Week 4 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

This week's DVOA ratings go up a bit early because of the Jewish holiday over the next couple days. They do not include the Monday night game between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, which gives the Ravens' number one ranking a big fat asterisk.

However, there is no big fat asterisk for Philadelphia's rating at number three. Yes, DVOA sees the Eagles as a top three team despite the fact that they are 2-2. In particular, it thinks the Eagles dominated last night's game despite losing it. Philadelphia has 31.2% DVOA for the game, while Chicago has -15.0% DVOA. Look closer at the standard numbers and it seems pretty obvious why. The Eagles outgained the Bears 4.5 yards to 3.0 yards on the average run. They outgained the Bears 5.4 yards to 4.7 yards on the average pass. They turned the ball over twice while the Bears turned it over four times. They were doomed by bad red zone efficiency, the fact that Chicago's turnover returns were much longer then their turnover returns, and Correll Buckhalter's inability to put the ball in the end zone.

As we often say, every team would rather come out of the game with a win instead of a higher DVOA rating, but going forward DVOA is the better predictor of how teams will play. The Eagles are not a 2-2 team, not in terms of quality. Here's a list of the top 2-2 teams since 1996 in terms of DVOA:

Year	Team	DVOA When 2-2	Final W-L
2001	PHI	41.8%	11-5
2008	PHI	38.5%	--
2003	TB	37.7%	7-9
2005	SD	36.4%	9-7
2000	PHI	33.6%	11-5
2000	DEN	31.5%	11-5
2005	SEA	29.3%	13-3
2006	KC	25.2%	9-7
2007	ARI	22.8%	8-8
1999	OAK	22.8%	8-8

This week, opponent adjustments begin to show up in DVOA, now at 40 percent strength. They will go up by 10 percent each week until we hit Week 10. We've also added our listings of schedule strength (both past and future) as well as "estimated wins" and week-to-week consistency (aka VARIANCE). Notable teams that are better than they look because of tough early schedules include Washington, Chicago, and Dallas. Notable teams with very easy schedules so far include Tennessee, Buffalo, and Atlanta.

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Some little site housekeeping nuggets... 2008 stats are now in the premium database through Week 3; however, a bug means that 2008 isn't actually listed in the dropdown menus. We hope to have that fixed soon. You can get to 2008 by choosing another year, then changing the year in the URL to 2008. All the past stats pages have now been moved over, although many of those also need the dropdown menus added. All the free 2008 stats pages should all be updated through Week 4 (except Monday Night Football) in a matter of minutes. I'm not sure when playoff odds will be up; probably not until Wednesday or Thursday, but with Baltimore and Pittsburgh's Monday night game included.

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through four weeks of 2008, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. They also include opponent adjustments, currently at 40 percent strength. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 40 percent of DAVE, and this year's DVOA makes up 60 percent. For teams with only three games played, that split is 55/45; for Baltimore, it is still 70/30.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: <team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	W-L	DAVE	RANK	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	BAL	60.6%	1	2-0	20.4%	4	8.9%	11	-52.9%	1	-1.2%	20
2	NYG	42.1%	2	3-0	22.3%	2	29.4%	3	-8.1%	8	4.6%	8
3	PHI	38.5%	3	2-2	36.4%	1	11.4%	8	-26.9%	3	0.2%	16
4	TEN	34.7%	4	4-0	19.8%	5	-0.3%	19	-39.3%	2	-4.2%	28
5	TB	23.8%	13	3-1	22.2%	3	-3.9%	20	-26.4%	4	1.3%	13
6	BUF	23.4%	5	4-0	8.2%	12	7.7%	13	-10.6%	6	5.1%	6
7	WAS	23.0%	16	3-1	10.1%	10	25.7%	4	-1.1%	13	-3.8%	26
8	DAL	19.8%	7	3-1	16.5%	7	31.8%	1	11.8%	24	-0.3%	17
9	PIT	16.2%	10	2-1	10.9%	9	-6.9%	24	-21.0%	5	2.1%	11
10	SD	15.1%	9	2-2	19.7%	6	18.3%	6	3.5%	17	0.3%	15
11	CHI	8.3%	15	2-2	4.1%	16	-4.6%	21	-7.2%	9	5.6%	5
12	CAR	8.3%	21	3-1	6.7%	15	8.2%	12	1.1%	16	1.1%	14
13	ATL	5.3%	6	2-2	-13.1%	26	11.0%	9	10.4%	22	4.6%	7
14	NO	4.3%	23	2-2	2.9%	18	19.4%	5	12.5%	25	-2.6%	22
15	DEN	4.2%	12	3-1	3.7%	17	31.1%	2	21.9%	29	-5.0%	29
16	ARI	3.5%	14	2-2	1.6%	19	11.9%	7	5.1%	18	-3.4%	25
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	W-L	DAVE	RANK	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	GB	2.7%	8	2-2	16.2%	8	-8.7%	25	-8.8%	7	2.5%	10
18	SF	1.7%	11	2-2	-10.1%	23	-5.2%	22	-4.1%	11	2.8%	9
19	MIA	1.1%	18	1-2	-11.2%	25	9.5%	10	0.5%	15	-7.8%	32
20	MIN	-0.7%	17	1-3	9.0%	11	-0.2%	18	-6.7%	10	-7.3%	31
21	SEA	-0.9%	19	1-2	8.1%	13	0.7%	17	-3.7%	12	-5.3%	30
22	OAK	-1.4%	20	1-3	-10.3%	24	-9.8%	27	-0.9%	14	7.6%	2
23	NYJ	-5.6%	26	2-2	-5.4%	22	1.3%	16	6.5%	20	-0.5%	18
24	JAC	-6.2%	25	2-2	0.5%	20	5.0%	14	17.5%	27	6.3%	3
25	IND	-12.8%	24	1-2	0.1%	21	1.9%	15	10.6%	23	-4.1%	27
26	NE	-14.7%	22	2-1	6.7%	14	-5.7%	23	20.4%	28	11.4%	1
27	CLE	-24.5%	28	1-3	-20.0%	27	-25.0%	30	5.7%	19	6.2%	4
28	CIN	-40.5%	27	0-4	-25.1%	29	-27.8%	31	9.7%	21	-2.9%	23
29	HOU	-46.0%	29	0-3	-22.3%	28	-9.2%	26	34.6%	30	-2.2%	21
30	KC	-47.0%	30	1-3	-34.9%	30	-29.5%	32	14.3%	26	-3.3%	24
31	STL	-60.4%	32	0-4	-47.2%	32	-18.1%	29	41.4%	31	-1.0%	19
32	DET	-67.2%	31	0-3	-42.2%	31	-12.9%	28	55.9%	32	1.6%	12

ESTIMATED WINS [2] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
VARIANCE [3] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	BAL	60.6%	2-0	71.7%	4.0	1	-12.2%	26	3.7%	11	12.0%	14
2	NYG	42.1%	3-0	52.8%	3.1	3	-19.5%	30	17.0%	1	16.8%	19
3	PHI	38.5%	2-2	49.6%	3.0	4	-4.1%	21	12.9%	2	20.2%	23
4	TEN	34.7%	4-0	41.8%	3.4	2	-23.4%	32	-11.2%	31	4.2%	7
5	TB	23.8%	3-1	21.9%	2.5	10	5.1%	12	-4.3%	23	18.6%	22
6	BUF	23.4%	4-0	30.6%	2.8	5	-17.2%	29	-7.1%	29	14.8%	18
7	WAS	23.0%	3-1	18.2%	2.7	6	17.4%	3	2.0%	13	8.4%	13
8	DAL	19.8%	3-1	18.2%	2.6	8	9.9%	8	12.5%	3	12.9%	16
9	PIT	16.2%	2-1	21.6%	2.7	7	7.1%	10	4.7%	7	7.2%	10
10	SD	15.1%	2-2	20.5%	2.6	9	1.4%	15	-3.7%	21	2.7%	3
11	CHI	8.3%	2-2	2.5%	2.5	11	14.4%	4	-16.6%	32	3.4%	6
12	CAR	8.3%	3-1	7.5%	2.3	12	7.0%	11	-0.1%	17	8.2%	11
13	ATL	5.3%	2-2	13.7%	1.8	24	-20.5%	31	3.9%	8	49.3%	31
14	NO	4.3%	2-2	3.0%	2.1	14	13.2%	6	-3.3%	20	6.4%	9
15	DEN	4.2%	3-1	11.2%	1.9	17	-7.2%	24	-1.9%	19	24.2%	26
16	ARI	3.5%	2-2	-1.6%	1.7	25	5.0%	13	-0.4%	18	23.2%	25
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	GB	2.7%	2-2	5.4%	2.1	15	-6.1%	23	-5.4%	25	18.3%	21
18	SF	1.7%	2-2	4.1%	2.0	16	-15.1%	28	0.8%	15	17.7%	20
19	MIA	1.1%	1-2	11.3%	1.5	27	-4.2%	22	-4.0%	22	62.4%	32
20	MIN	-0.7%	1-3	-5.0%	1.9	19	8.2%	9	-7.4%	30	8.3%	12
21	SEA	-0.9%	1-2	5.1%	1.8	22	-8.8%	25	6.6%	6	37.1%	29
22	OAK	-1.4%	1-3	-8.4%	1.9	18	-1.1%	19	0.8%	14	27.1%	27
23	NYJ	-5.6%	2-2	-6.0%	1.8	21	1.3%	16	-6.4%	27	12.5%	15
24	JAC	-6.2%	2-2	-10.6%	1.8	20	-0.2%	18	-5.4%	26	2.2%	2
25	IND	-12.8%	1-2	-14.3%	1.8	23	0.3%	17	-6.8%	28	0.2%	1
26	NE	-14.7%	2-1	-17.6%	2.2	13	-12.9%	27	0.6%	16	48.4%	30
27	CLE	-24.5%	1-3	-24.1%	1.5	26	14.0%	5	11.4%	4	22.0%	24
28	CIN	-40.5%	0-4	-45.9%	0.7	28	28.2%	1	2.7%	12	4.4%	8
29	HOU	-46.0%	0-3	-43.8%	0.5	29	11.2%	7	-4.9%	24	3.1%	5
30	KC	-47.0%	1-3	-33.3%	0.5	30	-1.7%	20	6.9%	5	31.3%	28
31	STL	-60.4%	0-4	-69.9%	0.0	32	25.8%	2	3.9%	10	14.5%	17
32	DET	-67.2%	0-3	-62.9%	0.1	31	2.4%	14	3.9%	9	2.9%	4

Worst DVOA Ever Watch

The Rams managed to work their way out of the "worst team ever" slot, but that's okay, they still rank as the worst defense ever measured through four games, if not four weeks.

WORST TOTAL DVOA AFTER WEEK 4			WORST DEFENSIVE DVOA AFTER WEEK 4
2000	CIN	-88.4%	2008	DET	55.9%
1999	CLE	-68.0%	2008	STL	41.4%
2001	WAS	-67.4%	2006	HOU	39.0%
2008	DET	-67.2%	2001	ARI	35.9%
2003	CHI	-66.4%	2008	HOU	34.6%
2006	TEN	-62.3%	2007	NYJ	34.0%
2008	STL	-60.4%	1998	PHI	33.9%
2002	CIN	-58.6%	2000	SF	33.8%
2005	HOU	-56.4%	2000	ARI	32.8%
1998	PHI	-55.8%	2001	BUF	29.6%
2007	NO	-53.8%	2005	HOU	29.2%
2001	BUF	-51.8%	2003	SD	27.5%
1996	TB	-50.5%	2006	TEN	26.7%
2006	OAK	-50.1%	2003	ARI	25.3%