by Aaron Schatz
The Saints may have engineered a big comeback to stay undefeated this week, but they still take a huge hit in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. Although the Saints remain at number one, they lost more than ten percentage points off their actual rating and are now less than one percentage point ahead of the second-place team, the Indianapolis Colts.
The Saints weren't the other team to see their DVOA fall despite what looked like an impressive win. Those DVOA darlings, the Philadelphia Eagles, fall from second to sixth in the ratings despite a 27-17 win against Washington. In fact, the Eagles actually end up with a negative DVOA for the game (-5.5%) for a variety of reasons. Opponent adjustments are strong since the Redskins have fallen to 22nd overall. The Redskins fumbled twice on the quarterback-center exchange, which hurts their rating but doesn't help Philadelphia's. The team really stagnated after a hot first quarter, and opened the door for the Redskins to come back. (Unfortunately, the Redskins have no idea what an open door looks like these days.) The Eagles had 55.1% offensive DVOA and -81.5% defensive DVOA in the first quarter. In the last three quarters, they had -60.2% offensive DVOA and 11.6% defensive DVOA.
When it comes to ratings that differ from conventional wisdom, a couple of teams really jumped out at me this week. The first is Green Bay, which has now climbed up to fourth overall. It's obvious now that 2009 will go down as the Year of the Defensive Coordinator, and we've rightfully celebrated the amazing turnarounds orchestrated by Mike Nolan in Denver and Gregg Williams in New Orleans. But over the last couple weeks, without anyone looking -- probably because the opponents were Cleveland and Detroit -- Green Bay has moved into the top spot in our defensive ratings. Now, obviously there is an element of strength of schedule here -- as I just said, we're talking Cleveland and Detroit. DVOA is currently using 70 percent strength for opponent adjustments, so the Packers could get docked in future weeks. Still, while it may be easy to stop the Cleveland and Detroit offenses, the Packers did a better job of it than anyone else. (Against Green Bay, Detroit had its worst offensive DVOA of the year, by far; Cleveland's worst games of the year came against Green Bay and Baltimore.) The Packers only have one defensive performance this year with a positive DVOA, which came against -- oh, just kill me now -- Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings.
Anyway, check out the defensive top ten at this point and you'll see that the top eight defenses all have new coordinators. The bottom five defenses also all have new coordinators. Obviously, there's a difference between a new guy doing the same thing (Philadelphia) and a guy who brings in a whole new scheme (Denver), but still, this is weird. Offense is generally more stable than defense from season to season, but this year things are really out of whack. From 2000-2008, the year-to-year correlation of DVOA was .52 for offense and .45 for defense. The correlation of last year's DVOA to this year's rating through Week 7 is .63 for offense and just .18 for defense. Since 2000, there hasn't been a season where the year-to-year correlation of defensive DVOA was less than .31. Even if we take out the defense with the biggest turnaround, Denver, the year-to-year correlation in 2009 is lower than that (.29). There's no trend here, either; from 2007 to 2008, the correlation coefficient for defensive DVOA was .63. This defensive transformation across the league is unique to this season.
The other team that stands out in this week's DVOA ratings is Miami, which now holds the title of "best team with a losing record" by a healthy margin. The Dolphins have played a very difficult schedule (fifth by average DVOA) and have only been outscored by a combined six points. That suggests that the Dolphins have been unlucky, which isn't really true. They haven't lost particularly close games and they actually rank second in the NFL in "hidden" value on special teams, mostly because opposing kickers are just 12-for-17 on field goals with two missed extra points. The Dolphins' bigger problem is inconsistency, especially on defense, where they rank last in VARIANCE.
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Housekeeping: All individual stats pages now updated. We've added a new feature on the 2009 stats pages: fumbles on receptions -- that's zero for almost all players, but we figured as long as we were adding the data to our own tables, we might as well add the data to the publicly posted tables. (We'll go back and add to past years in the offseason.) Team stats pages, playoff odds, and FO Premium database are also all updated.
If you are registered to receive Football Outsiders notification e-mails, you may have gotten e-mails irregularly or not at all in recent weeks. We're sorry about that; we're working on the issue. The Premium newsletters seem to be a little sketchy as well, so Premium readers who want to know when we post new picks each week can feel free to join my Twitter feed at FO_ASchatz. I also posted early DVOA ratings this morning, another little gift to those people who want to follow my ramblings.
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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through seven weeks of 2009, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [2].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are currently at 70 percent strength.
As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 19 percent of DAVE for teams with six games and 7.5 percent of DAVE for teams with seven games. DAVE also uses WEIGHTED DVOA, so games from Weeks 1-3 are slightly discounted. Beginning next week, our table will switch from DAVE to WEIGHTED DVOA.
To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: <team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RANK | W-L | OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | NO | 43.1% | 1 | 33.2% | 3 | 6-0 | 32.5% | 2 | -16.4% | 5 | -5.7% | 27 |
| 2 | IND | 42.4% | 3 | 40.8% | 1 | 6-0 | 33.4% | 1 | -9.1% | 8 | -0.1% | 15 |
| 3 | NE | 38.6% | 4 | 38.1% | 2 | 5-2 | 30.9% | 3 | -7.9% | 9 | -0.2% | 16 |
| 4 | GB | 35.1% | 8 | 27.5% | 4 | 4-2 | 17.0% | 8 | -20.5% | 1 | -2.3% | 23 |
| 5 | DEN | 34.7% | 6 | 23.6% | 8 | 6-0 | 17.1% | 7 | -20.4% | 3 | -2.8% | 24 |
| 6 | PHI | 33.0% | 2 | 27.4% | 5 | 4-2 | 8.4% | 16 | -20.4% | 2 | 4.2% | 4 |
| 7 | BAL | 27.9% | 9 | 25.2% | 6 | 3-3 | 25.2% | 5 | -5.9% | 11 | -3.2% | 26 |
| 8 | MIN | 24.6% | 7 | 24.2% | 7 | 6-1 | 11.1% | 14 | -3.9% | 13 | 9.5% | 2 |
| 9 | NYG | 22.8% | 5 | 22.0% | 9 | 5-2 | 13.2% | 12 | -9.4% | 7 | 0.2% | 14 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0% | 13 | 14.7% | 12 | 4-2 | 4.2% | 18 | -17.4% | 4 | 0.4% | 13 |
| 11 | DAL | 21.5% | 12 | 17.5% | 10 | 4-2 | 26.8% | 4 | 8.0% | 22 | 2.7% | 6 |
| 12 | PIT | 14.6% | 11 | 15.6% | 11 | 5-2 | 22.6% | 6 | 1.1% | 17 | -6.9% | 31 |
| 13 | MIA | 12.7% | 14 | 7.1% | 13 | 2-4 | 14.8% | 10 | 1.1% | 16 | -1.0% | 21 |
| 14 | ATL | 7.7% | 10 | 3.0% | 17 | 4-2 | 9.9% | 15 | 3.1% | 19 | 0.9% | 11 |
| 15 | CIN | 5.1% | 20 | 4.1% | 16 | 5-2 | 15.0% | 9 | 4.1% | 20 | -5.9% | 28 |
| 16 | JAC | 3.5% | 15 | 6.2% | 14 | 3-3 | 13.3% | 11 | 11.1% | 25 | 1.2% | 10 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RANK | W-L | OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | NYJ | 3.4% | 16 | 1.4% | 18 | 4-3 | -10.5% | 20 | -11.8% | 6 | 2.0% | 8 |
| 18 | HOU | -2.7% | 18 | -2.8% | 20 | 4-3 | 12.7% | 13 | 18.4% | 27 | 3.0% | 5 |
| 19 | SEA | -2.9% | 17 | -0.1% | 19 | 2-4 | -3.7% | 19 | 0.0% | 15 | 0.8% | 12 |
| 20 | SD | -4.0% | 24 | 4.1% | 15 | 3-3 | 5.6% | 17 | 9.3% | 24 | -0.3% | 18 |
| 21 | SF | -6.6% | 21 | -9.6% | 21 | 3-3 | -10.9% | 21 | -6.1% | 10 | -1.8% | 22 |
| 22 | WAS | -10.0% | 22 | -9.8% | 22 | 2-5 | -14.5% | 22 | -4.7% | 12 | -0.2% | 17 |
| 23 | BUF | -12.0% | 23 | -13.5% | 24 | 3-4 | -17.6% | 24 | -3.8% | 14 | 1.8% | 9 |
| 24 | CHI | -18.7% | 19 | -11.2% | 23 | 3-3 | -19.1% | 27 | 6.1% | 21 | 6.5% | 3 |
| 25 | CAR | -29.8% | 27 | -23.6% | 25 | 2-4 | -17.1% | 23 | 2.8% | 18 | -9.9% | 32 |
| 26 | KC | -31.6% | 25 | -29.5% | 26 | 1-6 | -22.7% | 29 | 11.5% | 26 | 2.7% | 7 |
| 27 | CLE | -37.4% | 26 | -35.1% | 28 | 1-6 | -29.9% | 31 | 20.5% | 29 | 13.0% | 1 |
| 28 | TB | -44.4% | 29 | -42.0% | 29 | 0-7 | -17.9% | 26 | 25.7% | 32 | -0.8% | 19 |
| 29 | TEN | -44.7% | 30 | -33.4% | 27 | 0-6 | -17.8% | 25 | 20.3% | 28 | -6.7% | 30 |
| 30 | STL | -45.3% | 28 | -42.3% | 30 | 0-7 | -20.4% | 28 | 24.0% | 31 | -0.9% | 20 |
| 31 | OAK | -49.7% | 31 | -47.2% | 31 | 2-5 | -38.0% | 32 | 8.8% | 23 | -2.9% | 25 |
| 32 | DET | -57.2% | 32 | -48.4% | 32 | 1-5 | -27.9% | 30 | 23.4% | 30 | -6.0% | 29 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
W-L | NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK | PAST SCHED |
RANK | FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | NO | 43.1% | 6-0 | 47.9% | 6.3 | 1 | 0.4% | 14 | -14.2% | 31 | 6.4% | 7 |
| 2 | IND | 42.4% | 6-0 | 51.6% | 5.8 | 2 | -7.8% | 26 | 4.4% | 8 | 14.9% | 18 |
| 3 | NE | 38.6% | 5-2 | 39.1% | 5.1 | 5 | -3.9% | 22 | 8.1% | 7 | 18.5% | 24 |
| 4 | GB | 35.1% | 4-2 | 47.6% | 5.0 | 6 | -18.4% | 30 | -2.1% | 21 | 15.3% | 19 |
| 5 | DEN | 34.7% | 6-0 | 38.4% | 5.5 | 3 | -3.7% | 21 | 1.5% | 15 | 4.4% | 4 |
| 6 | PHI | 33.0% | 4-2 | 48.4% | 4.6 | 10 | -17.5% | 29 | 10.2% | 5 | 21.7% | 29 |
| 7 | BAL | 27.9% | 3-3 | 31.9% | 4.9 | 8 | -0.7% | 18 | -1.8% | 20 | 10.2% | 13 |
| 8 | MIN | 24.6% | 6-1 | 31.8% | 5.2 | 4 | -9.8% | 28 | -4.7% | 25 | 3.6% | 1 |
| 9 | NYG | 22.8% | 5-2 | 21.4% | 4.1 | 12 | -7.0% | 25 | 12.3% | 4 | 14.8% | 17 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0% | 4-2 | 18.8% | 5.0 | 7 | 8.0% | 7 | -21.2% | 32 | 28.4% | 31 |
| 11 | DAL | 21.5% | 4-2 | 24.1% | 4.8 | 9 | -5.8% | 24 | 10.0% | 6 | 9.3% | 12 |
| 12 | PIT | 14.6% | 5-2 | 29.1% | 4.6 | 11 | -18.9% | 31 | 2.8% | 11 | 4.2% | 2 |
| 13 | MIA | 12.7% | 2-4 | 4.2% | 3.9 | 15 | 11.5% | 5 | -3.9% | 23 | 17.4% | 23 |
| 14 | ATL | 7.7% | 4-2 | 12.6% | 3.9 | 16 | 2.5% | 11 | 0.5% | 17 | 16.5% | 21 |
| 15 | CIN | 5.1% | 5-2 | 8.0% | 4.0 | 14 | 7.6% | 9 | -12.2% | 29 | 16.7% | 22 |
| 16 | JAC | 3.5% | 3-3 | 1.3% | 4.0 | 13 | -4.5% | 23 | -4.2% | 24 | 21.3% | 28 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
W-L | NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK | PAST SCHED |
RANK | FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 17 | NYJ | 3.4% | 4-3 | 12.6% | 3.6 | 17 | -2.1% | 20 | 2.6% | 12 | 13.7% | 15 |
| 18 | HOU | -2.7% | 4-3 | 5.8% | 3.6 | 18 | -9.6% | 27 | 3.8% | 9 | 6.6% | 8 |
| 19 | SEA | -2.9% | 2-4 | -6.0% | 2.7 | 23 | -0.4% | 16 | -10.9% | 28 | 20.9% | 26 |
| 20 | SD | -4.0% | 3-3 | -5.6% | 3.4 | 19 | 1.2% | 12 | -6.3% | 27 | 4.2% | 3 |
| 21 | SF | -6.6% | 3-3 | -9.3% | 3.0 | 21 | 0.5% | 13 | -3.7% | 22 | 10.3% | 14 |
| 22 | WAS | -10.0% | 2-5 | 0.6% | 2.9 | 22 | -21.8% | 32 | 14.5% | 2 | 5.3% | 6 |
| 23 | BUF | -12.0% | 3-4 | -13.1% | 3.1 | 20 | -2.0% | 19 | 3.3% | 10 | 15.4% | 20 |
| 24 | CHI | -18.7% | 3-3 | -16.1% | 2.6 | 24 | 0.3% | 15 | 2.3% | 14 | 21.2% | 27 |
| 25 | CAR | -29.8% | 2-4 | -35.5% | 1.8 | 25 | -0.6% | 17 | 19.3% | 1 | 13.8% | 16 |
| 26 | KC | -31.6% | 1-6 | -31.3% | 1.7 | 26 | 5.9% | 10 | -1.2% | 19 | 9.0% | 11 |
| 27 | CLE | -37.4% | 1-6 | -50.5% | 1.6 | 27 | 18.6% | 1 | -12.2% | 30 | 22.5% | 30 |
| 28 | TB | -44.4% | 0-7 | -43.4% | 0.8 | 32 | 9.1% | 6 | 13.3% | 3 | 7.2% | 9 |
| 29 | TEN | -44.7% | 0-6 | -57.1% | 1.3 | 29 | 14.2% | 2 | 0.8% | 16 | 35.4% | 32 |
| 30 | STL | -45.3% | 0-7 | -53.0% | 1.5 | 28 | 12.3% | 4 | -5.1% | 26 | 4.9% | 5 |
| 31 | OAK | -49.7% | 2-5 | -56.4% | 1.0 | 30 | 7.9% | 8 | 2.3% | 13 | 19.2% | 25 |
| 32 | DET | -57.2% | 1-5 | -65.2% | 0.9 | 31 | 12.7% | 3 | 0.4% | 18 | 9.0% | 10 |
Links:
[1] http://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/footballoutsiders.fsv/ros;sect=ros;fantasy=yes;game=no;tile=3;sz=300x250;ord=' random_number '?
[2] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods#dvoa
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#estimated_wins
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#variance