2002 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 7/6/2009

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2002, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [1].)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST YEAR represents 2001 rank.

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST YEAR	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	TB	33.4%	4	33.9%	12-4	-1.7%	20	-32.1%	1	2.9%	8
2	OAK	29.6%	5	26.8%	11-5	24.2%	2	-5.2%	9	0.2%	15
3	MIA	26.2%	10	23.0%	9-7	8.7%	11	-14.8%	2	2.7%	10
4	KC	25.4%	17	24.8%	8-8	38.0%	1	15.1%	29	2.5%	11
5	PHI	23.5%	2	26.9%	12-4	8.7%	12	-10.1%	4	4.8%	5
6	DEN	16.8%	14	15.2%	9-7	18.9%	5	0.5%	17	-1.7%	20
7	NE	16.2%	12	13.5%	9-7	9.7%	9	-0.7%	14	5.8%	3
8	NYJ	16.0%	9	12.9%	9-7	20.5%	4	9.7%	27	5.3%	4
9	SF	14.0%	3	12.7%	10-6	21.3%	3	3.7%	22	-3.6%	26
10	ATL	10.8%	27	12.7%	9-6-1	3.5%	16	-3.0%	12	4.4%	6
11	GB	10.0%	6	13.2%	12-4	5.1%	13	-8.3%	5	-3.3%	25
12	TEN	9.7%	18	11.1%	11-5	10.5%	6	1.3%	18	0.5%	13
13	PIT	9.0%	7	6.8%	10-5-1	8.8%	10	-4.5%	10	-4.4%	28
14	NO	4.8%	22	5.3%	9-7	-2.5%	22	2.7%	19	10.0%	1
15	CLE	3.9%	21	2.0%	9-7	-3.9%	24	-5.8%	7	2.1%	12
16	BAL	1.4%	11	-6.7%	7-9	-3.9%	23	-7.6%	6	-2.3%	22
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST YEAR	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	JAC	1.1%	20	5.2%	6-10	10.2%	7	8.0%	25	-1.2%	18
18	SEA	0.7%	15	-3.3%	7-9	9.7%	8	9.2%	26	0.2%	14
19	NYG	0.6%	19	4.8%	10-6	5.0%	14	0.1%	15	-4.3%	27
20	IND	0.1%	23	-0.2%	10-6	2.4%	19	0.4%	16	-1.9%	21
21	SD	-1.8%	13	-3.3%	8-8	3.8%	15	4.0%	23	-1.6%	19
22	STL	-5.2%	1	-9.1%	7-9	-8.2%	26	-3.6%	11	-0.6%	17
23	WAS	-6.1%	16	-7.2%	7-9	-4.7%	25	-5.3%	8	-6.7%	31
24	BUF	-7.2%	28	-6.5%	8-8	2.9%	18	7.5%	24	-2.6%	24
25	CAR	-11.1%	30	-11.2%	7-9	-23.2%	30	-12.3%	3	-0.2%	16
26	CHI	-11.5%	8	-13.8%	4-12	-11.7%	28	3.1%	21	3.3%	7
27	MIN	-18.5%	31	-13.1%	6-10	3.1%	17	16.2%	30	-5.3%	30
28	DAL	-23.1%	26	-21.9%	5-11	-22.4%	29	-1.8%	13	-2.4%	23
29	CIN	-25.5%	25	-25.2%	2-14	-2.4%	21	14.9%	28	-8.1%	32
30	ARI	-35.8%	24	-40.2%	5-11	-10.5%	27	20.1%	32	-5.2%	29
31	DET	-36.4%	29	-32.0%	3-13	-23.4%	31	19.6%	31	6.5%	2
32	HOU	-41.6%	X	-38.6%	4-12	-41.4%	32	3.1%	20	2.9%	9

ESTIMATED WINS [2] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
WEIGHTED DVOA [3] is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
2002 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).
PYTHAGOREAN WINS [4] represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed.
VARIANCE [5] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	2002 SCHED	RANK	PYTH WINS	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	TB	33.4%	12-4	11.9	1	28.1%	3	-2.5%	28	12.7	1	16.4%	19
2	OAK	29.6%	11-5	11.6	2	28.3%	2	7.8%	2	11.5	3	21.6%	29
3	MIA	26.2%	9-7	10.6	4	25.3%	5	4.1%	7	10.1	5	21.5%	28
4	KC	25.4%	8-8	10.8	3	26.9%	4	7.4%	3	9.5	7	19.3%	25
5	PHI	23.5%	12-4	10.5	5	22.1%	6	-5.8%	32	12.5	2	16.1%	18
6	DEN	16.8%	9-7	10.1	6	16.0%	8	8.3%	1	9.2	9	6.9%	1
7	NE	16.2%	9-7	9.7	8	8.3%	12	6.4%	4	8.9	14	14.6%	17
8	NYJ	16.0%	9-7	9.9	7	36.2%	1	5.6%	6	8.6	16	29.1%	32
9	SF	14.0%	10-6	9.5	9	6.3%	15	-0.1%	19	8.4	17	8.1%	4
10	ATL	10.8%	9-6-1	8.4	16	9.9%	11	-0.8%	22	10.3	4	20.3%	27
11	GB	10.0%	12-4	9.4	11	13.3%	10	-2.2%	25	9.8	6	13.6%	13
12	TEN	9.7%	11-5	9.4	10	21.7%	7	-3.2%	29	9.2	10	12.0%	9
13	PIT	9.0%	10-5-1	9.0	14	13.8%	9	0.8%	16	9.2	11	13.7%	14
14	NO	4.8%	9-7	8.6	15	2.9%	16	0.4%	17	9.0	13	12.5%	11
15	CLE	3.9%	9-7	9.1	12	0.6%	18	1.1%	13	8.7	15	8.0%	3
16	BAL	1.4%	7-9	9.0	13	2.5%	17	1.5%	12	6.9	22	10.8%	6
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	2002 SCHED	RANK	PYTH WINS	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	JAC	1.1%	6-10	8.0	20	-3.7%	20	-2.4%	26	8.4	18	14.0%	15
18	SEA	0.7%	7-9	7.4	23	6.7%	13	0.2%	18	7.6	19	16.6%	20
19	NYG	0.6%	10-6	8.1	18	6.4%	14	-4.8%	31	9.3	8	7.4%	2
20	IND	0.1%	10-6	8.3	17	-4.1%	22	-2.2%	24	9.0	12	12.1%	10
21	SD	-1.8%	8-8	7.6	22	-8.3%	25	6.3%	5	7.1	21	25.2%	31
22	STL	-5.2%	7-9	7.7	21	-3.7%	21	2.8%	9	6.5	24	23.8%	30
23	WAS	-6.1%	7-9	8.0	19	-3.1%	19	-2.5%	27	6.4	26	18.1%	21
24	BUF	-7.2%	8-8	7.2	24	-6.8%	24	4.0%	8	7.6	20	18.4%	22
25	CAR	-11.1%	7-9	6.7	26	-18.1%	28	-1.8%	23	6.5	25	20.2%	26
26	CHI	-11.5%	4-12	6.8	25	-15.0%	26	1.1%	14	5.3	27	13.2%	12
27	MIN	-18.5%	6-10	5.5	28	-6.5%	23	0.9%	15	6.8	23	11.3%	8
28	DAL	-23.1%	5-11	5.5	27	-33.0%	29	-4.3%	30	4.3	29	14.6%	16
29	CIN	-25.5%	2-14	4.5	29	-15.7%	27	1.7%	11	3.8	31	18.6%	23
30	ARI	-35.8%	5-11	3.9	30	-46.4%	32	2.3%	10	4.0	30	19.1%	24
31	DET	-36.4%	3-13	3.5	31	-37.6%	30	-0.6%	21	4.6	28	8.2%	5
32	HOU	-41.6%	4-12	2.5	32	-38.1%	31	-0.2%	20	3.7	32	11.2%	7