Week 1 Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

Ed. Note: Each week, Quick Reads looks at the best and worst players of the week according to FO's DYAR stats. This year, Quick Reads will appear on ESPN Insider on Monday (as explained last week [1]) and then will be republished on FO on Tuesday with the Monday night games added. Believe it or not, this is the first time that Quick Reads has actually appeared on FootballOutsiders.com. The column began on ESPN in 2004 (as part of a larger Page 2 column called "Snap Judgment") and then moved to FOX from 2005-2007 and back to ESPN in 2008. -- Aaron Schatz

Welcome to National Jump To Conclusions Week. Truthfully, we wouldn't have it any other way.

Because it's the first week of a new year, and both fans and media members alike want to be ahead of the curve, the outcomes of games and player performance in Week 1 become referendums on player value and the chances of each team contending over the final 15 games of the year.

That's just not realistic. Week 1 matters, but it's not a deal-breaker. Teams that win in Week 1 average 8.1 more wins the rest of the way, and make the playoffs 54.3 percent of the time; teams that lose the opener average 5.9 more wins and make the playoffs 24.7 percent of the time. That difference looks bigger than it actually is, because it's not hard to make that distance up over the final 15 games. In 2008, the Chargers, Colts, and Dolphins all lost in Week 1 and managed to make the playoffs.

It's even harder to project the performance of individual players based upon what happens in Week 1. Forget the waiver wire heroes like Donte Rosario (seven catches for 96 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers last year, 11 catches the rest of the way) or Chris Brown (175 rushing yards against the Texans in Week 1 of the 2007 season, 287 yards since). Just look at the Week 1 boxscores [2] from last year.

Outside of the Tom Brady injury, we didn't learn very much about what was going to happen in the 2008 season that week. Plaxico Burress picked up 133 yards in the season opener. Eventual rookie sensation Steve Slaton was still an injury replacement, running for 43 yards in a slaughter by the Steelers. Michael Turner had a huge day, running for 220 yards, but fellow NFC South stud DeAngelo Williams only picked up 86 yards, while eventual Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan [4] only threw 13 passes for 161 yards. Oh, and Jets fans were celebrating that they chose the right quarterback when Brett Favre [5] led the team to a victory over the deposed Chad Pennington [6] and his lowly Dolphins, who'd won one out of their last 20 games. They would proceed to win 11 of their next 15. Of course, they didn't even break out the Wildcat until Week 3.

Neither your favorite team nor your fantasy team are doomed by what happened in Week 1; the narratives of the 2009 NFL season are yet to be written in anything close to permanent ink. Keep that in mind before you get overwhelmed by the uproar of National Jump To Conclusions Week.

QUARTERBACKS

Quarterbacks

Player

Team

CP/AT

Yds

INT

Total
DYAR

Pass
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Drew Brees

26/34

358

300

Brees produced only the sixth 300+ DYAR game of the DVOA Era, although that may change later on. There are currently no adjustments for opponent quality, but once the season wears on and the Lions (likely) reveal themselves to possess a below-average pass defense, the retroactive adjustments for defensive quality will push Brees' numbers down. Here's a list of the top quarterback games in YAR and DYAR:

QB	Team	Year	Week	vs.	DYAR	x	QB	Team	Year	Week	vs.	YAR
Trent Green	KC	2002	4	MIA	347	x	Marc Bulger	STL	2002	10	SD	323
Tom Brady	NE	2007	11	BUF	306	x	Matt Hasselbeck [7]	SEA	2002	12	KC	321
Marc Bulger	STL	2002	10	SD	306	x	Tom Brady	NE	2007	7	MIA	317
Scott Mitchell	DET	1995	13	MIN	305	x	Peyton Manning [8]	IND	2004	3	GB	304
Randall Cunningham	MIN	1998	5	GB	305	x	Tom Brady	NE	2007	11	BUF	301
Drew Brees [9]	NO	2009	1	DET	300	x	Drew Brees [9]	NO	2009	1	DET	300

Tony Romo

DAL

16/27

353

182

-1

Romo exhibited exactly the sort of play that he'll need to pull off if the Cowboys are to succeed in 2009; instead of focusing on a star receiver, Romo exploited matchups and poor coverage to isolate Miles Austin, Patrick Crayton [10], and Roy Williams when they were in mismatches.

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

33/43

363

159

161

-2

Like most quarterbacks, Roethlisberger plays better when he has good pass protection in front of him. When the Titans stopped blitzing in the second half and overtime, Big Ben picked apart the Titans' zones with completion after completion. Teams will hope that they can just rush four and wait for the Steelers' middling offensive line to make mistakes, but you simply have to blitz Ben Roethlisberger [11] to beat him.

MNF

Tom Brady

39/53

378

159

155

Matt Hasselbeck

SEA

25/36

279

126

123

It turns out Matt Hasselbeck [7] is better when he has his top five wide receivers healthy. Who knew? What's interesting is to see how the team will use T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Houshmandzadeh has averaged 10.2 and 9.8 yards per catch the past two seasons, which is barely enough to be an effective receiver unless you're making up for it in volume (Wes Welker) or doing it in important situations (Ike Hilliard). This week, Houshmandzadeh didn't have a single catch for longer than nine yards. The Seahawks won, and Housh opened up holes for Nate Burleson and John Carlson downfield, but Seattle didn't hand over all that cash to get the late-model Eric Moulds.

Joe Flacco

BAL

26/43

307

122

121

You can safely ignore the talk of Baltimore opening up the offense and Flacco taking a huge leap forward this year; while the latter might end up happening, the reason the playbook was "opened up" here was because the Ravens were trailing and playing the Chiefs. Expect the passing to drop some next week, when he plays San Diego.

Matt Ryan

ATL

22/36

229

100

Miami's defense was overrated a year ago, but it was a nice day when you consider that Ryan was able to throw for more yards to Jerious Norwood (49) than Roddy White (42). The team also went out of their way to get Tony Gonzalez down the field; six of his nine targets went more than ten yards through the air.

Mark Sanchez

NYJ

18/31

272

100

106

-6

Mark Sanchez already has "it", the mythical adjective often prescribed to good-looking, extroverted quarterbacks, especially when they play bottom-five defenses and don't get sacked all day. "It" is a tricky one. Left tackles can't have "it", even though they're really important. Middle linebackers and free safeties are the quarterbacks of the defense, but they don't get to show "it" off. "It" only really extends to sports and entertainment, too; even the most motivated middle manager doesn't get talked about in hushed tones as the chosen one because he or she has "it". There's no way to bottle "it", but if you stand next to the Texans defense for a full season, well, you might end up looking like you've got "it."

Byron Leftwich

25/41

276

-1

The fear with Leftwich after his release in Jacksonville was that his delivery was too slow, but he dropped back 44 times against the league's best pass rush of a year ago and didn't take a single sack, so it can't be that bad. Getting some help from Kellen Winslow would've helped; the NFL's most expensive tight end gained a total of 11 yards on eight attempts.

Peyton Manning

IND

28/38

301

Losing Anthony Gonzalez early in the game threw the Indianapolis offense sufficiently out of whack to justify a switch to an all Reggie Wayne [12]-approach. The Colts made some adjustments at halftime, but in the first half, Manning was 6-of-9 for 98 yards on passes to Wayne, and 9-of-12 for 77 yards on passes to the rest of the team combined. With Gonzalez out for three-to-six weeks, and no obvious target across from Wayne, it could end up being a very lucrative few weeks for his fantasy owners.

MNF

Trent Edwards

BUF

15/25

208

10.

Kerry Collins

TEN

22/35

244

Collins was victimized by drops, but he had a very good game that will look better once opponent adjustments are factored in. One of the most difficult -- and important -- things a quarterback has to do against the Steelers is identify which players are coming on blitzes before each snap; it's something Collins does much better than Vince Young, and had a lot to do with the fact that the relatively immobile Collins was only sacked once.

11.

Brodie Croyle

16/24

177

Croyle got off to a poor start with three consecutive three-and-outs, leading Todd Haley to bench Croyle for Tyler Thigpen for one series. Thigpen didn't throw a pass, and when Croyle came back, he was on fire. Croyle completed six straight passes, culminating in a 50-yard catch-and-run by Mark Bradley, before failing to complete three of his next four throws. In what might be the most hopeless situation a quarterback will face all year, Croyle was sacked on a fourth-and-18 play from his own 13-yard line.

12.

Eli Manning

NYG

20/29

256

Much like Roethlisberger, Manning struggled when the Redskins got pressure on him; the rare appearances of Washington's pass rush led to an ill-advised interception and a fumble from Eli. Much like Roethlisberger, Manning was virtually unstoppable when he had time, simply waiting for Steve Smith [13] or Kevin Boss to find a comfortable spot in the Redskins' meek zone coverage. Eli didn't have a number-one receiver today, but he didn't need one.

MNF

Philip Rivers

24/36

252

13.

Jason Campbell

WAS

19/26

211

It was a bad throw, but Campbell deserved more of an effort from Santana Moss on his first interception; while Randy Moss has the reputation for taking plays off and failing to give 100 percent, it's Santana who seems to prominently do so on important plays (think the Seahawks playoff game). Campbell's another quarterback who needs to spend more time in the shotgun: He was 14-of-17 for 155 yards out of the shotgun, but only 5-of-9 for 56 yards with two sacks and a pick when he lined up under center.

14.

Kyle Orton

DEN

17/28

243

-2

Sometimes, statistics fail us. Obviously, a huge portion of Orton's statistical day came on the near-interception that was tipped into Brandon Stokley's hands for what became a shocking, game-winning touchdown. The numbers say simply that it's an 87-yard touchdown pass thrown with 28 seconds left in a game the Broncos were losing by five points; if you were to construct a win expectancy table and then plug every play from the 2009 season into it, Orton's pass would probably come out as the most valuable pass of the season. Before that pass, Orton had -22 DYAR, which would have ranked him seven places lower. Obviously, Orton deserves very little of the credit that the numbers award him. But hey, he just wins!

15.

Aaron Rodgers

17/28

184

While it was overshadowed by the Jay Cutler [14] Fiasco, Rodgers didn't exactly have a great game himself. He overthrew open receivers repeatedly, both way down the field and relatively close to the line of scrimmage. Taking a 11-yard sack for a safety on third-and-13 wasn't exactly a great moment in the history of pocket presence, either; of course, we doubt you can find a Packers fan who cares after that last throw.

MNF

JaMarcus Russell

OAK

12/29

208

16.

Carson Palmer

CIN

21/33

247

-3

Victimized by several drops, mostly those of Laveranues Coles. For those of you reading Quick Reads for the first time, while we note above that Palmer had "two" interceptions, the second pick -- a Hail Mary on the game's final play -- doesn't
cost Palmer much value. We separate out Hail Mary attempts from other, standard passes, and only "punish" the quarterback for throwing an incomplete pass, not for the pick.

17.

Shaun Hill

18/31

209

Also on the "Just Wins" brigade with Orton, Hill picked up the W despite four sacks from an Arizona pass defense that would not often be described as a terror. Again, drops by Vernon Davis and Josh Morgan really hurt Hill here.

18.

Donovan McNabb

PHI

10/18

-17

Didn't do much in the passing game to justify a high ranking, thanks to a steady diet of dumpoffs, but his rushing touchdown exemplified why Andy Reid failed to feature McNabb as a short-yardage runner a year ago. Despite McNabb's success when scrambling and on sneaks and draws, he's not exactly unbreakable. Sometimes, it's just smarter to keep a guy out of trouble.

19.

Brett Favre

MIN

14/21

110

-4

Favre had little rapport with his receivers, missing Sidney Rice in the end zone for a touchdown early in the game. Favre obviously still has some playbook studying and chemistry building to do with his receivers, but it will also help when Bernard Berrian (two targets, zero yards) gets back into the lineup at 100 percent.

20.

Chad Pennington

MIA

21/29

182

-4

Miami showed off the difference between Pennington and Pat White by having White come in for a play to heave a bomb in Ted Ginn's direction. The idea is to build an offense that just paralyzes safeties with the fear of having to cover Ginn deep or pinching in to shut down White or Ronnie Brown in the running game. The execution still leaves something to be desired, but the concept is sound.

21.

Kurt Warner

ARI

26/41

288

-15

-1

-14

The notable connection of the day was Warner to Tim Hightower, but the 121 yards Hightower gained through the air ended up perpetuating more of a myth than anything else. Only six of the 14 plays actually pushed the Cardinals towards a first down, and most of Hightower's completions helped his stats and not the team's, like a nine-yard catch on third-and-16, or the seven-yard gain on first-and-25. The mystery receiver who needed to get involved was Anquan Boldin, who caught two of the five passes thrown to him for 19 yards and an interception.

22.

Brady Quinn

CLE

21/35

205

-27

-35

Receivers don't get any of the blame for interceptions, but a fair amount of the time, they deserve some. On Quinn's pick, a horrible lob to Braylon Edwards that seemed to float for days, there was clear miscommunication. Edwards either cut inside when he was supposed to cut outside, or he didn't understand that Quinn was going to improvise and make a throw to that spot. Either way, even though Edwards made a great catch on what ended up being pass interference against the Vikings, he's not off to an auspicious start this year.

23.

David Garrard

JAC

14/28

122

-27

-26

-1

24.

Marc Bulger

STL

17/36

191

-31

-26

-5

25.

Matt Schaub

HOU

18/33

166

-36

-37

The Jets don't have an elite defense. You can throw downfield on them. When you're losing, it might actually be a very good idea. Instead, only three of Schaub's 35 dropbacks ended with him throwing a pass of 15 yards or more downfield.

26.

Matt Moore

CAR

6/11

-42

Matt Moore [15] could have just screamed "I'm not Jake Delhomme [16]!" at the top of his lungs (there were about 10,000 people in the stadium when he came in, so everyone would have heard) and kneeled every time he took a snap, and people still would have cheered.

27.

Kevin Kolb

PHI

7/11

-92

-89

-3

This was scary. Kolb's likely going to start next week, and while his poor performance against the Ravens last year could be explained away by lack of preparation and the presence of the Ravens' defense across from him, Kolb looked uneasy when he came in for Donovan McNabb [17], like a college quarterback that suddenly got called up to the pros one day and didn't know any of the plays. Checking down occasionally is fine, but averaging 2.1 yards per attempt is terrifying. The worst figure of the DVOA Era (minimum: 10 attempts), though, was Ryan Leaf in 1998: 1-of-15 for 4 yards, an average of 0.3 yards per attempt. Terrifying.

28.

Jay Cutler

CHI

17/35

277

-110

-114

Everything was off. The timing wasn't there; Cutler seemed to be trying to hit the space behind his receiver's back shoulder on every throw. The luck wasn't there; usually, Johnny Jolly drops that interception. The communication wasn't there; Cutler made a few throws to the wrong shoulder or at the wrong time, including the game-ender to Al Harris. Cutler's worst game as a Bear over the next five years might just have came in his debut.

29.

Matt Stafford

DET

16/37

205

-124

-132

Stafford appeared to get a copy of the playbook with only one route written in for each play, since it was the only read and progression he seemed to go through. Every criticism we heard of Stafford coming out of college -- that he wasn't mobile enough, that he relied on his arm too heavily, that he was prone to bouts of inaccuracy because of inconsistent mechanics -- came out against the Saints. And it's not like the Saints have anything resembling a good pass defense. It's not fair to judge Stafford based upon his first start, so we won't, but things did not look good out there.

30.

Jake Delhomme

CAR

7/17

-229

-234

-234 DYAR ties Delhomme with Anthony Wright for the 15th-worst game by any quarterback in the DVOA Era. Delhomme's game against the Cardinals last winter scored -209 DYAR. Anyone who can explain why the Panthers felt the need to lock Delhomme up with a new five-year, $42.5 million deal this offseason is smarter than we are.

RUNNING BACKS

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Adrian Peterson	MIN	180	3	18	0	81	69	12
Sometimes, the stats agree with your eyes. We don't keep statistics for things like "Defenders batted aside like so many ants", but Peterson would be leading in that category, too. Those 12 receiving DYAR are just an added bonus for a player who has struggled to be an effective, consistent receiver out of the backfield as a pro.
MNF	Fred Jackson	BUF	57	0	80	1	61	8	54
2.	Jamal Lewis	CLE	57	0	47	0	50	20	30
He's second even without an opponent adjustment for the quality of the Vikings' defense, which is surprising. He was only average on the ground, but he picked up first downs of 10 yards or more on all three of the passes thrown to him. Over 15 yards after catch per attempt for a running back is pretty impressive.
3.	Cadillac Williams	TB	97	1	0	0	47	47	0
Eight of his 13 carries went for five yards or more, and a ninth carry was a one-yard plunge set up by his 35-yard run in the second quarter. His return from two different torn patella injuries is remarkable, and while it's impossible to promise that it'll continue considering Williams' past, Buccaneers fans should savor the return of one of their most talented players while he's around and in the lineup.
4.	Willis McGahee	BAL	44	1	31	1	43	13	29
Five passes yielded four completions, three first downs, and a touchdown, while half his carries went for four yards or more, and he converted a fourth-and-one that sealed the deal for Baltimore. If this is how he looks in a part-time role, we wish he'd been in a jobshare since he left Miami.
5.	Marion Barber	DAL	79	1	0	0	36	36	0
Barber gained 21 yards on three carries to right tackle or right end. He gained 20 yards on six carries on runs to the other side of the line. There wasn't much of a three-headed hydra: Tashard Choice had two carries, and while Felix Jones had a carry that went 19 yards, his other five carries went for a total of three yards. Although we're not jumping to conclusions, it certainly appears that MBIII is the lead back as of now.

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Willie Parker	PIT	19	0	5	0	-30	-36	6
It's hard not to muster a single first down on 13 carries, but Parker managed to do it Thursday night. Five of those 13 carries went for either a loss or no gain, so the "bust" in "boom-and-bust" is still around. His nickname of "Fast" no longer applies, but "Plodding" Willie Parker [18] doesn't have much of a ring to it.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Santonio Holmes	PIT	9	11	131	14.6	1	67
Those people that suggested that Santonio Holmes [19] was primed for a huge breakout year are off to a good start, as Holmes mirrored his Super Bowl XLIII numbers on Thursday night. All the completions but one went for first downs, and perhaps most importantly, he was dominant in all ranges of the passing game. That's essential to being an elite receiver.
2.	Patrick Crayton	DAL	4	6	135	33.8	1	56
Only Crayton's last two reception attempts were of much notice, but considering they were completed for a total of 124 yards, well, they were worth waiting for. Ideally, Crayton should be working out of the slot and terrorizing nickelbacks and safeties; only time will tell whether the Cowboys place him permanently on the outside.
3.	Devin Hester	CHI	4	4	90	22.5	1	54
If you promised the Bears four catches for 90 yards from Hester every week, they'd lock themselves into a contract. Three of Hester's four receptions were for 20 yards or more, each picked up a first down, one went for a touchdown ... Hester packed as much into these four passes as even he could.
MNF	Ben Watson	NE	6	7	77	12.8	2	49
4.	Reggie Wayne	IND	10	14	162	16.2	1	47
The interception in the end zone doesn't look good, but Wayne was pretty much flawless beyond that. Only seven of his 14 targets went for first downs or touchdowns, but Wayne had to put up that sort of day Sunday or the Colts simply weren't going to win.
5.	Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	6	7	90	15.0	0	47
Six consecutive completions of 10 yards or more, six first downs. No touchdown, which depresses his totals some.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
5.	Steve Smith	CAR	3	13	21	7.0	0	-53
Smith was the intended receiver on four different interceptions on Sunday. I don't know when that's happened last, but it might very well be the first time. He wasn't great even when the ball came closer to him, catching three of the other nine passes for a total of 21 yards. Ouch.