Week 8 Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

We are blessed to live in remarkable times. Remarkably awful times.

Sure, there's a handful of Hall of Famers at the top of the quarterback charts. That's common knowledge. What fans don't realize is what's at the bottom: A historic amount of detritus.

Through the first eight weeks of the 2009 NFL season, 5.8 percent of quarterback starts and substitute appearances of ten attempts or more have resulted in quarterback ratings of 30.0 or below. That's notably higher than in any of the five previous seasons, which have produced such "disaster games" 3.7 percent of the time. It also bears a pretty strong relationship to losing: From 2004 through 2008, when quarterbacks have posted a QB rating under 30, they've gone 14-83 (.144 winning percentage). This year, such quarterbacks are 1-13, with the only victory coming when Derek Anderson [1]'s Browns eked out a 6-3 win over the Bills in Week 5.

Year	"Disaster Starts" Rate
2004	3.7%
2005	3.6%
2006	3.9%
2007	2.9%
2008	4.0%
2009	5.8%

Although Anderson's start against the Bears was the only one to qualify for this ignominious honor this week, there are several obviously overmatched quarterbacks taking snaps under center right now. Their presence in the lineup comes thanks to injury (Ryan Fitzpatrick), organizational stubbornness (Anderson), the ravages of time (Marc Bulger), or the desperate attempt to justify spending several truckloads of money (JaMarcus Russell). The Lions and Jets play terrifyingly inconsistent rookies in Matthew Stafford [3] and Mark Sanchez [4], and hope they can learn on the fly. They've got the benefit of an acceptable excuse.

So sure, get in line to tell the legends of Peyton, Brady, and Brees. There's a more remarkable story on the other side of the tracks, where Anderson, Fitzpatrick, and Russell are polishing their UFL resumes with some of the worst quarterback play of the decade.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
1.	Brett Favre	MIN	17/28	244	4	0	216	216	0
We'll spare you the psychoanalysis and just note that Favre had a wonderful day against a very good pass defense on the road, and a lot of it had to do with his performance on first down: 6-of-8, 156 yards, four first downs, and two touchdowns.
2.	Tony Romo	DAL	21/36	256	3	0	149	147	3
Romo's numbers would look better with three defensive pass interference penalties for 38 yards (and three first downs, naturally) factored in, including two to Miles Austin [5]. He was downright dominant in the second half, with nine consecutive attempts resulting in a completion or DPI at one point.
3.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	26/41	287	3	0	135	127	9
Another second-half star (12 of his 15 first downs came in the final two quarters), Rodgers' improvement had a lot to do with improved pass protection and the resulting time he had to throw. It will be interesting to see on film whether that came thanks to improved play up front, a tired Vikings pass rush, or some other tactical adjustment.
4.	Donovan McNabb	PHI	17/23	240	3	0	115	108	7
McNabb essentially shut things down after halftime, with only nine second-half dropbacks. The optimistic Eagles fan would note that McNabb was only sacked twice in 25 chances; the pessimist would counter by pointing out that McNabb fumbled both times.
5.	Peyton Manning	IND	31/48	347	0	0	111	111	0
It was a pretty uneven day for Manning, who was 6-of-16 on throws of 15 yards or more downfield. More notably, he was sacked three times, the first instance of that happening since Week 15 of the 2007 season.
MNF.	Drew Brees	NO	25/33	308	2	1	109	109	0
6.	Joe Flacco	BAL	20/25	175	1	0	106	106	0
Flacco completed all nine of his second-half passes, picking up 105 yards, four first downs, and a touchdown in the process. What was it with teams in the second half this week?
7.	Philip Rivers	SD	16/25	249	1	1	101	106	-5
Finally, a player who didn't set the world on fire in the final two quarters; Rivers finished the first half with nine consecutive completions of his own, adding two yards while otherwise mirroring Flacco's totals above. Also worth noting is how dependent this passing offense is becoming on Vincent Jackson [6], who was targeted on 12 of Rivers' 25 attempts.
8.	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	20/35	265	2	0	97	97	-1
Sanchez remains remarkably inconsistent, even within games. Virtually all of his success came in one stretch of, yes, nine consecutive completions, in which he threw for 179 yards, six first downs, and two scores. Over the rest of the game, he was 11-of-26 for 86 yards with two sacks and a bumbled snap.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
9.	Matt Schaub	HOU	25/34	270	0	2	55	64	-9
There was concern before the game that Schaub might struggle with Buffalo's blustery weather, which always confounds us as analysts. Schaub was born and raised in Pennsylvania, where the weather isn't exactly great. Why would quarterbacks like Schaub and Kurt Warner [7] (raised and played college ball in Iowa) struggle with cold weather because they play for a warm-weather team now? It's overblown.
10.	Vince Young	TEN	15/18	125	1	0	53	67	-14
A day where Vince Young [8]'s passing was weighed down by the deleterious effects of his running? Will wonders ever cease? Indeed, Young's ten carries -- including four designed runs -- resulted in only three "successful" plays (40 percent of necessary yardage for a new set of downs on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down), while his passing was low-risk, low-reward stuff. He only threw three passes further than seven yards downfield, a sign of what little confidence the coaching staff has in him.
11.	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	22/39	249	2	0	45	45	0
For Seattle's scheme to work, the offense needs to pick up steady chunks of yardage on first down to set the team up with play action opportunities on second down, and easy conversions regardless of the play type on third down. On Sunday, all Hasselbeck could muster on first down before the final drive of the game was 3-of-11 for 35 yards and two first downs. That isn't going to cut it.
12.	Eli Manning	NYG	20/39	222	1	2	37	19	18
Our numbers don't account for the number of passes that bounced off the hands of Eagles' defenders or had little-to-no hope of being caught. Of course, the numbers also don't adjust for the amount of time Manning had, which isn't going to earn the offensive line any plaudits during film study. Five of Manning's "deep" passes (15+ yards in the air) were to Kevin Boss, which is both a reflection of where teams are targeting the Eagles and how little the Giants' receivers are doing downfield.
13.	Alex Smith	SF	19/32	198	1	1	33	33	1
Alex Smith [9] outside of the shotgun: 11-of-20, 122 yards, two sacks, and an interception. He took two sacks during the final drive in the shotgun, but his numbers are still better: 8-of-12, 76 yards, and a touchdown to Vernon Davis. It's pretty clear that Smith's comfort level is always going to be there, where he spent most of his time as a college passer.
14.	Jake Delhomme	CAR	7/14	90	1	0	32	28	4
Apparently, the Panthers' coaches are QR readers, since they listened to our playcalling plea. Even considering that Delhomme suffered a rib injury, the Panthers only threw the ball nine times after the first quarter, riding an excellent rushing offense to victory. Of course, that's a much more plausible strategy when you're up 21, as the Panthers were.
MNF.	Matt Ryan	ATL	19/39	289	1	3	25	26	0
15.	Kyle Orton	DEN	23/36	156	0	0	19	13	6
Orton's biggest play of the day was a 39-yard pass interference penalty drawn by Brandon Marshall; otherwise, he didn't have a pass play of longer than 20 yards until it was a three-score game with 18 seconds left to play. That screams "Lack of protection". That could become an unfortunate habit, thanks to the impending absence of right tackle Ryan Harris due to a toe injury suffered on Sunday. Harris's injury will break up the Broncos' starting five linemen for the first time since Ryan Clady's arrival in last year's draft.
16.	Chad Henne	MIA	12/21	112	1	0	-8	-8	0
Although the Dolphins took six sacks on Sunday, one of them was actually credited against Ronnie Brown [10]. That still means that Henne's sack rate was a ridiculous 23.8 percent, which puts his seasonal percentage at 11.2 percent. Chad Pennington was at 4.8 percent last year, and while his figure rose to 7.5 percent this year, it's still a significant improvement on Henne's.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
17.	Kurt Warner	ARI	27/44	242	2	5	-14	-18	4
One of the picks was a Hail Mary, but you can throw in a fumble to make it an even five "real" turnovers on the day. Take out the five picks, and Warner's 69.2 completion percentage is pretty reasonable, but it's not the best in recent memory. In 1996, Mark Brunell was 37-of-52 for 421 yards; the only problem is that five of those 15 incompletions were picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown and ended up being the difference in a 17-14 loss to the Rams. Of course, the Jaguars ended up making a miracle run to the AFC Conference Championship, so it was all water under the bridge by the end of the season.
18.	Jay Cutler	CHI	17/30	225	0	1	-43	-51	8
Children should not be allowed to watch Jay Cutler [11] perform. It's a vile mix of desperate heaves and awkward sidesteps, resulting in bloodied tongues and vulgar catcalls. Some of it is on Cutler, whose struggles in properly setting his protection has left a fair amount of free blitzers running at him and blowing up plays, but the shortcomings of Orlando Pace as a pass blocker have become too obvious to hide. The Bears are caught between a rock and a hard place, though; having promised Pace the left tackle job in order to secure his signature, the future Hall of Famer would likely scoff at a move to right tackle; even if he didn't, the result would be untested second-year player Chris Williams at the most important position on the line. More importantly, if Cutler's being overrun by Cleveland, what happens when he faces the Eagles, Vikings, and Ravens? The answer is trouble.
19.	Marc Bulger	STL	18/36	176	0	1	-66	-63	-3
If you take Marc Bulger [12]'s combined performance from 2007, 2008, and the first half of 2009, and then place it on a 16-game scale, his numbers aren't pretty: 266-of-465 for 2855 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. They're a dead ringer for Jim Everett's 1996 season in New Orleans: 267-of-464, 2797 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. Why is that relevant? Mainly because Everett would take 75 more snaps as a professional quarterback after that season. Bulger is just about done, and his inability to produce against an awful pass defense was just a sign that he's part of the problem in St. Louis, not the solution.
20.	Matt Stafford	DET	14/33	168	0	1	-72	-81	9
Just in case you were wondering, the Lions did not profit from their safety against the Rams. With the ball on the 12-yard line, an offense will score an average of 4.12 points; you could take some of that off considering that it was third down, but it was also the Rams' defense. The exact figure doesn't really matter, but it's a number well above two. The Lions did get the ball on a free kick afterwards, but that kick only gave them the ball at their own 28; teams score, on average, about .3 points from there. So, for the safety to be a positive play for Detroit, their expected points from the 12-yard line would have to be below 2.3.
21.	JaMarcus Russell	OAK	14/22	109	0	1	-93	-95	2
After the game, JaMarcus Russell [13] said, "I did a pretty good job when it boiled down to it." Our numbers suggest that he was significantly worse than a street free agent. Perhaps we have different boiling points.
22.	Derek Anderson	CLE	6/17	76	0	2	-103	-108	4
It's not his fault that two of those seven completions ended with the receiver fumbling the ball, but Anderson did his part with two picks and a fumbled snap. The second pick, which resulted in a return for a touchdown by Charles Tillman, consigned Anderson to the bench. He might not even deserve to be there.
23.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	15/23	117	0	2	-121	-121	0
Remember Rory Fitzpatrick, the journeyman defenseman who nearly made it into the 2007 NHL All-Star Game thanks to an Internet write-in campaign? If Trent Edwards has to miss another week with his concussion, Bills fans should be allowed to vote between Rory and Ryan for the starting job. Remember that exercise we did with Bulger a minute ago? Fitzpatrick's career line over a 16-game season is 242-of-420 (57.6 completion percentage) for 2210 yards (5.26 yards per attempt), 10 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. There's not a quarterback in history with a similar season to that. The closest example was Kordell Stewart's 1999, and well, Kordell Stewart could run. Ryan Fitzpatrick [14] runs because he's afraid of what might happens if he doesn't.
24.	David Garrard	JAC	15/27	139	0	2	-156	-163	7
The Titans clearly made some adjustments during the bye week to focus more on stopping the pass, even if it meant that there'd be more holes in the running game. The result was what you saw on Sunday, although Garrard shouldn't ever be this bad.

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Ryan Moats	HOU	126	3	25	0	66	56	10
Fantasy owners of Steve Slaton, weep, for this could have easily been Slaton's line for the day had he not fumbled to start it. It's not the first time Gary Kubiak has benched Slaton; some hands issues in Week 17 last year against the Bears caused Kubiak to put his starting back on the sidelines for a fair amount of the game. The important issue for Slaton isn't the number of fumbles he's lost (five), but instead the number of times he's fumbled altogether, seven, since we know that fumble recoveries are mostly luck and not skill. Since 1995, we've found only three halfbacks that fumbled seven times in eight games. One, Dexter Carter, was cut towards the end of his streak by the Jets, and spent a year and a half serving mostly on special teams for his old club, the 49ers. The other two both became prominent backs: Garrison Hearst, who had 12 fumbles in 1995 and then only fumbled seven times in the ensuing three years before suffering a gruesome injury, and Tiki Barber, who suffered through those seven weeks in 2000 and never really kicked his fumble problems until 2005. It'll be interesting to see which path Slaton takes, and what role Moats will play in the lineup if Slaton follows the Barber path.
2.	Steven Jackson	STL	149	1	17	0	61	63	-2
Jackson had 17 carries on first down, and nine of them were successes, including three first downs and a 25-yard touchdown run that gave the Rams a lead they would not relinquish. He also converted a pair of third-and-1 attempts.
3.	Chris Johnson	TEN	228	2	11	0	60	67	-8
Note that Johnson, who contributed two huge touchdown runs, had more rushing DYAR than Jackson; he picked up -8 DYAR in the passing game, thanks mostly to a failed third-and-1 conversion on the Jaguars 26 in a close game.
4.	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	87	2	0	0	60	60	0
Stewart's two attempts on third down resulted in a touchdown and a first down, and while his raw numbers might pale in comparison to those of Maurice Jones-Drew (who finished seventh), he was up against a Cardinals defense that was leading the league in rush defense DVOA by a fair margin. Teammate DeAngelo Williams was sixth.
MNF.	Michael Turner	ATL	151	1	0	0	48	48	0
5.	Frank Gore	SF	91	1	43	0	43	14	29
It's rare that a running back makes it on this list without rushing for a single first down, but Gore contributed a 64-yard touchdown in the running game, and was 5-of-6 as a receiver with two more first downs against a very good pass defense.

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Ronnie Brown	MIA	27	0	2	0	-19	-11	-7
The league leader in rushing DYAR heading into this week, Brown seemed poised for a big game against a Kris Jenkins-less Jets' rush defense. Instead, Brown's 11 carries included six for one yard or less, he caught one pass for two yards as a receiver, and took a sack as a quarterback. It wasn't a pleasant day.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Miles Austin	DAL	5	7	61	12.2	1	55
In his first three starts, Austin has ranked second, second, and first in weekly DYAR amongst receivers. Not a bad beginning to your career as the star receiver for America's Team. As we discussed in the Romo comment, Austin also gets DYAR credit for two "receptions", 31 yards, and two first downs on pass interference penalties. He ended up with six first downs and a touchdown on the day.
MNF.	Marques Colston	NO	6	6	85	14.2	1	54
2.	DeSean Jackson	PHI	3	4	78	26.0	1	36
If it wasn't for some great defense by Corey Webster, Jackson might've gone 4-for-4 with two touchdowns on the day. The only player in the league who approaches Jackson as a deep threat is Vincent Jackson [6], and if the Eagles had an offensive line that was better at pass blocking, it's scary to think about what else Jackson could have done this year.
3.	Vincent Jackson	SD	8	12	103	12.9	1	33
Speaking of, Jackson wasn't the downfield wizard he normally is against the Raiders. He was only thrown one pass further than 17 yards downfield, and it was a 49-yard incompletion. Instead, Jackson had five completions that traveled inbetween 10 and 17 yards in the air.
4.	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	4	4	47	11.8	1	33
Since the Giants focused Webster, their top corner, on Jackson, that left opportunities for Maclin and...
5.	Brent Celek	PHI	4	6	61	15.2	1	32
...the Eagles' bruising tight end, each of whom could have had much more significant days had the game situation dictated it. Maclin spent his time picking on overmatched corners Bruce Johnson and Terrell Thomas, while Celek worked in the middle against linebacker Antonio Pierce and the Giants' much-maligned safety combination of Michael Johnson and C.C. Brown. In fact, Celek caught a touchdown pass from McNabb that was called back on a questionable holding call, only to do catch a touchdown two plays later on the same route from five yards further out.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Eddie Royal	DEN	2	8	10	5.0	0	-43
If you want to play the Wes Welker role -- and considering that Royal had six passes thrown to him within six yards of the line of scrimmage, he did -- you have to catch the ball. It's that simple. Three Broncos' drives ended with incomplete passes to Royal on third-and-medium.

(Reminder: Quick Reads appears on ESPN Insider on Monday, then gets republished on FO on Tuesdays, with added ratings for Monday Night Football.)