Week 15 Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

Jerome Harrison [1], take a bow. For one week, you managed to overshadow every other NFL player, even the future Hall of Fame quarterback that threw for 500 yards.

How can an anonymous halfback run for 286 yards and three touchdowns? The idea just doesn't apply to other single-game records in sports. No spot starter strikes out 18 guys in a game. Reserve shooting guards don't go off for 83 points.

The answer is that Jerome Harrison [1] simply shouldn't be an anonymous halfback. The fact that he was one until Sunday owes much more to the myopia that envelops football organizations than the weaknesses in his game.

A fifth-round pick out of Washington State in the 2006 NFL Draft, Harrison was selected by the Browns as a potential change-of-pace back to then-starter Reuben Droughns, who would be replaced in 2007 by the similar stylings of Jamal Lewis.

With Lewis came offensive linemen Joe Thomas [2] and Eric Steinbach [3], and while the former Ravens star accrued what baseball fans might call "counting numbers" by carrying the ball over and over again, it's hard to find a back that's done more with less than Harrison. His 57 carries over those two years yielded 388 rushing yards, nearly 6.8 yards per carry. While one big run can adulterate those numbers, a rushing DVOA of 40.4% in 2007 and 52.7% in 2008 shows that he was producing on a per-carry basis. Lewis ran the ball far more frequently, but Harrison was so effective on his 57 touches that he had 160 DYAR, more than half of Lewis' 284 DYAR over 630 touches. His fantastic numbers in limited time earned him the sixth spot on Football Outsiders' Top 25 Prospects list for both 2008 and 2009.

The easy knock on a player like Harrison is that he's too small (5-foot-9, 205 pounds) to carry the full-time workload for an NFL team, and that teams need a back like Lewis to carry the heavy load while Harrison serves as a change of pace. That logic doesn't hold up to the light of day; fellow 5-foot-9 backs include Warrick Dunn (180 pounds), Frank Gore (215), Priest Holmes (213), Steve Slaton (197), and yes, even Emmitt Smith (210). Instead of giving Harrison a chance to play his way out of a job, the Romeo Crennel-era Browns chose to hand the ball off to the plodding Lewis for his ability to "push the pile". Lewis was so successful at doing so that the Browns ranked 15th and then 27th in power situations (runs with two yards or less to go on third or fourth down and/or within two yards of the end zone), and he had all of two carries for 30 yards or more during his Browns career.

Even the arrival of new head coach Eric Mangini didn't offer Harrison a chance to pick up consistent playing time. With Lewis injured in September -- probably because he wasn't big enough to carry the load -- Harrison came in and ran for 173 yards on 43 carries against the Ravens and the Bengals, while chipping in with ten catches for 64 yards. Lewis returned a week later, consigning Harrison to the bench once more. He ran for 117 yards, but it took him 31 carries and came against one of the league's worst run defenses, the Bills. Cleveland scored six points.

When Lewis went on IR after Week 12, Harrison got another chance, this time against the Chargers. He only ran for 35 yards on 10 carries, but caught seven passes for 62 yards, scoring twice. A week later, he got a total of nine touches against the Steelers, while rookie Chris Jennings [4] got 20 carries. That led into Sunday, and Harrison's coming-out party.

The announcers gushed on Sunday about Harrison's rare combination of speed and size, how he still looked fresh in the fourth quarter after 30 carries. Some of that is context, of course; Harrison was playing the Chiefs. Then again, 15 other running backs start games against the Chiefs each year, and they don't run for 286 yards.

Harrison's the same back he always was, just given an opportunity to carry the ball more than ever before with the right matchup in front of him. Even if he doesn't end up being a full-time back at this level because of his pass blocking or because there's something about his size that doesn't affect those other starting-caliber halfbacks, it's pretty clear he deserved something better than one touch for every 11 that Jamal Lewis got over 2007-08. He deserved a bigger share of the pie and wasn't given any because of his size.

It's not strictly a running back thing, either -- both the league's top quarterback (Drew Brees) and most active wideout (Wes Welker) are far smaller than the prototypical player at their position. Bad organizations, like the Browns, find what's wrong with their players and use that as a reason to avoid giving them an opportunity. Good organizations look for a player's strengths and find a way to use them effectively. Based on what Harrison did against the Chiefs on Sunday, it's hard to make any argument against placing the Browns in the former category.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
1.	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	29/46	503	3	0	287	287	-1
Roethlisberger's brilliant day came against DVOA's previously second-ranked pass defense [6], Green Bay. The Packers helped by taking awful angles to receivers after the catch; they also failed to read and react quickly in zone coverage. While he becomes the tenth quarterback in NFL history to throw for 500 yards in one game, his 287 total DYAR is the 11th-best in the DVOA Era (1994-2009). It's the third-best performance of the 2009 season, trailing behind only Drew Brees [7]'s and Tom Brady [8]'s days in Week 6.
MNF.	Eli Manning	NYG	19/26	268	3	0	168	168	0
2.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	26/48	383	3	0	161	149	12
His opposite number wasn't half bad, either. Rodgers started the game 2-for-10, albeit with one of the completions going for an 83-yard touchdown. He got better, particularly on third down; after that beginning stretch of ugliness ended, Rodgers converted seven of the nine third downs he faced, including a third-and-16 and a third-and-14, while averaging 19 yards per completion.
3.	Tony Romo	DAL	22/34	312	1	0	149	142	7
Who leads the league in passing DYAR this December? You better believe it -- Romo's 498 narrowly holds the top spot over Philip Rivers [9]' 478. If the original idea of Romo somehow being cursed in December wasn't absurd enough, he put that notion to bed on Saturday night. Next time: Romo takes a team-approved vacation without filling umpteen column inches in the process.
4.	Peyton Manning	IND	23/30	308	4	1	140	140	0
Does he leap ahead of Drew Brees [7] in the MVP race because his team is still undefeated? Is a perfect season enough to overcome the AP's tendency to avoid repeat winners? And will he play in Week 17 -- or even Week 16 -- to secure that perfect season? If he was playing the Jacksonville pass rush every week, it would be an easy decision. Manning dropped back against the Jaguars 69 times this year, and was sacked exactly once.
5.	Philip Rivers	SD	24/37	308	3	2	123	129	-7
Rivers did his best work on second down. Of his ten completions for 15 yards or more, seven of them came on second down. They weren't short-yardage situations where the defense overcommitted against the run, either; Rivers picked up second-and-9 once, second-and-10 three times, and second-and-11 once.
6.	Matt Schaub	HOU	28/39	367	1	0	119	142	-24
Although Schaub converted a third-and-1, his fumble on a subsequent third-and-1 is responsible for the majority of his -24 rushing DYAR. If Schaub was a halfback, Gary Kubiak would've benched him.
7.	Donovan McNabb	PHI	21/35	306	1	2	119	106	12
Although Michael Vick has carved out a role as the Eagles' short-yardage quarterback, McNabb showed he can still get into the end zone with an eight-yard run for a score. He's also historically great on sneaks, which might come in handy if the Eagles are brave enough to go for it on fourth-and-short again anytime soon. Nearly half of McNabb's passes -- 17 of his 35 attempts -- were thrown to the right side of the field and within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. Historically, McNabb struggles most throwing over the middle, where he often has issues with crossing patterns and fitting balls inbetween the linebackers and safeties.
8.	Joe Flacco	BAL	21/29	234	4	0	115	122	-8
Flacco had a streak of eight consecutive completions on first down at one point in this game, yielding three first downs, two touchdowns, and 91 yards. Backup Troy Smith came in for mopup work in the fourth and picked up -39 DYAR, thanks mostly to an interception on his final pass.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
9.	Matt Moore	CAR	21/33	301	3	0	101	106	-5
Moore had issues with snaps and fumbled on a Jared Allen sack, or else his numbers would rank even higher. Give credit to the Panthers' offensive line, ravaged by injury, for keeping the pass rush mostly off of Moore and providing time for Steve Smith to get downfield. Moore threw only four passes to wide receivers not named Steve Smith. Moore's touchdown pass to Smith came on a third-and-26 play; in 2008, with third and between 24 and 28 to go, teams converted on exactly one of their 43 chances. This year, they're 3-of-42.
10.	Matt Ryan	ATL	16/34	152	1	0	97	97	0
Ryan's raw numbers aren't particularly impressive, but he gets a huge boost from playing the Jets and their league-best pass defense. Anecdotally, it was a good showing for a quarterback playing the day after a snowstorm with a turf toe injury, but that's not included in the numbers. The bigger question is why Ryan was playing in the first place; turf toe injuries are famously difficult to get rid of, and the Falcons were eliminated from playoff contention by the Cowboys' win on Saturday night. Even if the odds of Ryan exacerbating his injury are slim, the best thing for the organization, long-term, is to sit Ryan down and let him start resting his toe now.
11.	Matt Cassel	KC	23/39	331	2	0	88	84	4
Cassel's numbers would look even better if his receivers hadn't dropped a half-dozen passes. That's especially true of third down, where Cassel was 3-of-10 and only picked up two first downs. That very well may have ended up being the difference in the game.
12.	Josh Freeman	TB	16/26	205	2	1	74	81	-7
Freeman started off the game with a pick over the middle, but he converted for a first down or a touchdown on six of his 12 third down attempts. Both of his touchdowns were on throws to his running backs, the only two throws the backs got all day. It seems like it might make sense to give them a couple more chances.
13.	David Garrard	JAC	23/40	223	3	1	73	71	3
14.	Tom Brady	NE	11/23	115	1	1	65	74	-9
Nearly 36 percent of Brady's real yardage -- 64 yards -- came on two pass interference penalties. That's three extra fantasy points that Brady owners didn't get, and it might end up costing them their shot at fantasy gold. When the Bills weren't interfering with Brady's receivers, they did a good job of keeping the play in front of them and wrapping up on tackles. And while tight end Benjamin Watson caught two late touchdown passes in Week 1, after middle linebacker Paul Posluszny broke his forearm, Posluszny helped kept Watson out of the box score altogether this week.
15.	Vince Young	TEN	14/27	236	3	1	63	52	12
Young was 8-of-10 on third down, but his final three completions were all short of the sticks: A four-yard completion on third-and-5, a six-yard completion on third-and-9, and a seven-yard completion on third-and-7. That's not something Young does very often, though. On average, about 15.9 percent of third down plays end in a completion that's short of the first down marker; Young's at 13.2 percent, towards the bottom of the list. Among passers with 50 attempts on third down, the best at completing a meaningless pass is Trent Edwards, who completed a pass while still coming off the field a whopping 30.1 percent of the time. Alex Smith [10] and Shaun Hill are 2-3 at 27.3 percent and 23.5 percent, respectively, with Jason Campbell [11] and Ryan Fitzpatrick [12] behind them. The quarterback who'd rather not give in? Philip Rivers [9], who only completed a pass that was short of the sticks 7.6 percent of the time. Also under 10 percent are Kyle Boller and Derek Anderson (each 9.7 percent), while Ben Roethlisberger [13]'s at 10.1 percent.
16.	Carson Palmer	CIN	27/39	329	2	1	57	59	-2
Palmer's touchdown pass to Chad Ochocinco came with Antonio Cromartie in coverage. While Cromartie was viewed as a budding superstar after intercepting ten passes in 2007, he struggled through an injury-riddled 2008 and has been wildly inconstent in 2009. Four years into his career, it's difficult to tell what Cromartie is -- a ballhawk, an injury risk waiting to happen, a mediocre starting corner, a great athlete -- he's all those things at one time or another. It would be less of a problem if Antoine Cason was developing faster in the nickel, but Cason was expressly targeted on Palmer's second touchdown, a quick out to Laveranues Coles.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
17.	Kyle Orton	DEN	19/34	278	1	0	40	52	-12
Orton's biggest play, a 63-yard completion to Brandon Stokley, was a simple seam pattern that saw the Raiders' safeties just forget about covering Stokley altogether. The result was a wild goose chase to the endzone; fortunately, since the Raiders have such fast players, they were able to catch up after Stokley ran for 51 yards after the catch. Now it all makes sense!
18.	Drew Brees	NO	29/45	298	1	1	39	33	6
Brees did his best, but the Cowboys' pass rush just dominated left tackle Jermon Bushrod and right tackle Jon Stinchcomb. When Brees doesn't have time to throw, his receivers can't get downfield, he can't get to the spots in the pocket he wants to, and he's hurried into making a throw before he's ready. And that makes every quarterback worse. Brees converted one of the seven third downs he faced; he'd been picking up just under 48 percent of his third down opportunities this year.
19.	JaMarcus Russell	OAK	5/11	47	1	0	24	24	0
Maybe J.P. Losman motivated him with UFL stories. Russell also has a 32-yard pass interference penalty that's accounted for in his DYAR but not his raw numbers above.
20.	Brett Favre	MIN	17/27	224	0	1	17	17	0
The same people writing the stories about Tony Romo [14] not being able to win in December are moving onto the stories about Brett Favre [15] breaking down in December every year. What's happening here has nothing to do with Favre's arm or the cold weather; all quarterbacks get worse as the season goes along, not just old ones. The cause of the problem is the play of the Vikings' offensive line, which has given Favre less time to throw over the past few weeks. Favre's also thrown more interceptions, which was going to happen; his interception ratio was historically low, let alone low for him, and no one's ever had an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. This is Favre regressing to the mean, not a sign that he's suddenly ill-suited for his position.
21.	Brady Quinn	CLE	10/17	66	0	2	0	-14	14
The only reason Quinn made it to 0 passing DYAR is because five of his ten completions went for first downs. That's what happens when you have Jerome Harrison [1] running for eight yards a carry; Quinn faced seven third downs, and five of them were with six yards or less to go.
22.	Charlie Frye	OAK	10/17	68	0	1	-4	-16	12
23.	Chad Henne	MIA	29/46	349	1	3	-7	-8	2
Henne's biggest pass of the day, a 57-yard completion to Brian Hartline, was a perfect example of the difference between good processes and good outcomes. Henne threw a bomb into double coverage, which dropped right into the hands of Michael Griffin. Before Griffin could establish possession, though, Hartline knocked the pass out of Griffin's hands and into his own, turning a bad throw into Henne's biggest play of the game.
24.	Daunte Culpepper	DET	6/12	64	0	1	-12	-13	1
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
25.	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	17/25	178	1	1	-21	-21	0
At this point, the Bills are better off giving Brian Brohm the job. Fitzpatrick went 17-of-25, but only three of these completions were further than eight yards away from the line of scrimmage. He only threw one pass further than 17 yards downfield at all, and while the Patriots' defense got some pressure with a no-down linemen set, Fitzpatrick's inability to recognize the blitz and constant checkdowns forced the Bills into the football equivalent of smallball.
26.	Drew Stanton	DET	10/19	72	0	1	-38	-41	2
Stanton started off with an interception on his opening series, an ugly throw to Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but improved as the game went along. While he plunged in from the one-yard line (and attempted to imitate the Lambeau Leap while failing miserably), he only has two rushing DYAR because he scrambled on third-and-6 and third-and-7 and came up short both times.
27.	Kurt Warner	ARI	24/37	233	2	1	-53	-53	0
The fact that Warner only threw one pick is a small miracle; the Lions dropped at least three more intereptions, and could have lucked into a couple more. While Larry Fitzgerald was in the lineup, he very clearly wasn't at 100 percent; it's tempting to blame the problems of Warner on Fitzgerald, but there's no reason Warner should have had trouble throwing to Anquan Boldin or Steve Breaston. In his defense, both Breaston and Ben Patrick got hit with passes in stride before they realized they had been targeted with a pass.
28.	Keith Null	STL	18/27	173	1	1	-60	-60	0
At this rate of improvement, Null would be the best quarterback in football by Week 18. If only Roger Goodell had implemented his plans already...
29.	Alex Smith	SF	20/37	177	1	3	-70	-74	4
MNF.	Jason Campbell	WAS	16/28	192	1	2	-82	-97	15
30.	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	27/46	256	1	4	-87	-67	-20
OK, so one of the picks was a Hail Mary. Hasselbeck still threw three legit interceptions against the Buccaneers, one of the league's worst pass defenses. 16 of his completions came with the Seahawks down two scores or more late in the third quarter and throughout the fourth. While no one's pretending that Qwest Field is a fortress for the home team this year (well, outside of when the Sounders play), Seattle fans might want to make sure they get to the stadium for Week 17. It might very well be Hasselbeck's last home game as a member of the team.
31.	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	19/31	226	1	3	-94	-89	-5
After an up-and-down season that started with most of the high points and ended with most of the low ones, it's pretty clear that Mark Sanchez [16] wasn't the answer for this Jets team. He might have been a better choice than Kellen Clemens; we'll never know, since the Clemens that showed up against the Buccaneers had little confidence and a game plan designed to keep the ball in Thomas Jones's hands. He might be the right player for this team in the future, too. But the Jets are a veteran team, one that spent a lot of money two years ago to bring in a core of veterans designed to save Eric Mangini and Mike Tannenbaum's jobs and make a trip to the playoffs. They needed a Chris Redman or even -- yes -- a Brett Favre [15] this year, someone to hold the fort while Sanchez got a year of practice reps. Instead, they rested their entire season on the hopes that Sanchez would be ready to play at an NFL level. And he simply wasn't. One thing that amused us, though, was the sudden simultaneous realization by Jets fans and the media that Sanchez was from California and would have to play in the awful winds and miserable conditions that often make up the Meadowlands in December. Did no one realize Sanchez was from California in April? Or that it was going to get windy in Jersey?
32.	Jay Cutler	CHI	10/27	94	0	3	-188	-196	8
Even beyond the three picks, Cutler had three completions account for 65 yards. That means that he dropped back 26 other times and those plays resulted in seven completions for 29 yards. Just terrifyingly bad, this Bears offense.

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Jerome Harrison	CLE	286	3	12	0	104	108	-4
Harrison's 108 rushing DYAR are the fourth-most in a single game in the DVOA Era, ranking behind only Corey Dillon's 246-yard game against the Titans in 1997 that yielded 122 DYAR, Joseph Addai's four-score, 121 DYAR performance against the Eagles in 2006, and the 109 DYAR Fred Taylor gained against the Steelers in his 234-yard game during the 2000 season. It's the highest total of the season by a wide margin, beating out the 73 rushing DYAR Frank Gore gained when he ran for 207 yards against the Seahawks in Week 2. Running for 200 yards doesn't automatically mean that you're an elite running back, though. Willie Ellison set a then-NFL record by running for 247 yards in one game in 1971, but that was his only 1,000-yard season, and he needed every one of those yards to even get there. LeShon Johnson ran for 214 yards against the Saints in 1996, but only spread 741 rushing yards over his other 61 career games. Barry Word, Derrick Ward, Charlie Garner, and Frenchy Fuqua each had 200-yard games in their career. None were great, although they all had great days.
MNF.	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	61	2	29	0	68	53	15
2.	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	110	1	30	1	64	40	25
Jones-Drew caught a touchdown pass and picked up a first down on a second-and-11. He also converted three of the four first downs he faced, picking up six yards on third-and-7 on the other one.
3.	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	109	1	14	1	53	32	21
DeAngelo Williams spent two years in DeShaun Foster's shadow before finally getting a chance to serve as the lead back, at which point he had a mammoth season. Stewart's currently occupying the same role behind Williams, and when the Panthers let Williams move on for salary cap reasons, Stewart will probably have a breakout year of his own. The difference, of couse, is that Stewart's at least sitting behind an elite back. Williams was sitting behind DeShaun Foster. Stewart's great numbers come thanks to great blocking of the Williams Wall on the interior, and some badly missed tackles at the second level. The Vikings already miss E.J. Henderson.
4.	Jamaal Charles	KC	154	1	16	0	51	51	0
The Jamal Lewis problem, reduxe. Charles got more than 10 carries one time last year; it was 18 carries against Tampa Bay, and he ran for 106 yards. This year, he started getting handed the ball more than ten times a game in Week 10, after nominal starter/famous person Larry Johnson hated his way off the team. Charles is averaging 19 carries and 102 rushing yards per game since then, better than five yards a pop. Johnson was averaging 2.8 yards per carry before departing. Why was Johnson playing over Charles the first seven weeks? Because he made a lot of money. That's a good reason not to give a running back a lot of money.
5.	Michael Bush	OAK	133	1	11	0	43	41	3
Bush had been resting comfortably in Tom Cable's doghouse, but five runs of ten yards or more (including a 40-yard dash) and six first downs in 18 carries is a good way to work your way out. Bush only got his chance after Justin Fargas tweaked his knee early on; he might've pushed Fargas permanently to the bench. Then again, it is Oakland.

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Matt Forte	CHI	68	0	0	0	-42	-28	-14
It's hard to run very far when your offensive line doesn't block all that well, but Forte was stuffed on the Ravens 1-yard line and fumbled twice.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Andre Johnson	HOU	9	10	196	21.8	0	72
The only thing the Rams had that was capable of covering Andre Johnson [17] was the roof, and even then, we think Johnson could've caught a jump ball over it. You'll rarely see a player physically dominate opposing cornerbacks the way that Johnson was on Sunday. Sure, it happens all the time in high school, and even the Michael Crabtree's and Calvin Johnson's of the world pull that stuff off in college, but Johnson was like a men amongst boys against the Rams. And it wasn't even a set of boys who were good at football for their age.
2.	Chris Chambers	KC	5	5	114	22.8	1	63
Plenty of Chiefs' receivers dropped passes, but surprisingly, the much-maligned Chambers was not one of them. If this is the receiver he actually was -- three catches for 30 yards or more, and a nine-yard touchdown on a fade -- he'd be really valuable. Usually, though, this sort of production from him requires 13 incompletions or so to be mixed in, and by the time you've gotten him the ball that much, four weeks have passed.
3.	Vincent Jackson	SD	5	7	108	21.6	2	62
Was Jackson on a mission to prove Leon Hall isn't actually all that great? Maybe, but he did expose some communication issues in the Bengals' secondary. There were repeated times where Jackson made his way downfield and corners, including Hall, thought they had safety help when they didn't. That would be one thing if they were playing, say, Army or the 1994 Nebraska Cornhuskers, but it's the Chargers! They throw the ball deep a lot! It's not a secret! Cincinnati will need to work on that if they end up playing the Colts or the Chargers in the playoffs.
4.	DeSean Jackson	PHI	6	10	140	23.3	1	61
Jackson was the target on two picks, which doesn't affect his numbers beyond simply being recorded as an incompletion, but is still interesting. Jackson's now been the intended target on four picks, which is well behind the league leaders. Some of the guys you might expect are there -- Carolina's Steve Smith has been the target on nine picks, as has Braylon Edwards, while Calvin Johnson's at eight and Andre Johnson [17]'s at seven. Number one, though? Reggie Wayne. Peyton Manning [18]'s thrown 15 picks, and Wayne's been the target on ten of them. Wow.
5.	Randy Moss	NE	5	7	70	14.0	1	58
Factor in the 43-yard defensive pass interference penalty he drew, bringing the Patriots down to the Bills 3-yard line, and he's at 113 yards on six catches. If only we knew what the Panthers' defensive backs thought about all this!

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Deion Branch	SEA	4	10	28	7.0	0	-54
Branch was targeted on three interceptions, and while those are just scored for him as incompletions, not a single one of his other four catches went for first downs.

(Ed. Note: Quick Reads appears on ESPN Insider on Monday, then gets republished on FO on Tuesdays, with added ratings for Monday Night Football.)