Week 5 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Remember that the DVOA commentary now resides on FOXSports.com. You'll find it here [1].

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Here are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through Week 4 of 2005, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a teamâ€™s performance to the league averaged based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here [2].)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. Opponent adjustments are currently set at 40% and will increase each week until they are full strength after Week 10. SPECIAL DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver/Mexico City) and week of season. NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. Because of the Jewish holiday, these numbers do not include the Monday Green Bay-Carolina game.

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	SPECIAL DVOA	S.T. RANK
1	CIN	63.9%	1	89.2%	4-0	22.4%	7	-37.7%	2	3.7%	8
2	NYG	51.2%	5	60.4%	3-1	35.2%	4	3.5%	18	19.4%	1
3	PIT	48.3%	2	70.9%	2-1	43.3%	2	-7.2%	9	-2.2%	22
4	SD	36.2%	11	28.5%	2-2	43.7%	1	9.0%	23	1.5%	13
5	PHI	35.1%	4	32.8%	3-1	28.1%	5	-19.7%	5	-12.7%	32
6	IND	28.1%	6	32.6%	4-0	26.3%	6	-3.9%	12	-2.1%	21
7	MIA	26.9%	8	24.5%	2-1	2.2%	15	-21.3%	4	3.4%	10
8	ATL	26.2%	17	35.6%	3-1	18.4%	9	-8.1%	8	-0.3%	17
9	SEA	25.3%	9	21.4%	2-2	37.4%	3	8.1%	22	-4.0%	26
10	TB	22.6%	3	42.3%	4-0	-10.8%	21	-33.3%	3	0.1%	16
11	CHI	21.2%	7	19.8%	1-2	-26.8%	27	-42.7%	1	5.2%	6
12	DEN	14.7%	19	19.2%	3-1	3.1%	14	-13.8%	6	-2.2%	23
13	JAC	8.8%	10	9.4%	2-2	-12.1%	23	-12.0%	7	8.9%	3
14	KC	6.0%	13	-5.7%	2-2	13.7%	10	12.6%	25	4.9%	7
15	OAK	2.1%	21	3.6%	1-3	18.5%	8	13.4%	26	-3.0%	24
16	DAL	1.0%	12	10.1%	2-2	5.3%	12	3.6%	19	-0.7%	18
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	LAST WEEK	NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA	W-L	OFFENSE DVOA	OFF. RANK	DEFENSE DVOA	DEF. RANK	SPECIAL DVOA	S.T. RANK
17	CLE	-3.1%	20	-14.1%	1-2	9.5%	11	16.1%	27	3.5%	9
18	CAR	-3.4%	18	0.5%	1-2	-11.8%	22	-6.2%	10	2.2%	11
19	NE	-5.9%	14	-19.7%	2-2	3.7%	13	10.2%	24	0.5%	15
20	BUF	-11.7%	15	-6.5%	1-3	-21.9%	25	1.4%	15	11.6%	2
21	WAS	-12.0%	22	-22.1%	3-0	-1.6%	16	3.1%	16	-7.3%	29
22	ARI	-12.9%	29	-8.7%	1-3	-10.1%	20	1.1%	14	-1.7%	20
23	NO	-18.6%	26	-20.8%	2-2	-2.3%	17	6.6%	20	-9.8%	31
24	STL	-27.6%	16	-16.8%	2-2	-4.8%	18	19.5%	29	-3.3%	25
25	TEN	-27.6%	23	-25.8%	1-3	-8.7%	19	24.3%	30	5.3%	5
26	DET	-31.7%	30	-34.1%	1-2	-29.3%	29	-5.4%	11	-7.8%	30
27	MIN	-32.7%	27	-57.7%	1-3	-27.3%	28	7.0%	21	1.6%	12
28	NYJ	-34.3%	24	-17.1%	1-3	-34.3%	30	-1.7%	13	-1.7%	19
29	GB	-40.2%	25	-40.7%	0-3	-17.7%	24	18.4%	28	-4.1%	27
30	BAL	-46.3%	31	-43.6%	1-2	-38.0%	32	3.3%	17	-4.9%	28
31	HOU	-57.0%	32	-88.3%	0-3	-23.5%	26	34.1%	32	0.6%	14
32	SF	-57.4%	28	-62.0%	1-3	-38.0%	31	27.7%	31	8.3%	4

FOX RANK represents the FOXSports.com Power Ratings which are 50% 2005 DVOA, 20% 2005 pre-season projection, and 30% a special weighted DVOA for 2004 that includes the playoffs.
ESTIMATED WINS [3] uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. It is based on the number of games a team has played so far, so teams which have not had their bye will appear higher.
PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
VARIANCE [4] measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	FOX RANK	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VARIANCE	RANK
1	CIN	63.9%	4-0	3	3.6	2	-17.9%	30	-5.6%	26	25.7%	17
2	NYG	51.2%	3-1	6	3.7	1	-5.7%	21	0.5%	15	34.7%	13
3	PIT	48.3%	2-1	1	2.3	10	-30.2%	32	1.4%	14	47.0%	7
4	SD	36.2%	2-2	5	3.2	3	15.2%	7	9.3%	4	16.9%	22
5	PHI	35.1%	3-1	2	2.7	7	-5.8%	22	6.3%	9	41.1%	10
6	IND	28.1%	4-0	4	3.2	4	-17.0%	29	-5.3%	24	3.4%	30
7	MIA	26.9%	2-1	12	2.2	12	-7.7%	24	-2.0%	20	11.8%	25
8	ATL	26.2%	3-1	9	2.9	6	4.0%	12	-5.2%	23	20.2%	20
9	SEA	25.3%	2-2	11	2.9	5	2.5%	13	-16.0%	31	28.5%	14
10	TB	22.6%	4-0	7	2.7	8	-29.1%	31	-4.4%	22	20.8%	19
11	CHI	21.2%	1-2	20	1.6	20	6.7%	10	-16.1%	32	88.9%	2
12	DEN	14.7%	3-1	10	2.4	9	19.5%	4	2.0%	13	26.3%	16
13	JAC	8.8%	2-2	16	2.1	14	8.4%	9	-14.7%	30	41.1%	11
14	KC	6.0%	2-2	15	2.2	11	4.4%	11	12.1%	1	10.5%	27
15	OAK	2.1%	1-3	19	2.1	15	9.1%	8	8.1%	5	12.0%	24
16	DAL	1.0%	2-2	17	2.0	17	-7.8%	25	10.9%	3	8.0%	28
	TEAM	TOTAL DVOA	W-L	FOX RANK	ESTIM. WINS	RANK	PAST SCHED	RANK	FUTURE SCHED	RANK	VARIANCE	RANK
17	CLE	-3.1%	1-2	23	1.7	18	17.3%	5	-1.7%	17	2.6%	31
18	CAR	-3.4%	1-2	13	2.2	13	-9.5%	26	-1.9%	18	11.7%	26
19	NE	-5.9%	2-2	8	2.0	16	20.8%	3	3.4%	12	27.6%	15
20	BUF	-11.7%	1-3	14	1.2	21	-6.7%	23	7.7%	7	58.9%	3
21	WAS	-12.0%	3-0	18	1.1	25	15.8%	6	12.1%	2	2.0%	32
22	ARI	-12.9%	1-3	24	1.2	22	-2.1%	19	-9.9%	29	42.9%	9
23	NO	-18.6%	2-2	22	1.6	19	0.8%	15	0.2%	16	47.8%	6
24	STL	-27.6%	2-2	29	1.2	23	-11.7%	28	-5.6%	25	19.1%	21
25	TEN	-27.6%	1-3	28	0.9	28	0.6%	16	-2.0%	19	52.1%	5
26	DET	-31.7%	1-2	27	1.0	26	1.2%	14	-2.3%	21	90.8%	1
27	MIN	-32.7%	1-3	25	0.9	27	23.5%	2	-6.9%	27	46.8%	8
28	NYJ	-34.3%	1-3	21	1.1	24	-1.1%	18	6.0%	10	12.3%	23
29	GB	-40.2%	0-3	30	0.6	30	-3.9%	20	6.6%	8	5.5%	29
30	BAL	-46.3%	1-2	26	0.7	29	-11.3%	27	7.8%	6	21.8%	18
31	HOU	-57.0%	0-3	31	0.2	32	33.5%	1	-7.5%	28	37.5%	12
32	SF	-57.4%	1-3	32	0.3	31	-1.1%	17	3.8%	11	58.2%	4