For two years, Devin Hester was an incomparable weapon on the football field, the greatest return man in NFL history. In 2008, he has basically disappeared. Has anybody noticed?
Hester had six return touchdowns in 2006, and six return touchdowns in 2007. He has zero so far in 2008. The Bears ranked number one in our special teams ratings in both 2006 and 2007. This year, they are 21st. Where Hester is concerned, the Bears are 15th in kick returns and a dismal 30th in his real specialty, punt returns.
Is Hester still such a weapon that he changes the opponent's kicking strategy? Commentators still talk as if he is, and there have been games this year where the other team obviously avoided kicking to Hester. (The Week 7 game against Minnesota is the best example.) However, most teams have stopped treating Hester as if he were far superior to the other good kick returners in the NFL, guys like Ellis Hobbs and Josh Cribbs and Ted Ginn.
Last year, the average kickoff to the Bears went just 54.3 yards. That was the lowest figure in our database, more than four yards below the second-lowest figure (the 2000 Bengals, 58.5). This year, the average kickoff to the Bears has gone 63.5 yards. That's not even the lowest figure in the league -- it ranks third, behind Cleveland and Miami.
Hester's longest punt return of the season so far is just 25 yards. Last year, Hester had eight returns over 25 yards, including four touchdowns. Chicago has only six punt returns of 10 yards or more, and three of those aren't even by Hester -- they are by Nathan Vasher. The average punt to Chicago is going more than two yards longer than the average punt to Chicago in 2007, showing that opposing punters are also less afraid to kick it deep to Hester this season.
It isn't like the Bears aren't getting any value from Hester. He's a starting receiver now, and he's gained 311 receiving yards with two touchdowns and 4.1% DVOA. Is all that time at receiver tiring him out so he can't be at his best in the return game? Did the Bears trade the greatest special teams weapon of all-time for a league-average wide receiver? Or is just evidence that Hester is subject to the same year-to-year swings in value that plague all the other return specialists?
After Hester's rookie season, we warned people not to expect another huge year in 2007. Return touchdowns are ridiculously inconsistent from year to year. Back-to-back seasons with two or more return touchdowns are rare. Hester went out and had back-to-back seasons of six. So after two years, we said, "Hmmm... maybe Hester is something new, something special -- a return man so good that he can consistently take it to the house every year."
We may have been right the first time.