FEI Week 7 Ratings

by Brian Fremeau

The Fremeau Efficiency Index principles and methodology can be found here [1]. Like DVOA, FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. Unlike DVOA, it is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. Like DVOA, it represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated from a privileged perspective (explained here [2]) and represents the likelihood that an Elite team (top-5) would post an undefeated record against the given team's opponents.

Now that enough game data is available, projected outcomes are no longer included in the FEI ratings. The following ratings are calculated from all FBS games played through Saturday, October 11. Only games between FBS teams are considered.

Rank	Team	Record	FEI	Last Week	vs. Top 10	vs. Top 40	GE	GE Rank	SOS	SOS Rank
1	Penn State	6-0	0.280	2	0-0	0-0	0.445	2	0.784	98
2	Missouri	4-1	0.257	1	0-1	0-1	0.295	11	0.533	41
3	Virginia Tech	4-1	0.257	5	2-0	2-1	0.065	41	0.343	8
4	Georgia Tech	3-1	0.256	7	0-1	1-1	0.219	17	0.490	33
5	Texas	6-0	0.252	8	1-0	1-0	0.469	1	0.638	69
6	Alabama	6-0	0.243	6	0-0	2-0	0.322	8	0.558	49
7	Oklahoma State	5-0	0.233	18	1-0	1-0	0.282	12	0.543	43
8	North Carolina	4-1	0.231	11	0-1	2-1	0.183	19	0.466	29
9	USC	4-1	0.227	4	0-0	1-0	0.310	9	0.771	95
10	Oklahoma	4-1	0.217	3	0-1	0-1	0.308	10	0.541	42
11	Georgia	4-1	0.215	12	0-1	1-1	0.124	25	0.424	19
12	Florida	5-1	0.214	9	0-0	0-1	0.351	6	0.637	68
Rank	Team	Record	FEI	Last Week	vs. Top 10	vs. Top 40	GE	GE Rank	SOS	SOS Rank
13	Vanderbilt	5-1	0.204	10	0-0	2-0	0.122	26	0.481	31
14	Wake Forest	4-1	0.200	14	0-0	2-1	0.079	32	0.516	38
15	South Carolina	4-2	0.194	21	0-0	2-2	0.075	34	0.302	7
16	Mississippi	2-3	0.193	15	0-0	1-3	0.024	50	0.256	4
17	Ball State	6-0	0.182	13	0-0	1-0	0.331	7	0.778	97
18	Texas Tech	4-0	0.179	16	0-0	0-0	0.365	5	0.887	114
19	Michigan State	6-1	0.178	26	0-0	3-1	0.175	20	0.563	52
20	Pittsburgh	4-1	0.159	23	0-0	2-0	0.072	37	0.634	66
21	Boise State	4-0	0.146	25	0-0	0-0	0.248	14	0.899	115
22	South Florida	4-1	0.133	31	0-0	1-1	0.156	22	0.685	81
23	Navy	3-2	0.129	34	0-0	2-1	-0.028	64	0.456	27
24	Iowa	3-3	0.121	29	0-0	0-3	0.133	24	0.502	34
25	Utah	6-0	0.114	22	0-0	1-0	0.239	15	0.809	105

The Week 7 FEI Ratings for all 120 FBS teams can be found here [3]. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found here [4].

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets haven't been ranked in the Associated Press top 25 since early September last season. Running a triple-option offense at a BCS conference school in the 21st century under new coach Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech has defeated only three FBS teams. Last weekend, they ran up a whopping 10-7 victory over Gardner-Webb. What in the world are they doing at No. 4 in this week's FEI ratings?

First, the Gardner-Webb game, like all FCS games, isn't counted [5]. But even if I did include it, I would have to also include the Yellow Jackets' dominant victory over Jacksonville State back in August, so it would probably be a wash.

Second, the projected results have now been entirely eliminated, and team ratings from now on will exclusively reflect results on the field in 2008. Teams like Georgia Tech actually received a boost simply by eliminating the remaining dead weight of their more modest projected rating. Meanwhile, two projected heavyweights, USC and Florida, dropped somewhat in the rankings even after posting a solid victory last week. Why? Their respective opponents, Arizona State and LSU, have done little to nothing yet this season to meet their projected expectations, and most of their other opponents didn't help improve their profiles either.

Third, line up Georgia Tech's resume with, say, Georgia's and try to defend the Bulldogs' more lofty public perception. Georgia Tech handed Boston College its only loss of the year in Boston, and Georgia won at South Carolina. Georgia Tech steamrolled Mississippi State (1-4) and Duke (2-2), and Georgia let Arizona State (1-4) and Tennessee (2-4) hang in against them. Georgia Tech lost a squeaker to Virginia Tech (4-1) and Georgia had its doors blown off against Alabama (6-0).

This isn't to suggest that Georgia Tech will be running all the way to a BCS championship. More than likely, they are going to play well down the stretch, never get blown out, stick around the FEI top 20, and be one of those mild-mannered but dangerous three-or-so-loss teams in late November -- just in time for the Georgia game.

Going Undefeated

Texas meets Missouri Saturday night in Act II of Burnt October, a four-part consecutive week mini-series drama co-starring Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech, each of whom have dominated opponents outside their circle. The Longhorns are actually one of ten remaining undefeated teams through seven weeks this season, three more than any other year since 2003. Five of the ten are non-BCS teams (Ball State, Boise State, Utah, BYU, and Tulsa). From 2003 to 2007, only six total non-BCS teams remained undefeated through seven weeks. None of this year's five appear to be world-beaters, but its too early to tell if they'll be remembered like 2007 Hawaii (worst undefeated regular-season team in memory) or 2004 Utah (should have had a chance against the best).

BYU and Utah play each other at the end of the year, and Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State still must play a round robin. Therefore, only seven of the ten current undefeated teams can mathematically run the table. How likely is it to happen for any of them? The table below shows each team's likelihood of winning all of its remaining scheduled games (possible conference title games and bowl games are not figured into the equation), as a function of the current FEI ratings and the Projected Win Expectation (PWE) model.

Likelihood of Remaining Undefeated
FEI Rank	Team	W-L	Liklihood Pct.
21	Boise State	4-0	73.0%
1	Penn State	6-0	50.3%
6	Alabama	6-0	47.1%
17	Ball State	6-0	46.7%
25	Utah	6-0	33.2%
37	Tulsa	5-0	24.0%
5	Texas	6-0	15.2%
7	Oklahoma State	5-0	14.0%
35	BYU	5-0	8.1%
18	Texas Tech	4-0	2.6%

Through seven weeks last year, Hawaii had only a 10.6 percent chance of winning out. Combined, FEI expected one or two of the six remaining undefeated teams in 2007 to succeed in doing so, and only the Warriors were able to pull it off. This year, FEI expects three of the remaining ten to complete a perfect regular season.

BCS Eve

This Sunday, the first BCS Ratings of 2008 will be released. You can count on the following to be mentioned ad nauseum by the talking heads next week: The number one team in the first BCS ratings has appeared in the BCS championship game in each of the last five seasons. Its a coveted spot, for sure. What you might not hear from the talking heads is that four of those front-runners lost the BCS championship game, and the eventual national champion has been ranked outside the BCS first-release top 5 twice in five years.

BCS Champions Through Week Seven, 2003-2007
Year	Team	W-L	FEI Rank	BCS Rank
2007	LSU	6-1	1	4
2006	Florida	6-1	2	6
2005	Texas	6-0	3	2
2004	USC	6-0	1	1
2003	LSU	4-1	5	12

I'm pretty sure you won't hear from the talking heads that the BCS champion and the FEI No. 1 team at season's end has appeared in the Week Seven FEI Top 5 every year since 2003. Nine of the ten BCS championship game participants since 2003 have appeared in the Week Seven FEI Top 5 (Ohio State last season was No. 12 in Week 7, the lone exception).

The 2007 LSU Tigers held the FEI No. 1 ranking from Week Seven through the BCS championship game last year. Will Penn State match the same feat? Will this weekend's Missouri vs. Texas clash be only a precursor of a Big 12 championship matchup for a berth in the BCS title game? If the SEC and Big 12 are won by two-loss teams, could one of the under-the-radar ACC teams really sneak in? Or will both BCS participants emerge from outside this week's FEI top 5 for the first time ever? Five years of data is a trend, not a guarantee, Nittany Lions fans. But for the rest of the nation, fans everywhere can start wringing their hands now over another good chance at a BCS championship berth for the Big Ten.