FEI Week 10 Ratings

by Brian Fremeau

The Fremeau Efficiency Index principles and methodology can be found here [1]. Like DVOA, FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. Unlike DVOA, it is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. Like DVOA, it represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated from a privileged perspective (explained here [2]) and represents the likelihood that an Elite team (top 5) would post an undefeated record against the given team's opponents to date.

The following ratings are calculated based on data from all FBS games played through Sunday, November 2. Only games between FBS teams are considered.

Rank	Team	Record	FEI	Last Week	vs. Top 10	vs. Top 40	GE	GE Rank	SOS	SOS Rank
1	Florida	7-1	0.303	5	0-0	2-1	0.414	2	0.415	51
2	Penn State	8-0	0.293	2	0-0	2-0	0.389	3	0.548	72
3	Texas	8-1	0.288	1	1-1	3-1	0.349	5	0.248	15
4	North Carolina	5-2	0.263	3	0-0	3-2	0.161	17	0.345	33
5	USC	7-1	0.255	4	0-0	2-0	0.427	1	0.562	75
6	Alabama	9-0	0.238	6	0-0	2-0	0.318	8	0.504	65
7	Texas Tech	7-0	0.237	12	1-0	1-0	0.353	4	0.460	57
8	Georgia Tech	5-2	0.223	9	1-0	3-2	0.126	21	0.344	32
9	Oklahoma	7-1	0.218	10	0-1	2-1	0.323	7	0.380	42
10	Florida State	4-2	0.190	13	0-1	2-2	0.068	34	0.320	27
11	Virginia Tech	4-3	0.182	8	2-1	2-3	0.023	52	0.218	9
12	Oklahoma State	7-1	0.173	11	0-1	1-1	0.279	11	0.362	36
Rank	Team	Record	FEI	Last Week	vs. Top 10	vs. Top 40	GE	GE Rank	SOS	SOS Rank
13	Ohio State	6-2	0.172	15	0-2	2-2	0.088	26	0.195	7
14	Mississippi	4-4	0.171	17	1-1	1-4	0.036	49	0.154	4
15	Missouri	6-2	0.166	14	0-1	1-2	0.205	15	0.309	25
16	Georgia	6-2	0.156	7	0-2	2-2	0.041	47	0.176	6
17	Miami	5-3	0.154	21	0-3	3-3	0.033	50	0.125	3
18	Wake Forest	5-3	0.145	24	1-0	3-1	0.011	57	0.324	29
19	Vanderbilt	5-3	0.144	18	0-0	2-2	0.071	33	0.412	50
20	Ball State	7-0	0.143	20	0-0	0-0	0.327	6	0.852	119
21	Pittsburgh	6-2	0.143	22	0-0	1-0	0.071	32	0.561	74
22	Iowa	4-4	0.133	23	0-0	0-4	0.137	20	0.450	55
23	Northwestern	6-2	0.129	33	0-0	3-1	0.061	36	0.502	64
24	Michigan State	8-2	0.128	27	0-0	2-2	0.089	25	0.393	44
25	Connecticut	5-3	0.123	16	0-1	2-2	0.045	44	0.370	38

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADE) are the opponent-adjusted values of Offensive Efficiency (OE) and Defensive Efficiency (DE), explained here [3]. Like FEI, the multiple-order adjustments are weighted according to both the strength of the opponent and the relative significance of the result; efficiency against a team's best competition faced is given more relevance weight. AOE and ADE represent a team's value over/under average. Positive AOE and negative ADE are the most valuable.

Rank	Team	Record	AOE	AOE Rank	ADE	ADE Rank	OE	OE Rank	DE	DE Rank
1	Florida	7-1	0.411	7	-0.460	1	0.507	13	-0.587	3
2	Penn State	8-0	0.511	3	-0.405	5	0.539	12	-0.531	6
3	Texas	8-1	0.586	1	-0.308	16	0.963	1	-0.125	42
4	North Carolina	5-2	0.185	32	-0.441	3	-0.048	61	-0.359	14
5	USC	7-1	0.424	6	-0.376	9	0.566	9	-0.640	1
6	Alabama	9-0	0.373	8	-0.389	7	0.229	29	-0.630	2
7	Texas Tech	7-0	0.370	9	-0.361	11	0.940	2	-0.046	56
8	Georgia Tech	5-2	0.303	15	-0.217	27	0.023	48	-0.329	20
9	Oklahoma	7-1	0.540	2	-0.229	24	0.892	4	-0.097	48
10	Florida State	4-2	0.147	37	-0.187	35	-0.039	60	-0.173	37
11	Virginia Tech	4-3	-0.011	66	-0.302	18	-0.218	82	-0.111	46
12	Oklahoma State	7-1	0.306	14	-0.212	28	0.676	8	-0.058	54
Rank	Team	Record	AOE	AOE Rank	ADE	ADE Rank	OE	OE Rank	DE	DE Rank
13	Ohio State	6-2	0.057	53	-0.405	4	-0.177	73	-0.414	9
14	Mississippi	4-4	0.293	17	-0.223	26	-0.010	51	-0.121	44
15	Missouri	6-2	0.438	5	-0.062	60	0.755	6	0.136	83
16	Georgia	6-2	0.330	11	-0.162	41	0.117	40	-0.095	49
17	Miami	5-3	0.070	50	-0.004	66	-0.198	77	-0.071	52
18	Wake Forest	5-3	-0.248	96	-0.441	2	-0.367	107	-0.224	33
19	Vanderbilt	5-3	-0.020	69	-0.400	6	-0.211	81	-0.317	22
20	Ball State	7-0	0.285	19	-0.250	21	0.769	5	-0.254	27
21	Pittsburgh	6-2	0.307	13	-0.250	21	0.769	5	-0.254	27
22	Iowa	4-4	0.009	61	-0.385	8	-0.037	59	-0.465	7
23	Northwestern	6-2	0.273	21	-0.169	39	-0.029	56	-0.237	30
24	Michigan State	8-2	0.158	35	-0.144	44	-0.069	64	-0.157	39
25	Connecticut	5-3	0.084	48	-0.335	14	-0.026	54	-0.304	23

The Week 10 FEI Ratings for all 120 FBS teams can be found here [4]. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found here [5].

Florida takes over the top spot in the Week 10 FEI Ratings after stomping Georgia in Jacksonville. The Gators are the seventh team to hold the FEI No. 1 spot this season, a position that has changed hands five times in the last six weeks. Six weeks ago [6], we were eagerly anticipating the first game of five regular season match-ups between the four SEC "powerhouses" -- Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Alabama -- all ranked in the FEI top 8 through week four of the season. Four of those five games are now in the books, none of them were particularly close, and the Gators currently stand atop their mini-tournament standings at 2-0, blowing out both the Bulldogs and Tigers. Alabama will have their opportunity to match the Gators' feat this Saturday in Baton Rouge, and will likely face Florida for the SEC title in December.

No. 3 Texas lost the game of the year in Lubbock Saturday night, and has mercifully closed its own mini-tournament, going 3-1 in four straight weeks against the FEI No. 7 (Texas Tech), No. 9 (Oklahoma), No. 12 (Oklahoma State), and No. 15 (Missouri) teams. Among the top five teams in the Big 12, eight total regular season games will ultimately be played this year. Of the five in the books, only one was decided by more than a single possession, Texas' 56-31 obliteration of Missouri on October 18.

The Red Raiders' thrilling win over the Longhorns launched them into the BCS title game conversation, but it was Texas Tech's first game against an FEI top 40 opponent this season. The Big 12 South driver's seat is theirs, but after a brutal month, Texas is probably happy to hand over the keys. Riding shotgun might be the best BCS position in early November.

A few weeks ago [7], I calculated the likelihood that each of the ten then-undefeated teams would run the table through the remainder of the year. Let's revisit that table, including the six remaining undefeated teams plus the seven one-loss teams waiting at the BCS doorstep. The likelihood is a function of the Projected Win Expectation of each team in each match-up, based on the current FEI ratings for each team. Teams listed with an asterisk may possibly also play a conference championship game at season's end. Those possible games are not factored in the table.

Likelihood of Winning All Remaining Regular Season Games
FEI Rank	Team	W-L	Likelihood Pct.	Games Remaining	BCS Rank
3	Texas*	8-1	95.0%	Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M	4
26	Boise State	7-0	78.4%	Utah State, Idaho, Nevada, Fresno State	10
6	Alabama*	9-0	73.5%	LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn	1
5	USC	7-1	72.7%	California, Stanford, Notre Dame, UCLA	7
2	Penn State	8-0	69.5%	Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State	3
1	Florida*	7-1	55.5%	Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Citadel, Florida State	5
34	TCU	8-1	37.9%	Utah, Air Force	12
7	Texas Tech*	7-0	37.0%	Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor	2
20	Ball State*	7-0	36.5%	Northern Illinois, Miami (OH), Central Michigan, Western Michigan	17
37	Utah	8-0	34.1%	TCU, San Diego State, BYU	8
9	Oklahoma*	7-1	26.8%	Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State	6
62	BYU	7-1	12.3%	San Diego State, Air Force, Utah	15
12	Oklahoma State*	7-1	11.7%	Texas Tech, Colorado, Oklahoma	9

The five teams in the best position three weeks ago to remain undefeated have done exactly that. Texas Tech has improved its position, but is far from a sure thing the rest of the way, and Texas can probably count on some of the dominoes they need to fall. Penn State and USC are good bets to hang around while others struggle as well.

The six remaining undefeated teams don't play one another, so it is mathematically possible for all of them to run the table, however unlikely. The 13 teams listed above do play five more regular season games against one another, plus a probable sixth in the SEC championship. In short, even without dropping a game to someone outside the BCS top 15 (the group has already suffered two such defeats this year), the 13 teams listed above will have at least a combined 13 losses before bowl season.

As my colleague Russell Levine discussed in his column this week [9], projecting, dreading, and/or eagerly anticipating BCS chaos is the pastime of choice this time of year. Like Russell, I'm always surprised that the speculation usually focuses more on poll position than remaining schedule. An undefeated Penn State team could indeed be shut out of a title game opportunity if Texas Tech and Alabama also win out, but FEI projects only a 18.9 percent likelihood of that situation occurring. If undefeated Red Raiders and Crimson Tide teams meet Missouri and Florida in their respective conference championship games, the likelihood that all three current BCS conference undefeated teams remain unblemished prior to bowl season plummets to about 5 percent.

If only two BCS-conference teams remain undefeated and play for the championship, will chaos have been averted? In 2005, USC and Texas fit the bill and played an epic thriller for the national title, the only game played between the postseason FEI No. 1 and No. 2 teams since 2003. I am confident that there will be arguments this year, and we may indeed be careening toward an unprecedented debate over the merits of teams, conferences, and even conference divisions. I am less confident, but still hopeful, that the teams that do ultimately appear in the BCS championship game can at least match if not exceed the drama in Lubbock on Saturday night.