Week 13 Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

Look at the boxscore of Sunday's Giants-Cowboys game and you'll see this line:

Brandon Jacobs 74 Yd Pass From Eli Manning [1] (Lawrence Tynes Kick)

In the NFL, we give both offensive players involved in a reception the same amount of credit for its yardage. In this case, Jacobs accrued 74 receiving yards and Manning picks up 74 passing yards.

Of course, if you watched the game, that's an absurd way to split the value of the pass. Manning threw a nice enough eight yard out to Jacobs from behind the line of scrimmage. From there, though, a poor angle taken by Cowboys outside linebacker Anthony Spencer, some good downfield blocking, and a couple of broken tackles by Jacobs resulted in a stunning 70 yards after the catch, meaning that just under 95 percent of the yardage gained on the play was accrued by Jacobs' running, not Manning's pass.

Although this is a particularly egregious example, it seems ridiculous to judge a 54-yard bomb downfield that results in 20 yards of YAC the same way that we do Manning's dumpoff to Jacobs. Research still needs to be done to the level of impact quarterbacks have on yards after the catch, but what if we look strictly at the percentage of their passing yards that comes through the air? Who gets the highest percentage of their passing yards off of their own arms?

The answer, coincidentally enough, is Eli Manning [1] himself. Among quarterbacks with 10 completions per game or more (a threshold of 120 completions on the season), Manning ranks as the league leader in percentage of passing yards through the air, at 60.1 percent. If we lower the requirements down to 100 completions, he's overtaken by Vince Young [2], who's at 60.9 percent on 107 completions. Immediately behind them are Mark Sanchez [3] (59.9 percent), Matt Ryan (59.4 percent), and and Carson Palmer [4] (58.8 percent).

On the flip side, the quarterback accruing the smallest percentage of his yards through the air is Jason Campbell [6]; only 45.1 percent of his passing yards come through the air. The other quarterbacks below 50 percent include Kyle Orton [7] (45.5 percent), Matt Hasselbeck [8] (45.7 percent), and Matthew Stafford [9] (47.0 percent). The average qualifying quarterback picks up 54.6 percent of his yards on his passes.

It's not that simple to split the value of a pass -- good routes by receivers help create opportunities for yards through the air, while balls thrown in stride create opportunities for yards after the catch -- but it's pretty clear that the current system is merely the simplest thrown-together solution as opposed to something approaching an equitable one. As statistical analysis of football improves, figuring out a better split between a quarterback's responsibility in a passing play and his receiver's responsibility will be ripe for analysis.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
1.	Jason Campbell	WAS	30/42	369	3	1	275	275	0
His pick on the Redskins' penultimate drive was an awful, ill-advised throw, the sort of bad decision he usually avoids with a checkdown or a sack, but Campbell otherwise had his best day as a pro by shredding the league's best pass defense. His 275 passing DYAR were the third-most in a game this year, and the best performance by anyone not named Drew Brees [10]. Our numbers overestimate his level of performance because they don't consider the injuries that were affecting the Saints' secondary, but the Saints were about as injured one week ago, and Campbell's numbers blew away Tom Brady [11]'s.
2.	Tony Romo	DAL	42/55	392	3	0	226	226	0
Only the most driven of Romo detractors could suggest that his performance represented the latest in a string in December disappointments. The Cowboys lost, but Romo completed nearly 75 percent of his passes while averaging 7.1 yards per attempt. That's great in 20 attempts, but it's even better over 57 dropbacks; had the Cowboys been able to run the ball for better than two yards an attempt, they would've scored more than 24 points.
3.	Philip Rivers	SD	18/25	373	2	0	200	201	-1
In another weird down split, Rivers' first pass on second down was an incompletion to Antonio Gates [12]. Suitably chastened, he promptly completed each of his other nine attempts on second down, gaining a total of 219 yards and picking up either a first down or a touchdown on each of the passes. That's nothing new for Rivers; 66.1 percent of his completions have resulted in either first downs or touchdowns, the highest such percentage in the league for any starting quarterback. Mark Sanchez [3] is second at 64.6 percent; competing for last (minimum: 50 attempts) are 49ers quarterbacks Alex Smith [13] and Shaun Hill, at 46.3 percent and 44.8 percent, respectively.
4.	Drew Brees	NO	35/49	419	2	1	190	190	0
The Redskins were able to get pressure on Brees with three and four pass rushers, allowing them to drop seven or eight defenders into coverage and shut down Brees' windows to throw deep. Once they struggled to get pressure, Brees was able to isolate LaRon Landry and Fred Smoot in coverage and take advantage of their weak wills. On first down, he was 16-of-23 for 212 yards with six first downs and two scores.
5.	Kurt Warner	ARI	22/32	285	3	0	183	183	0
Over his last four starts, Warner's thrown for 1089 passing yards and 12 touchdowns against zero interceptions. Actually, over his last three and a half starts, since he missed the second half of his game against the Rams with a concussion. He's accrued 725 passing DYAR, and ranked first, first, tenth (Rams game) and fifth in our weekly Quick Reads. Those are “Best Quarterback In The Universe” numbers, and he's playing the 49ers, Lions, and Rams over the next three weeks before probably sitting out in Week 17. Think he'll add to those totals?
MNF.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	26/40	263	3	2	168	159	9
6.	Chad Henne	MIA	29/51	335	2	1	139	139	0
A 55.8 completion percentage isn't anything to write home about, but Henne makes his way to the top ten because of volume and a ridiculous level of performance on third down, where he was 12-of-16 (with one defensive pass interference penalty included as a completion) for 198 yards with nine first downs and two touchdowns. Henne also nearly beaned a mascot with a throw through the end zone that might have required new concussion guidelines for mascots had it connected.
7.	Peyton Manning	IND	24/37	270	1	0	130	130	0
Most quarterbacks do their worst work on third down, when teams know that a pass is usually coming. It's particularly impressive, then, when a quarterback goes 10-of-12 on third down. Manning turned those completions into 129 yards, seven first downs, and his only touchdown pass of the day.
8.	Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	21/33	308	3	0	121	112	9
If you pegged Gradkowski as the leading fantasy scorer in the 1:00 games, you deserve to pat yourself on the back for an hour or two. We don't necessarily agree with our colleague Adam Schefter's opinion that the Raiders would be a playoff team if they'd started Gradkowski all season, but it's pretty clear that he's the superior option to JaMarcus Russell. His poor man's Jeff Garcia routine allows him to extend plays, which gives the athletic Raiders' wideouts more time to create space downfield, something they can't do with their route running or their work at the line of scrimmage. He doesn't have Russell's vaunted arm strength, but unlike Russell, he has an idea of where the ball's going.
9.	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	18/24	278	2	1	103	107	-4
Roethlisberger delivered the two prettiest passes we saw all week, on consecutive plays in the second quarter. The first was a deep post to Hines Ward that hit Ward, in stride, with a perfect spiral 26 yards downfield, and the second one was even better: A 34-yard corner route to Santonio Holmes that was lofted over a trailing defender and stuck inbetween the defender and a fast-approaching pylon.
10.	Alex Smith	SF	27/45	310	2	0	93	96	-3
It's funny to see the perception of Alex Smith [13] as a potential franchise quarterback change as his usage in the shotgun increases. Couldn't they have just stuck him in the shotgun two years ago? This week, though, Smith was actually pretty effective outside of the shotgun, going 7-of-13 for 126 yards with both his touchdowns; on the other hand, he came up short on a fourth-and-goal from the Seahawks 1-yard line from under center.
11.	Brady Quinn	CLE	25/45	271	3	0	84	78	6
Quinn started the day with six consecutive completions, and followed that with a 43-yard hookup with Brian Robiskie three attempts later, but he was erratic the rest of the way, and didn't have a single pass play longer than 18 yards the rest of the way. Getting sacked and losing the ball on the Chargers 7 wasn't helpful, even though the team was already down 20.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
12.	Tom Brady	NE	19/29	352	2	2	70	70	0
Brady was downright devastating on first down, to the tune of 9-of-11 for 211 yards, five first downs, and two touchdowns -- although he benefitted from some great work after the catch by Sam Aiken and Wes Welker. On the other hand, Brady did not convert a single one of the three third downs he faced in the second half.
13.	Vince Young	TEN	24/43	241	2	1	60	68	-8
He can't win every game for the Titans. Young played well altogether, with a potential long touchdown washed away by a Nate Washington drop. With the loss pretty much consigning the Titans to a season out of the playoffs, the team should spend the rest of the season giving Young plenty of game reps working on his mechanics and his accuracy, as he's still missing receivers on short-to-intermediate routes frequently enough to require remedial work.
14.	Brett Favre	MIN	30/45	275	2	2	53	53	0
Well, we knew Brett Favre [14]'s 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio was unsustainable because of history, but we weren't necessarily expecting him to throw two classic Favre picks only a week after we mentioned it. In his defense, Favre wasn't exactly placed in great situations by halfback Adrian Peterson. AD had eight first down carries, and five of them went for one yard or less.
15.	Donovan McNabb	PHI	14/25	238	1	0	51	44	7
The Eagles slowed down the pace of this game when they had the ball, and so McNabb didn't really throw very many passes. 9.5 yards per attempt is nothing to be ashamed of, but McNabb left a few completions on the field. No one's better at hitting a wide receiver on a crossing route on his trailing ankle than McNabb.
16.	Eli Manning	NYG	11/25	241	2	1	51	51	0
Take out the pass to Jacobs that was almost exclusively yards after the catch, and Manning completes 42 percent of his passes while averaging seven yards per attempt instead of 9.6. Over 24 passes, that's not helping things.
17.	David Garrard	JAC	15/28	238	2	0	43	40	3
Dunta Robinson did a good job on Mike Sims-Walker, holding him to one catch for 12 yards on eight targets, so Garrard spread the wealth and got the ball downfield. It's rare to see the two longest passes of the game from a quarterback go to two different tight ends, but Zach Miller had a 62-yard play, while Marcedes Lewis' lone catch went for 47 yards.
18.	Chris Redman	ATL	23/44	235	1	2	36	36	0
Redman's a perfectly acceptable backup quarterback, but the Eagles aren't a good fit for him, as a team with a great pass rush and a propensity for luring steadily-eyed quarterbacks into ill-advised throws. Redman threw two picks, and would have thrown two more if Will Witherspoon had better hands. He also pretty distinctly focused on his two stars -- 17 of his 23 completions went to Roddy White or Tony Gonzalez.
19.	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	25/34	198	2	0	16	12	4
Hasselbeck's line looks better than it actually played on the field. He had consecutive completion streaks of nine (second quarter) and 11 (third/fourth quarter), but he only registered eight first downs amongst those 21 completions, and picked up just a single first down on his other 18 dropbacks. He was also stripped of the ball on two of his four sacks, losing one of them.
20.	Brodie Croyle	KC	6/14	50	0	0	9	9	0
21.	Matt Schaub	HOU	19/27	207	1	1	8	4	4
It was good to see Schaub come back from his dislocated shoulder, but it's pretty clear that Schaub is more breakable than the elite quarterbacks his statistics lump him in with. As much as accuracy and arm strength, health is a skill, and great quarterbacks have it. Schaub ranked sixth in DVOA heading into this week, and the quarterbacks ahead of him have been remarkably healthy over their careers. Brett Favre [14] (first) and Peyton Manning [15] (fifth) have never missed an NFL game. Drew Brees [10] (second) hasn't missed a game since 2004, while Tom Brady [11] (third) and Philip Rivers [16] (fourth) have been the pictures of health outside of their one-off knee injuries. None of them have the pattern of consistent yearly injuries that Schaub's shown as the Houston starter. It's extremely difficult to be a Pro Bowl quarterback when you're sitting out a game or two each year, and it appears that Schaub might be extending that streak to a third consecutive season.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
22.	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	7/15	104	1	0	-4	-8	4
23.	Matt Moore	CAR	14/20	161	0	1	-8	-8	0
Although he was playing a very mediocre pass defense, the Panthers didn't trust Moore with very much down the field. He had attempts of 15, 42, and 48 yards in the air, but then everything else was within nine yards of the line of scrimmage.
MNF.	Joe Flacco	BAL	15/36	137	1	3	-8	-15	7
24.	Jay Cutler	CHI	8/17	143	1	0	-11	-11	0
The Bears could've taken Sunday and given Cutler's confidence a boost by letting him throw the ball around against a miserable Rams defense, but they chose to take the air out of the ball and have Cutler drop back 19 times. Much like Eli Manning [1], he combined a low completion percentage with a high yards per attempt, but Manning was doing it against a better pass defense.
25.	Kyle Orton	DEN	15/25	180	2	1	-46	-46	0
26.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	9/23	98	0	1	-48	-59	12
This is what happens when you put Fitzpatrick up against a very good pass defense. His 9-of-23 performance yielded a 39.1 completion percentage, which isn't actually his worst game as a pro; this week one year ago, Fitzpatrick was 12-of-31 for a 38.7 completion percentage in a game against the Ravens. What we've discovered is that when Fitzpatrick plays in Week 13 against a Rex Ryan defense, disaster happens.
27.	Rex Grossman	HOU	3/9	33	0	1	-55	-60	5
Rex Grossman [17] is so bad that it wouldn't be surprising to see him avoid listing his years in the NFL on his resume going forward, just out of fear that his future employers might call them as references. He'll pretend he was in a touring band or something, who knows.
28.	Carson Palmer	CIN	17/28	220	1	2	-58	-63	5
Palmer was supposed to smash the dire pass defenses of the Browns and Lions in consecutive games, but he followed a miserable Week 12 with a pretty disappointing Week 13. Two picks and a fumble aren't impressive when Will James is across from you. When he wasn't throwing to Chad Ochocinco, Palmer was 8-of-13 for 83 yards and two picks. What happens when he faces a team with an elite cornerback that can shut down Ochocinco? Not that they're making the playoffs, but the Jets would be an awful matchup for Palmer and his offense as presently constructed.
29.	Josh Freeman	TB	23/43	321	0	5	-71	-82	12
We've said more than once that the most harmful thing a player can do on the field is turn the ball over in or near the opposition end zone. Throwing an interception from your own end zone that's returned for a touchdown costs your team six points; throwing one in the opposition's end zone that's returned for a touchdown costs your team 12, combining the six your team was about to score with the six the opposition just picked up. The Buccaneers were by no means guaranteed a chance to score, but Freeman throwing three picks inside the Panthers' red zone (and a fourth from their 24) cost his team the game. Even if the team kicks four field goals instead of those four picks, they score 12 points and win. It's more complicated than that, but turning the ball over that close to the end zone is just awful for your team.
30.	Kyle Boller	STL	17/31	113	0	1	-113	-113	0
Boller's 3.5 yards per attempt rank among the 25 worst of the DVOA Era (1994-2009) for passers with a minimum of 30 attempts. The worst single-game YPA under the same criteria? Why, it's Kyle Boller [18]! He averaged a dismal 2.7 yards per attempt in 2004, in a game against the Patriots that saw Boller go 15-of-35 for 93 yards with an interception, a fumble, and four sacks against. That's terrifying. Teams over that timeframe with a starter throwing more than 30 passes and fewer than 3.6 yards per attempt were 3-19, and the three wins saw those teams combine to score 31 points. The most productive game came during Derek Anderson's bizarre 2007 campaign, with the now-deposed Cleveland quarterback throwing three touchdowns despite going 16-of-35 for 123 yards.
31.	Matt Stafford	DET	11/26	143	1	2	-122	-112	-10
You won't often see a quarterback throw a pick-six to a defender inside the hashmarks and six yards behind the line of scrimmage, but Stafford can be sublimely, bizarrely bad at times. Beyond that, his day consisted mostly of two bombs to Calvin Johnson, one of which was at the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter, already down 16 points. Take out the 92 yards Stafford gained on those two passes, and he was 9-of-24 for 51 yards. Yuck.
32.	Matt Cassel	KC	10/29	84	0	2	-141	-148	7
This isn't what the Chiefs had planned, by any means. It's nice to think that the Chiefs just wanted to give Brodie Croyle [19] some reps in a blowout, and Cassel was victimized by some poor work by his receivers, but his line -- 10-of-29 for 84 yards -- is just terrifying. With one more incomplete pass, he would've been fourth in the Lowest Yards Per Attempt stat we mentioned in the Kyle Boller [18] comment. It's hard to judge him when his best receivers are castoffs Chris Chambers and Bobby Wade, but right now, Cassel doesn't even look like a borderline NFL starter, let alone the franchise quarterback the Chiefs are paying him to be.

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Correll Buckhalter	DEN	113	0	15	0	48	47	1
Buckhalter went to Denver in the hopes that he'd become a starting back, but the team added Knowshon Moreno months later, leaving him in a similar role to the one he played under in Philly behind Brian Westbrook. Now, ironically, Buckhalter is playing the best football of his career, but if he were still in Philly, he'd probably be getting the bulk of the carries.
2.	Leonard Weaver	PHI	37	0	63	1	46	17	29
Instead, the focus back in Philly is becoming Weaver, who's a better blocker and receiver than LeSean McCoy while providing the team with a great change-of-pace on the interior. He's perceived as strictly a short-yardage back because of his size and position, but four of Weaver's five carries came on first down, and they resulted in an average of nearly nine yards a pop.
3.	Joseph Addai	IND	79	2	17	0	43	29	14
Addai's rushing total of 79 yards on 21 carries was unimpressive, but he had a success rate of just under 50 percent, and scored on rushes from the eight- and one-yard line without getting stuffed beforehand. Scoring on your first try instead of your third doesn't yield any extra points, but it's more valuable because getting stuffed on first and second down limits your opportunities to pick up the play on subsequent downs.
4.	Kevin Smith	DET	75	1	29	0	42	30	12
Five of Smith's 16 carries went for first downs, and he had a 55 percent success rate on his 11 first down carries.
5.	Chris Johnson	TEN	113	0	28	0	39	32	7
The streak of 125-yard games ended, but Johnson played much better in this game than he did in the game that preceded his streak, which was also against Indy. There, Johnson mustered only 43 yards on 11 touches; here, although he never broke the big play that's become his trademark, Johnson had a 62 percent success rate on the ground, and rushed for three yards or more on ten of his 13 carries.

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Marion Barber	DAL	36	0	7	0	-42	-4	-38
The Cowboys chose to pay Marion Barber [20] big bucks after three seasons as a part-time back behind Julius Jones. Up to that point in his career, Barber was averaging 4.54 yards per carry, with a touchdown once every 16.4 carries and a fumble once every 79.5 carries. Since then, he's been a totally different player. He's got 390 carries now over the past two seasons, a total that approaches the 477 carries he had over the first three years of his career. His average yards per carry are down to 3.98; he's scoring touchdowns once every 35.5 carries, and he's fumbling once every 43.3 attempts. If you extrapolate his numbers in each role to a 16-game season, he went from averaging 771 yards and 10 touchdowns as a part-time back to 956 yards and seven touchdowns as the featured back. Everyone loves his style of running, but Barber has been a disappointment for the Cowboys since he put pen to paper.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Devin Thomas	WAS	7	7	100	14.3	2	84
It's tempting to look at the days enjoyed by Thomas and fellow 2008 second-round pick Fred Davis and suggest that the combination is having a coming-out party, but let's see how they play over the rest of the year before crediting Vinny Cerrato with a great draft. In all fairness, Thomas and Davis were both developmental players who needed even longer than the average receiver needs to get acclimated to the NFL; then again, the team's third second-round pick that year, wideout Malcolm Kelly, was supposed to be NFL-ready straight out of school. And he's the worst of the three. As with many forward-looking moves made by front offices, the young combination might only mature by the time that the front office is out of town. Remember when Houston couldn't wait to fire Charlie Casserly for taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush?
2.	Percy Harvin	MIN	6	7	79	13.2	1	69
Harvin was the target on an slant that Favre tried to squeeze in unsuccessfully, but beyond that, the Vikings' slot receiver couldn't have done much more on offense. Five of his six completions went for a first down or a touchdown.
3.	Antonio Gates	SD	8	9	167	20.9	0	67
After a year off with various maladies, Gates has returned to the elite level of play he was at from 2004 through 2007. His total of 994 yards is already his second-best total as a pro, and he'll have four more games to get past his career high of 1101, set in 2005. The difference is that Gates is still only at four touchdowns this year despite having eight or more in each of the last five seasons. With plenty of options available near the goal line, though, the Chargers will be happy with the extra yards, even at the cost of fewer touchdowns.
4.	Robert Meachem	NO	8	10	142	17.8	1	64
Since we don't create DYAR for individual defensive players, no, this doesn't include points gained by Meachem for stripping Kareen Moore on a relatively useless, hopeless interception return at the end of the first half and returning it for a touchdown. If we just gave Meachem credit for a touchdown pass from the spot instead, he'd probably rank slightly ahead of Thomas, though. Anecdotally, no receiver contributed more to his team's victory this week than Meachem.
5.	Louis Murphy	OAK	4	6	128	32.0	2	59
Your leading fantasy receiver for the week, Murphy had been benched for Chaz Schilens and the continued misanthropy that is Darrius Heyward-Bey, but with DHB on the sidelines, Murphy got his chance to play and came up with two of the biggest plays of the Raiders' season. His two touchdown catches were obviously huge, but the most impressive play he made was a leaping sideline catch on what essentially amounted to a Hail Mary pass from Bruce Gradkowski [21]. Murphy remains the most promising rookie receiver the Raiders have.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Mike Sims-Walker	JAC	1	8	12	12.0	0	-36
Sims-Walker's one catch was for 12 yards on second-and-12, so it was a nice play. Otherwise, though, Dunta Robinson made a case for his next contract by shutting the Jaguars' top receiver down.

(Ed. Note: Quick Reads appears on ESPN Insider on Monday, then gets republished on FO on Tuesdays, with added ratings for Monday Night Football.