Fifth Anniversary Special: Best and Worst TE Seasons, 95-07

In honor of our fifth anniversary, we're running a series of articles looking at the best and worst players in the history of our advanced stats, DVOA and DYAR. If you are unfamiliar with our advanced stats -- perhaps you are a new reader visiting our website for the first time after picking up a copy of Pro Football Prospectus 2008 [1] -- you can read all about them here [2]. The series so far:

Today we finish things up with the best and worst tight end seasons and career totals. First, let's look at the top seasons in receiving DVOA, led by a very surprising name.

Best TE Seasons in Receiving DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 25 passes)
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
1999	Ricky Dudley	OAK	278	63.2%	59	39	555	9	66%
1998	Tony McGee [10]	CIN	128	57.5%	32	22	363	1	69%
1997	Troy Drayton [11]	MIA	194	53.0%	50	39	558	4	78%
1998	Tyrone Davis [12]	GB	110	47.7%	29	18	250	7	62%
1995	Mark Chmura [13]	GB	285	47.5%	74	54	679	7	73%
2002	Doug Jolley [14]	OAK	140	47.4%	37	32	409	2	86%
2003	Matt Schobel [15]	CIN	97	46.8%	30	24	332	2	80%
1997	Ken Dilger [16]	IND	119	45.1%	36	27	380	3	75%
1995	Ken Dilger [16]	IND	192	44.3%	55	41	624	4	75%
1998	Johnny McWilliams [17]	ARI	119	44.1%	33	26	284	4	79%

Yes, Ricky Dudley, who was particularly good on third down in 1999. He converted on 14 of 20 opportunities (including a Defensive Pass Interference), and averaged 14 yards per reception on those conversions. Dudley was so good that if we raise our minimum to 50 passes, he still ends up with the highest DVOA. However, most of the list is different.

Best TE Seasons in Receiving DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 50 passes)
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
1999	Ricky Dudley	OAK	278	63.2%	59	39	555	9	66%
1997	Troy Drayton [11]	MIA	194	53.0%	50	39	558	4	78%
1995	Mark Chmura [13]	GB	285	47.5%	74	54	679	7	73%
1995	Ken Dilger [16]	IND	192	44.3%	55	41	624	4	75%
2004	Jeb Putzier [18]	DEN	160	39.6%	54	36	572	2	67%
1998	Andrew Glover [19]	MIN	163	39.0%	59	35	522	5	59%
2007	Heath Miller [20]	PIT	194	38.9%	61	47	566	7	77%
1999	Ken Dilger [16]	IND	151	38.3%	51	40	479	2	78%
2001	Marcus Pollard [21]	IND	221	37.5%	73	47	739	9	64%
2004	Antonio Gates [22]	SD	325	32.5%	114	81	964	13	71%

Exactly ten tight ends have managed a catch rate above 80 percent with at least 25 passes. Two tight ends did it last year... and neither one is on the same team in 2008.

Best TE Seasons in Catch Rate, 1995-2007 (min. 25 passes)
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
2002	Doug Jolley [14]	OAK	140	47.4%	37	32	409	2	86%
1998	Christian Fauria [23]	SEA	75	20.8%	44	37	377	3	84%
2007	Ben Utecht [24]	IND	100	33.6%	37	31	364	1	84%
2004	Erron Kinney	TEN	58	18.9%	30	25	193	3	83%
1995	Andrew Jordan	MIN	1	-6.9%	32	26	183	2	81%
1995	Marv Cook	STL	-47	-29.8%	32	26	140	1	81%
1995	Irv Smith	NO	107	20.7%	53	43	443	3	81%
2006	Steve Heiden	CLE	24	0.7%	46	37	249	2	80%
2003	Matt Schobel [15]	CIN	97	46.8%	30	24	332	2	80%
2007	Marcus Pollard [21]	SEA	82	25.8%	35	28	273	2	80%

I don't know which is stranger:

Marcus Pollard, who is known for dropping passes, had a catch rate of 80 percent last year.
Marcus Pollard, who is known for dropping passes, still managed a catch rate of 80 percent at the advanced age of 35.
Marcus Pollard signed with the Patriots with the offseason, and couldn't make the team even though he had managed a 25.8% DVOA and a catch rate of 80 percent one year earlier at the age of 35.

Still, the oddity of Pollard's 2007 season can't even come close to the oddity of Marv Cook's 1995 season. That is not a misprint. Marv Cook had the sixth-highest catch rate of any tight end over the past 13 seasons and still had a miserable -29.8% DVOA. Cook caught 26 passes, but only five were for first downs or touchdowns. Only three of his receptions gained more than 10 yards. Perhaps his most unique reception: he caught the ball for a loss of three yards on third-and-5 in the red zone. Yikes.

Also strange: Doug Jolley [14] set the record for catch rate by a tight end as a rookie. The rest of his career, his catch rate was 58 percent or lower. What the hell happened to that guy?

By this point, you are probably asking yourself , "Where is Tony Gonzalez [25]?" The answer: All over this next table.

Best TE Seasons in Receiving DYAR, 1995-2007
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
2004	Tony Gonzalez [25]	KC	329	25.6%	148	102	1,258	8	69%
2004	Antonio Gates [22]	SD	325	32.5%	114	81	964	13	71%
2000	Tony Gonzalez [25]	KC	305	22.5%	150	93	1,203	9	62%
1995	Mark Chmura [13]	GB	285	47.5%	74	54	679	7	73%
1999	Rickey Dudley [26]	OAK	278	63.2%	59	39	555	9	66%
2007	Antonio Gates [22]	SD	278	30.0%	117	75	984	9	64%
1996	Shannon Sharpe	DEN	277	28.2%	117	80	1,062	10	68%
2005	Antonio Gates [22]	SD	270	22.1%	140	89	1,101	10	64%
2007	Jason Witten	DAL	256	21.1%	141	96	1,145	8	68%
1999	Tony Gonzalez [25]	KC	253	29.0%	108	76	849	12	70%
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
2003	Tony Gonzalez [25]	KC	240	26.7%	106	71	915	10	67%
2006	Tony Gonzalez [25]	KC	233	28.7%	104	73	900	5	70%
2001	Marcus Pollard [21]	IND	221	37.5%	73	47	739	9	64%
2003	Shannon Sharpe	DEN	220	28.8%	94	62	770	8	66%
2004	Jason Witten	DAL	218	20.7%	121	87	982	7	72%
2005	Jason Witten	DAL	217	31.2%	89	66	757	6	74%
1998	Ben Coates	NE	211	23.9%	95	67	668	6	71%
1997	Shannon Sharpe	DEN	211	21.7%	114	72	1,107	3	63%
1998	Shannon Sharpe	DEN	208	22.6%	107	64	768	11	60%
2001	Tony Gonzalez [25]	KC	207	18.3%	118	73	917	6	62%

How dominant is Gonzalez? Not only does he have six of the top 20 seasons, he also has the seasons ranked 21st (2007) and 27th (2005) in DYAR. You can definitely see with this table how a handful of tight ends dominate as the best receivers. Sixteen of the top 20 seasons belong to four players: Gonzalez, Antonio Gates [22], Jason Witten, and Shannon Sharpe.

Now let's move on to the worst tight ends of the DVOA Era...

Worst TE Seasons in DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 25 passes)
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
1998	Howard Cross	NYG	-117	-74.3%	29	13	90	0	45%
1996	Keith Cash	KC	-136	-67.4%	33	14	90	0	42%
2000	Marco Battaglia	CIN	-117	-58.3%	36	13	105	0	36%
2004	Tony Stewart	CIN	-82	-55.9%	25	10	48	1	40%
2003	Brian Kozlowski	ATL	-76	-48.7%	27	10	87	0	37%
1999	Mark Bruener	PIT	-100	-47.3%	35	18	176	0	51%
1999	Jed Weaver	PHI	-77	-46.3%	28	11	91	0	39%
2000	Terry Hardy	ARI	-124	-45.8%	45	27	160	1	60%
2004	Shad Meier	TEN	-98	-45.2%	36	25	127	2	69%
1996	Dwayne Carswell	DEN	-61	-44.8%	25	15	85	0	60%

Not only did Howard Cross catch only 13 passes in 1998, but he also fumbled two of those receptions. Cross had a first down on just one of 11 passes in opponent territory. Meanwhile, how about Tony Stewart in 2004? Only four of those ten catches were for five yards or more.

What happens when we raise the minimum to 50 passes?

Worst TE Seasons in DVOA, 1995-2007 (min. 50 passes)
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
2004	Boo Williams	NO	-142	-36.0%	75	33	362	2	44%
2006	Bubba Franks	GB	-87	-33.8%	53	25	234	0	47%
1998	Mikhael Ricks	SD	-144	-32.6%	85	30	450	2	35%
2000	Aaron Shea	CLE	-74	-30.5%	51	30	302	2	59%
2004	Ben Troupe	TEN	-72	-28.1%	54	33	332	1	61%
2004	Stephen Alexander	DET	-106	-28.0%	76	41	377	2	54%
1996	Ricky Dudley	OAK	-94	-27.9%	70	34	386	4	49%
1997	Lonnie Johnson	BUF	-88	-27.9%	63	41	340	2	65%
2002	Freddie Jones	ARI	-108	-27.3%	80	44	358	2	55%
1998	Freddie Jones	SD	-136	-26.5%	111	57	602	3	51%

Freddie Jones: Jedi Master of the three-catch, seven-yard stat line!

There's no need to run a table of the worst catch rates, since most of those seasons have already been listed. Only five tight ends have ever put up catch rates below 40 percent. Four are listed above; the fifth was Washington's Walter Rasby in 2001 (37 percent).

The list of the worst overall tight end seasons in receiving DYAR comes with a small asterisk. The lowest DYAR belongs to Mikhael Ricks, but Ricks was a tweener who is listed in many places as a wide receiver from 1998 to 2000. Right now, we have him coded in our database as a tight end. In reality, the worst tight end season belongs not to Ricks but to Boo Williams.

Worst TE Seasons in Receiving DYAR, 1995-2007
Year	Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Passes	Catches	Yards	TD	Catch Rate
1998	Mikhael Ricks	SD	-144	-32.6%	85	30	450	2	35%
2004	Boo Williams	NO	-142	-36.0%	75	33	362	2	44%
1998	Freddie Jones	SD	-136	-26.5%	111	57	602	3	51%
1996	Keith.Cash	KC	-136	-67.4%	33	14	90	0	42%
2000	Terry Hardy	ARI	-124	-45.8%	45	27	160	1	60%
2000	Marco Battaglia	CIN	-117	-58.3%	36	13	105	0	36%
1998	Howard Cross	NYG	-117	-74.3%	29	13	90	0	45%
1997	Jamie Asher	WAS	-114	-25.7%	99	49	474	1	49%
2002	Freddie Jones	ARI	-108	-27.3%	80	44	358	2	55%
1996	Howard Cross	NYG	-108	-40.5%	45	22	178	1	49%

Given how many of those top seasons belong to Tony Gonzalez [25], it's probably no surprise who leads all tight ends in career DYAR -- and by a huge margin. Look at things averaged out per season, however, and Gonzalez actually doesn't get the top spot.

Best TE in Career DYAR, 1995-2007
Total Career DYAR			DYAR/Season (min. 4 seasons)
Tony Gonzalez [25]	11	2,085	Antonio Gates [22]	5	217.8
Shannon Sharpe	9	1,411	Tony Gonzalez [25]	11	189.5
Antonio Gates [22]	5	1,089	Jason Witten	5	174.1
Jason Witten	5	871	Shannon Sharpe	9	156.8
Wesley Walls	9	786	Mark Chmura [13]	4	119.4
Marcus Pollard [21]	12	728	Wesley Walls	9	87.3
Frank Wycheck	9	567	Dallas Clark	5	77.4
Ken Dilger [16]	10	557	Chris Cooley	4	70.3
Tony McGee [10]	8	548	Jeremy Shockey	6	69.9
Mark Chmura [13]	4	478	Tony McGee [10]	8	68.6
(only includes seasons with 10+ pass targets)

It's only been a few years, but I think most people have forgotten how good Wesley Walls was in the late 90's. Seriously, though, Tony McGee [10]? Does anyone think of Tony McGee [10] as one of the top tight ends of the past few years? That seems really odd.

Finally, we'll finish up with the worst tight ends of the past dozen years.

Worst TE in Career DYAR, 1995-2007
Total Career DYAR			DYAR/Season (min. 4 seasons)
Howard Cross	5	-384	Howard Cross	5	-76.7
Marco Battaglia	6	-253	Greg DeLong	4	-48.1
Freddie Jones	8	-249	Marco Battaglia	6	-42.1
Terry Hardy	3	-211	Lonnie Johnson	5	-32.7
Greg DeLong	4	-193	Freddie Jones	8	-31.1
Mark Bruener	10	-176	Justin Peelle	5	-30.1
Lonnie Johnson	5	-163	Walter Rasby	5	-26.4
Justin Peelle	5	-150	Aaron Shea	4	-25.5
Stephen Alexander	8	-137	Hunter Goodwin	4	-24.2
Walter Rasby	5	-132	Mikhael Ricks	5	-22.0
(only includes seasons with 10+ pass targets)

Of course, this isn't really a list of the worst tight ends of the last dozen years. It's only based on receiving, and some of these players were known for blocking -- Mark Bruener, for example. On the other hand, Stephen Alexander was solely a receiving tight end, so what's his excuse?

I hope everyone enjoyed the series... All pages in the "JUST THE STATS" section are now updated back to 1995 at every position. I'll be doing a mailbag in the next couple of weeks, answering questions from the various comment threads of this series. Hopefully come January we can do a similar series with the best and worst postseason performances, and perhaps a list of the best and worst special teams performances next offseason.