Week 2 Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

(Reminder: Quick Reads appears on ESPN Insider on Monday, then gets republished on FO on Tuesdays, with added ratings for Monday Night Football.)

In the record books, a yard is a yard.

That keeps things simple, but it's not accurate. A yard is three feet, but those three feet never come the same way. The skill and effort needed to gain a yard is never the same; because it was impossible to properly value the relative difficulty and importance of each individual yard, though, they all got lumped in together when people started compiling NFL statistics.

Of course, all it takes is watching an NFL game to know better. A yard gained against the Ravens on third-and-1 in a close game is a small miracle; that same yard against the Texans on second-and-9 in a blowout is a disappointment. To give each of the players involved an equal amount of credit for the two plays is absurd.

Fortunately, now there's DVOA and DYAR, statistics which adjust for the down and distance, the quality of the opposition, and the game situation. No statistic will ever tell the whole story of a play, but these advanced metrics do far more to adjust for the context of a play and tease out the true value of the outcome than simple yards.

This week, three quarterbacks finished with more than 350 raw passing yards, a total which jumps off the page as a big game. If you watched the three games, though, you'd know intrinsically which quarterback had the best game, and which was just picking up meaningless yardage. Good statistics provide insight and potentially counterintuitive viewpoints on the game, but often confirm what observers see or perceive. DYAR does just that this week with those three quarterbacks, who we'll focus on in the table below.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
1.	Matt Schaub	HOU	25/39	357	4	0	226	223	3
The first of our three quarterbacks, Schaub unfairly flies under the radar because he plays for a team with an atrocious defense in a low-profile division. His advanced metrics from his two seasons in Houston point to Schaub as a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback when healthy, and he was brilliant against the Titans' defense. Schaub raised his game on third and fourth down, converting on six of 13 chances. He converted both a third-and-13 and a second-and-23, hitting budding superstar Owen Daniels for key first downs both times. He didn't turn the ball over once or take a single sack, and did so in a game where he threw a total of one pass while the teams weren't within seven points of each other. Yes, having Andre Johnson helps, but Schaub makes Johnson -- and the players around each of them -- significantly better.
2.	Kurt Warner	ARI	24/26	248	2	0	201	201	0
How can Schaub rank ahead of Warner, who only threw two incomplete passes en route to a near-perfect day? Well, just because a pass is complete doesn't mean it's successful. By our definition, a pass is successful if it picks up 40 percent of the yards required for a new set of downs on first down, 60 percent of the yards to go on second down, or 100 percent of the yards to go on third or fourth down. Five of Warner's completions were considered "unsuccessful" plays, and he'd probably agree; no one's going to be throwing parades for a one-yard completion to Tim Hightower on second-and-15.
3.	Eli Manning	NYG	25/38	330	2	0	189	191	-3
Not to take anything away from a deserving Manning, but the Giants' offensive line deserves massive amounts of credit for keeping Manning upright -- the leading pass rush in the league didn't sack Manning once, and that gave Manning time to make plays and his receivers time to get downfield. Eli did a great job of identifying mismatches and taking advantage of them, something we'll talk about later on.
4.	Matt Ryan	ATL	21/27	220	3	1	168	162	5
Imagine how good Ryan would've looked if he'd had Tony Gonzalez at tight end last year. Ryan had a remarkable 13-attempt streak in the middle of the game that yielded 11 completions ending in either a first down or a touchdown. It wasn't particularly exciting -- Ryan threw a lot of checkdowns and underneath stuff -- but it worked.
MNF.	Peyton Manning	IND	14/23	303	2	0	152	153	-1
5.	Kyle Orton	DEN	19/37	263	1	0	122	126	-4
Here's something to keep in mind about Kyle Orton [2]. Before he suffered an ankle injury last year, his DVOA was an impressive 18.5%. Afterwards? It fell all the way to -22.5%. His finger injury has cost him some accuracy so far this year, leading to stretches like the 1-for-9 ordeal of this week's second quarter, but he finished strong: His last seven attempts included six completions for 134 yards and five first downs.
6.	Trent Edwards	BUF	21/31	230	2	1	120	111	9
Speaking of streakiness, Edwards followed one stretch of five straight incompletions with 10 consecutive completions (albeit with two sacks). Some of that has to do with forcing the ball to Lee Evans; after Evans opened the game with a 32-yard touchdown catch, Edwards' other four throws to him were either incomplete or intercepted.
7.	Jay Cutler	CHI	28/38	236	2	0	114	122	-7
What do you know? It turns out Jay Cutler [3] isn't going to throw four interceptions a game as Bears quarterback. That's not to say that Cutler played great, but factor in the Steelers' pass rush and a less-than-stellar game from his offensive line and Cutler did yeoman's work to help pick up the W. Much like counterpart Ben Roethlisberger [4] did last week, Cutler raised his game late; he completed 11 of his final 12 attempts.
8.	Jake Delhomme	CAR	25/41	308	1	1	114	114	0
Considering most articles suggested that he'd be taken out behind the woodshed if he dare threw an interception on Sunday, Delhomme had an effective game. His lone pick, to Steve Smith [5], was a desperate attempt to make some sort of play on fourth-and-10, He also threw what was arguably the most unlikely 30-yard pass of the week, a bomb to blocking tight end Jeff King.
9.	Drew Brees	NO	25/34	311	3	1	99	99	0
What's even more amazing about Brees' first two weeks is that he's doing it without left tackle Jammal Brown, the team's best lineman. Brees does such a great job of getting the ball out quickly that it makes him extremely difficult to sack, and while the Eagles certainly tried, they only got to Brees twice. By the end of the day, Sean McDermott's defense was a tamed animal, having mostly given up on the blitz to ensure that people were in coverage.
10.	Philip Rivers	SD	26/44	436	2	1	95	101	-6
The second of our three aforementioned quarterbacks, Rivers' whopping 436-yard day wasn't as good as it looked. He had more big plays than Matt Schaub [6], but while Schaub had 12 first downs on 40 attempts, Rivers only had 13 first downs on 47. Fewer first downs means more stalled drives. Schaub also threw four touchdowns to Rivers' two, with the latter throwing in two sacks and an costly interception deep in his own territory. Finally, Rivers dropped back eight times in the red zone. The result: Two completions for six yards, five incompletions, a sack, and exactly zero "successful" plays. Blame Norv Turner if you want, but Rivers didn't come through when he needed to. Those yards mean more.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
11.	Jason Campbell	WAS	23/35	242	0	0	95	83	12
Joining Rivers in the group of players that struggled in the red zone on Sunday is Campbell, who was 1-of-5 for five yards and zero successes himself. At least Rivers was playing the Ravens! Campbell did his best work throwing to Chris Cooley, who caught seven passes for 83 yards in the game's first 35 minutes before failing to even see a pass from Campbell the rest of the way.
12.	Brett Favre	MIN	23/27	155	2	0	91	91	0
So far, Favre's been streaky, but when he's on, he's on. Favre finished the first half by completing his final six passes for 49 yards, four first downs, and a touchdown, and then put up his best quarter as a Viking so far in the fourth: 7-of-7 for 50 yards, three first downs, and his second touchdown, putting the game safely out of Detroit's reach in the process.
13.	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	23/35	221	1	1	70	58	13
Roethlisberger started off hot, converting three of his first four third downs for 55 yards (and the one that wasn't converted made it through on fourth down, with a one-yard TD pass to Matt Spaeth). Big Ben's effectiveness waned after halftime, though, as he converted only two of his six third downs. It's not his fault that Jeff Reed missed two field goals, but the nine-yard sack Roethlisberger took on third-and-8 from the Bears 11 ended up being disastrous.
14.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	21/38	264	1	0	65	50	15
The hysteria surrounding Rodgers' ridiculous preseason numbers halts here, closing the 1,738th chapter of the never-ending multi-sport sensation, "Preseason Statistics Don't Matter". Of course, it would help if Greg Jennings showed up: He and Rodgers were 0-for-5 together on Sunday.
MNF.	Chad Pennington	MIA	22/31	183	0	1	62	59	3
15.	Joe Flacco	BAL	17/26	190	2	1	49	51	-2
This wasn't exactly the wide-open offense of a week ago, but it looks like the team's giving Flacco a little more freedom than they did a year ago. Of course, there's still growing pains; the sack Flacco took on the Chargers 15 that pushed the Ravens back to the 24-yard line was almost a game-changer.
16.	Kevin Kolb	PHI	31/51	391	2	3	48	48	0
While one of Kolb's interceptions was a Hail Mary and weighted as such, his statistical line amounts to the NFL equivalent of empty calories. The 71-yard touchdown pass Kolb threw to DeSean Jackson on the opening drive was extremely valuable, but six of his seven other completions of 15 yards or more came while the Eagles were down three scores. That's picking up yardage on a prevent defense, not finding holes and marching a team downfield. On the other hand, Kolb's not in bad company. Only a handful of quarterbacks since 1994 have thrown for more than 375 yards in a game while averaging better than 7.5 yards per attempt in that game, and there's not many bad quarterbacks on the list. The worst guys are borderline starters like Jeff Blake, John Friesz, Kelly Holcomb, and Tony Banks; for his first NFL start, Kolb didn't do too poorly.
17.	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14/22	163	1	0	32	32	0
The Jets took Sanchez's training wheels off in the second half once they realized that the Patriots couldn't get any pressure on Sanchez, and he looked every bit the star the Jets hoped he might be. His touchdown pass to Dustin Keller was one of the prettiest passes of the week, and when Belichick did attempt to fire up one of his trusty old blitzes designed to make a rookie quarterback cry, Sanchez read them effectively and didn't panic. It's still only two weeks, but there's far more reasons to believe than there were after Sanchez ran over Houston. For the season so far, Sanchez has 130 DYAR in the third quarter and 7 DYAR in the other three.
18.	Marc Bulger	STL	15/28	125	1	0	30	48	-18
19.	Seneca Wallace	SEA	15/23	127	1	1	21	27	-6
20.	David Garrard	JAC	23/43	282	2	1	12	20	-8
Garrard's another underrated quarterback, but he's not John Elway. He's an effective, accurate pocket passer that makes good decisions, so when we see him scrambling for his life to the sidelines and launching spin passes to Mike Sims-Walker, something's wrong. Maybe he just doesn't have the receivers he needs, but if that's what the Jacksonville offense is coming to, it's broken.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
21.	Carson Palmer	CIN	15/23	185	3	2	10	3	6
Three touchdowns and two picks in 26 dropbacks is a pretty exciting day, even if it resulted in what amounted to an average performance. Palmer's best work came on third down, where he was 8-of-9 for 93 yards and two scores.
22.	Tom Brady	NE	23/47	216	0	1	7	4	2
It's plain to see that Brady isn't right. You can see it from his footwork: If you happen to see clips of this game, watch Brady's throws. He's not stepping into them, especially when there's traffic around him. The result is inaccuracy, and that leads to days like Sunday, when Brady was 8-of-18 for 72 yards on first down. The question is whether the problem is physical -- that Brady simply is experiencing discomfort when he steps into throws -- or mental.
23.	Kerry Collins	TEN	21/33	216	2	1	3	26	-24
24.	Byron Leftwich	TB	26/50	296	3	2	2	2	0
It's hard to make much headway on drives when you convert four of the 16 third downs you face. One of the problems is that there's no reliable third down target; Leftwich threw those 16 passes to nine different receivers, and while that might keep teams off-balance, the teams that are best at picking up first downs have players like Wes Welker, Steve Smith [5], or Derrick Mason that excel in just that situation.
25.	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	10/18	97	0	0	-3	-2	0
26.	Matt Cassel	KC	24/39	241	1	2	-4	-7	3
27.	Shaun Hill	SF	19/26	144	0	0	-26	-33	7
28.	JaMarcus Russell	OAK	7/24	109	0	0	-27	-27	0
Whenever someone brings up a quarterback's record as a statistical signature of their merit, please remind them that JaMarcus Russell [7] went 7-of-24 for 109 yards against the Chiefs in Week 2 of the 2009 season, starting 3-of-18, but still managed to "win" the game. It's hard to think of a player on either roster who did more to prevent the Raiders from winning the game than their starting quarterback. On the other hand, he can throw the ball really hard.
29.	Brady Quinn	CLE	18/31	161	0	1	-30	-32	2
Brady Quinn [8] on passes to receivers not named Braylon Edwards: 12-of-24, 71 yards, three first downs. Imagine how bad this offense would be if they'd actually traded him this offseason.
30.	Tony Romo	DAL	13/29	127	1	3	-95	-106	11
Alright, so one of Romo's interceptions was a freak pass off Jason Witten's back foot that belonged in the middle of a college quad, not a beaming superstructure. And one was essentially a punt. They still hurt the team's chances of scoring just as much, though, and ended up being the difference in a game where the Cowboys' rushing attack was dominating at times. And while Darrelle Revis will get the headlines for shutting down Randy Moss yesterday, fellow Meadowlands cornerback Corey Webster deserves his share of the hype for stifling Roy Williams. The Cowboys' presumed ace receiver caught one of the four passes thrown to him for 18 yards.
31.	Matt Stafford	DET	18/30	152	1	2	-102	-101	-2
It wasn't a good day for the rookie, but it would've helped if Jeff Backus had came to play, too.

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Frank Gore	SF	207	2	39	0	71	66	5
An 80-yard touchdown and a 79-yard touchdown? Yes, that's pretty good. But it's also pretty good that Gore also met the FO guidelines for success on half of his other carries, averaging six yards on carries that came with five or fewer yards to go for a first down.
2.	Marion Barber	DAL	124	1	31	0	55	39	16
Nine of Barber's 18 carries went for either a first down or a touchdown; his numbers would look even better if he hadn't been stuffed twice on the Giants 1, or had he completed a run into the end zone on his final carry as opposed to straining a muscle and falling down.
MNF.	Ronnie Brown	MIA	136	2	0	0	54	59	-5
3.	Chris Johnson	TEN	197	2	87	1	48	44	4
Yes, it's hard to believe that Johnson could score three long touchdowns and not be the most valuable back on the week, but it's even harder to believe how little Johnson contributed outside of those (admittedly extremely valuable) plays. He touched the ball 22 additional times; he contributed a total of two first downs. He picked up negative yardage or went for no gain on nine of those touches, and had two additional incomplete passes. He was great on three drives ... and did absolutely nothing to help the Titans score on the other ten.
4.	Justin Forsett	SEA	35	0	57	0	47	18	29
5.	Willis McGahee	BAL	79	2	10	0	46	45	2
Correlation isn't necessarily causation, but it's very interesting to see McGahee start off the year so well after having the starting job taken away from him for the first time in his career. His advanced metrics have never been particularly good, and his injury problems have precluded him from being a featured, full-time back for multiple seasons in a row. It could just be the defenses that he's faced to start the year, but it's also possible that McGahee's turned the corner. Maybe he just needed a kick in the behind.

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Steve Slaton	HOU	35	0	25	0	-58	-64	6
One first down on 17 carries. Only three successes. Seven carries for no gain or negative yardage. Two fumbles, and while the Texans recovered both, since we've found that fumble recoveries are luck and not skill, Slaton's punished by our numbers for both of them. Slaton was as bad as Matt Schaub [6] was good on Sunday.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Vincent Jackson	SD	6	7	141	23.5	1	74
The only receiver who's scarier downfield than Jackson is Larry Fitzgerald, and that's no knock on the Chargers star. They're better at different things; while Fitzgerald's better at running down the sidelines and leaping up over defenders to grab jump balls, nobody in the league is more dangerous on the deep post and deep corner routes than Jackson, including Fitzgerald. Of course, it helps to have a great quarterback, and Jackson's touchdown pass from Rivers in this game is an early candidate for best pass of the year.
2.	Donald Driver	GB	6	9	99	16.5	1	67
Driver had to do the heavy lifting with Jennings struggling across from him, and he was impressive in the process. The figures above don't include the two additional first downs and 28 yards he accrued in pass interference penalties, something he excelled at drawing during the Brett Favre [9] era. His three incompletions came on second-and-16, third-and-16, and third-and-15.
MNF.	Dallas Clark	IND	7	8	183	26.1	1	63
Based solely on YAR (no opponent adjustments), this is one of the 20 best tight end games of the DVOA Era. Last year, only one player scored higher, Visanthe Shiancoe (77 DYAR) in Week 16 against Atlanta.
3.	Marques Colston	NO	8	8	98	12.2	2	55
Colston's knee still isn't close to 100 percent; if you don't believe us, watch him try and cut. It doesn't matter, of course, because he can run in a straight line and Drew Brees [10] will find him.
4.	Steve Smith	NYG	10	13	134	13.4	1	54
Our statistics do not include the ankles of Orlando Scandrick, which Smith collected with a gruesome double move on his touchdown catch. You can also throw in a 34-yard pass interference penalty on Terence Newman, drawn by Smith, into his numbers. Especially if you're Smith's agent.
5.	Mario Manningham	NYG	10	13	150	15.0	1	48
The Giants have a number one receiver. His name is Mario Manningham, who you might last remember from a breakout 2007 season at Michigan. He's about six inches shorter and 40 pounds lighter than Plaxico Burress, but as he showed off Sunday night, Manningham's far faster and arguably has better hands. The Giants always depended on Burress' size to occupy safeties; now, they can use Manningham's speed instead.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Donnie Avery	STL	1	6	4	4.0	0	-48
Although our system doesn't punish him for what happened afterwards, Avery's fumble on the Redskins 5 cost his team the game. It was also Avery's only catch of the day. Had Avery just dropped the pass, the Rams would've been able to kick a 26-yard field goal that would have given them the lead. Instead, they lost the ball and never got that close to the end zone again.