Week 12 Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

Their careers might not have turned out the way each of their respective organizations intended after selecting them in the 2006 NFL Draft, but Matt Leinart and Vince Young [1] each put on creditable performances in the Titans' thrilling 20-17 win over the Cardinals on Sunday.

Both Young (in his five starts since returning to the lineup) and Leinart (in his first start of the year) looked better on Sunday than they ever did as injury replacements or in mopup work during their periods on the bench. The reason why is simple: Practice.

While Leinart split reps with Kurt Warner in practice this week, being the expected first-team quarterback on Monday allows a passer a full week of opportunities to play alongside the ten players he'll be alongside on Sunday. That's several days to take snaps behind a first-team offensive line, who get a feel of where the quarterback lines up, where he moves in the pocket, and how to create lanes for him. It's several days of throwing to elite wide receivers and backs instead of flawed ones, while getting to read how they make their cuts and where they want the ball from under center. The playbook is implemented with that quarterback's strengths and weaknesses in mind. Coaches focus their instruction on him. Timing and accuracy both improve. There's a lot of advantages to being the expected starting quarterback for an NFL team.

All of that would be myth if the numbers didn't back up the logical thinking above, but this is a case where the data backs conventional wisdom. In our records, there are 20 quarterbacks since 1994 that have thrown 100 passes as both a starting quarterback and as a backup. Those passers have put up a collective quarterback rating of 80.3 as starters, but are only at 73.6 as reserves, a difference of about nine percent.

While Leinart's likely heading to the bench, there's every reason to believe that Young's improved performance as a starter is real. He may not approach 400 yards every week, but as long as Young gets to practice with the first team during the week, it should make for better weekends for both him and the Titans.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
MNF.	Drew Brees	NO	18/23	371	5	0	251	251	0
Most DYAR by a quarterback with fewer than 25 pass attempts: 1) Peyton Manning [3], Week 10 of 2002 vs. Philadelphia: 273 DYAR, 18-of-23 for 319 yards, 3 TD, 0 sacks. 2) Drew Brees [4], Week 12 of 2009 vs. New England: 251 DYAR 3) Jeff Blake, Week 8 of 1995 vs. Pittsburgh: 251 DYAR, 18-of-22 for 275 yards, 3 TD, 0 sacks, plus three carries for 33 rushing yards. 4) Carson Palmer [5], Week 7 of 2009 vs. Chicago: 247 DYAR, 20-of-24, 233 yards, 5 TD, 0 sacks. 5) Kurt Warner, Week 12 of 2001 vs. Atlanta: 235 DYAR, 17-of-23 for 342 yards, 4 TD, 2 sacks. 6) Jay Fiedler, Week 13 of 2003 vs. Dallas: 234 DYAR, 16-of-19 for 239 yards, 3 TD, 1 sack, plus a rushing touchdown. 7) Peyton Manning [3], Week 14 of 2007 vs. Baltimore: 228 DYAR, 13-of-17, 249 yards, 4 TD, 0 sacks. 8) Jake Delhomme [6], Week 16 of 2004 vs. Tampa Bay, 19-of-24, 214 yards, 4 TD, 1 sack. None of these games had an interception.
1.	Brett Favre	MIN	32/48	392	3	0	218	218	0
Not even the most hopelessly optimistic Vikings fan could've predicted that Favre would put together numbers like these. Favre had never posted a DVOA higher than 30% in his career [7] before 2009, but his dominance of the Bears should push him up around 45% or so. The interceptions which served as the easy knock against him throughout his career have disappeared; he's thrown 24 touchdowns against only three picks, yielding an 8:1 ratio that's unmatched by any quarterback over a full season in the history of the league. The only quarterback even above a 6:1 ratio over a full season is Tom Brady in 2007. His interception rate of 0.8 percent would be the lowest ever for a quarterback in a season with over 300 attempts. That's fluky low and likely to bounce back some, but it's pretty clear that this is the best season Brett Favre [7]'s ever had.
2.	Philip Rivers	SD	21/28	317	2	0	196	199	-3
Back when Rivers vs. Cutler seemed to be the battle that would decide the AFC West for a decade, people used the same sort of adjectives about Rivers that they say now about Cutler: Cocky, spoiled, petulant, various unprintables. Very little has changed about Rivers' style, but because he's playing for a winner, you don't hear those words about him anymore.
3.	Vince Young	TEN	27/43	387	1	0	165	177	-12
Young converted nine of the 18 third or fourth downs he faced, including five plays in such situations of 15 yards or more. If you're a Nate Washington owner in fantasy football, you might want to be concerned -- Young clearly doesn't have a great rapport with Washington in the passing game, and while Washington was targeted nine times on Sunday, those passes only yielded three completions, and all five of Young's fourth quarter passes to Washington fell incomplete. Washington could lose time going forward to Lavelle Hawkins, who Young (ironically, for the purposes of our intro) worked with as part of the second-team offense.
4.	Tony Romo	DAL	18/29	309	2	0	154	154	0
It's hard for a quarterback to put up big DYAR totals while converting on only one of the nine third downs he faced, but Romo was able to do so thanks to big plays on first and second down. It also wasn't exactly all Romo's fault; he was victimized by drops, and he faced third downs that required 11, 15, 17, 23, and 24 yards for conversion.
5.	Matt Schaub	HOU	31/42	284	2	2	135	130	5
The difference between All-Pro Schaub (first half, end of fourth quarter) and Terrifying Schaub (third quarter, first half of fourth quarter) is turnovers. Schaub had three of them in a 14-dropback span, helping to turn a six-point lead into a 15-point deficit.
6.	Kyle Orton	DEN	18/28	245	1	1	115	115	0
Much like Romo, Orton succeeded despite struggling on third down, converting only his final two chances at one. Orton didn't dial up the big plays that Romo did, but he was devastating on second down, going 10-of-12 for 125 yards and five first downs.
7.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	28/39	348	3	0	91	91	0
Rodgers had a field day picking on dreadful Lions corner Will James, resulting in a big game for Donald Driver (who finished ninth with 36 DYAR). Ryan Grant and the Packers' rushing attack placed Rodgers in manageable third down situations, which helped convert on eight of his 13 chances. Rodgers only once faced a third down with more than eight yards to go, and had to pick up an average of only 6.1 yards on those 13 dropbacks.
8.	Peyton Manning	IND	27/35	244	3	2	89	89	0
The Texans focused their defense on Reggie Wayne, who was the intended target on two picks and caught only three passes for 19 yards. Sunday was the first time since 2006 that Wayne didn't have more than 64 yards against the Texans, and it was his lowest yardage total in a non-Week 17 "Sorgi Special" since a seven-yard performance against the Broncos in 2002. So, instead, Manning just went 9-of-12 for 133 yards, six first downs, and a touchdown to Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. While every Colts game usually yields a textbook throw from Manning, his 24-yard throw to Garcon in the third quarter was the absolute perfect example of a throw to beat the Cover-2.
9.	Josh Freeman	TB	20/29	250	2	0	79	72	7
Our David Lewin suggested in March that Josh Freeman [8] would end up being the best quarterback of this draft class. So far, he looks to be absolutely right. The issue with Freeman, as it is with many rookie quarterbacks, is his propensity for turning the ball over: His fumble on Sunday made it seven on the year, to go along with eight interceptions in only four starts. If he can hold onto the ball, his accuracy and arm strength are clearly enough to make him a worthwhile NFL quarterback.
10.	Joe Flacco	BAL	23/35	289	1	0	67	67	0
The complexion of last year's first Ravens-Steelers matchup was changed when Joe Flacco [9] was sacked by James Harrison and fumbled, with LaMarr Woodley picking up the fumble and returning it for a touchdown. This year, another Flacco fumble nearly cost the Ravens the game, as the Ravens passed up a shot at a 51-yard field goal to try and get additional yardage, despite not having any timeouts. In a situation where the only two rules are don't get sacked and don't turn the ball over, Flacco was sacked and fumbled. While the refs blew the call on whether Flacco's fumble could be advanced, the sack cost the Ravens their shot at a field goal within Billy Cundiff's range, and considering that the Steelers won the coin toss to start overtime, there was a possibility that Flacco's fumble could very well have ended up costing the Ravens the game. Our numbers underestimate how damaging the sack was.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
11.	Chris Redman	ATL	23/39	243	2	0	66	65	0
Redman looked pretty good when Bobby Petrino gave him a chance in 2007, putting up a 5.5% DVOA [10] that was far better than the performances of Joey Harrington (-5.8%) or Byron Leftwich (-65.0%). He's immobile and takes too many sacks, but considering our discussion about how quarterbacks improve with first-team reps, it was a pretty nice performance by Redman, all things considered. Matt Ryan isn't likely to miss time with his turf toe injury, but it's a painful injury that could flare up and force Ryan out of a game for a chunk of time. In other words, Redman's last pass this season probably won't be the touchdown he threw to Roddy White.
12.	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	13/17	154	0	1	51	37	13
The Jets' offense made Sanchez look good over the first three weeks of the year; without having to come from behind, Gang Green could run the ball on most plays and put Sanchez in manageable situations with high-percentage throws. The team's struggles after their three-game winning streak stretched Sanchez into a quarterback he's not ready to be. If they could play Carolina and get a pick-six to start off the game every week, Sanchez would look a lot like this quarterback. Unfortunately, they can't.
13.	Donovan McNabb	PHI	21/35	260	1	1	46	46	0
MNF.	Tom Brady	NE	21/36	237	0	2	45	50	-5
14.	Matt Leinart	ARI	21/31	220	0	0	43	43	0
The biggest issue with Leinart, in our eyes, is his footwork. It takes the 6-foot-5 Leinart eons to drop back, giving NFL pass rushers ample time to get into the backfield. He also has the sort of accuracy issues and general rust that you see from quarterbacks that haven't played in a while, problems that would likely alleviate themselves if he was given consistent practice and playing time as a starter.
15.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	17/26	246	1	1	34	6	28
Fitzpatrick's 28 rushing DYAR are the most for any quarterback in a single game this year, coming thanks to a 31-yard touchdown run as well as three conversions on either third or fourth down. He ran because he wasn't safe in the pocket; the Dolphins sacked Fitzpatrick six times, including a stretch of three consecutive dropbacks.
16.	David Garrard	JAC	26/36	307	0	0	23	24	-1
Garrard's raw numbers look good, but he ends up 16th because of how he performed inside the red zone. In five dropbacks, Garrard completed exactly one pass, for -2 yards. More importantly, he was sacked twice, fumbling both times and turning the ball over in the process.
17.	Jason Campbell	WAS	22/37	231	2	2	20	20	1
Ths was another week where a pretty poor Campbell performance was mitigated by a nice job on third down. Although he threw both his interceptions there, Campbell converted eight of the first 12 third downs he faced, which is great, but he failed to come through on even one of their final five. Of course, as our Doug Farrar noted regarding Campbell's final pass, " If Juqua Parker body-slammed Brady or Manning like he did Jason Campbell [11], he wouldn't be penalized -- he'd be deported."
18.	Chad Henne	MIA	17/31	175	1	3	18	18	0
Buffalo has a pretty good pass defense, and one of those interceptions was a Hail Mary attempt that ended the game, so Henne's numbers get a boost. Like Campbell, he also did his best work early on third down, completing his first seven passes on third down, and picking up four first downs and a touchdown in the process. After that, though, Henne had two incompletions and two picks, including that Hail Mary.
19.	Dennis Dixon	PIT	12/26	145	1	1	14	-7	21
They won't exactly be calling for Ben Roethlisberger's head in Pittsburgh, but it was a solid enough performance considering that Roethlisberger got the practice reps and Dixon was playing the Ravens. The interception that ended his day wasn't an awful throw, but an excellent play by fellow rookie Paul Kruger to react to the quick slant. Most times, that pass will get batted down as an incompletion, and as Dixon gets more chances to play, he'll learn to look off that defender and create space for the slanting receiver behind him.
20.	Eli Manning	NYG	24/40	241	0	1	8	6	2
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
21.	Alex Smith	SF	27/41	232	2	0	7	-1	7
Credit where credit's due: The 49ers noticed how well Smith played in the shotgun, and put him in it 28 times on pass plays. He actually wasn't all that great in it against the league's worst pass defense, picking up only four first downs and a touchdown, but it was the right idea.
22.	Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	18/35	200	1	0	-24	-33	9
On passes to wide receivers Darrius Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy, and Chaz Schillens, Gradkowski was 6-of-19 for 75 yards. Normally, that would mean that a quarterback is being weighed down by those wideouts, and the franchise needs to go out and acquire better wideouts for him to play with. Of course, these are the Raiders, who have spent huge gobs of free agent money and a top ten pick on wide receivers over the past two offseasons. They might just be better off with no wide receivers whatsoever.
23.	Carson Palmer	CIN	14/24	110	1	0	-25	-28	3
The Browns did a good job of getting in Palmer's face, but something else was off with Palmer and his receivers. He one-hopped a fair amount of throws. There were timing issues coming in and out of breaks. His performance was like a pitcher who doesn't have his best stuff; it was a lot of junky underneath patterns, with no deep patterns requiring huge velocity. They got the win, but 110 yards against the Browns just isn't enough. It won't be a big deal if it's just a one-week blip, but if there's a bigger problem than that, the Bengals are in serious trouble.
24.	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	14/25	102	0	0	-30	-38	8
105 yards against the Rams, though is just awful. Hasselbeck's longest completion through the air was 13 yards, and he only attempted one pass that went more than 14 yards downfield. It's not like the Rams have the sort of blistering pass rush that prevents quarterbacks from getting the time needed to allow receivers to get open deep. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who was supposed to revitalize the Seahawks' passing game, caught two passes on six attempts for 14 yards. Just a strange game.
25.	Kyle Boller	STL	28/46	282	1	2	-40	-48	8
26.	Brady Quinn	CLE	15/34	100	0	0	-60	-75	14
The roller coaster ride that is Brady Quinn [12] continues; since his return to the lineup, Quinn has two awful games against very tough pass defenses (Baltimore and Cincinnati) and one great game against a terrible pass defense (Detroit). San Diego and Pittsburgh are next, and neither of them are slouches. First down is supposed to be the easiest down to throw on, because teams are expecting the run, but Quinn was only 7-of-13 for 22 yards on the opening down.
27.	Matt Cassel	KC	20/31	178	1	1	-63	-64	1
Just ugly. One exchange with center Rudy Niswanger was botched, and another Niswanger snap went over Cassel's head. Cassel was intercepted once, strip-sacked on a play that was returned for a touchdown, and was called for intentional grounding in the end zone for a safety. On the bright side, he's built a rapport with Chris Chambers; maybe it was Chambers' old teammates in San Diego giving him some space out of kindness, but Chambers caught seven of the eight passes thrown to him, impressive totals for a player with a famously-low catch rate.
28.	Jay Cutler	CHI	18/23	147	1	2	-68	-67	-1
Completions aren't great when they're not pushing your team towards a new set of downs. Cutler only had four completions for ten yards or more, and while he was upright for a fair amount of the game, his last 11 dropbacks yielded four sacks and two picks.
29.	Matt Stafford	DET	20/43	214	1	4	-129	-131	2
When a struggling player has a huge game against a poor defense and coaches and media start spinning it as a huge step forward, don't buy it. More often than not, it's just a player taking advantage of awful D and looking good in the process. It's pretty clear from looking at his game log [13] that the five-touchdown game against the Browns is a huge outlier.
30.	Jake Delhomme	CAR	14/34	130	0	4	-168	-168	0
You can't really pin the freakish first interception that bounced off of Steve Smith's foot on Delhomme. Fine. He still threw three more and converted one of the ten third downs he faced. We were among those saying that Delhomme should be given time after his debacle to start the season against Philadelphia, but even if you throw out that game and this one, he's thrown more picks (ten) than touchdowns (eight). His contract extension this offseason, designed to free up cap space for Carolina, may end up being a huge albatross for the franchise.

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Fred Jackson	BUF	73	2	43	0	62	37	25
Jackson caught all five of the passes thrown to him, getting eight yards on four of those five. He didn't pick up negative yardage on a single one of his 15 carries, had four or more yards on nine carries, and scored on three- and seven-yard runs. There was no Chris Johnson [14] highlight reel run in his day, but it was marked by the absence of anything resembling a poor play.
2.	Steve Slaton	HOU	57	0	49	0	49	29	21
Instead of Ryan Moats, Slaton's clearly splitting time with Chris Brown, who is the team's best pass blocker in the backfield and Gary Kubiak's choice close to the goal line. Slaton's the far better runner and receiver, though; five of his ten carries went for first downs, and he caught seven of the eight passes thrown to him. The only one that fell incomplete was 25 yards downfield, and Slaton shouldn't be that deep anyway.
3.	Chris Johnson	TEN	154	1	32	0	47	41	6
A year ago, what made Johnson so dynamic was his ability as a receiver; this year, though, he's become more of a running back and less of a hybrid receiver. He caught three of the four passes thrown to him on Sunday, but only one of those passes went for a first down. His 85-yard run was obviously brilliant, but Johnson only ran for three first downs on his other 17 carries. Remember: the best run in the history of the NFL only scored six points, and you usually need a lot more than six points to win. Johnson had a good game, all things considered, but the Titans needed to convert three fourth downs on their final drive and score on the game's final play to win because they didn't do very much on offense outside of the Johnson touchdown run and that ultimate drive.
4.	Ray Rice	BAL	88	0	67	0	43	19	23
The most impressive play of the week, by our count, was the 44-yard pass that Rice caught against the Steelers in the fourth quarter. Specifically, it was the 35 yards of YAC that Rice picked up on the play, breaking three or four tackles in the process. That's one thing if it comes against the Browns or the Lions, but Rice was playing the Steelers. They don't miss tackles like that. Just a remarkable play by a remarkable player.
5.	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	88	1	19	0	43	40	3
The Giants signed Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard this offseason in the hopes that the pair would allow them to rotate defensive tackles in and out and keep the interior of their line fresh against the run, but thanks to injury and ineffectiveness amongst both those two and incumbents Jay Alford (out for the year) and Fred Robbins, that simply hasn't been the case. With defensive ends Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora taking wide routes to get to the passer, the Giants have struggled with backs running on the interior, and are allowing consistent yardage far too frequently. Moreno's longest run on the day was 12 yards, but he had six first downs and a touchdown on his 19 carries, with ten of them going for five yards or more. That's how you put your offense in manageable third downs, keep the ball, and score points.

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	40	0	10	0	-37	-20	-17
We fully expected the Jets' rush defense to crumble with Kris Jenkins out for the season, but it just hasn't happened. With Jenkins in the lineup, New York was allowing an average of 115.7 rushing yards per game; in the five games after Jenkins' placement on IR, Rex Ryan's defense has given up 99.2 rushing yards per game. Williams should have been able to rip apart the Jets without Jenkins, but it may be an injury on his side of the line -- Jordan Gross, out for the year with a fractured ankle -- that's causing him problems.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Percy Harvin	MIN	6	8	101	16.8	1	70
Five of Harvin's six completions resulted in either a first down or a touchdown, with each of those passes going for 12 yards or more. He's become the most effective slot receiver in football outside of Wes Welker, and should be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. It'll be interesting to see how he does when he's moved onto the line of scrimmage and doesn't have Favre throwing passes to him, but Harvin's done great work in the role allotted to him this year.
2.	Antonio Gates	SD	7	7	118	16.9	2	70
The sixth-highest DYAR game for a tight end since 1994. Gates is quietly on pace for his best season as a professional; his 59 catches are one fewer than he had in 16 games a year ago, and he is now on pace for a 1,200-yard campaign. He isn't getting into the end zone the way that he was at the beginning of his career, with his two touchdowns on Sunday representing half of his season's total, but he draws so much attention in the red zone that it opens up opportunities for the players around him.
MNF.	Marques Colston	NO	4	5	121	30.2	1	55
3.	Miles Austin	DAL	7	11	145	20.7	1	54
Even more impressive than Austin's numbers above is the fact that he spent a fair amount of his day against Nnamdi Asomugha, who normally erases wide receivers off the field. Outside of Vincent Jackson, who outplayd an injured Asomugha in Week 1, no one's done better work against the league's premiere cornerback this year than Austin. (In all fairness to Asomugha, he was not in coverage on Austin's touchdown, and was expecting a safety to be behind him in zone coverage on Austin's biggst play of the day, a 49-yard completion in the first quarter.)
4.	Terrell Owens	BUF	5	5	96	19.2	1	48
Only five catches against a pretty poor pass defense, but he caught everything that was thrown to him, nabbed three first downs, and put the game away with a 51-yard touchdown. He and Ryan Fitzpatrick [15] have actually turned out to have a pretty solid rapport, which is good, since they might be recreating it in the CFL in two years.
5.	Antonio Bryant	TB	3	4	91	30.3	1	46
There were finally signs of life from Bryant, who has followed his latest breakout sason with his latest missing year. Injuries, poor quarterback play, and general ineffectiveness have hampered Bryant's totals, but he still has the talent and the remarkable hands to be a dynamic receiver downfield. He's got five more games to make up for the first ten.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Calvin Johnson	DET	2	12	10	5.0	1	-41
Calvin Johnson [16] absolutely, positively should not have been on the field. He looked to be in constant pain, had trouble getting up off the ground, and appeared to re-injure himself more than once. He couldn't get downfield, so it wasn't like he was creating space for receivers to operate underneath. Six of his ten targets came in the fourth quarter, with the Lions down anywhere from 15 to 22 points. They might have been better off playing the K Records' Calvin Johnson [16] at that point. Jim Schwartz is a good coach, but he should've recognized Johnson's struggles and taken his helmet away.

(Ed. Note: Quick Reads appears on ESPN Insider on Monday, then gets republished on FO on Tuesdays, with added ratings for Monday Night Football.