Super Bowl XLIV Quick Reads

by Bill Barnwell

Congratulations to the New Orleans Saints organization and the great fans of New Orleans for winning Super Bowl XLIV. May the feeling you had watching Tracy Porter [1] run the victory into the end zone remain on instant recall for generations, and may those fans who haven't yet experienced the bliss of a Super Bowl victory get to experience the same exhilaration one day.

And how did it happen? Well, the instant narrative that has spilled out of Super Bowl XLIV is that "Payton beat Peyton": Sean Payton made amazingly brave decisions, and Peyton Manning [2] couldn't come up big when he needed to. The "Manning choked" talk is just as silly on its face as it was five years ago and deserves little respect, so we're going to focus on a much more quantifiable part of the game: Payton's decisions.

In a game that often paralyzes coaches with its importance, Sean Payton made two extremely bold, unconventional moves. To steal our favorite phrase from Herm Edwards, Payton coached to win the game. An evaluation of those decisions -- even without considering the outcome of the game, which is mostly independent of his two biggest strategic choices -- proves them to be correct.

His first bold move was to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the Colts 1, with 1:49 to go. You can take issue with the specifics of the playcall and whether the Saints might have been better off running behind guard Jahri Evans [3] or putting the ball in Drew Brees [4]'s hands, but the logic behind the decision is sound. Teams succeeded in 2009 when running the ball from the one-yard line 54.3 percent of the time. (In small sample size theatre, New Orleans was 7-of-11 running from the one this year, but Indy allowed only three touchdowns on 11 attempts from the one.)

Using the 54.3 percent conversion rate, the Saints would expect to score 3.80 points by going for it, and somewhere in the range of 2.96 points by kicking a field goal. The break-even point -- the point at which kicking a field goal becomes the superior decision -- is if the Saints would only expect to convert 42.8 percent of the time. Payton is very clearly in the right.

Even that's a conservative analysis, though. We know that, historically, teams that start with the ball on their own one-yard line score -0.68 points on their next possession; the possibility of a safety or a turnover, combined with the difficulty of travelling 99 yards for a touchdown, actually produces a negative expectation for points. The Colts are no average offense (which they showed on a 96-yard drive for a touchdown earlier in the quarter) and their expectation is higher, but it's close to zero points. A Saints stop could also produce good field position for them with a chance to score again, which is exactly what ended up happening; a field goal leaves 1:45 on the clock for Manning with timeouts and better field position than his own 1-yard line. Considering all these factors, going for it is not only the right move, it's the obvious one, even allowing for the possibility of Thomas getting stuffed.

Starting off the second half with an onside kick was an even bolder move, but it was again mathematically correct. Football Outsiders has found [6] that the recovery rates for unexpected onside kicks has been, historically, 70.5 percent. That jibes with Payton himself, who estimated it to be better than a 60 or 70 percent chance [7] during the week. That historical rate is again conservative, since it doesn't account for the nature of the Super Bowl; all surprises aren't created equal, and nobody in their right mind was expecting an onside kick, especially after Payton's big decision had just come up short.

If we just assume that 70.5 percent figure is the true probability that the onside kick would be recovered in this situation, we can figure out the expected points gained or lost by the move. We'll use the actual recovery point of the Saints 42-yard line as the expected location of the ball after the kick attempt. The average team starting with the ball on their own 42 will score 1.06 points, so multiplying that by the 70.5 percent chance of recovery means that the Saints would be expected to score .75 points. On the flip side, if given the ball on the opposition's 42-yard line, the average team would be expected to score exactly 2.00 points, so since the Colts would be expected to recover the onside kick 29.5 percent of the time, the negative expectation for the Saints is .59 points. Since .75 is more than .59, although it's a minor net gain, it's the correct decision for Payton to make given the circumstances.

The decision also looks better when we consider that the Saints and Colts aren't average offenses; they're great ones. The Saints scored 44.1 percent more points per drive than the average team in 2009, while the Colts scored 36.8 percent more than league-average. If we adjust the figures accordingly, the Saints actually expect to score 1.08 points with a successful onside kick while allowing only .795 in the process, upping the difference to .29 points.

We can keep going and adjust those figures for quality of defense, but you get the idea. The point is simple: Each time Payton made his decision, despite the fact that coaches tend to be risk-averse and that one of his decisions didn't pan out, he was making the mathematically correct choice.

Of course, if the Saints had ended up losing, we'd be dealing with a different set of what-if's than the ones running through the heads of Colts fans this morning. Instead of thinking about Dwight Freeney [8]'s ankle or Pierre Garcon [9]'s drop, Saints fans would be wondering what would have happened if Marques Colston [10] hadn't dropped an easy first down in the first quarter, or if Jabari Greer [11] hadn't gone out for a play and left Pierre Garcon [9] alone with Usama Young [12] for one fateful touchdown. Or what would have happened if Tracy Porter [1] hadn't dropped that interception with a clear path to the end zone with three minutes left. Instead of patting Payton on the back for his boldness, he'd be crucified for failing in fourth-and-short and the ludicrous decision to try an onside kick to start the second half.

Sean Payton wasn't wrong when the Colts stuffed Pierre Thomas [13], and he wasn't right until the final horn sounded and he was being carried onto the field by his players. He was right the moment he kept his offense on the field, and he was right the moment he told Morstead to execute the onside kick. Here's to hoping that more coaches show his level of bravery when teams try and figure out the Saints' formula for success moving forward.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR
1.	Drew Brees	NO	32/38	288	2	0	189	189	0
Brees had an uneven start to the game; Dwight Freeney [8] was giving Jermon Bushrod trouble, and while Marques Colston [10] was getting open against the Colts linebackers and finding spots to attack their zone coverage, there was simply nothing deep for Brees to attack. Once Freeney slowed down, though, Brees went into the zone and remained there for the rest of the game. After he came onto the field with 8:14 left in the second quarter, Brees went 25-of-27 for 225 yards, with 11 first downs and two touchdowns. The first pass of that sequence was a 27-yard incompletion to Jeremy Shockey [14]; Brees's only other incompletion for the rest of the game was a drop by Reggie Bush [15]. A quarterback wins Super Bowl MVP most years, and he doesn't always deserve it (example: Eli Manning). This year, Drew Brees [4] absolutely was the best player on the field.
2.	Peyton Manning	IND	31/45	333	1	1	139	139	0
Manning is given heaping amounts of DYAR blame for throwing an interception in a key situation, but he doesn't get any added penalty for Tracy Porter [1]'s ensuing return for a touchdown; return length has been proven to be generally random for all parties with a few exceptions (Ed Reed, DeAngelo Hall), so we add a penalty for the league-average return length from the yard line of the interception into what DYAR docks Manning. As we mentioned in the introduction, Manning's touchdown pass was a product of the situation; Greer, the Saints' star cornerback and unquestionably the league's most underrated player, went to the sidelines with what appeared to be an injury after Joseph Addai [16]'s 26-yard run; immediately afterwards, Manning targeted backup corner Usama Young [12] and Pierre Garcon [9] beat him off the line for an easy touchdown. Outside of that, Manning really didn't have much success throwing to the sidelines; Porter got help over the top from Darren Sharper on Reggie Wayne [17], while Greer ably handled Garcon one-on-one. His success was almost exclusively throwing into the slot, where Dallas Clark [18] and Austin Collie [19] faced inferior players and single coverage.

Running Backs
Rk	Player	Team	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR
1.	Joseph Addai	IND	77	1	58	0	34	17	17
77 rushing yards on 13 carries looks like a great day, but it came against the league's 29th-ranked run defense [20], so it charts out to be a decent day as opposed to an excellent one. He also accrued about half of his receiving totals -- three catches and 33 yards -- when the Colts were down 14 in the fourth, so it was mostly checkdowns against a prevent defense. A question to ask Manning and Tom Moore: After Addai ran for 58 yards in the first quarter, why did he only get two carries in the second quarter and three in the third?
2.	Pierre Thomas	NO	30	0	55	1	26	-1	27
His nine rushes only yielded two first downs and included that fourth-and-goal stuff, so it was a negative day on the ground. On the other hand, he was great after the catch all game long, highlighted by a touchdown that saw him pick up 20 YAC en route to the end zone. He got some help from the Colts' defense, though: Indy might miss more tackles than any team in football.
3.	Reggie Bush	NO	25	0	38	0	9	3	7
Three first downs on nine touches isn't bad, but throw that in a mix with four yards over two punt returns and there's just not that much here. At this point, it's pretty clear what Reggie Bush [15] is: 20 percent of the time, he's the guy that blew up against the Cardinals; 20 percent of the time, he's injured; and the other 60 percent of the time, he's a really destitute man's Leon Washington. With an uncapped year looming and Bush due $8 million in salary, he's a prime candidate to be released.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR
1.	Pierre Garcon	IND	5	7	66	13.2	1	30
Outside of the touchdown pass with Jabari Greer [11] on the bench, Garcon didn't actually do very much; his other successes came when the Saints were in zone coverage and Garcon got across the field and away from Greer. He was able to beat Greer once, but dropped what would have been a pass for a very nice gain. One of the weaknesses of stats is that they don't adjust for injuries; if our advanced metrics knew Greer was off the field on the touchdown pass, Garcon wouldn't be this high. And if you're wondering why Greer was on Garcon and not Reggie Wayne [17], well, Greer is the left cornerback, and Wayne plays almost exclusively on the opposite side of the field. The Saints chose to double Wayne and keep Greer where he was comfortable, and it worked.
2.	Marques Colston	NO	7	9	83	11.9	0	25
Never a particularly fast receiver, Colston succeeded this year by using his size, guile, and just enough speed to get past linebackers and safeties in zone coverage. That's exactly what he did for most of the first half on Sunday, giving Drew Brees [4] a safety valve in the middle of the field for 8-10 yards on most plays. When the Colts adjusted at halftime, they took Colston away -- he only had two targets in the second half, both catches -- but opened up opportunities for the rest of the offense.
3.	Dallas Clark	IND	7	9	86	12.3	0	24
Thinking that one or even two of Scott Fujita, Scott Shanle, Randall Gay, Darren Sharper, or Roman Harper couldn't cover him, Clark was our pre-game choice for Super Bowl MVP. It started out looking pretty wise; Clark had two catches for 25 yards on the opening drive, with a third pass desperately tipped away. Then the Saints adjusted, and Clark didn't catch another pass until the third quarter. He contributed five first downs on his nine catches, but he only really got downfield on two plays, which were responsible for 45 of his 86 yards.
4.	Devery Henderson	NO	7	7	63	9.0	0	17
If you want to criticize Sean Payton for something, go after the decision to send Henderson on an ill-advised reverse for a loss of seven yards. While there's the subtle benefits of forcing the Colts to honor their backside responsibilities when running the ball to the outside on subsequent plays, a reverse against the speedy Colts' defense is just asking for a drive to end. It's too bad, too, because Henderson was great as a receiver, catching everything Drew Brees [4] threw at him and nabbing four first downs in the process.
5.	Lance Moore	NO	2	2	21	10.5	0	5
When Brees couldn't find anything deep or on the outside early, there was one exception: A deep out to Moore for 21 yards on third-and-2 that kept a second-quarter drive going. Moore was later thrown a quick hitch for no gain on first-and-goal, as part of the series of downs ending with Thomas getting stuffed on the goal line, but he made up for it by doing a great job of getting off the line and making himself available to a scrambling Brees for the two-point conversion that gave the Saints a seven-point lead.
6.	Jeremy Shockey	NO	3	4	13	4.3	1	2
Shockey was more useful as a blocker than he was as a receiver, with little to show besides the two-yard touchdown pass that ended up being the game-winner for New Orleans. Now that he's won a Super Bowl, we can safely lay the whole movement tying the Giants' success two years ago to the injury-enforced absence of Shockey in the playoffs to rest. Oh, and now that the work's over, he can party in Miami all he wants.
7.	Austin Collie	IND	6	9	66	11.0	0	-7
Collie was another player we expected to have an impact in the slot, but he didn't do much until catching a gorgeous lob from Manning for 40 yards as part of the penultimate Colts drive. It was clear that the Colts wanted to get Collie the ball in space and hope that he'd bounce off a few tackles from undersized Saints, but Collie could only muster 12 YAC across his six catches, and nine came on that lob.
8.	Robert Meachem	NO	2	3	6	3.0	0	-12
An absolute non-factor, Meachem finished the playoffs with only three catches for 25 yards. Fortunately, they don't give out half-championship rings.
9.	Reggie Wayne	IND	5	11	46	9.2	0	-22
If you really feel the urge to pin the blame on exactly one Colts player for the loss, go ahead and put it on Wayne. He was playing a good pass defense, but he was facing the average Tracy Porter [1], not Greer, the team's elite corner. Sure, he faced double coverage a fair amount of the time, but he's supposed to be one of the league's best wide receivers; those guys are supposed to beat double coverage.

(Ed. Note: This article originally appeared Monday on ESPN Insider.)