These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2007, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.
As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST YEAR represents 2006 rank.
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
LAST YEAR |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | NE | 53.1% | 4 | 54.7% | 16-0 | 45.2% | 1 | -5.0% | 12 | 3.0% | 7 |
| 2 | IND | 30.7% | 7 | 30.2% | 13-3 | 24.3% | 2 | -12.3% | 2 | -5.9% | 32 |
| 3 | JAC | 23.7% | 5 | 20.8% | 11-5 | 21.9% | 3 | -1.8% | 15 | 0.0% | 15 |
| 4 | DAL | 22.9% | 9 | 25.8% | 13-3 | 17.4% | 4 | -5.8% | 11 | -0.4% | 18 |
| 5 | PIT | 20.0% | 10 | 22.5% | 10-6 | 9.6% | 9 | -11.8% | 3 | -1.4% | 21 |
| 6 | GB | 19.9% | 18 | 25.1% | 13-3 | 16.8% | 5 | -0.6% | 16 | 2.5% | 8 |
| 7 | SD | 18.4% | 1 | 16.7% | 11-5 | 5.8% | 14 | -8.2% | 6 | 4.3% | 5 |
| 8 | TB | 17.1% | 29 | 20.2% | 9-7 | 6.1% | 13 | -10.8% | 4 | 0.2% | 12 |
| 9 | SEA | 14.2% | 24 | 21.5% | 10-6 | 7.4% | 12 | -5.9% | 10 | 0.9% | 11 |
| 10 | PHI | 13.7% | 3 | 8.0% | 8-8 | 13.1% | 6 | -5.9% | 9 | -5.4% | 31 |
| 11 | TEN | 9.5% | 22 | 4.8% | 10-6 | -3.4% | 20 | -13.3% | 1 | -0.4% | 17 |
| 12 | CLE | 8.5% | 26 | 10.6% | 10-6 | 8.5% | 10 | 6.8% | 21 | 6.9% | 2 |
| 13 | WAS | 6.2% | 21 | -0.5% | 9-7 | -0.2% | 17 | -6.7% | 7 | -0.3% | 16 |
| 14 | CIN | 2.2% | 11 | 7.6% | 7-9 | 12.7% | 7 | 9.8% | 27 | -0.7% | 20 |
| 15 | MIN | 2.0% | 23 | 4.3% | 8-8 | 0.1% | 16 | 0.3% | 17 | 2.1% | 9 |
| 16 | NYG | 1.1% | 8 | -3.8% | 10-6 | -0.3% | 18 | -2.1% | 14 | -0.7% | 19 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
LAST YEAR |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | DEN | -1.1% | 15 | 2.0% | 7-9 | 10.3% | 8 | 7.0% | 23 | -4.4% | 28 |
| 18 | BAL | -3.9% | 2 | -10.8% | 5-11 | -12.7% | 25 | -8.7% | 5 | 0.1% | 13 |
| 19 | BUF | -5.8% | 19 | -9.8% | 7-9 | -8.9% | 22 | 1.0% | 18 | 4.2% | 6 |
| 20 | CHI | -5.8% | 6 | -8.8% | 7-9 | -21.3% | 30 | -6.0% | 8 | 9.5% | 1 |
| 21 | HOU | -6.3% | 30 | -11.2% | 8-8 | 2.0% | 15 | 14.2% | 30 | 5.9% | 3 |
| 22 | NO | -9.0% | 12 | -8.3% | 7-9 | 7.9% | 11 | 13.3% | 29 | -3.6% | 25 |
| 23 | ARI | -11.6% | 28 | -4.5% | 8-8 | -2.7% | 19 | 5.2% | 20 | -3.8% | 26 |
| 24 | NYJ | -16.7% | 17 | -18.2% | 4-12 | -9.0% | 23 | 9.1% | 26 | 1.4% | 10 |
| 25 | KC | -18.9% | 13 | -20.1% | 4-12 | -18.2% | 29 | -2.5% | 13 | -3.3% | 24 |
| 26 | CAR | -20.1% | 14 | -20.1% | 7-9 | -14.0% | 26 | 1.2% | 19 | -4.9% | 30 |
| 27 | MIA | -22.2% | 16 | -28.6% | 1-15 | -5.3% | 21 | 14.7% | 31 | -2.2% | 22 |
| 28 | ATL | -26.5% | 20 | -25.0% | 4-12 | -15.5% | 27 | 11.0% | 28 | 0.0% | 14 |
| 29 | OAK | -28.8% | 32 | -26.8% | 4-12 | -17.4% | 28 | 6.8% | 22 | -4.6% | 29 |
| 30 | DET | -29.2% | 31 | -29.3% | 7-9 | -9.5% | 24 | 16.7% | 32 | -3.0% | 23 |
| 31 | SF | -34.2% | 27 | -30.7% | 5-11 | -31.3% | 32 | 7.4% | 24 | 4.5% | 4 |
| 32 | STL | -34.9% | 25 | -32.5% | 3-13 | -22.0% | 31 | 9.1% | 25 | -3.9% | 27 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
2007 SCHED |
RANK |
PYTH WINS |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | NE | 53.1% | 16-0 | 14.3 | 1 | 42.9% | 1 | 1.9% | 10 | 13.8 | 1 | 13.6% | 14 |
| 2 | IND | 30.7% | 13-3 | 12.3 | 2 | 20.4% | 4 | 2.1% | 9 | 12.5 | 2 | 15.6% | 18 |
| 3 | JAC | 23.7% | 11-5 | 11.4 | 3 | 31.8% | 2 | 0.8% | 13 | 10.7 | 7 | 12.7% | 11 |
| 4 | DAL | 22.9% | 13-3 | 10.8 | 5 | 15.3% | 8 | -1.1% | 20 | 11.0 | 6 | 22.7% | 27 |
| 5 | PIT | 20.0% | 10-6 | 9.5 | 9 | 10.0% | 11 | -1.4% | 22 | 11.4 | 4 | 24.4% | 31 |
| 6 | GB | 19.9% | 13-3 | 10.9 | 4 | 18.6% | 5 | -6.7% | 29 | 11.5 | 3 | 23.2% | 28 |
| 7 | SD | 18.4% | 11-5 | 9.7 | 8 | 25.5% | 3 | -0.2% | 19 | 11.3 | 5 | 22.3% | 26 |
| 8 | TB | 17.1% | 9-7 | 10.1 | 7 | 10.0% | 10 | -8.9% | 30 | 10.0 | 9 | 23.9% | 29 |
| 9 | SEA | 14.2% | 10-6 | 9.4 | 10 | 15.6% | 7 | -10.3% | 32 | 10.7 | 8 | 11.7% | 7 |
| 10 | PHI | 13.7% | 8-8 | 10.2 | 6 | 11.7% | 9 | 3.8% | 5 | 9.1 | 11 | 17.1% | 23 |
| 11 | TEN | 9.5% | 10-6 | 9.3 | 12 | 3.4% | 14 | 0.8% | 14 | 8.1 | 15 | 17.2% | 24 |
| 12 | CLE | 8.5% | 10-6 | 9.3 | 11 | 16.8% | 6 | -3.5% | 25 | 8.5 | 14 | 5.6% | 1 |
| 13 | WAS | 6.2% | 9-7 | 8.2 | 15 | 8.9% | 12 | 4.8% | 4 | 8.7 | 12 | 16.1% | 19 |
| 14 | CIN | 2.2% | 7-9 | 8.9 | 13 | 1.6% | 17 | -1.1% | 21 | 7.9 | 17 | 6.1% | 2 |
| 15 | MIN | 2.0% | 8-8 | 8.6 | 14 | 3.1% | 16 | -4.8% | 28 | 9.5 | 10 | 16.7% | 22 |
| 16 | NYG | 1.1% | 10-6 | 8.1 | 16 | 1.3% | 18 | 1.3% | 12 | 8.6 | 13 | 8.2% | 3 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
2007 SCHED |
RANK |
PYTH WINS |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 17 | DEN | -1.1% | 7-9 | 7.5 | 18 | 3.3% | 15 | 0.0% | 17 | 5.7 | 21 | 35.5% | 32 |
| 18 | BAL | -3.9% | 5-11 | 7.2 | 21 | -9.5% | 23 | 3.3% | 6 | 5.0 | 25 | 16.5% | 21 |
| 19 | BUF | -5.8% | 7-9 | 8.1 | 17 | 0.3% | 19 | 7.6% | 1 | 4.9 | 26 | 12.3% | 9 |
| 20 | CHI | -5.8% | 7-9 | 7.3 | 20 | 4.4% | 13 | 0.2% | 16 | 7.6 | 20 | 10.2% | 4 |
| 21 | HOU | -6.3% | 8-8 | 7.3 | 19 | -3.5% | 21 | 2.8% | 8 | 7.9 | 18 | 12.9% | 12 |
| 22 | NO | -9.0% | 7-9 | 6.9 | 22 | -0.5% | 20 | -3.8% | 26 | 7.8 | 19 | 12.7% | 10 |
| 23 | ARI | -11.6% | 8-8 | 6.1 | 23 | -12.7% | 24 | -9.0% | 31 | 8.1 | 16 | 14.3% | 16 |
| 24 | NYJ | -16.7% | 4-12 | 5.5 | 25 | -8.8% | 22 | 7.0% | 2 | 5.4 | 24 | 10.9% | 5 |
| 25 | KC | -18.9% | 4-12 | 5.3 | 26 | -24.1% | 26 | 0.4% | 15 | 4.5 | 28 | 24.1% | 30 |
| 26 | CAR | -20.1% | 7-9 | 6.1 | 24 | -20.6% | 25 | -0.2% | 18 | 5.6 | 23 | 13.5% | 13 |
| 27 | MIA | -22.2% | 1-15 | 4.9 | 29 | -25.8% | 27 | 6.1% | 3 | 3.8 | 30 | 12.1% | 8 |
| 28 | ATL | -26.5% | 4-12 | 5.2 | 27 | -27.8% | 29 | -1.9% | 23 | 4.0 | 29 | 14.4% | 17 |
| 29 | OAK | -28.8% | 4-12 | 4.0 | 31 | -26.9% | 28 | 1.7% | 11 | 4.9 | 27 | 20.6% | 25 |
| 30 | DET | -29.2% | 7-9 | 5.1 | 28 | -32.3% | 32 | 3.2% | 7 | 5.7 | 22 | 16.3% | 20 |
| 31 | SF | -34.2% | 5-11 | 4.3 | 30 | -29.0% | 30 | -4.6% | 27 | 3.7 | 31 | 14.0% | 15 |
| 32 | STL | -34.9% | 3-13 | 3.5 | 32 | -29.4% | 31 | -2.0% | 24 | 3.7 | 32 | 10.9% | 6 |
Links:
[1] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa
[2] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#estimated_wins
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#weighted_dvoa
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#pythagorean
[5] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#variance