Week 10 Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

(Ed. Note: Quick Reads appears on ESPN Insider on Monday, then gets republished on FO on Tuesdays, with added ratings for Monday Night Football. The original introduction to this week's Quick Reads on ESPN analyzed Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 against the Colts on Sunday night. We wanted to prevent discussion of that play from overwhelming discussion of the other 14 games this week, so we moved that commentary into its own post. You can read that here [1]. Please use the thread below to talk about Quick Reads and other games rather than fourth-and-2. Thanks. -- Aaron Schatz)

Click here [2] to learn more about what DYAR numbers mean and how they are computed. This is the first week of 2009 where opponent adjustments are at full strength.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
1.	Kurt Warner	ARI	29/37	340	2	0	247	248	-1
Even by Kurt Warner [3] standards, he had a hot streak in this game. After throwing two incompletions to start off the second quarter, he went on a rampage: 23-of-25 (with a 19-yard defensive pass interference penalty) for 330 yards, 13 first downs, and two touchdowns. That's unholy, the sort of stuff you do playing video games in beginner mode. Considering the diabolically easy schedule Warner's about to run through over the next six weeks, you might be looking at your NFL MVP.
2.	Tom Brady	NE	29/42	375	3	1	210	212	-2
In the never-ending chess match between the Patriots and the Colts, New England's game plan was to isolate Randy Moss [4] in one-on-one coverage down the field against one of Indy's inexperienced cornerbacks or overmatched safeties. Like many things in life, it worked until it didn't work; after Brady's 63-yard touchdown pass to Moss, the Colts adapted, and Brady only threw two passes of 15 yards or more down the field the rest of the way: The 36-yard pass to Benjamin Watson on the very next play, and the interception in the end zone intended for Moss. Brady never went deep again, but in all fairness, he followed that interception by completing 11 consecutive passes. So it's not like the Colts were stopping them with this adjustment, either.
3.	Philip Rivers	SD	20/25	231	2	0	189	189	0
His raw numbers pale in comparison to Donovan McNabb [5]'s, but Rivers went 20-of-25 against the pass defense that DVOA believes to be the best in football. Philadelphia took away Vincent Jackson, who only had one catch for 10 yards, so Rivers adapted: Antonio Gates caught seven passes for 78 yards, while his touchdowns were thrown to Legedu Naanee [6] (on a blown coverage by Asante Samuel, who had a phantom safety behind him) and fullback Mike Tolbert.
4.	Donovan McNabb	PHI	35/55	450	2	1	187	187	0
Both of McNabb's touchdowns and a fair chunk of his yardage came after his team was down 19 points in the fourth quarter, and while 450 yards in the air is an impressive total, consider that the Eagles were only able to run for 29 yards all game. That's brutal. Of course, if they could convert in short-yardage, no one would be complaining. That's where McNabb needs to come into play; historically, he's been great on sneaks, and although one failed against Cowboys, they need to run more of them in lieu of handoffs that allow people into the backfield.
5.	Peyton Manning	IND	28/44	327	4	2	178	178	0
It was a wildly inconsistent game from Manning, albeit one that ended up being effective over the long haul. He followed his prettiest pass of the season -- a strike to Pierre Garcon that hit him in the stride on the fingertips -- with one of the ugliest, a miscommunication-driven duck that nearly put the Colts out of it down ten points with 7:54 left. Manning actually had a better rate of picking up a new set of downs or a touchdown on first down (11-of-21) than on third down (4-of-11), despite facing an average of only 6.4 yards to go on those third down attempts.
6.	Brett Favre	MIN	20/29	344	1	0	149	149	0
7.	Marc Bulger	STL	26/40	298	2	1	124	120	5
If this was the best Marc Bulger [7] had left, well, it's good, but not good enough. His conversion on fourth down to Brandon Gibson to extend the game with 1:21 left nearly ended it; he saw an open receiver and promptly hit him in the shoelaces. Converting four of the 12 third downs he faced wasn't particularly impressive, especially considering the good situations he was being placed in by the effective running of Steven Jackson -- on those third downs, he had an average of 7.2 yards to go. That leaves a fair amount of makable ones that weren't, especially considering that one of the plays he converted was his 29-yard touchdown pass to Donnie Avery on third-and-15.
8.	Kyle Orton	DEN	11/18	193	2	0	111	108	4
Before suffering an ankle injury, Orton successfully executed his gameplan of attacking the safeties in the Redskins' scheme, who were delighted to blow coverages and look for phantom run plays in the backfield. The concern now is how much the ankle injury affects Orton over the second half of the year; remember, Orton played far worse [8] after injuring his ankle a year ago.
9.	David Garrard	JAC	16/26	221	1	0	109	98	11
We don't process game tape quick enough to analyze who was in coverage on every given play within 24 hours, but it's pretty clear that the Jaguars had a simple game plan when throwing the ball: Avoid Darrelle Revis and go after Lito Sheppard. It worked; Revis was generally effective against Sims-Walker, but the Jaguars' top receiver scored his touchdown when Sheppard was in coverage.
10.	Vince Young	TEN	17/25	210	1	1	108	109	-1
Buffalo has a very good pass defense, which boosts Young's numbers up some, but there's still a lot of issues with Young's passing. His interception was an ugly throw and a misread against one-deep coverage, gifting Jairus Byrd his latest pick. He nearly gave the ball away with a terrible throw to Bo Scaife in the end zone, one play before throwing a touchdown to Nate Washington. As long as Chris Johnson [9] continues to be Chris Johnson [9], though, no one will be complaining in Tennessee. In fact, people can probably find those stories about Kerry Collins knowing how to win and just re-print them with Young's name in them.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
11.	Jason Campbell	WAS	18/26	193	1	0	92	87	5
Our favorite talking point showed off his usual mix of hits and misses. He was accurate up and down the field, converted five of the 11 third downs he faced, and held onto the football. On the other hand, he was sacked three times, took an intentional grounding penalty deep in Denver territory, and constantly looked worried that he was going to end up embedded in the turf at any given moment. It's a day that scales up because of how good Denver's pass defense has been this season.
12.	Jake Delhomme	CAR	15/24	195	2	0	69	69	0
When Carolina gets their rushing offense going, it's not hard for Delhomme to look good and put up gaudy numbers with single coverage on the outside. That usually means that he's throwing to Steve Smith, and while Smith scored twice on the day, he only had 34 yards on four catches. The big yardage producer was Muhsin Muhammad, who had three catches of 20 yards or more on the day. Losing Jordan Gross will dampen the Panthers' receivers ability to get downfield, but more importantly, it will hurt the running game.
13.	Carson Palmer	CIN	18/30	178	0	0	50	49	1
14.	Matt Ryan	ATL	22/41	224	1	2	31	38	-7
It would be easy to look at Ryan's end-of-game numbers and suggest that he started performing worse after Michael Turner [10] went down after a high ankle sprain, but that wasn't the case; he went 17-of-29 for 179 yards with a touchdown (and two interceptions) after Turner limped off the field. The place Turner's absence was felt instead was in short-yardage. Jason Snelling was stuffed twice in the row from the one-yard line, forcing Atlanta to pass for a touchdown on fourth down, while a Ryan sneak attempt in a later series was foiled on third-and-1 from the Carolina 16, and the ensuing field goal attempt was no good.
15.	Drew Brees	NO	18/25	223	2	2	31	31	0
He did throw two picks in what ended up being a very close game against a very bad pass defense, but Brees was almost perfect otherwise, going 18-of-23 with two scores and putting the game out of reach with a pass to Marques Colston … only for Colston to fumble into the end zone. The combination of brilliance with turnovers against such a poor defense leads to a middling day.
16.	Chad Henne	MIA	17/29	175	1	1	29	29	0
Our stats underestimate what a mind-bogglingly bad throw Henne's late-game interception was. Not only was there no one close to catching the ball in a Dolphins uniform, but there was no earthly reason why Henne should've made a throw into anything resembling traffic. That's a situation reserved for only the safest of throws. In all fairness, Dan Henning shouldn't have put Henne into that situation, but it was the worst decision of the weekend, and that includes Sunday night.
MNF.	Joe Flacco	BAL	13/18	155	0	0	22	22	0
17.	Trent Edwards	BUF	18/28	185	1	1	9	24	-15
Any hype about Edwards coming into this season was misguided because of the arrival of a beat-up Terrell Owens, a rebuilt offensive line, and the fact that Edwards' average performance last year had more to do with a historically-easy schedule than anything else. With that being said, we're not really sure why Edwards was benched. He had an average day against a bad pass defense, one that was finished with a pick-six with 3:02 left. It would be one thing if the Bills wanted to give a developing quarterback behind Edwards some reps in a blowout, but Edwards is their developing quarterback. Their backup is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he doesn't belong on an NFL field without a pass around his neck. It was a knee-jerk decision that doesn't make any sense. Fitzpatrick accrued -79 DYAR in his seven attempts.
18.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	26/35	193	1	0	-7	-17	10
It wasn't exactly the prettiest game from Rodgers, who averaged only 4.5 yards per pass play, but he completed nearly 70 percent of his passes and only took four sacks. He was lucky, however, that both of his fumbles, including one on the second offensive snap of the game, were recovered by his own team.
19.	Matt Cassel	KC	19/34	216	0	1	-11	-1	-10
It's scary to imagine what Cassel's season would look like without Dwayne Bowe. 13 of Cassel's 40 dropbacks resulted in throws to Bowe, accruing six first downs in the process through four completions and two defensive pass interference calls. (Bowe also fumbled the ball forward for about 15 yards in the game's most prominent Keystone Kops moment.) Cassel's other 27 dropbacks resulted in a total of three first downs: Two to Chris Chambers, who barely knows the playbook, and one to Lance Long. Much like Edwards, Cassel is making a case for the quarterbacks of the 2008 AFC East as impossibly overrated thanks to their weak schedule. Then again, Cassel's playing the Raiders.
20.	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	16/30	212	1	2	-17	-17	0
It was not a good game for Sanchez, who was playing DVOA's worst pass defense in football, yet barely completed 50 percent of his passes. One way the Jets could help him would be by putting him in better situations on third down. Sanchez was 5-of-6 with less than nine yards to go on third down, but faced situations with 12, 14, and 20 yards to go, predictably failing to convert.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
21.	Tony Romo	DAL	24/39	252	1	1	-25	-38	13
Losing Marc Colombo is really going to affect the Cowboys. Tony Romo [11] took five sacks on Sunday against a Packers team that was 27th in the league in our Adjusted Sack Rate measure [12] heading into the week, and while they're not all directly related to losing Colombo, it's not a good sign. As for a book on stopping the Cowboys offense, well, the Packers shut down Marion Barber and let the rest solve itself. Before the fourth quarter, Tony Romo [11] dropped back on third down trying to pick up conversions with 3, 9, 18, 10, 19, and 23 yards to go. He did not get a single one of them. In the fourth quarter, with the game comfortably out of reach, he had to convert from 8, 8, 10, 4, 10, and a lone yard out, and got four of them. It's simple, but if you put a team in third-and-long, they're going to punt a fair amount of the time.
22.	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	26/52	315	1	2	-28	-27	0
The Seahawks dropped Matt Hasselbeck [13] back to throw 59 times on Sunday, a reflection of the speedy pace and back-and-forth nature of their game with Arizona. Despite converting seven of his 14 third down attempts and enjoying a surprisingly effective running game thanks to Justin Forsett, Hasselbeck didn't do enough to push his team towards the win when he had the ball in his hands. The two picks he threw down 11 points sealed the Seahawks' chances of coming back, especially his sloppy, scrambling attempt to shovel a pass to Justin Forsett in the red zone.
23.	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	20/40	174	0	1	-39	-48	9
In the midst of a sterling year for the Steelers' franchise quarterback, Roethlisberger had a miserable game. Although he was only picked off once and sacked four times, several dropped interceptions and plays doomed from the start by missed blitzes were a better exhibition of the issues Roethlisberger was dealing with. Furthermore, his work on third and fourth down was abysmal, converting on one of only 13 attempts, including five chances of five yards or less.
24.	Matt Stafford	DET	29/51	226	1	0	-41	-47	6
Stafford averaged only 4.4 yards on his 51 attempts, which is one of the lowest totals in recent history for quarterbacks throwing over 50 attempts in one game. Eli Manning averaged an appalling 3.5 yards per attempt in a 22-10 loss to the Redskins in 2007 shortly before leading the Giants to the Super Bowl, Donovan McNabb [5] got to 3.9 against the Steelers in a 26-23 win in 2000, and Joey Harrington was at 4.4 in a 31-6 loss to the Packers in 2003.
25.	Alex Smith	SF	16/23	118	0	1	-54	-46	-8
26.	JaMarcus Russell	OAK	9/24	67	0	0	-89	-89	0
Of course, JaMarcus Russell [14] is awful. We all know that. What does Tom Cable suddenly see, though, that he wasn't seeing a week ago? Five weeks ago? Russell still is maddeningly inconsistent, a problem that's reinforced by receivers that drop his good passes and fall down en route to his bad ones. So what that he went 0-for-11 in converting third downs? He was 15-of-72 before today, it's not like he was Peyton Manning [15] before Sunday. All benching Russell for a few plays does, at this point, is take the little slivers of confidence that Russell might desperately be clinging onto away. If you're going to bench Russell at this point, do it for weeks, not plays.
27.	Josh Freeman	TB	16/28	196	1	1	-92	-86	-6
28.	Chris Simms	DEN	3/13	13	0	1	-104	-104	0
Backups play worse when they're forced to come into games because of an injury than they do starting games from the opening bell. The reason why is practice; knowing that you're the starter heading into a week allows you to mentally and physically prepare for the game like one, including the ability to get to reps in practice with the first-team. When Simms came in to start the second half, he was awful for all the reasons you might expect a rusty quarterback to be such. His mechanics needed some fine-tuning. He didn't have a great feel for the rush. His passes didn't hit receivers in stride, yielding drops, or flat out missed them altogether. When you can't complete a pass longer than three yards downfield in 16 attempts, something is seriously amiss. If Kyle Orton [16] can't make it to San Diego on Sunday, Simms should play better.
29.	Jay Cutler	CHI	29/50	307	0	5	-113	-115	2
Psychoanalyzing athletes is a dangerous topic to get into -- it's real easy to look stupid -- so we won't try and get in Cutler's head. But the only way Cutler makes that final throw while operating within the bounds of logic is if he thinks that there's not going to be time remaining on the clock for him to attempt another pass, even if the one he's about to throw falls incomplete. In that sense, although our numbers didn't consider it as such, it's a Hail Mary pass. Of course, even if you are generous enough to explain away two of Cutler's other four picks as Devin Hester/the field's fault, there's still two more waiting to be assigned to Cutler.
30.	Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4/8	46	0	2	-113	-116	3
If you could turn a third-and-23 give-up draw into a person, it would be Bruce Gradkowski [17]. JaMarcus Russell [14]'s replacement threw an interception that should truly be credited to Darrius Heyward-Bey, who let the ball hit him in the chest before knocking the ball up and over his head and into Mike Brown's hands, ending the Raiders' final drive of the game.
MNF.	Brady Quinn	CLE	13/31	99	0	2	-191	-195	4
The Browns couldn't do anything on first and second down, which left Quinn in third-and-long virtually every series. And they could do even less there; if it didn't result in a sack, it concluded with a checkdown, and even those didn't work most of the time. JaMarcus Russell [14] is comically bad, and Derek Anderson was infuriating, but this is just depressing. By the way, did you know that Robert Royal can't catch the ball? We're not sure the Browns coaching staff knows this.

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Beanie Wells	ARI	86	2	32	0	58	39	19
Going 23 yards with a screen pass might be more valuable for the Cardinals than what Wells did on the ground. Neither he nor Tim Hightower have shown much ability in the receiving game so far, which is one of the few things holding the Arizona passing game back. If the Cardinals can stretch the field horizontally with Wells or Hightower coming out of the backfield, that can get a linebacker wide, which opens up the middle of the field for Anquan Boldin and his many crossing patterns, or get a safety shooting outside, which allows Larry Fitzgerald to shoot up the middle of the field and stretch it vertically.
2.	Reggie Bush	NO	83	1	15	1	50	36	14
We could flip that comment and apply it to Bush, who teams haven't been taking seriously as a runner for a while. Unfortunately, even though his performance on the ground grades out well, the fact that it was the Rams is being underestimated. Bush's six carries include runs of 16 and 55 yards ... and then four carries for three yards each. That's just like a regular Reggie Bush [18] day, but the peaks and valleys were higher than usual.
3.	Chris Johnson	TEN	132	2	100	0	46	-8	53
How do you get -8 rushing DYAR despite scoring two touchdowns and running for 132 yards? You start by playing the defense ranked 31st in the league against the run [19]. Although you have those four runs between 22 and 32 yards, all of which are very valuable, you get the ball 22 more times and run for a combined 28 yards. Of those 22 carries, only three were considered to be "successful" runs, plays that did more to push the Titans towards a new set of downs than they did to prevent them from achieving that goal. He was stuffed once from the 1-yard line, and nearly ran the Titans out of field goal range with a four-yard loss on third down from the Bills 29. Off course, he was great enough as a receiver that even a mediocre day on the ground was overcome.
4.	Michael Turner	ATL	111	0	0	0	45	45	0
Turner was en route to a third consecutive dominant game -- heck, he had a dominant game in the few carries he got -- before suffering what appears to be a high ankle sprain. It's a debiliating injury that can slow down backs for weeks on end, even if they can make it into the lineup. Turner's a very tough player, but it's difficult to see his season reaching the peaks that his numbers were suggesting early Sunday afternoon.
5.	Matt Forte	CHI	41	0	120	0	44	-6	50
Unlike Johnson, Forte's disappointing rushing DYAR did not come up with huge raw numbers. On the other hand, the Bears were content to let the 49ers blitz and get the ball to Forte in the open field, yielding 120 YAC on eight catches. And hey, Jay Cutler [20] never threw an interception on a pass that was intended for Forte!

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Kevin Smith	DET	55	0	10	0	-28	-12	-16
-12 DYAR against the Vikings is to be expected for Smith, and had he merely not fumbled in a seven-point game in the third quarter, it would have been close to a 0 DYAR day. The problem was instead as a receiver, where Smith failed to convert on two third downs and was the target of an incomplete pass on fourth-and-1.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Reggie Wayne	IND	10	12	126	12.6	2	79
Reggie Wayne [21] doesn't often merit inclusion in the Andre Johnson-Larry Fitzgerald "Best Receiver In The NFL" arguments, mainly because it's easy to chalk up his success to Peyton Manning [15]. He deserves better. Of course, he benefits from getting passes from Manning, just like Johnson gets throws from the criminally underrated Matt Schaub, and Fitzgerald is the recipient of passes from Kurt Warner [3]. Wayne also makes the crucial sight adjustments to his routes that Manning needs to succeed without making throws that look stupid in the process (see his fourth-quarter pick). Maybe Fitzgerald or Johnson would be just as good in the same role. On the other hand, maybe Wayne would be just as good in theirs.
2.	Sidney Rice	MIN	7	9	201	28.7	0	73
We apologize for doubting Sidney Rice [22] in earlier editions of Quick Reads; even if you're playing the Lions, 200 yards is pretty great. It's not an infallible sign of brilliance -- Drew Bennett, Chris Chambers, Albert Connell, Kevin Curtis, Rod Gardner, and Amani Toomer have all had 200-yard games this decade -- but Rice has clearly graduated from possession receiver with a couple of big games to legitimate number one receiver.
3.	Jason Avant	PHI	8	9	156	19.5	0	69
Avant's only incompletion came as the "target" on the game-ending Hail Mary. He took advantage of the Chargers' cover issues in the slot, with six first downs on his eight catches, and 43 yards after the catch on the Eagles' biggest play of the day.
4.	Randy Moss	NE	9	16	179	19.9	2	58
We covered Moss at length in the Brady comment, but another point about the fourth-and-two decision: Why was Brady throwing to Kevin Faulk? Sure, if Faulk had moved six inches forward, there would have been a hundred stories about how Faulk was a veteran who knew where the sticks were. But Randy Moss [4] and Wes Welker were there, too. It seems like giving them a chance to get open might have been a good idea.
5.	Legedu Naanee	SD	3	3	42	14.0	1	49
Naanee's touchdown was a strangely blown coverage by Asante Samuel, but his three plays included a four-yard completion on second-and-5, an 18-yard pickup on third-and-2 with 2:45 left in the game, and the touchdown. Hard to do much better with the chances he got.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Miles Austin	DAL	4	9	20	5.0	0	-43
How the mighty have fallen! Bring back T.O.! Call up Joey Galloway! Get Raghib Ismail in for a tryout! In all seriousness, Austin had a bad game, dropping a pass or two and suffering from a couple of Tony Romo [11] misthrows. Austin's game is built on being a dynamic receiver after the catch, and Green Bay held him to seven YAC, all of which came in the fourth quarter. There will be better days.