FEI Week 12 Ratings

by Brian Fremeau

The Fremeau Efficiency Index principles and methodology can be found here [1]. Like DVOA, FEI rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. Unlike DVOA, it is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency, a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. Like DVOA, it represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule is calculated from a privileged perspective (explained here [2]) and represents the likelihood that an Elite team (top 5) would post an undefeated record against the given team's opponents to date.

The following ratings are calculated based on data from all FBS games played through Saturday, November 15. Only games between FBS teams are considered.

Rank	Team	Record	FEI	Last Week	vs. Top 10	vs. Top 40	GE	GE Rank	SOS	SOS Rank
1	Florida	9-1	0.309	1	0-0	3-1	0.460	1	0.413	59
2	North Carolina	6-3	0.290	3	1-0	6-3	0.153	17	0.171	10
3	Penn State	9-1	0.284	2	1-0	4-1	0.331	8	0.368	51
4	Texas	10-1	0.266	4	1-1	3-1	0.364	4	0.258	34
5	USC	9-1	0.266	6	1-0	3-1	0.397	2	0.442	64
6	Texas Tech	8-0	0.258	5	1-0	2-0	0.379	3	0.456	67
7	Oklahoma	8-1	0.217	8	0-1	2-1	0.337	6	0.392	55
8	Alabama	11-0	0.212	7	0-0	3-0	0.294	9	0.486	76
9	Ohio State	8-2	0.210	10	0-2	3-2	0.145	18	0.170	9
10	Georgia Tech	5-3	0.197	11	0-1	3-3	0.069	33	0.149	6
11	Boston College	6-3	0.193	19	0-2	3-3	0.077	30	0.145	5
12	Virginia Tech	5-4	0.189	12	2-0	3-4	0.034	45	0.125	4
Rank	Team	Record	FEI	Last Week	vs. Top 10	vs. Top 40	GE	GE Rank	SOS	SOS Rank
13	Florida State	5-3	0.188	9	0-1	3-3	0.055	37	0.210	21
14	Ball State	9-0	0.169	13	0-0	0-0	0.338	5	0.785	117
15	Iowa	6-4	0.159	14	1-0	2-3	0.126	19	0.246	33
16	Mississippi	5-4	0.159	17	1-1	1-3	0.110	21	0.199	15
17	Pittsburgh	7-2	0.158	15	0-0	2-1	0.099	23	0.479	73
18	Missouri	8-2	0.157	16	0-1	1-2	0.242	11	0.396	56
19	Miami	6-3	0.154	20	0-2	3-3	0.036	42	0.084	1
20	Wake Forest	6-4	0.138	18	0-0	4-2	0.018	53	0.277	39
21	Michigan State	9-2	0.134	22	0-1	3-2	0.104	22	0.345	45
22	Connecticut	6-3	0.133	21	0-1	2-3	0.073	31	0.275	38
23	Utah	10-0	0.129	25	0-0	2-0	0.262	10	0.680	105
24	Boise State	9-0	0.127	24	0-0	0-0	0.337	7	0.762	114
25	Georgia	8-2	0.121	23	0-2	1-2	0.049	41	0.216	26

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency are the opponent-adjusted values of Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency, explained here [3]. Like FEI, the multiple-order adjustments are weighted according to both the strength of the opponent and the relative significance of the result; efficiency against a team's best competition faced is given more relevance weight. AOE and ADE represent a team's value over/under average. Positive AOE and negative ADE are the most valuable.

Rank	Team	Record	AOE	AOE Rank	ADE	ADE Rank	OE	OE Rank	DE	DE Rank
1	Florida	9-1	0.433	5	-0.445	6	0.550	10	-0.661	1
2	North Carolina	6-3	0.223	24	-0.531	1	-0.082	62	-0.348	15
3	Penn State	9-1	0.512	3	-0.409	8	0.444	13	-0.488	6
4	Texas	10-1	0.506	4	-0.382	12	0.920	2	-0.197	29
5	USC	9-1	0.400	6	-0.446	5	0.478	12	-0.612	2
6	Texas Tech	8-0	0.565	2	-0.349	16	1.134	1	0.001	67
7	Oklahoma	8-1	0.568	1	-0.196	34	0.899	3	-0.133	44
8	Alabama	11-0	0.254	23	-0.397	11	0.115	38	-0.600	3
9	Ohio State	8-2	0.216	25	-0.453	4	0.016	51	-0.412	8
10	Georgia Tech	5-3	0.343	12	-0.289	20	-0.031	58	-0.283	20
11	Boston College	6-3	0.194	28	-0.484	2	-0.076	60	-0.460	7
12	Virginia Tech	5-4	0.027	61	-0.381	13	-0.213	85	-0.166	34
Rank	Team	Record	AOE	AOE Rank	ADE	ADE Rank	OE	OE Rank	DE	DE Rank
13	Florida State	5-3	0.284	18	-0.252	23	-0.025	55	-0.130	46
14	Ball State	9-0	0.334	14	-0.252	22	0.788	5	-0.308	18
15	Iowa	6-4	0.109	45	-0.464	3	-0.027	56	-0.398	9
16	Mississippi	5-4	0.272	20	-0.231	28	0.115	37	-0.224	27
17	Pittsburgh	7-2	0.358	11	-0.149	42	0.267	22	-0.035	58
18	Missouri	8-2	0.365	10	-0.088	50	0.741	6	0.068	76
19	Miami	6-3	0.099	50	-0.061	53	-0.206	82	-0.099	50
20	Wake Forest	6-4	-0.136	80	-0.404	9	-0.327	101	-0.178	31
21	Michigan State	9-2	0.203	27	-0.204	31	-0.107	64	-0.238	25
22	Connecticut	6-3	0.107	47	-0.363	14	-0.028	57	-0.357	13
23	Utah	10-0	0.129	41	-0.201	33	0.191	29	-0.362	11
24	Boise State	9-0	0.144	37	-0.216	29	0.442	14	-0.533	5
25	Georgia	8-2	0.385	8	-0.061	54	0.157	35	-0.090	52

The Week 12 FEI Ratings for all 120 FBS teams can be found here [4]. Expanded FEI Ratings data can be found here [5].

It started as an early-season eyebrow-raising fling with Virginia Tech that hardly seemed worth fretting over. But as the season progressed, FEI started hanging out more and more with the Atlantic Coast Conference, two-timing Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, texting North Carolina while canoodling Duke. It was clearly not healthy behavior, but what could be done? Florida State, Miami and Boston College? Oh please, not Clemson! With just a couple of weeks left in the college football regular season, FEI appears to be one or two drinks away from a trip to the tattoo parlor. It's time for an intervention.

The Tarheels lost their third game of the season and moved up from No. 3 to No. 2 in the FEI rankings. Why? Start by adding up the total margin of defeat in North Carolina's three losses: eight points. Then consider that all nine UNC opponents have overall records at or above .500 and all nine appear in this week's FEI top 40. Impressed? I didn't think so.

There must be a bug in the system, and it has to have something to do with North Carolina and the opponent adjustments, right?. As we saw three weeks ago [6], simply eliminating the conference from the books might be satisfactory, but we would certainly rather isolate and fix the problem than ignore it. So let's ask the following: Why does FEI think North Carolina is better than, say, undefeated Alabama?

Efficiency Breakdown: Alabama and North Carolina
Stat	Alabama	North Carolina
Offensive Efficiency	0.115 (38)	-0.082 (62)
Defensive Efficiency	-0.600 (3)	-0.348 (15)
FIeld Position Efficiency	0.181 (10)	0.309 (3)
STSE	-0.010 (66)	0.001 (50)
Opponent STSE	-0.032 (19)	-0.003 (63)
Game Efficiency	0.294 (9)	0.153 (17)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency	0.254 (23)	0.223 (24)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency	-0.397 (11)	-0.531 (1)
FEI	0.212 (8)	0.290 (3)

STSE and Field Position Efficiency were introduced and explained last week [7]. Overall, the unadjusted efficiency data favors Alabama as expected, but UNC isn't too far behind -- quite respectable for a three-loss team, in fact. Both teams hang their hat on defense and controlling field position, and both have blown open games on defensive and special teams return scores (calculated as part of FPE). But when we make the FEI opponent adjustments, the blemished ACC team jumps significantly ahead of the unblemished SEC team. That can't be right, can it?

Defensively, neither Alabama nor North Carolina have allowed more than 24 non-garbage points in a game this season, though neither team has been tested by a high-powered offense yet either. Alabama has held seven opponents to ten points or less, but five of those seven teams rate in the bottom third nationally in offensive efficiency. North Carolina's opponents aren't lighting up scoreboards either, but they have been eight percent more efficient offensively than Alabama's opponents. On defense, North Carolina's opponents are 11 percent stronger than Alabama's, and the Tarheels were most productive against the best of the bunch, Boston College. These numbers are useful when considering the two teams and two conferences, but they are hardly conclusive. What other factors are in play?

I mentioned in a comment a few weeks back that the schizophrenic nature of the conference might be vexing the formula. One measure of that chaos is "ranking violation," a retrodictive measure of the percentage of games played this season in which a team has lost to an opponent currently rated below it. ACC teams have accounted for 18 such occurrences in 106 total games played (17 percent), second only to Conference USA. Another measure is variance in adjusted game efficiency; as expected, Maryland (defeated California, lost to Middle Tennessee) and Virginia (crushed by USC, Duke and Connecticut, beat North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Maryland) lead the way nationally in that category.

An even bigger factor might be FEI's treatment of close games and blowouts. Average non-garbage margin of victory in ACC conference games this season is 9.6 points, a full touchdown less than the average non-garbage margin of victory in the other conferences. Virtually no one is getting blown out in the ACC, and as Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Missouri, LSU, Georgia, and more can attest, FEI will punish blowout losses swiftly. There is logic behind this strategy [9], but apparently the flip side of that coin means a tightly contested league will receive a broader boost than one that keeps beating down its opposition. An off-season FEI analysis will need to take a closer look at this.

Lastly, I mentioned this three weeks ago but it bears repeating: The ACC is leading the way in inter-conference play in 2008 whether we like it or not. They haven't slain any giants, but Miami did hold the Florida Gators to their lowest offensive output of the year, better than any SEC foe. But the real tests for the league are still ahead. If FEI is wrong about the ACC like we all believe it must be, then South Carolina, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Florida should have their way with Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Florida State. And if those four hold their own, well, we're all getting tattoos. Who's in?