Fifth Anniversary Special: Worst RB Seasons, 95-07

by Aaron Schatz

In honor of our fifth anniversary, we're running a series of articles looking at the best and worst players in the history of our advanced stats, DVOA and DYAR. If you are unfamiliar with our advanced stats -- perhaps you are a new reader visiting our website for the first time after picking up a copy of Pro Football Prospectus 2008 [1] -- you can read all about them here [2]. The series so far:

Before we get going, a quick note: I discovered a handful of errors in the rushing totals from 1997. I've gone back to the past articles and retroactively made any necessary changes, and I'll be changing the 1997 numbers on the site soon. It's only a handful of plays, not a big deal.

Let's look at the worst rushing DVOA seasons, minimum 100 carries.

Worst RB Seasons in Rushing DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 100 carries)
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Runs	Yards	TD	FUM	Suc Rate
1998	Lamar Smith	NO	-158	-39.7%	138	453	1	3	31%
2002	Jonathan Wells	HOU	-229	-38.1%	197	536	3	3	28%
1996	Tyrone Wheatley	NYG	-143	-38.1%	112	392	1	5	41%
1997	Darnell Autry	CHI	-119	-35.8%	112	319	1	2	34%
2005	Marcel Shipp	ARI	-169	-34.6%	157	459	0	4	41%
1999	Warrick Dunn	TB	-171	-32.4%	195	616	0	3	32%
2004	Anthony Thomas	CHI	-106	-30.5%	122	404	2	1	40%
2001	Lamar Smith	MIA	-276	-30.1%	313	968	6	4	39%
1997	Larry Centers	ARI	-88	-28.9%	101	276	1	1	34%
2000	Darnell Autry	PHI	-93	-28.6%	112	334	3	2	41%

If that guy was your main running back, wouldn't you consider trading your entire draft for Ricky Williams too? The Saints gave 50 carries to two other running backs, Ray Zellars (-45.7% DVOA in 56 carries) and Troy Davis (-38.1% DVOA in 55 carries). I would say, "maybe it was the offensive line's fault," except that the 1998 Saints had Willie Roaf at left tackle. Seriously. The line also included Chris Naeole and Kyle Turley. That's not a bad line.

From this list, we also learn that Darnell Autry was not exactly meant to be an NFL star, and that handing the ball to Larry Centers instead of throwing the ball to him is not good strategy.

Like we did with the best running back seasons, we'll also look at the worst DVOA ratings for backs with at least 240 carries, or 15 per game. These are guys who started the whole season and were still awful.

Worst RB Seasons in Rushing DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 250 carries)
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Runs	Yards	TD	FUM	Suc Rate
2001	Lamar Smith	MIA	-276	-30.1%	313	968	6	4	39%
2001	Eddie George	TEN	-234	-27.9%	315	961	5	8	34%
1999	Ricky Williams	NO	-169	-24.9%	253	890	2	6	43%
1996	Rodney Hampton	NYG	-173	-24.6%	254	827	1	3	41%
2005	Jamal Lewis	BAL	-161	-23.1%	270	903	3	6	41%
1995	Garrison Hearst	ARI	-169	-22.7%	282	1067	1	10	44%
2000	Jamal Anderson	ATL	-163	-22.2%	282	1029	6	6	42%
1999	Terry Allen	NE	-119	-19.6%	254	897	8	7	40%
1999	Curtis Enis	CHI	-117	-18.3%	286	909	3	3	43%
2002	William Green	CLE	-96	-18.0%	243	889	6	3	42%

Notice anything about the two seasons that top each list? Yes, both seasons came from Lamar Smith, but that's not all. Both seasons were so bad that the team in question felt the uncontrollable urge to acquire Ricky Williams. And hey... there's Ricky Williams, third on this list. In between them is Eddie George, the year he got clobbered by the Curse of 370.

Jamal Anderson (2000) and Jamal Lewis (2005) are partly on this list because of poor performance against an easy schedule, but their schedule adjustment isn't anywhere near as big as the one for Rodney Hampton of the 1996 Giants.. Washington was last in the league in DVOA for run defense, and no team in the NFC East was higher than 14th (Dallas). The Giants also played the teams ranked 28th (Minnesota) and 29th (Detroit).

On to success rate... Only six running backs during the DVOA Era had at least 100 carries and were successful less than one-third of the time. Here they are:

Worst RB Seasons in Success Rate, 1995-2007 (min. 100 carries)
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Runs	Yards	TD	FUM	Suc Rate
2005	Kevan Barlow	SF	-103	-23.9%	176	581	3	1	27%
2002	Jonathan Wells	HOU	-229	-38.1%	197	536	3	3	28%
1998	Lamar Smith	NO	-158	-39.7%	138	453	1	3	31%
1999	Warrick Dunn	TB	-171	-32.4%	195	616	0	3	32%
2002	James Allen	HOU	-64	-19.2%	155	519	0	1	33%
1999	Natrone Means	SD	-62	-22.9%	112	277	4	0	33%

Finally, here are the worst overall rushing seasons since 1995, based on rushing DYAR.

Worst RB Seasons in Rushing DYAR, 1995-2007
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Runs	Yards	TD	FUM	Suc Rate
2001	Lamar Smith	MIA	-276	-30.1%	313	968	6	4	39%
2001	Eddie George	TEN	-234	-27.9%	315	961	5	8	34%
2002	Jonathan Wells	HOU	-229	-38.1%	197	536	3	3	28%
2001	Marvel Smith	ATL	-174	-25.6%	237	760	5	1	36%
1996	Rodney Hampton	NYG	-173	-24.6%	254	827	1	3	41%
1999	Warrick Dunn	TB	-171	-32.4%	195	616	0	3	32%
2005	Marcel Shipp	ARI	-169	-34.6%	157	459	0	4	41%
1999	Ricky Williams	NO	-169	-24.9%	253	890	2	6	43%
1995	Garrison Hearst	ARI	-169	-22.7%	282	1067	1	10	44%
2000	Jamal Anderson	ATL	-163	-22.2%	282	1029	6	6	42%
1998	Raymont Harris	GB	-132	-47.2%	79	228	1	3	38%

I had to add a special listing for Raymont Harris, who had the 15th worst DYAR ever in 1998 despite carrying the ball only 79 times. He had only two carries all year for more than six yards, and he only gained a first down once in 10 carries on third or fourth down.

Now, the worst running backs as receivers. Before we get into the numbers, it is fair to mention that the DYAR and DVOA stats for running backs as receivers are not as accurate as we would like when it comes to differentiating between a running back who is a poor receiver and a running back who is trapped in an offense that throws him a lot of dumpoff passes without giving him room to operate. Sometimes you'll see a team where all the backs have good receiving DVOA ratings, or poor receiving DVOA ratings, and you need to use your common sense to try to determine where the blame lies. (A good example would be the Bengals in recent years.)

Worst RB Seasons in Receiving DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 25 passes)
Year	Player	Team	DVOA	DYAR	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
1998	Gary Brown	NYG	-71.9%	-75	26	13	36	0	50%
1996	Adrian Murrell	NYJ	-56.5%	-81	34	17	81	1	50%
1997	Adrian Murrell	NYJ	-56.3%	-93	42	27	106	0	64%
2005	Rudi Johnson	CIN	-51.9%	-62	30	23	90	0	77%
1997	Erric Pegram	NYG	-46.9%	-50	29	21	90	0	72%
1996	Jerome Bettis	PIT	-46.3%	-57	32	22	122	0	69%
1995	Leonard Russell	STL	-44.2%	-43	31	16	89	0	52%
2004	Rudi Johnson	CIN	-44.2%	-42	28	15	84	1	54%
2001	Richard Huntley	CAR	-43.3%	-46	32	21	101	1	66%
2002	William Green	CLE	-42.8%	-47	27	16	113	0	59%

Running backs with a low receiving DVOA are often just guys with an extra fumble or two and a small sample size, but not Gary Brown. Brown's 1998 season is pretty remarkable -- he averaged 1.4 yards per pass and had a grand total of one first down as a receiver, with no fumbles. Adrian Murrell's 1997 season is a good example about how this is not all necessarily the running back's fault. Eight of his 27 catches were for zero yardage or less, so on a few of those, Jets quarterbacks were throwing him the ball while he was behind the line of scrimmage and covered. Ever hear of throwing the ball away? Maybe part of the reason Murrell had such a low catch rate is that he kept dropping balls he knew were destined for lost yardage anyway.

Murrell goes one-two when it comes to the wost receiving DYAR seasons by a running back, and he has a third season that's also in the top ten:

Worst RB Seasons in Receiving DYAR, 1995-2007
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
1997	Adrian Murrell	NYJ	-93	-56.3%	42	27	106	0	64%
1996	Adrian Murrell	NYJ	-81	-56.5%	34	17	81	1	50%
1995	Rodney Thomas	HOU	-79	-38.7%	58	39	204	2	67%
1998	Gary Brown	NYG	-75	-71.9%	26	13	36	0	50%
2005	Rudi Johnson	CIN	-62	-51.9%	30	23	90	0	77%
1995	Dave Meggett	NE	-61	-27.1%	84	52	334	1	62%
1996	Karim Abdul-Jabbar	MIA	-61	-38.3%	45	23	139	0	51%
1996	Clif Groce	IND	-60	-42.4%	32	13	106	0	41%
1999	Adrian Murrell	ARI	-59	-28.9%	71	49	336	0	69%
1996	Jerome Bettis	PIT	-57	-46.3%	32	22	122	0	69%

There's another one of those quirks because we currently use the same baselines for every season -- the list of the worst receiving DYAR for running backs is dominated by players from the 90's. Here's a similar list that starts in 2001:

Worst RB Seasons in Receiving DYAR, 2001-2007
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
2005	Rudi Johnson	CIN	-62	-51.9%	30	23	90	0	77%
2002	Travis Fisher	GB	-52	-57.1%	22	18	70	0	82%
2002	Dee Brown	CAR	-50	-42.0%	33	17	86	1	52%
2002	Troy Hambrick	DAL	-50	-58.7%	24	21	99	0	88%
2001	Dominic Rhodes	IND	-49	-30.2%	55	34	224	0	62%
2007	Warrick Dunn	ATL	-48	-29.6%	59	37	238	0	63%
2002	William Green	CLE	-47	-42.8%	27	16	113	0	59%
2001	Richard Huntley	CAR	-46	-43.3%	32	21	101	1	66%
2001	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	-46	-25.0%	74	59	367	0	80%
2006	Chris Brown	TEN	-45	-82.8%	9	2	4	0	22%

Chris Brown: -45 DYAR on just nine pass attempts. Not bad. Here's the list of the worst overall DYAR seasons for running backs:

Worst RB Seasons in Total DYAR, 1995-2007
Year	Player	Team	Run DYAR	Runs	RuYd	RuTD	Run FUM	Rec DYAR	Pass	RcYd	RcTD	Catch Rate	Tot DYAR
2002	Jonathan Wells	HOU	-229	197	536	3	3	-1	12	48	0	75%	-230
2001	Lamar Smith	MIA	-276	313	968	6	4	46	35	234	2	86%	-229
1999	Ricky Williams	NO	-169	253	890	2	6	-37	40	172	0	70%	-206
1999	Adrian Murrell	ARI	-146	193	553	0	2	-59	71	336	0	69%	-205
1996	Rodney Hampton	NYG	-173	254	827	1	3	-15	22	82	0	68%	-189
2001	Eddie George	TEN	-234	315	961	5	8	50	50	268	0	74%	-184
1995	Rodney Thomas	HOU	-81	248	930	5	5	-79	58	204	2	67%	-160
2005	Jamal Lewis	BAL	-161	270	903	3	6	3	44	191	1	73%	-158
2007	Warrick Dunn	ATL	-108	227	721	4	2	-48	59	238	0	63%	-156
2002	William Green	CLE	-96	243	889	6	3	-47	27	113	0	59%	-143

Poor Jonathan Wells got stuck on an expansion team, so that's not a surprising choice as the worst season. What's Lamar Smith's excuse? This was Smith's second year as the starter in Miami, and he wasn't that bad in his first year, with 77 rushing DYAR and 84 receiving DYAR in 2000.

That Warrick Dunn season helps to explain why the KUBIAK projection for Dunn is so low this year. He was miserably bad in 2006. Remember: Jerious Norwood had the best DVOA of any running back with at least 100 carries, running behind the exact same offensive line. This isn't Dunn's only poor season -- you may have noticed him above because in 1999 he had one of the worst rushing DYAR seasons, but he also had 255 receiving DYAR that same year.

Given how many of the lists above are topped by either Lamar Smith or Adrian Murrell, the identities of the running backs with the worst career numbers are probably not too hard to discern.

Worst RB in Total Career DYAR, 1995-2007
Player	Years	Run DYAR	Player	Years	Rec DYAR	Player	Years	Tot DYAR
Lamar Smith	8	-306	Adrian Murrell	7	-206	Adrian Murrell	7	-406
Darnell Autry	2	-212	Gary Brown	4	-121	William Green	4	-270
Adrian Murrell	7	-200	Donnell Bennett	5	-106	Troy Davis	3	-213
Leonard Russell	2	-192	William Green	4	-90	Ray Zellars	4	-175
William Green	4	-180	Tatum Bell	4	-83	Leonard Russell	2	-173
Troy Davis	3	-179	Troy Hambrick	4	-65	Lawrence Phillips	3	-161
Nick Goings	4	-178	Rudi Johnson	5	-65	Leeland McElroy	2	-144
Maurice Smith	1	-174	Erric Pegram	3	-64	Curtis Enis	3	-143
Jonathan Wells	3	-166	Clif Groce	1	-60	Jerald Moore	3	-131
LeShon Johnson	5	-164	Michael Wiley	3	-59	Darnell Autry	2	-127
(only includes seasons with >10 carries or >25 passes)

It's strange to see some guys on here with just one season, but sometimes you have one season so bad it actually makes the worst career totals list because most guys don't stick around for season after season of below-replacement performance (Well, except Lamar Smith and Adrian Murrell). Maurice Smith has one of the stranger careers in recent NFL history -- an undrafted free agent, he had 19 carries for the 2000 Falcons. In 2001, he replaced the injured Jamal Anderson and started 12 games. He had 237 carries but he was so bad that he never had another NFL carry after that. He had two games as a special-teamer in 2002 and that was the end of his NFL career.

As bad as Smith and Murrell were, they don't get to top the list of the worst running backs on a DYAR per season basis. That honor belongs to one of the great first-round busts of recent memory.

Worst RB in DYAR per Season, 1995-2007 (min. 4 seasons)
Player	Years	Run DYAR	Player	Years	Rec DYAR	Player	Years	Tot DYAR
William Green	4	-45.0	Gary Brown	4	-30.1	William Green	4	-67.4
Nick Goings	4	-44.5	Adrian Murrell	7	-29.5	Adrian Murrell	7	-58.0
Lamar Smith	8	-38.2	William Green	4	-22.4	Ray Zellars	4	-43.7
LeShon Johnson	5	-32.8	Donnell Bennett	5	-21.2	Sherman Williams	4	-29.1
Ray Zellars	4	-31.1	Tatum Bell	4	-20.8	Karim Abdul-Jabbar	4	-21.9
Sherman Williams	4	-30.5	Troy Hambrick	4	-16.3	LeShon Johnson	5	-19.1
Adrian Murrell	7	-28.6	Rudi Johnson	5	-13.0	Troy Hambrick	4	-15.9
Lamar Gordon	4	-25.8	Karim Abdul-Jabbar	4	-13.0	Gary Brown	4	-14.9
Lamont Warren	6	-25.0	Ray Zellars	4	-12.6	Anthony Thomas	7	-14.1
Robert Holcombe	5	-17.8	Michael Turner	4	-10.0	Nick Goings	4	-13.6
(only includes seasons with >10 carries or >25 passes)

If only Football Outsiders had been around a couple years earlier, perhaps we could have saved the Browns from their terrible mistake. If you have Pro Football Prospectus 2008, you've read an article in the back of the book on Speed Scores, our new stat that combines 40-yard dash time with weight to predict the success of rookie running backs. Since 1999, only two running backs were chosen in the first round of the draft despite a Speed Score below 100: Trung Canidate (99.3) and William Green (98.7).

Next up: the best and worst wide receivers and tight ends.