Week 9 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

New England is still on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings after nine weeks of play, with Indianapolis fourth despite an 8-0 record. Anyone want to settle this on the field?

This week's results scramble the top ten a bit, with Dallas making the biggest move and climbing four spots to number five. You'll also notice that Pittsburgh's win over Denver leads to those teams switching spots.

This is the first week where WEIGHTED DVOA starts to consider Week 1 below 95 percent strength, so we start to see some small differences between the full-season ratings and the weighted ratings. Giving more strength to recent games moves both New Orleans and Indianapolis ahead of Philadelphia, and moves Houston up from 16th to 14th.

My apologies for the lack of extended commentary this week, as I'm off to work on some material for ESPN's midseason package. Individual and team stats pages are updated, as well as playoff odds. FO Premium should be updated later this afternoon. We'll announce the winner of Loser League Part I in tomorrow's Scramble for the Ball; don't forget to register your team for Loser League Part II [1] before Saturday.

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through nine weeks of 2009, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [2].)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are currently at 90 percent strength. WEIGHTED DVOA slightly discounts the results of the first five weeks to get a better idea of how strong teams are right now.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: <team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	NE	41.0%	1	43.0%	1	6-2	33.3%	1	-6.3%	8	1.5%	11
2	PHI	35.5%	2	32.9%	4	5-3	9.9%	15	-18.6%	1	7.0%	3
3	NO	35.2%	3	34.0%	2	8-0	28.6%	2	-11.3%	4	-4.8%	26
4	IND	32.1%	4	33.6%	3	8-0	23.6%	5	-6.9%	6	1.7%	10
5	DAL	27.7%	9	28.9%	5	6-2	27.1%	3	4.5%	20	5.1%	5
6	BAL	27.2%	5	27.5%	6	4-4	21.5%	6	-5.7%	10	-0.1%	17
7	MIN	25.9%	7	26.9%	7	7-1	16.3%	9	1.0%	17	10.5%	2
8	PIT	24.4%	10	25.7%	8	6-2	24.6%	4	-5.9%	9	-6.0%	30
9	GB	18.2%	6	17.5%	9	4-4	16.4%	8	-10.6%	5	-8.8%	32
10	DEN	18.1%	8	17.3%	10	6-2	9.2%	17	-14.3%	3	-5.3%	28
11	ARI	13.9%	12	14.6%	11	5-3	11.6%	12	-1.6%	14	0.7%	14
12	MIA	12.9%	11	14.5%	12	3-5	13.3%	11	5.3%	21	4.8%	6
13	CIN	12.2%	15	12.2%	13	6-2	19.0%	7	2.0%	18	-4.8%	27
14	NYG	9.2%	13	9.0%	15	5-4	8.9%	18	-2.5%	11	-2.2%	24
15	ATL	8.9%	14	7.7%	16	5-3	10.9%	14	2.0%	19	0.0%	16
16	HOU	7.1%	17	9.0%	14	5-4	13.8%	10	9.9%	24	3.1%	7
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	WEIGHTED DVOA	RANK	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	S.T. DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	NYJ	6.1%	16	4.3%	17	4-4	-8.4%	21	-14.7%	2	-0.2%	20
18	SD	-1.1%	19	0.2%	18	5-3	9.5%	16	9.5%	23	-1.1%	23
19	SF	-2.4%	18	-2.5%	19	3-5	-8.4%	22	-6.7%	7	-0.7%	22
20	JAC	-2.7%	20	-4.4%	20	4-4	11.4%	13	16.0%	28	1.9%	9
21	SEA	-6.9%	21	-7.8%	21	3-5	-7.0%	20	0.5%	16	0.6%	15
22	WAS	-12.9%	22	-13.8%	23	2-6	-14.8%	26	-2.0%	12	-0.1%	18
23	CAR	-15.2%	25	-11.9%	22	3-5	-10.6%	23	-2.0%	13	-6.6%	31
24	CHI	-16.5%	23	-16.6%	24	4-4	-13.2%	25	8.9%	22	5.6%	4
25	BUF	-16.9%	24	-18.0%	26	3-5	-18.7%	27	-1.0%	15	0.7%	12
26	TEN	-17.1%	26	-17.9%	25	2-6	-0.6%	19	13.0%	26	-3.5%	25
27	KC	-33.9%	27	-34.5%	27	1-7	-21.2%	29	14.9%	27	2.1%	8
28	TB	-34.7%	30	-35.7%	28	1-7	-12.7%	24	22.7%	31	0.7%	13
29	CLE	-41.0%	28	-42.1%	29	1-7	-33.9%	31	17.7%	29	10.7%	1
30	STL	-44.1%	29	-43.1%	30	1-7	-19.8%	28	24.2%	32	-0.2%	19
31	OAK	-50.8%	31	-51.9%	31	2-6	-37.4%	32	12.8%	25	-0.6%	21
32	DET	-54.0%	32	-53.6%	32	1-7	-29.1%	30	19.4%	30	-5.5%	29

ESTIMATED WINS [3] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they haad played one game per week.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play
this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
VARIANCE [4] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
1	NE	41.0%	6-2	38.3%	6.9	2	0.5%	17	8.4%	6	18.9%	25
2	PHI	35.5%	5-3	43.8%	6.2	8	-8.4%	30	4.4%	11	26.5%	31
3	NO	35.2%	8-0	38.8%	7.6	1	-1.5%	19	-9.1%	28	6.2%	4
4	IND	32.1%	8-0	43.2%	6.7	4	-4.4%	24	9.0%	5	12.5%	16
5	DAL	27.7%	6-2	29.6%	6.6	5	-2.1%	20	2.9%	15	9.8%	10
6	BAL	27.2%	4-4	28.1%	6.3	7	3.7%	10	-9.0%	27	11.0%	12
7	MIN	25.9%	7-1	31.1%	6.7	3	-5.9%	27	-10.5%	29	4.1%	1
8	PIT	24.4%	6-2	33.4%	6.5	6	-8.2%	29	-4.0%	22	11.7%	14
9	GB	18.2%	4-4	30.4%	5.2	14	-14.0%	31	1.9%	17	17.6%	24
10	DEN	18.1%	6-2	17.1%	5.9	10	4.4%	9	-8.0%	25	13.9%	18
11	ARI	13.9%	5-3	15.3%	6.1	9	0.5%	16	-17.8%	32	22.6%	30
12	MIA	12.9%	3-5	4.6%	5.3	12	12.4%	1	-2.0%	20	11.4%	13
13	CIN	12.2%	6-2	11.9%	5.4	11	7.2%	6	-17.8%	31	20.2%	26
14	NYG	9.2%	5-4	8.9%	4.6	18	-2.4%	21	12.6%	3	20.4%	27
15	ATL	8.9%	5-3	11.0%	5.2	15	7.8%	5	-2.2%	21	10.4%	11
16	HOU	7.1%	5-4	10.9%	5.2	13	-2.9%	23	2.2%	16	8.4%	8
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	NON-ADJ TOT VOA	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VAR.	RANK
17	NYJ	6.1%	4-4	13.4%	4.7	16	2.7%	12	3.5%	13	12.4%	15
18	SD	-1.1%	5-3	0.7%	4.5	19	-4.9%	25	-1.6%	19	4.2%	2
19	SF	-2.4%	3-5	-11.1%	3.9	20	2.2%	14	-8.1%	26	8.5%	9
20	JAC	-2.7%	4-4	0.7%	4.6	17	-7.3%	28	5.6%	8	22.1%	29
21	SEA	-6.9%	3-5	-4.5%	3.7	21	-5.1%	26	-4.8%	23	15.2%	20
22	WAS	-12.9%	2-6	-3.3%	3.4	25	-14.3%	32	14.5%	2	6.5%	5
23	CAR	-15.2%	3-5	-25.8%	3.3	26	6.3%	7	14.9%	1	17.2%	23
24	CHI	-16.5%	4-4	-12.1%	3.5	24	-2.7%	22	4.6%	10	14.3%	19
25	BUF	-16.9%	3-5	-17.5%	3.5	23	1.3%	15	6.8%	7	15.4%	21
26	TEN	-17.1%	2-6	-29.8%	3.6	22	11.4%	2	-0.4%	18	52.0%	32
27	KC	-33.9%	1-7	-28.8%	2.1	27	3.6%	11	-5.3%	24	6.9%	6
28	TB	-34.7%	1-7	-35.7%	1.9	28	9.6%	4	12.2%	4	13.0%	17
29	CLE	-41.0%	1-7	-51.8%	1.8	30	10.3%	3	-11.3%	30	21.5%	28
30	STL	-44.1%	1-7	-43.4%	1.9	29	-0.3%	18	3.9%	12	4.9%	3
31	OAK	-50.8%	2-6	-53.7%	1.1	32	4.4%	8	3.1%	14	16.7%	22
32	DET	-54.0%	1-7	-56.6%	1.4	31	2.6%	13	5.4%	9	8.2%	7