by Aaron Schatz
One of the things that makes DVOA distinctly different from other "power ratings" across the Web is that, once you get past the midpoint of the season, it doesn't often have strong reactions to single games. That's because it takes every play into account rather than concentrating on just the last couple weeks. Even "weighted DVOA" counts the last eight weeks at 95 to 100 percent strength and doesn't seriously begin to discount plays until you get to games that were played two months ago. So when the best teams go out there and take care of business, the ratings are going to remain the same. This week's top four are the same as last week's top four -- New England, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Philadelphia -- and while there's a little shuffling below, the same teams that were ranked 1-10 last week are ranked 1-10 this week.
That's not to say there aren't some changes. For example, this week San Diego passes Denver for the first time in 2009. The Denver collapse has been quite remarkable, especially if you look at the FO playoff odds [1]. Just four weeks ago, we listed Denver with a 98.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, including a 96 percent chance of winning the division and a 71 percent chance of getting a first-round bye. This week, the Broncos' chances of making the playoffs are listed at 57.2 percent, with only a 20 percent chance of winning their division. San Diego's win over Denver raised the chances of the Chargers making the playoffs by 38 percent, and cut the chances of the Broncos making the playoffs by 24 percent.
This also marks the first week the chances of a team going 16-0 went over 10 percent. The Colts are about twice as likely as the Saints to pull it off, although the Saints' chances will get a lot better if they can beat New England this week. No particular Indianapolis opponent has a strong chance of a win, but still, the odds are good that the Colts will stumble in one of the six games. It happens, and not always when you expect it. Just ask the 1998 Broncos.
I don't have much time to get into commentary this week, because the short Thanksgiving week means I have to get the ESPN content done earlier. I'll make it up to everyone by doing a mailbag in next week's DVOA commentary. Usually I don't read all the comments closely -- too many to get through -- but this week I'll check out the comments, take a few questions you may have about why the ratings say specific things about specific teams, and do up some answers next Tuesday.
* * * * *
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 11 weeks of 2009, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [2].)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. WEIGHTED DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how well the team is playing right now.
As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: <team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA | LAST WEEK | WEIGHTED DVOA | RANK | W-L | OFFENSE DVOA | OFF. RANK | DEFENSE DVOA | DEF. RANK | S.T. DVOA | S.T. RANK | |
| 1 | NE | 39.7% | 1 | 42.0% | 1 | 7-3 | 32.5% | 1 | -5.9% | 9 | 1.2% | 12 |
| 2 | IND | 35.9% | 2 | 35.6% | 2 | 10-0 | 26.9% | 2 | -8.5% | 5 | 0.5% | 16 |
| 3 | NO | 32.5% | 3 | 30.4% | 3 | 10-0 | 26.0% | 3 | -7.9% | 7 | -1.4% | 23 |
| 4 | PHI | 30.4% | 4 | 28.6% | 5 | 6-4 | 14.2% | 12 | -10.9% | 2 | 5.3% | 4 |
| 5 | MIN | 27.6% | 6 | 29.1% | 4 | 9-1 | 17.1% | 7 | -1.6% | 15 | 8.9% | 1 |
| 6 | BAL | 25.4% | 5 | 23.4% | 7 | 5-5 | 16.6% | 10 | -8.8% | 4 | 0.0% | 19 |
| 7 | GB | 24.7% | 9 | 24.1% | 6 | 6-4 | 19.5% | 4 | -12.1% | 1 | -6.8% | 31 |
| 8 | ARI | 20.6% | 10 | 23.0% | 8 | 7-3 | 16.9% | 8 | -3.0% | 12 | 0.7% | 14 |
| 9 | DAL | 18.8% | 8 | 19.0% | 10 | 7-3 | 18.7% | 5 | 2.9% | 18 | 3.0% | 8 |
| 10 | PIT | 18.5% | 7 | 20.7% | 9 | 6-4 | 16.5% | 11 | -9.0% | 3 | -7.0% | 32 |
| 11 | NYG | 12.4% | 14 | 11.0% | 14 | 6-4 | 12.7% | 14 | -2.7% | 13 | -3.0% | 27 |
| 12 | MIA | 11.7% | 13 | 13.6% | 11 | 5-5 | 12.5% | 16 | 4.5% | 19 | 3.7% | 5 |
| 13 | SD | 9.9% | 16 | 12.9% | 12 | 7-3 | 18.6% | 6 | 7.7% | 22 | -0.9% | 21 |
| 14 | HOU | 9.3% | 15 | 12.2% | 13 | 5-5 | 16.6% | 9 | 10.4% | 25 | 3.1% | 7 |
| 15 | CIN | 8.0% | 11 | 7.4% | 15 | 7-3 | 12.4% | 17 | 1.8% | 17 | -2.6% | 26 |
| 16 | DEN | 6.8% | 12 | 4.5% | 16 | 6-4 | 5.6% | 18 | -4.5% | 10 | -3.3% | 28 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA | LAST WEEK | WEIGHTED DVOA | RANK | W-L | OFFENSE DVOA | OFF. RANK | DEFENSE DVOA | DEF. RANK | S.T. DVOA | S.T. RANK | |
| 17 | ATL | 4.2% | 17 | 2.9% | 17 | 5-5 | 13.8% | 13 | 10.0% | 24 | 0.4% | 17 |
| 18 | JAC | -1.5% | 18 | -3.0% | 20 | 6-4 | 12.5% | 15 | 13.9% | 28 | -0.1% | 20 |
| 19 | NYJ | -1.6% | 19 | -5.0% | 21 | 4-6 | -11.3% | 23 | -7.5% | 8 | 2.1% | 10 |
| 20 | SF | -2.0% | 20 | -2.2% | 18 | 4-6 | -10.5% | 22 | -7.9% | 6 | 0.6% | 15 |
| 21 | CAR | -7.4% | 22 | -2.7% | 19 | 4-6 | -4.0% | 20 | -1.9% | 14 | -5.3% | 30 |
| 22 | WAS | -9.4% | 21 | -8.7% | 22 | 3-7 | -11.4% | 24 | -3.0% | 11 | -1.0% | 22 |
| 23 | TEN | -12.8% | 24 | -13.1% | 23 | 4-6 | 3.3% | 19 | 13.7% | 27 | -2.4% | 25 |
| 24 | CHI | -17.1% | 25 | -17.8% | 24 | 4-6 | -17.2% | 27 | 5.5% | 20 | 5.6% | 3 |
| 25 | SEA | -17.9% | 23 | -19.3% | 25 | 3-7 | -9.3% | 21 | 9.5% | 23 | 1.0% | 13 |
| 26 | BUF | -20.9% | 26 | -23.7% | 26 | 3-7 | -22.6% | 30 | -0.2% | 16 | 1.5% | 11 |
| 27 | KC | -26.7% | 27 | -26.7% | 27 | 3-7 | -19.0% | 28 | 10.9% | 26 | 3.3% | 6 |
| 28 | TB | -33.8% | 28 | -33.2% | 28 | 1-9 | -15.7% | 26 | 20.5% | 29 | 2.4% | 9 |
| 29 | OAK | -38.4% | 31 | -38.2% | 30 | 3-7 | -32.9% | 32 | 5.9% | 21 | 0.4% | 18 |
| 30 | STL | -38.5% | 29 | -37.2% | 29 | 1-9 | -15.0% | 25 | 21.9% | 31 | -1.5% | 24 |
| 31 | CLE | -41.6% | 30 | -41.0% | 31 | 1-9 | -28.7% | 31 | 21.3% | 30 | 8.4% | 2 |
| 32 | DET | -52.3% | 32 | -53.6% | 32 | 2-8 | -22.4% | 29 | 25.0% | 32 | -4.9% | 29 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA | W-L | NON-ADJ TOT VOA | ESTIM. WINS | RANK | PAST SCHED | RANK | FUTURE SCHED | RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | NE | 39.7% | 7-3 | 37.1% | 7.5 | 4 | 1.2% | 16 | 4.7% | 11 | 16.5% | 21 |
| 2 | IND | 35.9% | 10-0 | 39.0% | 8.0 | 2 | 3.1% | 11 | -4.1% | 22 | 10.1% | 15 |
| 3 | NO | 32.5% | 10-0 | 41.1% | 8.1 | 1 | -8.7% | 30 | 2.4% | 16 | 6.1% | 4 |
| 4 | PHI | 30.4% | 6-4 | 36.7% | 6.8 | 7 | -5.4% | 26 | 6.2% | 9 | 23.2% | 29 |
| 5 | MIN | 27.6% | 9-1 | 35.1% | 7.5 | 3 | -10.1% | 32 | -0.1% | 18 | 5.5% | 1 |
| 6 | BAL | 25.4% | 5-5 | 26.5% | 7.0 | 6 | 2.4% | 15 | -9.2% | 27 | 7.6% | 6 |
| 7 | GB | 24.7% | 6-4 | 33.9% | 6.4 | 10 | -9.4% | 31 | -4.5% | 23 | 13.1% | 18 |
| 8 | ARI | 20.6% | 7-3 | 23.5% | 7.4 | 5 | -4.1% | 25 | -10.7% | 29 | 16.8% | 23 |
| 9 | DAL | 18.8% | 7-3 | 19.3% | 6.6 | 9 | -1.5% | 23 | 7.5% | 7 | 9.5% | 12 |
| 10 | PIT | 18.5% | 6-4 | 27.6% | 6.7 | 8 | -8.2% | 29 | 1.5% | 17 | 10.0% | 13 |
| 11 | NYG | 12.4% | 6-4 | 10.6% | 5.4 | 17 | 0.7% | 19 | 13.4% | 2 | 18.3% | 25 |
| 12 | MIA | 11.7% | 5-5 | 7.0% | 5.8 | 14 | 5.2% | 7 | 6.4% | 8 | 8.1% | 7 |
| 13 | SD | 9.9% | 7-3 | 9.9% | 5.9 | 12 | 0.8% | 18 | -12.7% | 31 | 8.9% | 11 |
| 14 | HOU | 9.3% | 5-5 | 11.9% | 6.0 | 11 | -2.3% | 24 | 5.9% | 10 | 8.2% | 9 |
| 15 | CIN | 8.0% | 7-3 | 10.8% | 5.8 | 13 | 2.9% | 13 | -16.9% | 32 | 28.2% | 31 |
| 16 | DEN | 6.8% | 6-4 | 6.0% | 5.7 | 15 | 3.7% | 9 | -2.6% | 19 | 17.8% | 24 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA | W-L | NON-ADJ TOT VOA | ESTIM. WINS | RANK | PAST SCHED | RANK | FUTURE SCHED | RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 17 | ATL | 4.2% | 5-5 | 3.8% | 5.4 | 16 | 6.5% | 3 | -5.4% | 24 | 10.0% | 14 |
| 18 | JAC | -1.5% | 6-4 | 0.9% | 5.1 | 18 | -5.9% | 27 | 10.6% | 6 | 21.4% | 28 |
| 19 | NYJ | -1.6% | 4-6 | 1.7% | 4.7 | 19 | 6.5% | 4 | -2.8% | 20 | 13.4% | 19 |
| 20 | SF | -2.0% | 4-6 | -8.3% | 4.6 | 20 | 3.3% | 10 | -11.8% | 30 | 8.4% | 10 |
| 21 | CAR | -7.4% | 4-6 | -15.6% | 4.3 | 21 | 5.3% | 5 | 15.3% | 1 | 19.4% | 27 |
| 22 | WAS | -9.4% | 3-7 | -2.0% | 4.2 | 22 | -7.8% | 28 | 13.1% | 3 | 8.1% | 8 |
| 23 | TEN | -12.8% | 4-6 | -22.1% | 4.2 | 23 | 7.7% | 2 | 4.4% | 12 | 41.1% | 32 |
| 24 | CHI | -17.1% | 4-6 | -14.9% | 3.7 | 24 | -0.7% | 22 | 2.9% | 14 | 11.3% | 16 |
| 25 | SEA | -17.9% | 3-7 | -20.0% | 2.9 | 27 | 1.1% | 17 | -10.6% | 28 | 18.8% | 26 |
| 26 | BUF | -20.9% | 3-7 | -17.0% | 3.6 | 25 | -0.5% | 21 | 12.6% | 4 | 14.2% | 20 |
| 27 | KC | -26.7% | 3-7 | -23.3% | 2.9 | 26 | 2.5% | 14 | -6.2% | 26 | 6.1% | 3 |
| 28 | TB | -33.8% | 1-9 | -37.9% | 2.4 | 28 | 12.0% | 1 | 2.8% | 15 | 12.5% | 17 |
| 29 | OAK | -38.4% | 3-7 | -41.9% | 2.3 | 30 | 2.9% | 12 | 3.7% | 13 | 23.4% | 30 |
| 30 | STL | -38.5% | 1-9 | -41.7% | 2.4 | 29 | 5.3% | 6 | -4.0% | 21 | 5.5% | 2 |
| 31 | CLE | -41.6% | 1-9 | -47.6% | 2.0 | 31 | 4.2% | 8 | -6.0% | 25 | 16.8% | 22 |
| 32 | DET | -52.3% | 2-8 | -50.3% | 1.6 | 32 | 0.6% | 20 | 11.9% | 5 | 6.8% | 5 |
Links:
[1] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
[2] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/methods#dvoa
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#estimated_wins
[4] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#variance