Wild Card Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

Here are the playoff statistics for two quarterbacks. Look at them and let us know which of the two you'd want quarterbacking your favorite team.

	Comp	Att	Comp %	Yds	Yds/Att	TD	INT
Player A	395	637	62.0%	4108	6.45	28	15
Player B	290	436	66.5%	3747	8.59	31	13

It's not a particularly hard question. Player B completes passes at a ridiculous rate, and throws for better than two yards per attempt more than Player A. About the only thing Player B has going for him is a slightly better interception rate. Over the course of a full season with 550 attempts each, Player B would throw about three more interceptions than Player A, but he'd complete 25 more passes and throw for just under 1200 more passing yards than Player A.

If we polled 100 fans as to whether they'd rather have Player A or Player B, the only ones choosing Player A would be the ones that thought it was a trick question. In a way, it is; if we told those same 100 fans to pick a playoff quarterback without giving them any statistics and let them choose between Tom Brady [1] (Player A) and Kurt Warner [2] (Player B), Warner would only have the trick question people on his side.

Of course, there's something inflated to Warner's numbers -- he's played almost his entire playoff career in one dome or another, and that does help a lot. Then again, playing in the cold of the Northeast also hurts Brady's opposition, and he's enjoyed a better defense than Warner has: Over their playoff careers, Warner's defense has allowed 23.8 points per game, while Brady's defense has allowed only 19.0. And it's not Brady who raises his game in the playoffs, since his quarterback rating falls from a regular season mark of 93.3 to 85.5; it's Warner, who goes from a regular season quarterback rating of 93.7 to a playoff figure of 104.6.

So then, what's the case for picking Brady? Some would say his playoff record; Brady's 14-4 (.778 winning percentage), while Warner's is 9-3 (.750); that's less than a difference of one win every two seasons. Furthermore, Sunday proved what an absurd proposition basing quarterback value on playoff wins and losses are. Did Joe Flacco [3] really play better than Aaron Rodgers [4]? Had Rodgers hit a wide-open Greg Jennings [5] on the first play from scrimmage in overtime, the Packers would have advanced without Warner getting a chance to respond, and Warner would've had a loss hung on his record. Did Flacco play better than Warner? Absolutely not.

In reality, Brady's reputation as a "clutch" quarterback rests upon his two game-winning Super Bowl drives (both of which, by the way, came under a roof). There's mitigating factors to each; the Rams played for overtime with an absurd prevent defense that gave Brady -- at that point a quarterback with a highly erratic deep ball and an offense built around throwing for short, low-risk completions underneath -- the opportunity to pick up first downs on passes to halfback J.R. Redmond. His second game-winning drive, against the Panthers, came immediately after Panthers kicker John Kasay [6] dumped a kickoff out of bounds, giving the Patriots the ball at the 40-yard line. Brady's drive wasn't exactly "The Drive"; it went for 36 yards before Adam Vinatieri [7] kicked a game-winning field goal.

Brady still deserves credit for his two game-winning drives, of course, but what about Warner? In Super Bowl XXXIV, his final drive was one play: A 73-yard touchdown pass to Isaac Bruce, breaking a tie score and giving the Rams a 23-16 lead. It's forgotten now, of course, because of Steve McNair [9]'s amazing drive that followed and the game's spectacular ending. Against the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVI, Warner's final drive went 51 yards in 20 seconds, ending with a game-tying 28-yard touchdown pass to Ricky Proehl [10]. Brady followed that with his heroics. Finally, in Super Bowl XLIII, with 2:58 left in the game, he completed a 13-point comeback and gave the Cardinals a 23-20 lead by throwing a 64-yard touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald [11]. He stood helpless on the sidelines as Ben Roethlisberger drove down the field for a game-winning touchdown, and couldn't do the impossible in picking up the 89 yards needed to win the game with only 35 seconds left.

Warner's biggest crime in Super Bowls, it turns out, has been giving the other team too much time to score after his clutch play. He almost lost on Sunday because his kicker couldn't hit the chip shot Warner had set him up with.

Don't get us wrong: Tom Brady [1] is a great quarterback. He was number one in our DYAR rankings [12] this year, putting up fantastic numbers masked by one of the toughest pass defense schedules a quarterback has faced in years (perhaps the toughest). He's a great quarterback in the playoffs, too.

But Kurt Warner [2]'s been the better playoff quarterback over the course of their careers, and it's hard to see how there's a debate that doesn't involve mythology and the media.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
1.	Kurt Warner	ARI	29/33	382	5	0	385	385	0
Oh, one other thing about Warner: He now holds the record for the best game in DYAR history. His 385 DYAR beat out the 347 DYAR Trent Green put up in Week 4 of the 2002 season against the Dolphins. Green had 20 rushing DYAR in that game, so Warner had 58 passing DYAR more than the previous record-holder. He had more touchdown passes than incompletions, something only Carson Palmer [13] and Brady (twice) did this season; it's the 16th time that's been done since 1994, and Warner's responsible for three of them. Warner took the league's sixth-rated pass defense (according to DVOA [14]) and made them look like the Lions, with blown assignments and gaping holes in zones all game.
2.	Tony Romo	DAL	23/35	244	2	0	199	198	1
It's funny how you can gain or lose a reputation while you're standing on the sidelines. Romo's been the same quarterback he's always been over the past five weeks, same mix of strengths and weaknesses, but it's his defense that's raised their game. From December 1 on, the 2006-2008 Cowboys allowed 25.1 points per game. This year? That's down to 13.7 points per game. The offense has also gotten better, going from 18.4 December/January points per game in 06-08 to 23.3 points per game this year, but the effect isn't nearly as pronounced. And if 244 yards seem kinda puny for second place, remember that Romo also had 52 yards taken away from him by defensive pass interference.
3.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	28/42	441	4	1	193	178	15
As good as Rodgers was at times on Sunday, it's hard to forget those two passes to a streaking, open Greg Jennings [5] that he missed. The first one would only have made the score 14-7; it was the second one, the one that would've ended overtime after one play from scrimmage, that will be stuck in Rodgers' head all offseason. The turnovers were huge, but he played about as well as a quarterback could considering them; 14 third/fourth downs yielded six first downs and three scores, and he was 18-of-24 for 269 yards with two touchdowns and nine first downs on first down.
4.	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	12/15	182	1	0	141	141	0
Sure, the Jets kept things simple and allowed Sanchez to stay in comfortable situations, mainly short drops and play-action bootlegs. They've been doing that all year, though, and Sanchez has rarely executed like this. The big plays went to Dustin Keller [15], but Jerricho Cotchery did a great job extending drives on third down, and Sanchez didn't take a single sack or turn the ball over.
5.	Carson Palmer	CIN	18/36	146	1	1	34	32	1
Something is very clearly physically wrong with Carson Palmer [13]. Palmer normally has smooth, classic quarterback mechanics, and gets excellent velocity on his passes. On Saturday, he looked like Philip Rivers. Rivers has anything but classic mechanics, with a high, looping ball that makes coaches cringe. Of course, it works well for Rivers; that's not the way Palmer normally throws the ball, and it showed. His biggest play was a 26-yard throw to Chad Ochocinco that resulted in a highly questionable pass interference call on Darrelle Revis; he otherwise did not complete a single pass more than 13 yards downfield, and had only six completions of ten yards or more. Maybe it's just his thumb; Bengals fans should hope so, because from watching him throw the ball against the Jets these past two weeks, it looks like a lot more.
6.	Donovan McNabb	PHI	20/37	230	1	1	-10	-9	0
By our count, McNabb left 100 yards and a touchdown on the field with off-target throws. He missed over the middle to Reggie Brown, deep to DeSean Jackson, and had a handful of other throws that could've been receptions or bigger plays with better throws. He ended up converting only two of the 11 third or fourth downs he faced. One possible culprit: The head injury suffered by Brent Celek in the first quarter. Celek came back, but he didn't catch a single pass until the third quarter and by then, the game was out of hand.
7.	Joe Flacco	BAL	4/10	34	0	1	-48	-51	3
He looked worse than his numbers, but there's only so much damage you can do in ten passes. The four completions did yield three first downs, too. He should be much better next week, since Flacco's biggest issue is handling blitzers from unexpected locations, which makes the Colts -- who don't frequently blitz -- a good matchup for him.
8.	Tom Brady	NE	23/42	154	2	3	-147	-147	0
This was the second-worst game of Brady's career; he had -181 DYAR in Week 1 of the 2003 season, the Lawyer Milloy game. He led only one drive of note all game, turned the ball over four times, and converted only three of the 12 third/fourth downs he faced. Because of the rush, coverage, and a potential injury to Randy Moss, Brady only threw 11 passes more than 10 yards or more downfield. On those plays, he had almost as many completions (three) as interceptions (two).

Five most valuable running backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Cedric Benson	CIN	169	1	12	0	67	62	5
Benson was just a wrecking ball all day; he had a success rate of 57 percent, with nary a single carry going for negative yardage. His last rush of the game was his 47-yard touchdown run with 11:13 left, which seems strange, since he was averaging eight yards a carry on the ground, while Carson Palmer [13] was at just four yards per pass.
2.	Ray Rice	BAL	159	2	0	0	60	63	-3
The Patriots were determined to take away Rice in the passing game, bringing out their old Marshall Faulk/Brian Westbrook playbook and doubling him on most plays. That didn't help in the running game, though, where Rice was fantastic even after his 83-yard touchdown run to start the game. He converted three of the six third downs he faced, and had a 50 percent success rate on first down, even without including the touchdown run. He also owes Brandon Meriweather a crabcake; it's hard to do less on a touchdown run than what Meriweather did with Rice barreling towards him.
3.	Felix Jones	DAL	148	1	30	0	56	45	11
The natural counter to the A-gap blitz that's become vogue around the league is a run away from the blitz, to the outside. The textbook example is Jones's 73-yard touchdown in the third quarter on Saturday. While Jeremiah Trotter sprinted up the A-gap (the space between the center and either guard) on an impeccably-timed blitz, all he could do is admire Jones as he ran down the right side of the field. Had Trotter not blitzed, of course, he would have had a play at Jones for a gain of three or four.
4.	Shonn Greene	NYJ	135	1	0	0	37	37	0
It was surprising to see the Jets use Greene as their featured back and not Thomas Jones [16], but it's hard to argue with the results. Greene had a 52 percent success rate, including a stretch of seven successful carries in a row to start the second half.
5.	Ryan Grant	GB	65	0	18	0	35	24	10
Grant was mostly an afterthought in the fireworks display that was the Packers' passing attack, but he picked up five first downs on 11 carries and had two nine-yard gains on second-and-10 as a receiver.

Least valuable running back
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Thomas Jones	NYJ	34	1	0	0	-21	-21	0
Jones had the nine-yard touchdown run in the third quarter to cap off a Greene-inspired drive, and also had an eight-yard run in the second quarter. His other 13 carries were considered to be unsuccessful, and they combined for a total of 17 yards.

Five most valuable wide receivers and tight ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Steve Breaston	ARI	7	9	125	17.9	1	86
Breaston doesn't catch the short stuff. His shortest completion of the day was 11 yards, and while that pass didn't go for a first down, the other six all went for either a first down or a touchdown. His touchdown pass was a thing of beauty; after driving the Packers crazy with a multitude of crossing and combination routes all day, Breaston went on a crossing route, only to head straight for the endzone two steps in. The Packers left him wide open.
2.	Early Doucet	ARI	6	6	77	12.8	2	66
Meet the new Anquan Boldin. Doucet isn't as talented as Boldin is, nor is he as good of a blocker, but he'll play for a lot less over the next three seasons, and he's got great hands. Much like Breaston, only one of Doucet's completions didn't go for a first down.
3.	Jermichael Finley	GB	6	9	169	28.2	0	56
Finley's quickly become the Packers' biggest matchup problem. How do you cover him? The Cardinals tried with linebackers, and Finley ate their lunch. If you assign him to a safety, Finley can outmuscle them and break their tackles, and that takes a safety away from the running game or -- worse -- away from Greg Jennings [5]' deeper routes. The Packers exploited that when they went to four-wide sets and the Cardinals were forced to put a safety in coverage against Finley; it opened up single coverage for Jennings, in the slot, against the overmatched Ralph Brown. Rodgers missed Jennings when he had the chance, but all the parts are coming back next year, and Rodgers doesn't miss very often.
4.	Dustin Keller	NYJ	3	4	99	33.0	1	52
71 yards after the catch is a great day for a wide receiver on three catches, let alone a tight end. Keller's faster than most tight ends, but he was great at selling the run on play action before sneaking out downfield and picking up huge gains. Chinedum Ndukwe should've held Keller to about a ten yard gain on Keller's 43-yard completion in the fourth quarter, but Ndukwe took an awful angle and couldn't recover; normally, receivers have to juke a defender to make them miss, but Keller just turned 45 degrees or so and Ndukwe was useless.
5.	Miles Austin	DAL	7	10	82	11.7	1	50
Austin gets up to 122 yards with a 40-yard pass interference penalty that gave the Cowboys the ball at the Eagles 1.

Least valuable wide receiver or tight end
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Sam Aiken	NE	1	6	5	5.0	0	-33
Targeted on two different interceptions, Aiken added injury to insult with a fourth-quarter concussion thanks to a Frank Walker hit. Truthfully, he shouldn't be out there as a receiver; Aiken's a great special teams player, but he's stretched as anything but an emergency wideout. It seems strange to say, but with Randy Moss potentially leaving and Wes Welker on the shelf, wide receiver is suddenly a very big weakness for the Patriots moving forward.

(Ed. Note: This article originally appeared Monday on ESPN Insider.)