
Priest Holmes	9	1,969	Marshall Faulk	11	1,948	Marshall Faulk	11	3,422
LaDainian Tomlinson	7	1,653	Larry Centers	9	1,381	Priest Holmes	9	2,692
Terrell Davis	7	1,572	Tiki Barber	10	1,147	Tiki Barber	10	2,244
Marshall Faulk	11	1,475	Charlie Garner	10	1,044	Edgerrin James	9	2,017
Edgerrin James	9	1,354	Brian Westbrook	6	891	Charlie Garner	10	2,013
Corey Dillon	10	1,327	Warrick Dunn	11	779	LaDainian Tomlinson	7	1,993
Fred Taylor	10	1,247	Dorsey Levens	10	773	Brian Westbrook	6	1,779
Clinton Portis	6	1,192	Priest Holmes	9	723	Terrell Davis	7	1,679
Curtis Martin	11	1,158	Amp Lee	4	717	Corey Dillon	10	1,617
Jerome Bettis	11	1,150	Kevin Faulk	9	685	Fred Taylor	10	1,591

In case you needed another reminder of the brevity of a running back's career, here's a fun fact: Brett Favre has qualified for our DYAR rankings in every single year of the DVOA Era, 13 straight seasons. Steve McNair has qualified in 12 seasons and almost qualified in a 13th (87 passes). On the other hand, no running back has even 25 carries in all 13 years. The longest career for a running back in the DVOA Era, measured by consecutive seasons of 25 or more carries, is 11 years. Only two of those players, Jerome Bettis and Curtis Martin, had 100 carries in all 11 years.

And the award for surprise appearance on the career DYAR lists goes to... Amp Lee. Seriously, Amp Lee? Actually, yes, Amp Lee was a receiving force for a few years in the mid-nineties. The 49ers took him in the second round of the 1992 draft and he was a rookie at the tender age of 21. Even though he fit the San Francisco mold of backs who excelled as receivers, he moved on to Minnesota after two years. (Does anyone know why? I couldn't find information on whether this was a trade or Plan B free agency.) Lee was in Minnesota for three years and then really blossomed in St. Louis. In 1997 and 1998 he was basically Dick Vermeil's prototype for what Marshall Faulk would be from 1999 through 2002. However, once Faulk showed up, Lee couldn't get playing time. He had three catches in 1999, then one for the Eagles in 2000, and was out of the league at the age of 29.

Best RB in DYAR per Season, 1995-2007 (min. 4 seasons)
Player	Years	Run DYAR	Player	Years	Rec DYAR	Player	Years	Tot DYAR
LaDainian Tomlinson	7	236.2	Amp Lee	4	179.3	Marshall Faulk	11	311.1
Terrell Davis	7	224.5	Marshall Faulk	11	177.1	Priest Holmes	9	299.1
Priest Holmes	9	218.8	Larry Centers	9	153.4	Brian Westbrook	6	296.5
Barry Sanders	4	211.2	Brian Westbrook	6	148.6	LaDainian Tomlinson	7	284.7
Clinton Portis	6	198.7	Tiki Barber	10	114.7	Larry Johnson	5	254.8
Larry Johnson	5	183.8	Charlie Garner	10	104.4	Clinton Portis	6	251.6
Edgerrin James	9	150.4	Terry Kirby	5	102.2	Barry Sanders	4	246.3
Brian Westbrook	6	148.0	Jamal Anderson	6	83.0	Terrell Davis	7	239.9
Marshall Faulk	11	135.9	Priest Holmes	9	80.3	Tiki Barber	10	224.4
Rudi Johnson	5	135.5	Brian Mitchell	6	79.6	Edgerrin James	9	224.2

Next week, we'll look at the worst running back seasons and careers; however, we didn't wait to post all the running back stats all the way back to 1995 [7]. Just don't go giving away the "worst running back seasons" secrets in the discussion thread...