Week 11 Quick Reads

Any time someone tells you there's a clear way to win in the NFL, they're lying. They might not know it, but they're lying. Week 11 was a great example of how purportedly perfect explanations of how to win in the NFL are flawed.

Pick a cliche, and Week 11 buried it. Seriously, let's run through them.

You need to convert on third down. Jason Campbell [1] was perfect on third down, and the Redskins scored six points and lost.

You need to win the turnover battle. Chicago was +3 in turnover differential against the Eagles until Jay Cutler [2]'s final pass, and they lost, 24-20.

You need to get touchdowns inside the red zone. Matt Cassel [3] was sacked twice inside the Steelers 10-yard-line, and the Chiefs came back for a win.

You need to win the overtime coin toss. Pittsburgh won the coin toss and lost.

You need a balanced offense. San Francisco was awful running a standard attack in the first half against Green Bay, and went virtually all-Shotgun in the second half to score 21 points.

You need to get out to an early lead. Cleveland went up 21-3 and promptly blew the lead by halftime, and promptly lost on the final play of the game.

You can fire up your team by bringing in a new coach. Buffalo fired Dick Jauron and promptly came out with a flat performance against the Jaguars.

Crying during the week is another way to fire up your team. OK, maybe we're stretching it a little.

Regardless, it turns out the only way to ensure victory is to actually score more points than the other team. It's easy to see that happen and try and figure out a narrative that sounds correct afterwards(including the ones above), but none of those narratives enough to individually push a team into the winner's circle. The simple answer to winning football games is that there is no simple answer.

Here's a look at which players did the most to help their teams win in Week 11 according to Football Outsiders advanced stats. Click here [5] to learn more about what DYAR numbers mean and how they are computed.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
1.	Brett Favre	MIN	22/25	213	4	0	169	169	0
It's probably not a good time to prod Jets fans, but it's also hard to reconcile this Favre with the one that was under center for the Jets a year ago. Sure, Favre was suffering from a torn biceps tendon for a fair amount of the season, but he wasn't playing at this level at the beginning of the year, either. Favre's three disparate seasons for three different teams show that, even though quarterback is the most important position on the field, this is still a team game first. Scheme and teammates have a major effect on a player's performance.
2.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	33/45	344	2	0	166	158	8
Of course, the Packers aren't exactly missing Favre all that much. It was clear that the 49ers expected Rodgers to look for Donald Driver on third down, as Rodgers consistently has done so since taking over. With Driver taken away, though, Rodgers adapted nicely, finding Greg Jennings [6] and Jermichael Finley instead, and converting nine of 16 third downs in the process. Driver didn't get a single target on third down.
3.	Matt Stafford	DET	27/40	422	5	2	155	162	-7
Stafford put up more fantasy points than anyone else in Week 11 thanks to his final touchdown pass of the day, and he's owed 34 additional yards on pass interference penalties, but he finishes third on this list because of two interceptions, his intentional grounding in the end zone (that admittedly could have been called a hold), and a fumble on a sack. The nature of his performance -- mostly big plays -- suggests that he was simply exploiting a poor secondary downfield, not making the sort of consistently accurately throws that the Lions hope he'll be making in the future.
4.	Peyton Manning	IND	22/31	302	1	2	146	146	0
Manning seemed a tick off all day, with two interceptions on throws that were marginal at best. Of course, as hard as it is to read Manning, it might be even harder to figure out what Ed Reed's reading on a given play. As FO colleague Aaron Schatz noted, Sunday was the Tom Santi show, with Manning throwing eight passes to his third tight end, who hadn't caught a pass all season. Santi caught the first six, but then fumbled that sixth pass away, and followed that with two incompletions to end the day. In other words, don't even think about using your waiver priority.
5.	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	32/42	400	3	2	141	143	-2
Roethlisberger takes deserved praise for standing tall in the pocket amidst rushers aplenty, but the downside to that game is the beating he takes. As a mammoth human being, Roethlisberger can take more than most quarterbacks, but the knee to the head he took on the game's final play became Big Ben's fourth concussion since turning pro. After the game, head coach Mike Tomlin wouldn't admit that Roethlisberger had a concussion, instead noting that Roethlisberger had a "concussion-oriented" injury. That likely owes itself to Roger Goodell's recent mandate that players suffering a concussion need to see an independent neurologist and receive a clean bill of health before returning to the field. No word yet on what quarterbacks with "concussion-oriented injuries" need to do to make it back.
6.	Brady Quinn	CLE	21/33	304	4	0	138	132	5
Quinn didn't take a huge step forward between his debacle of a Monday night against the Ravens and his game against the Lions; he was the same quarterback, just up against a defense that lacked a pass rush and routinely forgot to cover receivers 30 yards downfield. It looked like the Brady Quinn [7] because it essentially was the Brady Quinn [7] from Notre Dame, overmatched defense and all.
7.	Eli Manning	NYG	25/39	384	3	1	137	137	0
Eli struggled early, with a fumble and two dropped interceptions to go along with an ugly throw into double coverage that actually was picked off. He improved as the game went along, though, thanks to a mix of blown coverages and excellent throws down each sideline. It's easy to forgive the occasional bad quarter when you're close to 10 yards per completion.
8.	Tom Brady	NE	28/41	310	1	0	136	158	-22
We'll get to Wes Welker [8] later, but Brady did an excellent job of identifying the Jets' goals with their coverage schemes and adjusting. With Randy Moss out of the picture, Brady simply found Welker again and again. On throws that weren't to Welker, though, Brady was 13-of-24 for 118 yards, with the touchdown to Moss his star receiver's only notable play of the day.
MNF.	Matt Schaub	HOU	25/38	305	2	0	117	117	0
9.	Kurt Warner	ARI	15/19	203	2	0	104	104	0
Warner was virtually perfect outside of a botched snap before suffering a "head injury" and leaving the game. No word on whether it, too, was concussion-related. It's not surprising that Warner would get hurt, as the attrition rate for quarterbacks of his age and with his injury history is extremely high. With the Cardinals' relatively easy schedule going forward, though, the team can afford to rest Warner for a week or two if need be.
10.	Philip Rivers	SD	17/22	145	1	0	99	99	0
It wasn't your typical Philip Rivers [9] day by any stretch of the imagination. Rivers threw only two passes further than ten yards downfield, a completion to Antonio Gates that went 17 yards in the air, and a 43-yard incompletion to Vincent Jackson. Instead, he went 13-of-14 in the first half while San Diego built a lead.
11.	Drew Brees	NO	19/29	187	3	0	99	99	0
In the same vein, coincidentally, Drew Brees [10] threw exactly one pass more than 15 yards downfield, and that was a 45-yard incompletion to Robert Meachem. With Tampa Bay taking away the deep ball, Brees simply went underneath and found little-used tight end David Thomas and seemingly little-used star wide receiver Marques Colston, who had four first downs on five catches.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
12.	Joe Flacco	BAL	23/34	256	0	1	91	105	-14
Flacco had some clear mechanical issues in the first half, sailing his throws and struggling with his accuracy in a stretch that saw him go 3-of-9 for 11 yards. Something changed at halftime, because he came out a different player, highlighted by a totally different sort of stretch -- six consecutive first downs, yielding 76 yards in the process.
13.	Matt Ryan	ATL	26/46	268	2	0	91	90	1
Unlike Flacco, Ryan's streakiness required no buffer. In the third and fourth quarters, Ryan had one of the more remarkable two-faced stretches you'll ever see. After a run of seven consecutive incompletions, Ryan completed his next ten passes in a row. It wasn't a change in style, either; Ryan's incompletion streak involved only one pass past eight yards, while his completion streak was also mostly short stuff.
14.	Chad Henne	MIA	17/29	172	1	0	69	69	0
Streak mania continues: Chad Henne [11] threw eight consecutive passes that were fewer than eight yards away from the line of scrimmage, all to the right side of the field. Unlike the last two quarterbacks, though, this wasn't exactly a good thing: Those passes went for a combined 33 yards and one first down.
15.	David Garrard	JAC	21/30	216	1	1	53	69	-16
OK, joke's over. Our last streak comment recognizes Garrard's brilliance at the end of the game against the Bills. Garrard very possibly may have saved the Jaguars' season by finishing up 10-of-11 for 121 yards with six first downs and a touchdown. Six of Mike Sims-Walker's nine targets came in that streak.
16.	Tarvaris Jackson	MIN	6/8	77	1	0	51	52	-1
17.	Alex Smith	SF	16/33	227	3	1	38	36	2
Alex Smith [12] under center: 1-of-5, -5 yards, two sacks, and an interception. Alex Smith [12] in the shotgun: 15-of-28, 232 yards, one sack, three touchdowns, no interceptions. Most of those totals came in the second half and after Al Harris and Aaron Kampman had suffered season-ending knee injuries, but it's pretty clear that Smith belongs in the shotgun at something close to a full-time basis. It's up to Mike Singletary to decide whether he wants to build the offense of his dreams or one that wins football games.
18.	Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	17/32	183	2	1	37	39	-2
Gradkowski's a hero because he "led" the Raiders to a comeback victory. Never mind that said comeback came almost exclusively thanks to the presence of reserve Bengals cornerback Morgan Trent, or that Gradkowski's one dalliance towards the Bengals' starting corners very nearly ended in a game-ending interception by Johnathan Joseph. Or that Gradkowski was 1-of-5 on third down all day despite facing third downs with three (twice), four, and five yards to go.
19.	Donovan McNabb	PHI	23/32	244	2	1	32	31	1
Philly's offense works when they get consistent yardage from their passing game on first down. McNabb did that, going 11-of-12 while averaging over 12 yards per attempt. Things weren't so nice on third down, though, where McNabb threw an interception, took a huge sack, and only converted three of his nine chances.
MNF.	Vince Young	TEN	12/22	116	1	0	28	13	15
20.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	18/30	297	1	2	23	23	0
Give credit to the Jaguars' defense: It's hard to make a really bad quarterback look this good. Fitzpatrick missed a handful of open receivers, threw an ugly interception that should have had a couple of friends, and would be well into the negative side of the ledger if it wasn't for a 98-yard touchdown pass to Terrell Owens that owed its success almost entirely to Owens.
21.	Carson Palmer	CIN	14/22	207	0	1	23	8	14
14 of Palmer's 26 dropbacks came with ten or more yards to go. He actually picked up first downs on six of them, an impressive figure; on the other 12 dropbacks, though, he only picked up three first downs, fumbled twice, was sacked twice, and threw an interception on a Hail Mary.
22.	Matt Cassel	KC	15/30	248	2	0	14	14	0
Taking a sack is a damaging play for any quarterback, but taking two sacks in three plays is bad. Even worse is when those two sacks come inside the opposition's ten-yard line. As with Gradkowski, Cassel nearly threw the game he won away with an interception late, and as with Fitzpatrick, he'd be towards the bottom of this list if it weren't for his two big plays at the end of the game with Chris Chambers.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
23.	Jason Campbell	WAS	24/37	256	0	1	13	13	0
Whoa. What a weird day. Campbell was 12-of-12 on third down, picking up 150 yards and seven first downs in the process. He extended virtually every one of the Redskins' drives, and helped keep the Cowboys offense off of the field in the process. The reason he's 23rd, of course, is because he was 12-of-25 for 106 yards on first and second down. On the bright side, Campbell only took one sack, and his interception was a fluky bounce off of a defender's helmet. Because of the situation, it ranks as an extremely important play; take it out and Campbell goes from 23rd to 14th.
24.	Tony Romo	DAL	15/27	158	1	1	2	-3	5
Romo's consistently been a quarterback who gets better as the game goes along throughout his career, and that happened to be the case on Sunday. On Dallas's final drive, Romo was 7-of-8 for 60 yards, while he also scrambled for a key first down on third-and-3 from the Dallas 47.
25.	Jay Cutler	CHI	24/42	171	1	1	1	-5	6
It's almost a victory for Cutler to throw a single interception in a game, but Cutler's previously been effective when he wasn't throwing picks. Averaging just over four yards an attempt is ugly. Some of that has to do with the effectiveness of the Eagles' pass rush and Ron Turner's desire to not have Cutler killed by his porous offensive line, but there was a stretch where Cutler was 2-of-7 for two yards. Seriously.
26.	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	19/26	231	0	1	-4	-10	6
Hasselbeck was, at the very least, significantly better than Seneca Wallace, who accrued -34 DYAR in four attempts.
27.	Matt Leinart	ARI	10/14	77	0	0	-14	-14	0
28.	Kyle Orton	DEN	15/29	171	0	1	-17	-17	0
Orton's ankle injury a year ago foretold a significant decline in his performance level, but it seems like his injury isn't anywhere near as severe this time around. Of course, team doctors could have amputated Orton's leg from the ankle down and he still would've outplayed Chris Simms. Then again, that would put Orton in a permanent Captain Morgan's position, and that would result in his permanent expulsion from the NFL. So it's a thin line. (Simms ended up with -66 passing DYAR on the day.)
29.	Jake Delhomme	CAR	19/40	227	1	1	-24	-32	9
The Panthers never trailed by more than 11 points. Why did they have Jake Delhomme [13] drop back to pass 44 times? He threw 16 times on first down -- 16 times! Predictably, they resulted in six completions, 78 yards, and four first downs. They only ran the ball 15 times on first down, and while they got 66 yards, they put the team in far better situations than Delhomme's 10 incompletions.
30.	Marc Bulger	STL	19/37	215	0	1	-27	-27	1
Bulger's only success in this game was targeting Mike Adams, who was playing for an injured Bryant McFadden. And Bulger couldn't even do that very well. Admittedly, he's playing with a subpar group of receivers, but aren't quarterbacks supposed to make their receivers better?
31.	Josh Freeman	TB	17/32	126	1	3	-76	-92	15
32.	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	8/21	136	1	4	-152	-155	3
Here's why the Jets should've started Kellen Clemens first. It's very clear that Sanchez isn't ready to play right now. He has a great arm, and makes the occasional excellent pass, but he's not ready. He makes the sort of awful decisions you expect from a quarterback that just doesn't have the experience you need to play at this level. Had the Jets started Clemens, they could've eventually turned to Sanchez had their season gone South, which it has, and used him without any expectations of success. After starting Sanchez and beginning the season on a hot streak, the expectations for Sanchez were raised, only for Sanchez to naturally struggle. Now, if Sanchez gets benched, he loses his confidence and they have to start over with him next year. If he plays ... you get days like these. Rock, meet hard place.

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Ryan Grant	GB	129	1	16	0	67	63	4
Green Bay's offensive line has taken a lot of knocks this year, but Sunday was clearly their best game of the season. Aaron Rodgers [14] only took two sacks in 48 dropbacks, and they opened up huge holes on the ground for Ryan Grant [15], whose previous success had been limited to games against awful run defenses. Grant's 21 carries produced eight first downs and a touchdown, and he only had two carries for negative yardage.
2.	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	122	0	9	0	50	49	2
Amazingly, DeAngelo Williams [16] did not get a single carry -- not one -- on third down. Jake Delhomme [13] got chances to convert third-and-1 and third-and-3, and threw an incompletion and an interception. He threw an incompletion and took a sack on his two third-and-7 attempts, took two sacks on third-and-8, and another sack on third-and-9. We're not just cherry-picking plays, either; those are all his attempts on third and less than ten. Just give Williams the ball instead. What's the worst that happens, he gets no gain? At least he doesn't give the ball away or lose eight yards.
3.	Kevin Smith	DET	45	0	104	1	42	-8	50
One day, we will all look back at the Browns and wonder how they simultaneously had Shaun Rogers and, yet, had such an awful run defense. The easiest answer, of course, is Eric Mangini.
4.	Mike Bell	NO	75	2	5	0	34	32	2
Bell scored twice in 13 carries, had first down runs of 16 and 28 yards, never rushed for negative yardage, and 10 of his 13 carries went for three yards or more. That's a great little game.
5.	Rock Cartwright	WAS	67	0	73	0	33	5	29
In the early days of Football Outsiders, one of the site's cult heroes was Washington fullback Rock Cartwright [17], who'd put up great numbers in limited time. In his most active year, 2003, Cartwright ran 107 times for 411 yards. That yielded an unimpressive 3.84 yards per carry, but because of the strength of the opposition and the situations he was running in (lots of short-yardage downs), his 9.8% DVOA was tenth in the league [18]. Cartwright only had more than five carries in one of the ensuing five seasons, so it was nice to see him finally get a chance to see the ball on Sunday after Ladell Betts went down with a lamentable knee injury. Cartwright promptly busted out a 34-yard run and averaged more than five yards a carry. He'll be Washington's starting back until Clinton Portis returns.

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Marshawn Lynch	BUF	18	0	0	0	-37	-37	0
Jacksonville has a pretty good run defense, the sixth-best in football by DVOA [19]. Buffalo has a patchwork offensive line that now has another hole in it, thanks to Eric Wood's gruesome broken tibia and fibula. They also are starting arguably the worst quarterback in football, and that includes Reggie Wayne. None of these things helped Marshawn Lynch [20], but eight carries for 18 yards with two fumbles is just a disaster of a day.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Wes Welker	NE	15	17	192	12.8	0	96
Welker sets an all-time record for DYAR by a wide receiver who didn't actually score a touchdown. He came close, taking a 43-yard catch-and-run to the Jets' three-yard line (on one of the worst blown coverages you'll ever see), but it didn't matter; he was slicing the Jets up all day. New York thought they'd adjusted their coverage properly at halftime, but Welker promptly went out and caught five more passes in the fourth quarter. Welker does get a nice DYAR bump because his big day came against the third-ranked DVOA pass defense.
2.	Calvin Johnson	DET	7	11	161	23.0	1	65
It's funny how the chatter about quarterback and wide receiver not being on the same page seems to fade away when the Browns come to town, huh? Maybe they could be reappropriated as traveling therapists. The first three passes to Johnson were incompletions, and Stafford threw a pick with him as the intended target, but everything else was completed, and Johnson is owed 31 yards for defensive pass interference on the penultimate play of the game.
3.	Greg Jennings	GB	5	7	126	25.2	1	58
4.	Sidney Rice	MIN	6	7	89	14.8	2	50
An innocent thought: Remember how the Vikings brought in T.J. Houshmandzadeh for a visit this offseason, and tried to keep him from leaving their complex before he headed to Seattle and signed there? Let's pretend that Houshmandzadeh falls in love with the Vikings and signs whatever contract they were offering. With Houshmandzadeh in the fold, the team doesn't draft Percy Harvin in the first round, costing them their most dynamic player. They also take away Rice's starting job, leaving them with an arguably inferior player at a significantly higher salary. Oh, and chances are that they don't have the cap room to tempt Brett Favre [21] back into playing. And the Vikings would have been happy to do all that. Sometimes, teams get saved from themselves.
5.	Anquan Boldin	ARI	8	9	103	12.9	1	49
It's widely-perceived that Larry Fitzgerald is an elite red zone target. He's been very good this year, but in previous seasons, he hasn't really put up great numbers. Instead, the perception that he's great draws attention to him and opens up opportunities for Anquan Boldin [22], who has had great red zone numbers. Boldin's touchdown on Sunday was a perfect example.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Brandon Gibson	STL	5	17	61	12.2	0	-49
If you made a list of all the receivers in NFL history that have been targeted 15 or more times in one game, Brandon Gibson [23] is almost undoubtedly the worst player on that list, and not by a tiny margin. Gibson was being covered by Mike Adams for most of the second half, which is why he was getting so many passes. His particular low point was dropping a pass in the end zone that would have given St. Louis a chance to tie the game on a two-point conversion. It was not his only drop on the day.

Best DYAR Games by WR with no TD, 1994-2009
Player	Team	Year	Week	Opponent	Opp. Rank (Pass Def)	DYAR	YAR	Pass	Rec	Yds	Runs
Wes Welker [8]	NE	2009	11	NYJ	3	95	68	17	15	192	1 for 11
Keenan McCardell	JAC	1996	8	STL	13	92	101	20	16	232	None
Jerry Rice	SF	1994	15	SD	20	92	102	12	12	144	1 for 18
Koren Robinson	SEA	2002	15	ATL	8	89	94	11	8	143	1 for 10
Jeff Graham	CHI	1994	13	ARI	7	83	75	10	8	154	None

(Ed. Note: Quick Reads appears on ESPN Insider on Monday, then gets republished on FO on Tuesdays, with added ratings for Monday Night Football.